overview of the floating production sector

Overview of theFloating Production Sector

International Maritime Associates, Inc. — Washington, DC, USA — Tel: 202-333-8501Fax: 202-333-8504 — E-mail: [email protected] — Website: www.imastudies.com

Presentation by James McCaul at the18th Annual Floating Production Systems

Conference and Exhibition

December 1, 2001

The Presentation Will . . .

International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 2 - www.imastudies.com

• Profile the current inventory of floaters

• Characterize the current order backlog

• Identify potential new floater projects

• Describe the longer term outlook for new floaters

154 Floating Production SystemsNow Available


• 15 Tension Leg Platforms

• 38 Production Semis

• 92 FPSO Vessels

• 9 Production Spars

Where Floating Production SystemsAre Now Operating


2

12

19

6

12

1

9

3

19

10

2

1

1 1

12

1

25

1

1914

1

12

9

3

1

15

5 5

Not shown are 4 FPSOs and 2 semis that are off-field and stacked. Units in the GOM include 2 FSOs off Mexico and 1 FSO off Colombia

Geographic Distribution ofProduction Floaters Now Operating


FPSOs Semis

SparsTLPs

No. Europe

West Africa

Brazil

Asia/Pac

Other

21%21%

11%

37%

11%

No. Europe

GOM Asia/Pac

13%

80% 7%GOM 100%

No. Europe

Brazil

Asia/Pac

Other

GOMWest Africa

32%

50%

5%

8%

3%3%

30 Year Growth in Number of FloatersHas Been Impressive


Nu

mb

er

of

Ins

tall e

d U

nit

s

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

0

40

80

120

160

FPSO

Semi

TLP

Spar

as of year end

154

42

16

1

1993 to 2003+ 267%

Over the Past 7 Years 101 Floating Production, 30 Storage Systems Have Been Installed


- - - - - Where Installed - - - - -

7

19

3

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

9

1

9

1

TLPSEM

I

FPSOSPA

RFSO

3

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

1

17

7

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

6

11

3

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

1

119

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

4

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

4 3

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

1

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

The FSO in the GOM is off Mexico

1

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

Area% of

Installations Type

Northern Europe 26% 19 FPSOs, 7 semis

Gulf of Mexico 19% 9 TLPs, 9 spars, 1 semi

West Africa 18% 17 FPSOs, 1 semi

Brazil 17% 11 FPSOs, 6 semis

Asia/Pacific 16% 15 FPSOs, 1 TLP

Other 5% 5 FPSOs


Production Floater InstallationsOver Past 7 Years

Almost 11 MB/D Oil Processing Capacity Now On Floating Production Systems


14.5 mb/dat end 2005

OnOrder

0.1 mb/dat end 1983

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

1.3 mb/dat end 1992

+ 32%10.8 mb/dat end 2003

37 Floating Production Systems and5 Storage Systems are on Order

(as of November 2003)


• 4 TLPs — 2 mini, 2 wellhead

• 25 FPSO Vessels — 12 new, 11 conversions, 2 upgrades

• 4 Production Semis — all new

• 4 Production Spars — all new

• 5 FSOs — 1 new, 4 conversions

Where Floating Production and Storage Systems on Order are to be Installed


1

TLP

FPSOSEM

IFSO

2 24

TLPSEM

I

FPSO

SPAR

6

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

23

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

Not shown is 1 speculative FPSO hull (Aoka Mizu) that has been completed but not yet assigned to a field.

2

10

1

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

4

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

2

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

1

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

1

TLPSEM

I

FPSOFSO

Where to be Installed

% of

Orders Type

West Africa 32% 10 FPSOs, 2 well-TLPs

Gulf of Mexico 22% 2 TLPs, 2 semis, 4 spars

Asia/Pacific 22% 8 FPSOs

Brazil 16% 6 FPSOs

Northern Europe 3% 1 semi

Other 5% 2 FPSO


Production Floaters Now on Order(as of November 2003)

6 Year Trend in Orders forFloating Production Systems

(average order intake per month)


76 Month Average 1.3 Units

Per Month1.00

1.400.750.750.750.40

1.001.50

0.83

2.002.80

2.251.80

0.50

1.500.751.00

Jun-S

ep '9

7

Oct '9

7-Feb

'98

Mar

-Jun '9

8

Jul-O

ct '9

8

Nov '9

8-Feb

'99

Mar

-Jul '

99

Aug-Nov

'99

Dec '9

9-M

ar '0

0

Apr-Sep

'00

Oct '0

0-Ja

n '01

Feb-J

un '01

Jul-O

ct '0

1

Nov '0

1 - M

ar '0

2

Apr-Jul '

02

Aug '02-

Jan '0

3

Feb '0

3-Ju

n '03

Jul '

03-O

ct '0

3

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

87 Floating Production Systems are Planned or Under Study



9

15 6 5 4

1 1

10

6

12 3 11

3

3

10

3

3

W. A

frica

Gulf of M

exic

oBra

zil

SE Asi

a

Austra

lia

No. Euro

pe

China

Canad

a

Other

<3000' water depth

Deepwater 3000'-5000'

Ultra-Deepwater >5000'22% 41%

37%

Projects in the Biddingor Final Design Stage



11

4 3 3 2 1 0 0 1

W. A

frica

Brazil

South

east

Asia

Austral

ia

Gulf

of M

exico

China

Canad

a

No. Euro

pe

Oth

er

Some Near Term Projects . . .


• Akpo

• Agbami

• Kizomba C/D

• Block G

• Usan/Ukot

• Roncador P-54

• Marlim Leste

• Tahiti

• Merganser/Vortex

• Peng Lai 2

Projects Planned or Under Study(as of November 2003)


1412 12

10

64 3

13

Gulf

of M

exico

Brazil

W. A

frica

South

east

Asia

No. Euro

pe

Austral

ia

China

Canad

a

Oth

er

Some Longer Term Projects . . .


• Southern Alaminos Canyon — FPSO/shuttle tanker or production semi/pipeline?

• Block 31 Angola — large FPSO

• Bonga Southwest — large FPSO, maybe joint development with Aparo

• Marlim Sul/Roncador — 3 or 4 additional large FPSOs or semis

• Gehem/Ranggas — TLP/production barge combo, like West Seno

The Long Term Outlook for Floater Orders is Very Favorable


Trend in World Oil andGas Consumption


Source: BP

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

65

75

85

Oil

-- M

i llio

ns

of

B/D

2000

2300

2600

Gas -- B

illion

Cu

bic M

eters

Natural GasConsumption Growing

2.2% Annually

Oil Consumption Growing 1.2 %

Annually

Long Term Oil and Gas Demand


• IEA expects global energy demand to increase at a rate of 1.7% per year over next 30 years

• Oil and natural gas to supply 90% of the increased demand

• Oil consumption is expected to rise at an annual rate of 1.6%

• Gas consumption is expected to double by 2030

Futures Price of Crude($ per bbl)


Futures Price as ofNov. 10, 2003

Futures Price as ofFeb. 14, 2003

Dec '8

6

Dec '8

7

Dec '8

8

Dec '8

9

Dec '9

0

Dec '9

1

Dec '9

2

Dec '9

3

Dec '9

4

Dec '9

5

Dec '9

6

Dec '9

7

Dec '9

8

Dec '9

9

Dec '0

0

Dec '0

1

Dec '0

2

Dec '0

3

Dec '0

4

Dec '0

5

Dec '0

6

Dec '0

7

Dec '0

8

Dec '0

9

0

10

20

30

40$/BBL

Spot Priceof WTI Crude

Source: Wall Street Journal

Our February 2003 Forecast of Requirements for Floating Production Units


Actual Forecast

LowForecast

HighForecast

Nu

mb

er o

f U

ni t

s

197419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0620

0820

09

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

as of year end

**

245

270

This Forecast Would Produce Orders for 62 to 89 FPUs Between 2003-2008


• Composition of orders is expected to be

- 60% FPSOs - 30% spars or TLPs - 10% production semis

• These orders would generate $22 to 31 billion capex

• In February 2004 we will revisit this forecast and extend the forecast period from 2004 to 2009

overview of the floating production sector

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