overview of the floating production sector international maritime associates, inc. — washington,...
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Overview of theFloating Production Sector
International Maritime Associates, Inc. — Washington, DC, USA — Tel: 202-333-8501Fax: 202-333-8504 — E-mail: [email protected] — Website: www.imastudies.com
Presentation by James McCaul at the18th Annual Floating Production Systems
Conference and Exhibition
December 1, 2001
The Presentation Will . . .
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 2 - www.imastudies.com
• Profile the current inventory of floaters
• Characterize the current order backlog
• Identify potential new floater projects
• Describe the longer term outlook for new floaters
154 Floating Production SystemsNow Available
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 3 - www.imastudies.com
• 15 Tension Leg Platforms
• 38 Production Semis
• 92 FPSO Vessels
• 9 Production Spars
Where Floating Production SystemsAre Now Operating
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 4 - www.imastudies.com
2
12
19
6
12
1
9
3
19
10
2
1
1 1
12
1
25
1
1914
1
12
9
3
1
15
5 5
Not shown are 4 FPSOs and 2 semis that are off-field and stacked. Units in the GOM include 2 FSOs off Mexico and 1 FSO off Colombia
Geographic Distribution ofProduction Floaters Now Operating
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 5 - www.imastudies.com
FPSOs Semis
SparsTLPs
No. Europe
West Africa
Brazil
Asia/Pac
Other
21%21%
11%
37%
11%
No. Europe
GOM Asia/Pac
13%
80% 7%GOM 100%
No. Europe
Brazil
Asia/Pac
Other
GOMWest Africa
32%
50%
5%
8%
3%3%
30 Year Growth in Number of FloatersHas Been Impressive
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 6 - www.imastudies.com
Nu
mb
er
of
Ins
tall e
d U
nit
s
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
40
80
120
160
FPSO
Semi
TLP
Spar
as of year end
154
42
16
1
1993 to 2003+ 267%
Over the Past 7 Years 101 Floating Production, 30 Storage Systems Have Been Installed
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 7 - www.imastudies.com
- - - - - Where Installed - - - - -
7
19
3
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
9
1
9
1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOSPA
RFSO
3
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
1
17
7
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
6
11
3
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
1
119
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
4
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
4 3
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
The FSO in the GOM is off Mexico
1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
Area% of
Installations Type
Northern Europe 26% 19 FPSOs, 7 semis
Gulf of Mexico 19% 9 TLPs, 9 spars, 1 semi
West Africa 18% 17 FPSOs, 1 semi
Brazil 17% 11 FPSOs, 6 semis
Asia/Pacific 16% 15 FPSOs, 1 TLP
Other 5% 5 FPSOs
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 8 - www.imastudies.com
Production Floater InstallationsOver Past 7 Years
Almost 11 MB/D Oil Processing Capacity Now On Floating Production Systems
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 9 - www.imastudies.com
14.5 mb/dat end 2005
OnOrder
0.1 mb/dat end 1983
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1.3 mb/dat end 1992
+ 32%10.8 mb/dat end 2003
37 Floating Production Systems and5 Storage Systems are on Order
(as of November 2003)
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 10 - www.imastudies.com
• 4 TLPs — 2 mini, 2 wellhead
• 25 FPSO Vessels — 12 new, 11 conversions, 2 upgrades
• 4 Production Semis — all new
• 4 Production Spars — all new
• 5 FSOs — 1 new, 4 conversions
Where Floating Production and Storage Systems on Order are to be Installed
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 11 - www.imastudies.com
1
TLP
FPSOSEM
IFSO
2 24
TLPSEM
I
FPSO
SPAR
6
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
23
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
Not shown is 1 speculative FPSO hull (Aoka Mizu) that has been completed but not yet assigned to a field.
2
10
1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
4
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
2
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
1
TLPSEM
I
FPSOFSO
Where to be Installed
% of
Orders Type
West Africa 32% 10 FPSOs, 2 well-TLPs
Gulf of Mexico 22% 2 TLPs, 2 semis, 4 spars
Asia/Pacific 22% 8 FPSOs
Brazil 16% 6 FPSOs
Northern Europe 3% 1 semi
Other 5% 2 FPSO
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 12 - www.imastudies.com
Production Floaters Now on Order(as of November 2003)
6 Year Trend in Orders forFloating Production Systems
(average order intake per month)
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 13 - www.imastudies.com
76 Month Average 1.3 Units
Per Month1.00
1.400.750.750.750.40
1.001.50
0.83
2.002.80
2.251.80
0.50
1.500.751.00
Jun-S
ep '9
7
Oct '9
7-Feb
'98
Mar
-Jun '9
8
Jul-O
ct '9
8
Nov '9
8-Feb
'99
Mar
-Jul '
99
Aug-Nov
'99
Dec '9
9-M
ar '0
0
Apr-Sep
'00
Oct '0
0-Ja
n '01
Feb-J
un '01
Jul-O
ct '0
1
Nov '0
1 - M
ar '0
2
Apr-Jul '
02
Aug '02-
Jan '0
3
Feb '0
3-Ju
n '03
Jul '
03-O
ct '0
3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
87 Floating Production Systems are Planned or Under Study
(as of November 2003)
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 14 - www.imastudies.com
9
15 6 5 4
1 1
10
6
12 3 11
3
3
10
3
3
W. A
frica
Gulf of M
exic
oBra
zil
SE Asi
a
Austra
lia
No. Euro
pe
China
Canad
a
Other
<3000' water depth
Deepwater 3000'-5000'
Ultra-Deepwater >5000'22% 41%
37%
Projects in the Biddingor Final Design Stage
(as of November 2003)
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 15 - www.imastudies.com
11
4 3 3 2 1 0 0 1
W. A
frica
Brazil
South
east
Asia
Austral
ia
Gulf
of M
exico
China
Canad
a
No. Euro
pe
Oth
er
Some Near Term Projects . . .
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 16 - www.imastudies.com
• Akpo
• Agbami
• Kizomba C/D
• Block G
• Usan/Ukot
• Roncador P-54
• Marlim Leste
• Tahiti
• Merganser/Vortex
• Peng Lai 2
Projects Planned or Under Study(as of November 2003)
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 17 - www.imastudies.com
1412 12
10
64 3
13
Gulf
of M
exico
Brazil
W. A
frica
South
east
Asia
No. Euro
pe
Austral
ia
China
Canad
a
Oth
er
Some Longer Term Projects . . .
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 18 - www.imastudies.com
• Southern Alaminos Canyon — FPSO/shuttle tanker or production semi/pipeline?
• Block 31 Angola — large FPSO
• Bonga Southwest — large FPSO, maybe joint development with Aparo
• Marlim Sul/Roncador — 3 or 4 additional large FPSOs or semis
• Gehem/Ranggas — TLP/production barge combo, like West Seno
The Long Term Outlook for Floater Orders is Very Favorable
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 19 - www.imastudies.com
Trend in World Oil andGas Consumption
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 20 - www.imastudies.com
Source: BP
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
65
75
85
Oil
-- M
i llio
ns
of
B/D
2000
2300
2600
Gas -- B
illion
Cu
bic M
eters
Natural GasConsumption Growing
2.2% Annually
Oil Consumption Growing 1.2 %
Annually
Long Term Oil and Gas Demand
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 21 - www.imastudies.com
• IEA expects global energy demand to increase at a rate of 1.7% per year over next 30 years
• Oil and natural gas to supply 90% of the increased demand
• Oil consumption is expected to rise at an annual rate of 1.6%
• Gas consumption is expected to double by 2030
Futures Price of Crude($ per bbl)
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 22 - www.imastudies.com
Futures Price as ofNov. 10, 2003
Futures Price as ofFeb. 14, 2003
Dec '8
6
Dec '8
7
Dec '8
8
Dec '8
9
Dec '9
0
Dec '9
1
Dec '9
2
Dec '9
3
Dec '9
4
Dec '9
5
Dec '9
6
Dec '9
7
Dec '9
8
Dec '9
9
Dec '0
0
Dec '0
1
Dec '0
2
Dec '0
3
Dec '0
4
Dec '0
5
Dec '0
6
Dec '0
7
Dec '0
8
Dec '0
9
0
10
20
30
40$/BBL
Spot Priceof WTI Crude
Source: Wall Street Journal
Our February 2003 Forecast of Requirements for Floating Production Units
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 23 - www.imastudies.com
Actual Forecast
LowForecast
HighForecast
Nu
mb
er o
f U
ni t
s
197419
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0620
0820
09
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
as of year end
**
245
270
This Forecast Would Produce Orders for 62 to 89 FPUs Between 2003-2008
International Maritime Associates, Inc. - 24 - www.imastudies.com
• Composition of orders is expected to be
- 60% FPSOs - 30% spars or TLPs - 10% production semis
• These orders would generate $22 to 31 billion capex
• In February 2004 we will revisit this forecast and extend the forecast period from 2004 to 2009