overview of pv in europe

8/9/2019 Overview of PV in Europe

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The increasing role of Building integrated Photovoltaics Milan, 27th May 2009

Overview of PV in Europe

Daniel Fraile Montoro,

European Photovoltaic Industry Association

Milan, 27th May 2009

The increasing role of Buildingintegrated Photovoltaics


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Outline

Who is EPIA?

Policy framework

Market overview

Competitiveness of PV

Potential of PV in the building sector


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Created in 1985

206 members: 163 full + 43 associates

Represents the whole value chain from Silicon feedstock to

system integrators

Secretariat in Brussels - 16 people in 2009

8 Board members elected for 4 years

Who is EPIA?

EPIA is the world's largest industry associationdevoted to the solar PV electricity market


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What does EPIA do?

EPIA influences key decision makers at national andEU level (Commission, Parliament and Council)

EPIA is a key consultancy and information providerof market, legislation and technology developments

EPIA provides an excellent Networking Platform

through international Conferences, Workshops andworking group meetings


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Outline

Who is EPIA?

Policy framework

Market overview




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EU policy situation

RES Directive: Renewable Energy source Directive

EPBD: Energy Performance of buildings Directive


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Renewable Energy Directive- Key elements -

Binding RES targets

National support schemes safeguarded

Promotion of renewables in buildings

Reduction and simplification of administrative

procedures Security of investment

Approved by the EP in Dec 08 and adopted by the EU Council in April 09


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Renewable Energy Directive- Key elements -

Buildings- MS to introduce measures to increase the use of renewables in the building sector

- Public buildings, should play an exemplary role from 2012 onwards (for ex. zeroenergy standards/roofs used by third parties)

- Requirement to use minimum levels of RES in new buildings + existing buildingssubject to major renovation by 2015 at the latest, where appropriate

Administrative Procedures- authorisation, certification and licensing rules must be objective, transparent,

proportionate and non-discriminatory

- less burdensome and simplified authorisation procedures, including through simplenotification (if allowed) for smaller projects and decentralised RES

Certification schemes or equivalent qualification schemes to become orbe available by end of 2012 for installers


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Renewable Energy Directive-Timeframe-

5 June 2009: Expected publication in the EU official journal

By 30 June 2009: EC to adopt a template for REAPs

By Dec. 2009: MS to publish and notify their forecast document toEC

By 30 June 2010: MS to notify their REAPs to EC

By Dec. 2010 the latest: MS to transpose the whole RES Directiveinto their national legislation


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Energy Performance of Buildings Directive-EPBD-

European ParliamentOutcome of 1st reading, April 2009

All new buildings should be at least net zero energy buildings byDecember 2018, at the latest

Net zero energy buildings= buildings where, as a result of the very high level of

energy efficiency of the building, the overall annual primary energy consumption isequal to or less than the on-site renewable energy production.

Intermediate targets set by MS for the share of net zero energy buildingsin both new and refurbished buildings by 2015 and 2020

Public buildings to play an exemplary role by implementing requirementsthree years earlier

Deletion of exemption of residential buildings used less than 4 months(holiday homes): this is positive


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Energy Performance of Buildings Directive-EPBD-

Timeframe

12 June: Energy Council- Progress Report on EPBD recast

July: Start of the Swedish Presidency of the EU (SW)

December 2009- Expected political agreement under SW


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Outline

Who is EPIA?

Policy framework

Market overview




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Historical development of GlobalCumulative PV power installed per

Region


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Historical development of theGlobal annual PV market per

Region


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Repartition of the Global annualPV market in 2008

TOTAL: 5559 MWp EPIA


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Global annual PV marketOutlook until 2013


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Regional distribution of Global PVmarkets (Policy-Driven scenario)


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European annual PV marketOutlook (Policy-Driven scenario)


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EU Market SituationMarket segments of on-grid PV Systems.

e g: Germany in 2007

Size of the system

Ground

Rooftop

BIPV

mounted

Efforto

fmoun

tin

g

Image: Solarwatt

residential homes 1-10 kWp multi family houses, public + socialbuildings, farms, commercial plants

10-1000 kWp

Image: Solarwatt

Image: Sharp

Image: BP

very large commercial > 1 MWp

Image: Schco

Image: GeosolImage: Geosol

Image: Grammer

40%50%

10%


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Market segmentation Forecastin main EU PV markets in 2009

(by place of installation)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Germany Italy France Spain

Open space

Non-residential

buildings

Residential buildings

Source: EUPD, 2009


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Market segmentation Forecastin main EU PV markets in 2009

(by application)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Germany Italy France Spain

Ground-mouted

BIPV

BAPV

Source: EUPD, 2009


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Outline

Who is EPIA?

Policy framework

Market overview




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Price Experience Curve[Module price/Watt]

$1

$10

$100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative sold volume (MWp)

M

odu

lePrice

(200

6$/Wp

)

Historical Prices

1980

2007

$1.00/W @ >100 GW

c-Si

Polysiliconshortage

$1.00/W @


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Grid Price Parity

ref: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH, Germany

market support programs necessary:

Photovoltaics

Retail prices private

and small business

Large power consuming

industries


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Indicative

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

PV industry Vision3 PV deployment scenarios

in Europe1

GW

p

PV deployment scenarios in Europe1) (GWp)

1) Europe 27, Croatia, Norway and TurkeySources: EPIA, EU DG TREN European Energy and Transport: trends to 2030, update 2007, Eurostat Data Portal,

EU JRC Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, A.T. Kearney analysis

Asymptote without paradigm shift

Possible

evolution after

Paradigm Shift

Scenario 3

Scenario 2

Scenario 1 12%

6%

4%


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Outline

Who is EPIA?

Policy framework

Market overview




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Potential of BIPV

Module and Cell EfficiencyTechnology Thin Film Crystalline

Silicon

(a-Si) (CdTe) CI(G)S a-Si/ Si Dye s.cells

Mono Multi

Cell efficiency

5-7% 8-11% 7-11% 8%

16-22% 14-16%

13-19% 12-15%Moduleefficiency

Area Neededper KW (formodules)

~ 15 m ~ 11m ~ 11m ~12m ~7m ~8m


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Potential of BIPV

Available Roof Surface

Net AvailableSolarSurface

(Km)

Installable PV

Potential

(GW)

EstimatedElectricityproduction

(Twh/year)

ResidentialElectricityconsumption

2006

(TWh/year)

% of PV

Europe

(75%:Germany,France, UK,

Italy, Spain)

3.723

465,4 (8m/Kwp) 511,9

859

59%

161,9 (23m/KWp) 178,1 20%

USA 4.563

570,4 (8m/Kwp) 570,4

1351

42%

198,4(23m/KWp) 198,4 14%

Japan 1.050131,3 (8m/Kwp) 118,1

22951%

45,7 (23m/KWp) 41,1 18%

* Facades not included


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Potential of BIPVDevelopment of Energy-Standards for

Buildings

Source:Archite

kturbroHagema

nn


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Conclusions

New buildings are far from being all energy efficient:

Renovation of the existing stock:

Measures in Energy Efficiency are the aim

Get PV is a real challenge

Economical Crisis affects negatively: New-buildings Growth + PVsystems demand

Future buildings: More (only) electricity dependent

EU legislation supporting large deployment of RES and towardsEnergy Efficiency buildings with RES

Unlimited potential for BIPV in both Space and demand

PV very close to competitiveness with retail electricity prices


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The increasing role of Building integrated Photovoltaics Milan 27th May 2009

Thanks for your attention!

www.epia.org
http://www.epia.org/http://www.epia.org/

overview of pv in europe

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