Overview CARBOOCEAN

EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”

3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany 4-7 December 2007

Anthropogenic pCO2 increase in the atmosphere

Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A

Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica

1700 2000

260

340

Anthropogenic pCO2 increase in the atmosphere

Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A

Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica

1700 2000

260

340

Mauna Loa CO2 record, 50th anniversary!!!

Previous standard IPCC emission scenarios have been to optimistic with respect to human behaviour:

Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007 (gloabl carbon project)

And the related climate projections did not yet include the positive greeenhouse gas feedbacks.

We have to get ready for the next generation of realistic scenarios and include important feedback processes in Earth system models.

Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IPGuiding sustainable

development management

CO2

emmisionsObjective 5:Prediction, future assessment

Initial conditions

Objective 1: Short-term assessment

System dynamics Boundary conditions

Objective 3:Assessment of

Regional EuropeanContribution

Objective 2:Long term

assessment

Objective 4:Assessment of

feedbacks

Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange

Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes

Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales

Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks

Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks

Over-arching activity: Prediction

Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment

Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment

Final W

orkshop

Kick-O

ff Meeting

MonthPhase:

0 19 37 55 60Understanding Nowcast and

Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment

Description

Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic

Hovmüller plots of pCO2 (μatm) (defined as the atmosphere minus sea surface):

Schuster & Watson, JGR, 2007

1990s high

2000s lower

Evolution of oceanic and atmospheric CO2 in the subpolar gyre:

From Corbiere et al (2007) , Tellus + new data 2004-2006

Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic

Air-sea CO2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean!

obs. atm. CO2 + ocean impulse response uptake

constant 1967 forcingdaily NCEP forcing

From:LeQuéré et al., 2007, Science, Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change

Sink decrease inferred from observations and modelling !

Potential alterations in biological cycling of carbon with circulation and pCO2 change:

350 μatm (green) 700 μatm (grey) 1050 μatm (red)Apparent decrease of dis-solved inorganic C with pCO2

Apparent increase of organically bound C with pCO2

Apparent increase of nutrient utilisiation efficiency with pCO2

Mesocosm facilities at Espegrend, Bergen

Mesocosm experiments at differing atmospheric pCO2:”Captering natural ecosystem communities in plastic bags and watching their behavior for changes in forcing under controlled conditions”

Riebesell et al., nature, 2007

“Nowcast” and prediction:

Are current trends temporary?

How to sustain observations?

Are necessary processes well enough represented?

How trustworthy are prognostic models?

What guardrails can we give to policy makers and society in general?

Reducing uncertainties in marine uptakeof anthropogenic CO2:

Can we in fact reduce these uncertainties?

Or are we only “more certain about the uncertainties”?

EGU General Assembly Vienna, Austria, March 2008:Session BG3.1 (co-listed under Biogeosciences, Ocean Sciences, and Climate):

“Reducing uncertainties in the quantification of the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon (CARBOOCEAN)”(Conveners: C. Heinze, D. Bakker, D. Wallace)

What service can we now and in near future give to society? Time is pressing!

OUTREACH & EDUCATION:

IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage.

ASSESSMENT:OUTREACH & EDUCATION:

IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage.

ASSESSMENT:OUTREACH & EDUCATION:

DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical):

IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage.

ASSESSMENT:OUTREACH & EDUCATION:

DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical):

DATA SYNTHESIS:

2007 InfoWorld 100 Award to Alfred Wegener Institute & Center for Marine Environmental Sciences MARUM