overview of the kma's space weather service and r&d...

Overview of the KMA's Space Weather Service and R&D Program

Jiyoung Kim

([email protected])

4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)

Contributors of this presentation:Jinha Lee, Hyesook Lee, Jaehoon Noh, Wonhyeong Yi,

Dong-Hee Lee, Daehyeon Oh, Jaegwang Won, and Hoon Park, who are my colleague of the KMA/NMSC


Outline

Background of KMAs Space Weather Service

Current Status of the Operational Service Monitoring, Models, and Forecasts

Research and Development Activities Operational System Construction Space Weather Payload (KSEM) Development Weather Impact Studies

Space Weather Policy of KMA KSEM Launch, R&D Enhancement, and Partnerships International Collaborations


Background

Why KMA interested in the Space Weather?

Increased needs of space weather information due to the expansion of human activities to the SPACE

More stable operations of the meteorological satellites(current COMS and the following GK-2A)

Climate change study by natural solar forcing as well as solar impacts on terrestrial weather phenomena

[The National Weather Act 14. 2]

KMA has to provide the forecast (including warning) service on various weather- and climate-related impacts due to

physical causes from the SPACE


Operational Space Weather Service

(monitoring, models, and forecast)

Poster Presentation: Wonhyeong Yi et al.


Monitoring

Solar Flares

GOES-Primary: X-ray Flux

Coronal Hole (CH)

SDO AIA: Images in channes of 193 and 211

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

SOHO LASCO2 and LASCO3

Solar Activities

Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)

Solar Wind Speed, Density, and Temperature

ACE was replaced by DSCOVR (as of July 27, 2016)

Interplanetary Space

Geomagnetic Storm and Proton/Electron Flux

Kp Index and Dst Index

Neat-Earth Environment


Operational Monitoring System

Space Weather Monitoring by SDO Images, Radiation and Particle Fluxes


Radiation Dose for each Polar Airway based on KREAM and CARI-6 models

Satellite Operation by Magnetopause Position, Electron and Proton Fluxes


Models

Flare Prediction (AMOS)

Automatic McIntosh-based Occurrence probability of Solar activity

(AMOS)

Input

Flare occurrence probability by each sunspot group

McIntosh sunspot classification

Sunspot area

Sunspot area change

Output

Flare occurrence probability over C class within 24 hours

References

Lee et al., 2012: Solar Flare Occurrence Rate and Probability in Terms of

the Sunspot Classification Supplemented with Sunspot Area and Its

Changes, Solar Physics, 281, 639~650 .

Gallagher et al., 2002: Active-Region Monitoring and Flare Forecasting I. D

ata Processing and First Results, Solar Physics, 209, 171~183.

Solar Proton Event (SPE) Prediction

Input

Flare flux

Flare position

Arrival time of the maximum flare flux

Output

Probability of SPE occurrence (%)

References

Cane et al., 1986: Two classes of solar energetic particle events associated

with impulsive and long-duration soft X-ray flares, Astrophys J, 301, 448~45

9.

Reames, 1999: Particle acceleration at the Sun and in the heliosphere, Spac

e Sci. Rev., 90, 413~491.

Kallenrode, 2003: Current views on impulsive and gradual solar energetic p

article events, J.Phys. G Nucl. Phys, 29, 965~981.


Models

Kp Index Prediction Model

Input

Solar wind dynamic pressure

Velocity

Density

IMF

Output

Predicted Kp index

References

Takahashi et al., 2001: An automated procedur

e for near-real-time Kp estimates, J. Geophys. R

es., 106, 21017~21032.

Wing et al., 2005: Kp forecast models, J. Geoph

ys. Res., 110, A04203, doi:10.1029/2004JA01050

0.

Magnetopause Prediction Model

Input


Velocity

Density

Meridional component of MF (Bz)

Output

Position of magnetopause

Reference

Shue et al. 1998: Magnetopause location under

extreme solar wind conditions, J. Geophys. Res.,

103, A8, 17691~17700.

Dst Index Prediction Model

Input


IMF

Output

Predicted Dst index

References

Burton et al., 1975: An empirical relations

hip between interplanetary conditions and

Dst, J. Geophys. Res., 80, 4204~4214.

Temerin and Li, 2002: A new model for the

prediction of Dst on the basis of the solar

wind, J. Geophys. Res., 107(A12), 1472, doi:1

0.1029/2001JA007532.

Temerin and Li, 2006: Dst model for 1995

2002, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A04221, doi:1

0.1029/2005JA011257.

Wang, C. B., J. K. Chao, and C. H. Lin (2003

), Influence of the solar wind dynamic pres

sure on the decay and injection of the ring

current, J. Geophys. Res., 108(A9), 1341, do

i:10.1029/2003JA009851.


Models

KREAM

Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for aviation route dose

(KREAM)

GEANT4 model+ NRLMSIS00 model

Input

Sunspot Number

GOES Proton Flux

Output

Radiation dose with latitude, longitude and altitude

Reference

Hwang et al., 2015: Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for Nowc

ast of Aviation Radiation Dose, JASS 32, 39~44.

CARI-6M

Input

Predicted Heliocentric Potential (HCP)

Output

Radiation dose

Reference

Hwang et al., 2015: Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for Nowc

ast of Aviation Radiation Dose, JASS 32, 39~44.


For more advanced version of KREAM mode, please refer to HWANG et al. presentation!

Space Weather Alert/Warning

Radio Blackout (R)

Solar Radiation Storm (S)

Geomagnetic Storm (G)

Magnetopause Position (MP)

Criterion : 6.6 (Geostationary Orbit)

Satellite Operation (SO)

Radio Blackout (R)


Radiation Dose for Polar Airways (RD)

Radio Blackout (R)


Geomagnetic Storm (G)

Ionospheric Weather (IW)

G

SO

RDIW

R

SO

RDIW

S

SO

RD

MP

SO

NOAA Scale


1600KST Everyday

1700KST Every Tuesday

When R, S, G are expected to be 3rd level

When R, S, G are expected to be above 4th level

Warning Advisory

Daily FCST

Medium-range FCST


Space Weather Alert/Warning

sample of forecast statement

Space Weather R&D Activities


Space Weather R&D (2014~16)

Space Weather Data Analysis and Application Study

Radiation Dose for Polar Routes and TelecommunicationImpact Study

Development of Space Weather Forecast Models andConstruction of the Integrated Forecast System

Stable Operation of the Integrated Operational Model and Assessment for the Forecast Skill

Operation of the KREAM model with its Service Improvement


Weather and Climate Impact Study of Space Weather Lightning impact study of high speed stream- Detected the enhancement of lightning rate in Korea- Expansion of study area over Northern Hemisphere- More detailed explanation of the physical mechanism

Poster presentation: Dong-Hee Lee et al.

Near real-time estimation of local K-index (Cheongyang)- Basic study for estimating local K-index over Korea- Relationship between Kp index and local K index(C.C. 0.8)- Comparison study of K index with latitudinal station data


Space Weather R&D (2014~16)

Sensors Requirements Application Fields

Particle Detector- Electron energy range : 100keV ~ 2 MeV- Proton energy range : 100keV ~ 20 MeV- Angular Resolution (pitch angle): 60 at least

Global Electron DistributionParticle Distribution

Magnetometer- Measurement range : 64,000nT (in 3 axes)- Field Resolution : 1nT at least (on orbit)

Dst and Kp Prediction

Satellite ChargingMonitor

- Current range: 3pA/cm2

- Measurement Resolution : 0.001pA/cm2Satellite Charging Index

Geo-KOMPSAT-2ATo be launched in 2018

In orbit of 128.2E

Space Weather Payload (KSEM)

Launch/IOT/Ops.Module SetDesign and Review Testing for Launch

OPERATION/SERVICE

ENV TEST TEST/LAUNCH TEST

Launch

PROJECT

START

SYSTEM

REQUIREM

ENT

PRELIMIN

ARY

DESIGN

DETAILED

DESIGNENV TEST

TEST/

LAUNCH TEST

LAUNCH AND

IOT

2014 2015 2016

ENV TEST TEST/LAUNCH TEST

2017 2018

SYSTEM

REQUIREMENT

DESIGNING

MODEL

KSEM Development Milestone

LAUNCH AND

IOT

Poster presentation: Daehyeon Oh et al.

COMS Operation Events

Summary: Temporal disruption of COMS meteorological mission on August 31, 2016(0600UTC~0900UTC)

SEU might be one of reasons (KARI report)

SEU: a change of state or transient induced by an energetic particle such as a cosmic ray or proton

in a device. SEUs are soft errors, and non-destructive. They normally appear as transient pulses in

logic or support circuitry, or as bitflips in memory cells or registers

(Source: http://radhome.gsfc.nasa.gov).

Data Analysis:- GOES data: X-ray flux, Proton Flux(>10Mev), Electron Flux(>2MeV)*- ACE data: IMF, Solar wind data- Ground-based data: Kp index, Dst index- Models: position of magnetopause


Characteristics:

Daily maximum electron flex(>2Mev) over 103 : 4 days continued

34 times since Dec. 2013(33 months). Once a month

SEU event(Aug. 12, 2015)

August 5 ~ 19, 2015

SEU event(Aug. 31, 2016)

August 19 ~ September 2, 2016

Characteristics of Space Weather


SW Impact on Satellite Operation

Internal Charging: >100 keV electron(due to high energy electrons)

Surface Charging: 0~100 keV electron(due to low energy electron)

SEU/Burnout/Latchup: >5MeV proton(due to high energy proton)

Drag Effect (satellite drag due to increase of neutral atmosphere on the satellite orbit)

Although it is not easy to reveal the cause of satellite disruption,

continued research, support and collaboration in the community

are needed (may give a feedback to the spacecraft design)


Successful Operation of Space Weather Payload (KSEM) The first space-borne measurement of space weather in the

geostationary eastern orbit Development of data production, validation, and application

technology

R&D Investment for Improving the SW Service Strengthening the government, academic, and private

partnerships Close and open communication with SW users

International Collaboration with WMO and Others IPT-SWISS(Inter-Program Team on Space Weather Information,

System and Services) Collaborations with Asia and Oceania countries, U.S., and ESA


KMAs Space Weather Policy

To better understand complex system between solar and terrestrial physics, so more close collaborations are needed.

Meteorology

Climate Sciences

Chemistry

Dynamics

Radiative Transfer

Electrodynamics

Plasma Physics

Space Weather


KMAs Space Weather Policy

Space is too wide and deep for us,

and many questions are still waiting for us


Thank you for your attention!

overview of the kma's space weather service and r&d...

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