Overview on impact studies and

relevant ongoing projects on impact and adaptation

within the KLIMAzwei programme in Germany.

K. C. Kersebaum

COST 734

MC Meeting

Poznan

20.-22.5.2007

Leibniz-Centre of Agricultural Landscape Research

Müncheberg

Baden-Württemberg

Brandenburg

Hessen

Federal states of Germany and study areas for climate change impact

INKLIM 2012 study for Hessen http://www.hlug.de/medien/luft/inklim/berichte_II_folgen.htm

Region: Hessen

Topics:

• Analysis climate history

• Regional climate change scenarios

• Impact on ground and surface water

• Agriculture

• Forestry

• Crop phenology (season shift)

• Viticulture

• Orchards

• Nature Conservation

• Health protection

• Soil conservation

• Yield maize, wheat, barley, rape,

sugar beet, pasture (DAYCENT)

• Wine phenology, risks and suitability

for varieties (Huglin Index)

• Phenology of apple, cherries, others

• Risks (drought, hail, frost, etc.)

INKLIM: The crop model concept of DAYCENT

Retention properties of soil

Effect of water stress on ripening (-> harvest index)

Required temperature sum

until ripening

Alcamo et al. 2005

dprecipitationdtemperature

• K.C.Kersebaum

INKLIM: Relative yield changes 2041-2050 compared to reference (1980-2000)IPCC-SRES B2

barley

sugar beet

pasture

rapemaize

wheat

Alcamo et al. 2005

2041-2050 (simulated)

spring

Early and full autumn

summer

spring

1961-1990 (observed)

Late autumn and winter

winter

autumn

summer

INKLIM: Shift of phenological seasons in Hessen – observed and simulated

Total Hessen Hessen – district 348 only

Streitfert et al. 2005

KLARA (Climate Change – Impact – Risk – Adaptation)

Region: Baden-Württemberg

Topics:

• Vulnerability

• Climatic indicators and extremes

• Health

• Agriculture

• Forestry

• Tourism

• Nature Conservation

• Waterway transportation

• Hazards

• Yield maize and wheat (SWIM)

• Apple scrap risk

• Codling moth (Cydia pomonella)

• Wine growing periods (Huglin Index)

KLARA: Average monthly sums of daily infection risk for apple scrabMean and standard deviation of 4 stations at lake Constanz for 1951-2000 and 2001-2055

future period (2001-2055)past period (1951-2000)

Stock et al. 2005

Brandenburg study: Expected changes of temperature and precipitationPeriod 2046-2055 compared to reference period 1951-2000; scenario A1B

Change of precipitation Change of temperature

Gerstengabe et al. 2003

Brandenburg study: Relative changes of yields for maize and wheatPeriod 2040-2050 compared to reference period 1980-1990; scenario A1B

maizeWheat

Relative changes maize (reference = 100) Relative changes wheat (reference = 100)

No dataNo data

Gerstengabe et al. 2003

Summary of all studies on crop yield:

Yields for wheat will change by:-17% for Brandenburg (- 7% with estimated CO2 effect)-10% for Hessen-14% for Baden-Württemberg

Yields for maize will change by+2% for Brandenburg (+8% with estimated CO2 effect)-5% for HessenNo significant change on average for Baden Württemberg

Disadvantages: Crop models are relatively generalCO2 effect is mostly not consideredCO2 effect on water consumtion is generally not considered

klimazwei Research for Climate Protection and Protection from Climate Impacts

a programme of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

With the research programme “klimazwei”, BMBF is bringing implementation-oriented

projects to the forefront of its funding policies.

A total of 39 projects are being funded to develop innovative technologies and

strategies that strengthen our ability to act and secure our competitiveness under

conditions of climate change.

At the core of all these projects are innovative ideas on how to mitigate risks resulting

from climate change and to seize opportunities for society and the economy.

Klimazwei –programme structure

Projects A: Mitigation

• Technics for Emission Reduction

• Logistics

• Environmental Technologies

Projects B: Adaptation

• Regional Networks and Strategies

• Tourism

• Early Warning Systems/Automation

• Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)

• Communication/Mainstreaming

Projects C: Accompanying projects supporting the programme klimazwei

KLARA-Net (www.klara-net.de) is focusing on the establishment of a regional

stakeholder network that works out fields of action and particular measures for

climate change adaptation. Additionally, KLARA-Net is undertaking actions to

raise public awareness in matters of climate change. In the current phase of the

project four working groups (1. Agriculture, Forestry and Winegrowing; 2. Building

Economy, Water Economy and Planning; 3. Health; 4. Tourism) are discussing

and creating adaptation measures for the region Starkenburg/Hesse.

Project “A Region’s Climate Protection and Adaptation Potentials and their

Development – the case study “Chiemgau-Inn-Salzach” aims to mobilise and

focus the innovative development forces of a region with regard to climate

protection and adaptation. 3 phases: 1) conception and building of a regional

strategy as well as a regional network for climate change and adaptation. 2)

Identification and testing of path-breaking model projects. 3) Transfer of regional

experiences gained in the model projects other regions. 3 fields of action: a) Use

of renewable regional energy re-sources, b) water retention and land use as well

as c) mobilisation of the consumers/population.

Agricultural related projects on

Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)

Project “Climate Change Adaptation of Wheat Production in Germany

through Plant Breeding”: The objective is to find cost-effective ways of

adaptation to climate change in the area of plant breeding research. To determine

the pressure of adaptation locally restricted climatic scenarios with a very high

spatial resolution will be used to force a dynamic vegetation model. In this manner

the effect to the crop of wheat will be assessed and effects will be described by

appropriate stress indicators. In a second step, the potential of plant breeding to

develop wheat varieties adapted to climate change will be assessed. The focus is

to develop wheat varieties adapted to the abiotic stress complex heat/drought.

Project KliO (www.agrar.hu-berlin.de/agrarmet/forschung/fp/KliO_html;

Climate Change and Fruit Growing in Germany): The objective of this project

is to investigate the possible regional impacts of climate change on fruit-growing

in Germany. The KliO project intends to develop application relevant strategies for

adaptation and evaluate the impact of these adaptation measures on the sectors

profitability and productivity.

Agricultural related projects on

Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)

Project BatroS “Soil Amelioration and Cultivation Technologies for Arable

Land Exposed to Drought:” (www.batros.de): Lusatia is supposed to be most

affected by increasing risk of droughts during the growing season. The regionally

prevailing nutrient poor sandy substrates reinforce the impacts of drought and

require to adapt the traditional agricultural management practices to the changing

climatic conditions. New amelioration and cultivation technologies to adapt the

existing management systems to water stress or alternative landuse strategies

orienting on the selection of drought tolerant species and mere biomass

production. BAtroS has been launched for testing soil amelioration technologies

which may increase the water storage capacity of soils and, hence, the access of

plants to soil water. The project will apply an alternative approach for testing the

adaptation of selected seeds and crops to drought, considering traditional crops

but also those plant species known to be suitable for maximising phytomass

productivity.

Agricultural related projects on

Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)

LandCaRe2020“Land, Climate and Resources – Foresight and Potentials in

Rural Areas under Regional Climate Change” (funding period 11/2006-

10/2009) deals with effects of regional climate change and weather extremes on

agriculture and water and material fluxes at the landscape level. Tools will be

provided for decision making in agriculture, related industries and environmental

issues in rural areas. Central objective of the project is the development of a

dynamic decision support system (LandCaRe-DSS). The DSS is dynamic

because it allows new model runs with various sets of scenarios and parameters

by the user. 2 regions in eastern Germany (1) the “Uckermark” in the dry lowlands

of Brandenburg and (2) the “Weißeritzkreis” in the humid mountain area of

Saxony are used as model areas. The DSS includes modules for past and future

climate (scenarios and weather statistics), ecology (quantitative indicators for

greenhouse gas emission, natural plant production potentials, biodiversity), and

economy (land-use change, development of farm income and employment, eco-

nomic risks). Integration of the modules is based on a geographic information

system (GIS). Based on FACE experiments, model appoaches and parameters

will be developed to describe effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant

production and water use.

Agricultural related projects on

Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)

„Service Group Adaptation (SGA)“(sga@dkrz.de) supports interdisciplinary

activities with application oriented focus on adaptation to regional Climate

Change. It has been established to provide a common database and

methodological background to the project partners. SGA provides both, simulated

regional model data and climatological observations. To address this task SGA

consists of two parts:

Projects C: Accompanying projects supporting the programme klimazwei

• One has been implemented as a project of the national climate research

service group ‘Model and Data’ at the Max Planck Institute for

Meteorology in Hamburg and provides model data and products.

• The second mission is carried out in close cooperation with the German

Meteorological Service (DWD) in Offenbach and is concerned with

long-term observation data.

Thank you for your attention