www.employment.gov.au

Overview of the South Australian Labour Market

Presenter: Ivan NevilleBranch Manager, Labour Market

Research and Analysis Branch

How is the South Australian labour market performing?Selected indicators over the last year

In line with a softening in labour market conditions at the national level…

• Employment - up by 2,000 (or 0.2 per cent)

• Unemployment - rose by 5,900 (or 11.7 per cent)

• Unemployment rate - 6.5 per cent, up by 0.6 percentage points

• Participation rate - 62.0 per cent, down by 0.1 percentage points

• State Final Demand - increased by 0.6 per cent

• Redundancies - 5,910 announced so far this year (56 per cent State

government)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Jan-

06M

ay-0

6Se

p-06

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-

10M

ay-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-

12M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Internet vacancies in South Australia

Source: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, September 2014.

How does South Australia compare nationally?

Employment ('000)

Unemployment rate (%)

Participation rate (%)

Sep-14Annual change

Sep-14Annual change (% pts)

Sep-14Annual change (% pts)('000) (%)

NSW 3,615.9 31.7 0.9 5.8 0.2 62.9 -0.2

Vic 2,885.8 30.4 1.1 6.7 0.8 64.6 0.1

Qld 2,339.0 14.9 0.6 6.3 0.5 65.5 -0.5

SA 804.9 2.0 0.2 6.5 0.6 62.0 -0.1

WA 1,373.1 39.6 3.0 5.0 0.5 68.4 0.1

Tas 235.9 5.5 2.4 7.4 -0.6 60.7 0.8

NT 129.2 0.8 0.6 4.3 -0.9 72.6 -2.4

ACT 211.9 -0.1 -0.1 4.6 0.4 70.5 -1.1

Australia 11,592.5 121.9 1.1 6.1 0.3 64.5 -0.2

Employment growth by age and genderSouth Australia, Year to September 2014

15-24 25-54 55+ 15-24 25-54 55+Males Females

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

7.6

35.1

11.2 7.4

30.4

8.4

-36.2

43.1

29.2

8.1

77.4

-21.7

Share of total employment (%)

Share of total increase in employment (%)

Composition of employment growth by gender South Australia, Year to September 2014

Males Females Persons-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0 7.0

-3.6

3.4

-7.4

6.0

-1.4-0.4

2.3 2.0

Full-time Part-time Total

Empl

oym

ent g

row

th (‘

000)

The changing nature of industry employment in South Australia

Industry share of employment (%)

16.1

7.0

0.8

4.55.3

10.9

9.1

5.9

1.8

6.7

8.0

14.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Manufacturing Agriculture,Forestry and

Fishing

Mining Professional,Scientific and

Technical Services

Construction Health Care andSocial Assistance

Aug-94 Aug-14

Underemployment rising and above national average

Aug-

1990

Aug-

1992

Aug-

1994

Aug-

1996

Aug-

1998

Aug-

2000

Aug-

2002

Aug-

2004

Aug-

2006

Aug-

2008

Aug-

2010

Aug-

2012

Aug-

2014

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

South Australia Australia

Youth unemployment since the GFCHigher rates across most States and Territories

NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

9.9 9.7

7.4

10.8

6.2

10.5 10.7

6.2

8.8

12.2

14.2 13.714.7

9.7

17.7

9.1

11.2

13.2

Sep-08 Sep-14

Unem

ploy

men

t rat

e (%

)

Youth disengagementStates and Territories, September 2014

NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

7.65.3

8.0 6.8 7.1 6.5

14.9

3.87.0

4.2

4.3

6.05.3 3.9 6.3

4.4

2.6

4.7

Not attending full-time education/unemployed

Not attending full-time education/NILF

Prop

ortio

n (%

) of 1

5-24

yea

r old

s

Unemployed youth less likely to move into employmentProbability of transitioning from unemployment to employment (15-24 year olds)

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

23.0%

25.0%

27.0%

29.0%

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

September 2008

Higher education and VET graduate outcomes weakerEmployment outcomes have weakened since 2008

• In 2013, 71.3% of bachelor degree graduates found full-time employment after graduatingo Lowest level since 1993o Large numbers working in lower

skilled occupations or fewer hours than they would like

• 78.2% of VET graduates found employment in 2013o Down by 4.2% pts since 2008

• The Department of Education projects that in 2017-18, around 30% of bachelor degree graduates will still be seeking full-time employment four months after completing their degree

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Bachelor DegreeGraduates

All VET Graduates Apprentice andTrainee Graduates

Long-term unemployment on the riseLong-term (52+ weeks) and total unemployed persons (‘000) in South Australia

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

30

40

50

60

5

7

9

11

13

15Total unemployment (LHS)

Long-term unemployment (RHS)

Youth share of LTU has increasedBurden of LTU disproportionately felt by 15-24 year olds in South Australia

• 15-24 year olds comprise just 15.8 per cent of the civilian 15+ population, yet make up 27.6 per cent of all long-term unemployed persons

Proportion of civilian (15+) population Proportion of total LTU0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

16.6

22.7

15.8

27.6

Sep-08 Sep-14

Shifts in LTU incidence in recent yearsLong-term unemployment share of total unemployment (%), South Australia

15-24 25-54 55+ 15-24 25-54 55+Males Females

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

9.4

27.328.8

10.7

18.3

32.3

19.1

27.8

30.7

18.0

29.0

19.5

Sep-08 Sep-14

LTU

inci

denc

e (%

)

Unemployed remain so for too longUnemployment duration (weeks) by age group, South Australia

15-24 25-54 55+ All persons0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

30

52

4745

13.2

4.94.2

6.5

Average duration of unemployment (weeks) (LHS) Unemployment rate (%) (RHS)

Regional hotspots

SA4 RegionUnemployment

rate (%)Participation

rate (%)Annual

employment growth (%)

Proportion of 15-64

population in receipt of

income support

Proportion of 15-64

population who have a

Bachelor Degree or

above

Sep-14 Sep-14 Sep-14 Sep-14 Aug-11Adelaide - Central and Hills 3.7 64.4 -0.5 8.3 37.2

Adelaide - North 8.3 61.8 3.6 19.5 14.2

Adelaide - South 6.5 59.8 -7.8 13.9 22.9

Adelaide – West 6.6 65.0 8.6 15.3 22.6Barossa - Yorke - Mid North 5.4 60.4 3.8 19.1 11.0

South Australia - Outback 7.4 59.9 4.9 21.2 11.1South Australia - South East 5.5 60.3 2.0 18.7 10.6

South Australia 6.5 62.0 0.2 15.7 20.7

Labour market outcomes for people with disabilities15-64 year olds, South Australia

With reported disability No reported disability

2012 2009 2003 2012 2009 2003

Share of total employment (%) 10.8% 11.3% 13.3% 89.0% 88.7% 86.7%

Unemployment rate (%) 9.5% 8.3% 9.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.5%

Participation rate (%) 52.6% 54.5% 51.4% 83.2% 83.5% 81.0%

• 21.5 per cent of South Australians live with a disability (18.5 per cent nationally)

• Labour market outcomes remain considerably poorer for people with disabilities

• The number of employed people with a disability has fallen by 3.3 per cent since 2009

Going forward, conditions are expected to remain subdued

A number of downside risks remain to these forecasts:

• Faster than expected withdrawal by Holden and Toyota

• Defence contracts potentially going overseas

• Ongoing business and consumer caution

• Rate and size of fall in mining investment

Economic and labour market forecasts, South Australia

2014-15 2015-16Gross State product (%) 2.25 2.5Employment (%) 1.0 1.25Unemployment rate (%)* 6.7 6.7

Projected employment growth in South Australia- selected industries, five years to November 2018

Source: Department of Employment, 2014 Employment Projections to November 2018.

-5.4

-0.8

1.1

1.7

1.8

2.1

3.1

4.7

6.7

6.7

14.9

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Manufacturing

Mining

Accommodation and Food Services

Administrative and Support Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Public Administration and Safety

Retail Trade

Construction

Education and Training

Health Care and Social Assistance

Conclusion

• Labour market conditions currently subdued• Treasury forecasts and forward indicators

suggest soft labour market outlook• Future labour market challenges– Long-term unemployed– Youth– Ageing population/ declining participation– Mining transition from construction to production phase– Ongoing structural change