Development of LCS Scenario in Iskandar Malaysia( project under SATREPS research program)( p j p g )

HO Chin Siong and Janice SimsonFeb 22 2011 JapanFeb 22 2011 Japan

Symposium on Towards Low carbon Society in Asia -Asia LCS Scenario and Actions-

How to achieve sustainable low carbon society?

JST JICA 2011 2015JST‐JICA 2011‐ 2015 Technical Cooperation Project

UTM, IRDA, PTHM and JPBD Malaysia  Kyoto University, Okayama University and  NIES Japan

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

1. BACKGROUND

– Challenges and Issues

– National Vision

2. CASE STUDY‐ ISKANDAR MALAYSIA

h l l– Comprehensive Development Plan 2025

– Modeling output

3. SATREPS PROJECT

– JICA –JST visitJICA  JST visit

– Workshops

Background ‐MALAYSIA

R id b i i d

ISSUES AND CHALLENGESRapid urbanization and industrialization

Relatively high carbon intensity dependence on fossil fuel 

High Private car ownership

Low density development and urban sprawl

Low efficiency appliances

4

1 MALAYSIA CHARTING DEVELOPMENT 1 MALAYSIA CHARTING DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATIONTOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATION

NATIONAL VISION 2010

• The 2011 Budget, with the aim to position Malaysia as a developed and high-income economy with

TOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATIONTOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATION

as a developed and high income economy with inclusive and sustainable development, will continue to ensure that the most conducive socio-economic environment is created through the G t T f ti P (GTP) tGovernment Transformation Programme (GTP) to underpin growth.

The 10The 10thth Malaysia PlanMalaysia Plan Building an environment thatBuilding an environment that enhances Qualityenhances Quality Building an environment that Building an environment that enhances Quality enhances Quality

of Lifeof Life New urbanism and New urbanism and compact citycompact city Growth concentrated in Growth concentrated in urban conurbationurban conurbation Safe city Safe city initiativesinitiativesyy Developing climate resilient growth Developing climate resilient growth policypolicy Adaptation measuresAdaptation measures Mitigation measuresMitigation measures Incentives for Incentives for RE and EERE and EE ImprovingImproving Solid waste managementSolid waste management

55

Improving Improving Solid waste managementSolid waste management Conserving forestConserving forest Reducing Reducing emission to improve air qualityemission to improve air quality

COP 15 – Malaysia’s targetCOP 15  Malaysia s target

• Prime Minster of Malaysia, Y.A.B Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib bin Tun Abdul Razak, in COP15 last year at Copenhagen, Denmark, y p g , ,proposed to reduce CO2emission intensity in Malaysia to 40 per cent by the yearto 40 per cent by the year 2020 compared with its 2005 levels, subject to assistance from developed countries.from developed countries.

COP15 on Dec 17, 2009 at Copenhagen, Denmark

6/9

Copenhagen, Denmark

CURRENT GREEN POLICIES IN MALAYSIA

National Green Technology Policy 2009‐ Energy, Building , Water and waste management and Transportation

Malaysia Budget 2010‐2011

‐ Developing Putrajaya and Cyberjaya as pioneer township inDeveloping Putrajaya and Cyberjaya as pioneer township in green technology

National policy on Climate Change

‐ Roadmap for Malaysia to achieve 40% reduction of GHG emission by 2020emission by 2020

Green Neighborhood Guidelines – JPBD 2010

S t l ti N i hb h d tt d d i G‐Smart location, Neighbourhood pattern and design, Green Infrastructure.

Green Township Framework –Guide Towards LC Cities 2010‐MIP

7

Case studyIskandar Development RegionIskandar Development Region

2,216 km2

Population 1,353,200Population 1,353,200

IskandarDevelopment

Region

Comprehensive Development Plan 2006Comprehensive Development Plan 2006‐‐20252025

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:

Balanced Development

Protect and Conserve Nature, Historic and Open Spaces

Focused Development at Areas with Existing & Adequate Infrastructure

Promote Infill & Redevelopment

Enhance Accessibility

Promote Key Economic Areas as Focal Point For Growth

Manage Regional Growth

Pl f I ti & S t i bl I f t t & UtilitiDownloadable at

Page 9

Plan for Innovative & Sustainable Infrastructure & Utilities

Promote Planned Communities which produce Quality and Sustainable Neighbourhoods

www.iskandarmalaysia.com.my

The Iskandar Malaysia VisionEconomic Growth

“To develop Iskandar Malaysia into a strong and sustainable metropolis of international standing”sustainable metropolis of international standing”

Year 2005 Projected (2025)

GDP (RM) 70 billion 325.5 billion325.5 billion

Year 2005 Projected (2025)

Per capita GDP (RM) 51,765 108,850108,850

Employment 0.610 million 1.428 million1.428 million

10

Population 1.4 million 3.1 million3.1 million

Socio Economic Scenario of IM2005 2025 2025/2005

Population 1,353,200 3,005,815 2.2

No. of households 317,762 751,454 2.4

GDP (mil RM) 37 641 176 224 4 7GDP (mil RM) 37,641 176,224 4.7

GDP per capita (RM/capita) 27,817 58,628 2.1

Gross output (mil RM) 121,431 474,129 3.9

Primary industry (mil RM) 1,860 5,375 2.9

Secondary industry (mil RM) 83 502 263 444 3 2Secondary industry (mil RM) 83,502 263,444 3.2

Tertiary industry (mil RM) 36,069 205,309 5.7

Floor space for commercial (mil m2) 6.8 19.3 2.8

Offices 1.3 1.7 2.9

Shops 5 7 16 3 2 9Shops 5.7 16.3 2.9

Hospitals & Schools 0.6 1.2 2.1

Passenger transport demand (mil p‐km) 3,816 8,677 2.311

Iskandar Malaysia: Geographical Area

SenaiSenai SkudaiSkudai

• Focused Development at 5 Flagships• 2,217 km2 or 550,000 acres• 3 times the size of Singapore• 1 4 million populationSenai Senai –– SkudaiSkudai

(Kulaijaya)(Kulaijaya)

Flagship

• 1.4 million population

Johor BahruJohor Bahru

Flagship

FlagshipFlagship

Eastern Gate Development Eastern Gate Development (Pasir Gudang (Pasir Gudang –– Tanjong Langsat)Tanjong Langsat)NusajayaNusajaya

Johor Bahru Johor Bahru City CentreCity Centre

Western Gate DevelopmentWestern Gate DevelopmentSingapore

Flagship

Western Gate Development Western Gate Development (Port Tanjung Pelepas)(Port Tanjung Pelepas)

Project Progress Update – Flagship A

Upgrading of Komtar(In progress)

Johor Johor BahruBahruCity CentreCity Centre

Artist Impression

Transformation of Johor Bahru  City Centre (Planning) – Sg. Segget clean up

Johor Johor BahruBahruCity CentreCity Centre

Heritage Trail (Completed)

Johor Johor BahruBahruCity CentreCity Centre

Sultan Iskandar Complex Johor Johor BahruBahruCit C tCit C t (Completed) ‐ CIQCity CentreCity Centre

13

Project Progress Update – Flagship B

Kota Iskandar (Completed)NusajayaNusajaya Kota Iskandar  (Completed)

Horizon Hills

Educity

SiLC

Kota Iskandar

Puteri Harbour

Medini

East LedangPuteri Harbour (In progress)NusajayaNusajaya

14Actual Picture

Project Progress Update – Flagship C

• Asia Petroleum HubWestern Gate Western Gate DevelopmentDevelopment

• Port Tanjung PelepasWestern Gate Western Gate DevelopmentDevelopment

March 2009

DevelopmentDevelopment

Source: PTP

•One of the fastest growing container ports in the world

•4 new berths will be added by end 2010 - increasing the port’s capacity by 3.2mn TEUs to 11.2mn TEUs.

15MMC Corp, PTP – expansion

• PTP is ranked 18th world busiest container seaport.

Project Progress Update – Flagship D

Eastern Gate Eastern Gate DevelopmentDevelopment

• Acerinox (Bahru Stainless Sdn Bhd)Construction in progress

Construction siteTanjung Langsat Area

The main component of the Tanjung Langsat development is the 4200 acre Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex developed by Johor Corp It designed

Source: Johor Corp, IRDA 16

Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex developed by Johor Corp. It designed for Light, Medium & Heavy Industries.

Project Progress Update – Flagship E

• Senai International Airport – Airside Development (completed) 

SenaiSenai ‐‐ SkudaiSkudai

Runway extension 446m –100% Completed

• Senai Hi‐Tech ParkSenaiSenai ‐‐ SkudaiSkudai

Source: Senai Airport Terminal Services

• Kulai Cyber CitySenaiSenai ‐‐ SkudaiSkudai

h i l• Johor Premium OutletSenaiSenai ‐‐ SkudaiSkudai

17

LCS scenario study using ExSSE t b g d L b d ti it Labor participation ratioExport by goods

Government expenditure

Investment

Labor productivity Labor participation ratio

Demographic compositionTaxation and

social securityLabor demand Population

Wage IncomeImport ratio

Input coefficient matrix Consumption pattern

IO analysis

Output by industry

Household sizeFloor area per output

Energy service demand d i i f

Consumption

Number of household

Output of commercial

i d tPopulation

Output of manufacturing

i d t

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal share

per driving force

Fuel shareEnergy efficiency

householdindustry

Commercial building floor

area

Freight transport demand

Passenger transport demand

industry

Freight generation per output

Transport distance

CO2 emission factorarea demand demand

Energy demandCarbon sink

18

Modal shareCO2 emission

Methodology developed by Shimada et.al (2006), Gomi et. Al (2007)

Energy Demand By Sector12,000 Freight transport

Energy demand in IM is projected to increase from 1,442 10,000

12,000

Passenger transportIndustry

10,93610,936

232%

p j3,286 ktoe (toe: tonne oil equivalent) in 2005 to 10,936 ktoe in 2025 for the BaU case (BaU: business as usual)

790

8,000

(kto

e) .

y

5 9155 9155 9155 915 (BaU: business as usual)

6,635 253 834

6,000

y de

man

d ( 5,9155,9155,9155,915

Industry is expected to be 6,635 ktoe and will maintain the largest share of 61%. 

3,494359572

2 000

4,000

Ene

rg 3,2863,286

g

240 1,091 649 382

978 6851,733

0

2,000

19

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

12,000 CoalEnergy Demand by Energy Sources

1,84410,000

Hydro power

Solar & wind powerBiomass Increase in demand for

3 854

61

8,000

(kto

e) .

Biomass

Natural gas

Petroleum

Increase in demand for natural gas (3.2 times) the consumption in 2005.

3,854

19333

9646,000

gy d

eman

d

Energy sources such as bi l d

4 9781 209 3,694

447

60289

4,000

Ene

rg biomass, solar and wind power will be newly introduced for primary energy in 2025

1,729

4,978

788

1,209 ,

0

2,000primary energy in 2025 CM case.

02005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

20

GHG Emissions in IM are projected to increase from

GHG Emission By Sector

1 6724,070

45,000

50,000 Freight transport

Passenger transportI d t

45,48445,484 projected to increase from 12,552 ktoe CO2 (2005) to 45,484 ktoe CO2  (2025 BaU)

1,672

35,000

40,000

O2)

.

Industry

Commercial Industry Sector will increase 4.1 times in total

24,83225,000

30,000

ssio

ns (k

tC

19,58919,58919,58919,589

increase 4.1 times in total as compared to 2004 in GHG emission . (54%of total GHG emission in 

)

7 195 10,897

447

1,615

1,481 15,000

20,000

GH

G e

mis

12,55212,552

2025 BaU)

GHG emissions per capital

1,4687,715

2,972 2,419

7,195

3,8026,035

,1,015

,

0

5,000

10,000 GHG emissions per capital : 9.3 tonnes of CO2 /capita (2005) to 15.1 tonnes /capita (2025 BaU ),  with 

21

1,4680

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CMCM will be reduced to 6.5 tonnes of CO2/capita.

Potential Mitigation in IM50,000

5521

623

40,000

45,000

,

)

Transport demand management

tions

10831

777 3510

30,000

35,000

ons

(kt-C

O2) Fuel shifting

Efficiency improvement (buildings)

ssio

n R

educ

t

57%262%

45483

19162

4463 20,000

25,000

ons/

redu

ctio

Efficiency improvement (transport)

Efficiency improvement (industry)

Em

is5 %

52%

12552

19162

5 000

10,000

15,000

GH

G e

mis

sio

Efficiency improvement (power sector)

GHG emissions

0

5,000

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

G

22

BuildingsLow Carbon Cities Policy Package

•Environmental performance standard and evaluation of buildings•Adjustment of tax rate of fixed asset tax•Low interest loans to investment to

ffi i t b ildi

•Environmental performance standard of equipments•Environmental labeling•Education and information service•Green purchasing policy

•Subsidy to introduce photovoltaic power generation system

energy efficient buildingsp g p y

Environmental performance

Transport & Land use Industry•Urban planning•Transport planning•Tax rate adjustment to fixed asset•Investment to public transport

•Environmental performance standard of vehicles•Tax rate adjustment to energy efficient vehicles•Promotion of bio fuel

•Subsidy to investment to energy efficient equipments•Promotion of technology transfer

•Incentive to introduce energy efficient equipments & buildings •Controlling urban growth &

choice of transport mode

Energy efficiency i t

Lowering CO2i t it

Transport d d t l

q p g•Incentive to introduce renewable energy choice of transport mode

Mitigation of GHG emissions from Iskandar Malaysia

improvement intensity demand control

23

Preliminary findings Mitigation Measures

24

SATREPS PROJECT - Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development -

• Project Title: Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions

• Project Period: Five years (2011～2015)

• Project Area: Iskandar Development Region (IM), Malaysia

• Sponsored by JICA (Malaysian side) and JST(Japanese side)

• Total fund supported by JICA : 190 Million JYTotal fund supported by JICA : 190 Million JY

• Project Purpose:Develop Methodology for creating Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios and applied to

Iskandar Development Region (IM), as well as other regions in Malaysia, and the research findings are disseminated to Asian Countries.

25

RESEARCH OUTPUT ANDRESEARCH OUTPUT AND ACTIVITIES

1.Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is et odo ogy to c eate CS sce a os c sappropriate for Malaysia.

2 LCS scenarios are created and utilized for policy2.LCS scenarios are created and utilized for policy development in Iskandar Malaysia (IM).

3.Co-benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling-based society is quantified in IM.

4.Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and Asian countries is prepared and a network for LCS in Asia iscountries is prepared, and a network for LCS in Asia is established.

IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENT AND OUTPUTOUTPUT

RESEARCH PROJECT TIMELINE 2011-2015

Interim project Evaluation• Need substantial input to blueprints etc.• Compiling the the first draft of LCS roadmap 

Final project Evaluation

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ACTIVITY 1: METHODOLOGY

Apply the whole methodology and tools

Revising and ImprovementRevising and Improvement

ACTIVITY 2: IMPLEMENTATION

Design the scenarios and roadmaps

Details for ImplementationI l i R i i d

e project

IMPLEMENTATIONImplementation Revising and

Improvement

ACTIVITY3: AIR & SWM

Detailed basic survey System integration W

rap up

 th

AIR & SWMy g

Manual development

ACTIVITY 4:DISSEMINATION

International Expert Workshop once per yearInternational Training Workshop once per year

W

28

Stage 1Stage 2 Stage 4

Stage 3

LCS Activities in Malaysia…

Expert Talk Held by JPBD KLGuided tour around Putrajaya by PJC 

Meeting with Vice Chancellor of UTM LCS UTM team & Japan team members.

Day 1: AIM Training – participants from Japan, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and Taiwan

Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka (Head of LCS Project – Kyoto U; Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES; Dr. Zainah Ibrahim JPBD R&D; Dr. ... (Executive Director of NIES) and Boyd Joeman IRDA

Members of the LCS IM, Japan Team

LCS UTM Research Workshop – 07 Jan 2011

Env’lEnv’l

Implement Implement Comply . Enforce Comply . Enforce 

i ii i Planning Planning & & MngtMngt

Social & Social & Cultural Cultural DevDev

Com & Com & Industry Industry Planning Planning 

TalentWorkforce;  

LValue‐ CDPCDPFed Fed 

P liP li

Monitor . ReviewMonitor . Review

GreenGreen‐‐

DevDev& Dev& Dev Low carbon lifestyle

added products & services

CDPCDPPolicyPolicy

NPPNPP IRDA’s IRDA’s BPsBPsGreenGreen

focused focused AgendaAgenda

IntegratedIntegratedTransport Transport 

Economic Economic DevDev

BPsBPs

LCSLCSGreen 

Economy

TODs

AgendaAgenda

RE &RE &

Modes Infrastructure Corridors 

Movements

LCSLCSEconomyDPsDPs

SWMSWM

Land Use Land Use PlanningPlanning

RE & RE & ResourcesResources Reuse 

Recycle Reduce Compost

FIT             EE blgs & areas 

Rainwater harvesting

Decarbonising

UD Phased Dev & DC

Decarbonising development/ Development 

Process

Synergy of  LCS research and application in Synergy of  LCS research and application in Iskandar MalaysiaIskandar Malaysia

Actions on the Actions on the Research:Research:

InstitutionsInstitutions

AcademiaAcademia

PolicyPolicy

(IRDA)(IRDA)

ground: ground: 

See and TouchSee and Touch

LCSLCS

BPsBPs

IRDA Blueprints that promote Low Carbon Society

3IM Vision: “A Strong, Sustainable Metropolis of International Standing”

Essential MechanismsEssential Mechanisms

Government: Government: Political Will Political Will 

& & CommitmentCommitment

LCSLCSAwarenessAwareness‐‐Raising & Raising & FundingFunding LCSLCS Public Public 

InvolvementInvolvement

FundingFunding

CapacityCapacityCapacityCapacity‐‐BuildingBuilding

IRDA’s expectations from the LCS ProjectIRDA’s expectations from the LCS Project

H ill th LCS S i h l t d IM’ CO• How will the LCS Scenarios help to reduce IM’s CO2 emissions between 30‐50% by 2025?

• How do we translate the results from the research into policies and proposals that can be implemented? REAL SOLUTIONSimplemented? REAL SOLUTIONS

• How will the results enhance our blueprints? Identify GAPS

•• CDP Review 2015CDP Review 2015

Conclusion

1• LCS Scenario development needs national vision and political/

society commitment and input.

2• The use of model to quantify this vision into quantifiable variables –

AIM model from NIES and Kyoto University2 AIM model from NIES and Kyoto University

D t ll ti d S t f t i d lli i

3• Data collection and Support of experts in modelling exercise –

Capacity building

4• To realize a LCS, IM has to have new and bold policies to

encourage and promote businesses and citizens have to take countermeasures to lower the emissions levels.

37

4 countermeasures to lower the emissions levels.

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION. 

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