P.1

QPF verif scores for NCEP and International Models

● 2013 ETS/bias scores for 00-24h and 24-48h forecasts (the two forecast ranges that all datasets have in common) verified over ConUS.

● Models being verified are NCEP's NAM and GFS; Canadian global and regional (CMCGLB/CMC); DWD, ECMWF, JMA, Meteo France (METFR), UKMO. For ease of viewing, the 9 models are divided into two groups, with GFS in common in both (P2)

● Upcoming NAM upgrade: summary of changes/upper-air verif stats (P3, from Eric Rogers); ETS/bias for 2013; quarterly time series comparisons (p4); NAM/NAMX FSS comparisons (p5)

● NAM and GFS quarterly FSS time series, 2003-2013 (P6-7)Courtesy Ying Lin, NCEP/EMC

P.2

QPF Skill Scores over ConUS, Jan – Dec 2013, 1 &2 day fcsts

Eq. Threat Eq. Threat

Bias Bias

GFS,NAM,CMCGLB,CMC,JMA GFS,DWD,ECMWF,METFR,UKMO

1.0

P.3

Physics modifications: ●GWD/mountain-blocking; more

responsive to subgrid-scale terrain

variability●BMJ convection: moister convective

profiles, convection triggers less,

increase 12km bias●RRTM radiation, latest version●Ferrier-Aligo microphysics, tuned to

improve severe storm prediction● Improved snow depth algorithm in

LSM

Changes planned for NAM implementation in Spring 2014Vector Wind RMS (m/s) 12km CONUS

1 Oct 2013 – 15 Jan 2014

Data assimilation modifications:●Hybrid variational-ensemble

analysis with global EnKF●New satellite bias correction

algorithm (same as in FY14 global

upgrade)●Cloud/radar assimilation in NDAS

Ops

Parallel

Day 1 = BlackDay 2 = RedDay 3 = Blue

P.4

NAM vs. NAMX (para) 1/2/3 day forecasts, Jan – Dec 2013

NAM, NAMX(dashed line) 24,48,72h forecasts, 2007-2013

ETS at 0.25”/day

Apr 2012

NAMX: on-going NAM parallel experiment

ETS

Bias

P.5

NAM, NAMX 24+48+72h FSS, 23 Sep 2013 - 17 Feb 2014

5mm/day 10mm/day

25mm/day 50mm/day

5km 300km

P.6

NAM 24,48,72h FSS at 62km scale, 2003-2013

5mm/day 10mm/day

25mm/day 50mm/day

P.7

GFS 24,48,72h FSS at 62km scale, 2003-2013

5mm/day 10mm/day

25mm/day 50mm/day