ozymandias 2013 aei 1.1
DESCRIPTION
Presentation to the NAR Association Executives Institute meeting of 2013.TRANSCRIPT
ozymandias, 2013
1. renter nation
Renters: +3.6MOwners: -2.8M2010 Census
Why Renter Nation is the New Normal
Basic Math, FY 2012
Tax Revenues$2.469 trillionminus
Interest on Debt $360 billionMandatory
Spending$2.525 trillion
Total$2.885 trillionequals
Shortfall -$416 billion
Discretionary Spending
Discretionary Spending
Federal spending on real estate?
Discretionary Spending
Our Elites Have Lost Faith
“Sustainable Homeownership”
MIDQRMFHAWTF
MID vs. MedicareQRM vs. Social Security
FHA vs. Section 8NAR vs. Public Unions
2.8% turnout rate2.8% turnout rate
Fight with Money?
Source: OpenSecrets.org
“the commission recommends
consideration of further modifications to
federal tax incentives for
homeownership to allow for an increase
in the level of support provided to
affordable rental housing”
let’s not forget our states and cities...
Property Taxes vs. Police Protection
Yes, but... The Fed!
The Fed will own more than a third of the entire mortgage market by 2014...and... two-thirds of the entire bond market with maturity over 5 years
this ride will come to an end
Renter Nation is the New Normal
Ah, but Millennials Are Coming!
2. generation screwed
Sure am Sure am glad I glad I
studied studied Business Business
and Italian and Italian in college!in college!
source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/
40%
NY FED ON STUDENT LOANS
“My debt is crushing my chances of purchasing a home.”
source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/
one of three
pent-up demand?
I can afford rent, but the dream of owning a home has become just as ludicrous as the one where I win the Olympic Gold Medal for figure skating. At 29, I no longer see home ownership as an option. I no longer see anything but renting in my future, and the only possibility is that one day I will be able to rent a home and pretend a little better than I do in this one bedroom apartment.
— Jennie Fernandez, 29Albuquerque, N.M
10 years ago, Steve Jobs, Johnny Cash, and Bob Hope were still alive.
Today, we have no Jobs, no Cash, and no Hope
X X X
What about the ones who are buying?What are they like?
The Elite Professional Class
So what do these elite young professionals
think of real estate agents?
HearItDirect Southern CaliforniaAUDIO #2
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Ah, but... Family Formation!
60 / 40
“In one Manhattan ZIP code, for example, women account for 63 percent of 22-year-olds.”
Really?
Conclusions & Even More Questions:Knowns:
• Government support for real estate simply cannot last• Elites have turned against homeownership• Gen-Y Will Not Save Housing• Real Estate Agent: Loss of Value• REALTORS(R) Can’t Win the Fight Over Pie
Unknowns:
• Will Europe hold up? Will China?• How will new laws, new taxes, & new regulations affect
employment?
Black Swan Events:• Open warfare• Currency Collapse• Zombies
so... what do we do about this?
towards a solution
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Gov. Chris Christie, February 16, 2011
“Our calling for greatness at this time, is to confront these issues, say them out loud, stop playing around, and not waste another minute.”
associations: reality check
#1 reason for joining?Access to the MLS
World Without MLS
crisis of identitycrisis of purpose
consumerist unionist activist
members are buyers
members are workers
members are activists
products and services
income protection
political power
competitorsloss of
franchiseapathy
Three Identities of Associations
few love youmost don’t care about you
some hate you
radical solutions for radical times
political actionpolitical actionpolitical action
old and bustedold and busted
The New Hotness
precinct by precinctempowering the local activist
your greatest asset:
members who are social
average: 190 friendsmedian: 100 friends
grassroots movement
members as precinct captainsleverage social connectionsinfluence homeowners
member
member
consequences:
intend to lose people
smaller, more focused, more engaged
divest non-essential operations
change in governance
If not now, then when?
If not us, then who?- Hillel the Elder
Questions?Comments?
