overview of the 12th plan--july 6 presentation by pronab sen
TRANSCRIPT
May 1, 2023The Planning Commission
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PRESENTATION TOSTATE PLANNING BOARDS
FRIDAY, JULY 6, 2012
Overview of the Twelfth PlanPerspectives and
Strategies
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Faster, Sustainable, and More Inclusive Growth
Plan must meet people’s aspirations—as seen from our consultations.
All States want faster growth—unity of purpose.
Quality of growth is important—ethics, equity, efficiency, and sustainability. People are principal agents of development Interests of weak and vulnerable are protected Driven by knowledge and innovation, not
exploitation of natural resources
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Four dimensions of our approach
Developing Capabilities Human Institutional National
Economic growth and inclusion Livelihoods
The Earth and its resources Land Water Energy
Engagement with the world
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Developing human capabilities
Two pre-requisites: Life: IMR, MMR, child sex ratio, malnutrition Personal identity: Aadhar
How to best use the demographic dividend?Education, skill development
Teachers’ training Quality of teaching Enrolment and retention in secondary schools
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Developing human capabilities … 2
Other challengesMalnutrition
Effects on education Effects on health
Migration—linguistic barriersMedical facilities and trained staff, esp. nursesMobile phones to access useful, timely
information.
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Developing institutional capabilities
Capacity building of all arms of the government. Legislature Union Executive State Judiciary PRI/ULB
Delivery of public servicesDispute resolution within governmentImproving regulatory capacities.Reforms that facilitate institutional innovation
and adaptation.
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Developing national capabilities
1) InfrastructureState governments’ capacities to use PPP in
more areas.Power reformsRailway reforms.
2) Science, Technology, and Innovation
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Economic Growth and Inclusion
Unfavorable starting conditions, unlike the Eleventh Plan.
Difficult to grow faster than 8 percent, without being more efficient in our use of resources.
Global and local trade and finance: difficult to rely on large-scale corporate investments to boost growth.
Need a new strategy
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The small business way to faster growth
SME share of total investment expanded even in the crisis.
More attuned to the domestic economy.Need to stimulate new entrepreneurship:
Promotes inclusiveness tooEnable existing SMEs to expand
Capital: DFIs, insurance Human resources Closer policy collaboration between Union and
States
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Building on MGNREGS and NRLM
Foster entrepreneurship—lower cost of failure.Use assets created MGNREGS.More income in rural hands—spark local
entrepreneurship to spend that money.Promote the shift to more productive non-
agricultural growth. States and Panchayats roles are critical
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Expand manufacturing
Expand labor-intensive light manufacturing. Markets Credit Technology Institutional reforms Making clusters more effective
Need better logisticsImproved industrial infrastructureImproving the business regulatory framework
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Stronger financial system
Improving credit to agriculture, SSIs, and infrastructure.
Making insurance more useful and more sustainable—especially for agriculture.
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The earth and its resources
India has the lowest per-capita availability of natural resources—planning must optimize their use.
Increasing agitations on land, water, and forests.
Climate change is accelerating.Soil health is deteriorating—unhealthy
fertilizer use.
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Rational land use
A growing and a wealthier population. Changing nutrition will need changes in cropping
patterns. Trade-off between:
agriculture and industrial/urban forests and minerals—both are national assets
Managing urban land
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Agriculture: rainfed farming
Apply natural resource management to rainfed farming
Focus on many crops and products that reinforce each other—and strengthen the resilience of the land
This needs: Soil productivity Moisture management Seeds Farm mechanization
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Energy: Efficiency plus alternate sources
Coal constraint will remain—improve energy efficiency
Nuclear energy must be promoted—but apprehensions allayed.
Decentralized generation and distribution of energy—to meet rising urban demand.
For rural and semi-urban, integrate existing government schemes to attract private investment.
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Water: efficiency, policy, and institutions
Water use efficiency in agriculture is the poorest in the world.
Need modern laws and policies on water and groundwater
Reduce pollution, through better designed institutions.
Challenges of increasing urbanization.
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Engagement with the world
9 percent GDP growth requires 20 percent export growth.
External borrowings are likely to increase—volatile FDI and FII.
India can command more of the non-traded services market—through migration to other countries.
Use our soft power to strengthen our positionImprove tourist inflowsEngage more with neighboring countries—states
role
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Proposed monitorable targets for 2017
1) Increase Mean Years of Schooling to eight years.2) Create two million additional seats for each age
cohort in higher education aligned to the skill needs of the economy.
3) Reduce IMR to 28 and TFR to 2.1 by the end of the Plan.
4) Reduce malnutrition among children age 0-3 years and anemia among girls and women to half of NGHS-3 levels.
5) Provide electricity to all habitations and reliable power by the end of the Plan.
6) Connect all villages with all-weather roads, and improve the quality of national and state highways.
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Monitorable targets for 2017
7) Real GDP Growth Rate of 8.5 percent.8) Agriculture Growth Rate of 4 percent.9) Manufacturing Growth Rate of 2 percent higher than
GDP Growth rate. 10) Reduce head-count ratio of consumption poverty by
10 percentage points over the immediately preceding estimates.
11) Generate 25 million new work opportunities in the non-agriculture sector.
12) Increase the green cover by 1 million hectares every year.