overhead 1. overhead 2 facts: international recorded versus locally recorded small hazards
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Overhead 1
Overhead 2
Cambio Climatico: Retos y Oportunidades para losCambio Climatico: Retos y Oportunidades para losPaises en DesarrolloPaises en Desarrollo
Preparado por DR. René Castro
Asesor Tecnico Principal PNUD
Santiago, Chile
Esta presentacion se preparo para el “seminario Regional sobre Cambio ClimaticoEstudios Estrategicos Nacionales” y utiliza datos de una investigacion financiada por
el PNUDDivision America Latina y el Caribe
Marzo 2001
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Facts: International Recorded versus Locally Recorded Small Hazards
NUMBER OF DISASTERS IN THE AMERICAS, ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT SOURCES
1088660
6756
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 IFCR World DisasterReport, 1990-1999
Red Cross, 1971-1995 DesInventar, 1971-1995
Source: Prevencion y Mitigacion de Riesgos en los Paises Andinos, ECHO (DIPECHO)-GTZ
13.2
1.4 2.6
0.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
%
RELACIÓN PÉRDIDA TOTAL VS PIB
Mitch enCentroamérica
Terremoto de México1985
El Niño 1997-1998 enRegión Andina
Huracán Andrew enEstados Unidos
VULNERABILIDAD FRENTE A VULNERABILIDAD FRENTE A DESASTRES NATURALESDESASTRES NATURALES
Fuente: CEPAL, a partir de los estudios realizados entre 1973 y 2000
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FACTS: Extreme Climate Events are FACTS: Extreme Climate Events are increasingincreasing
Impact of Selected Natural Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean
Date Country Type of Event Fatalities Estimated damages (US$ million)
1994 Cuba Hurricane Gordon 7,000 1111998 Argentina Flood 19 2,5001997/98 Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador,
PeruEl Niño 600 7,694
1998 Central America Hurricane Mitch 9,214 6,0081998 Dominican Republic Hurricane Georges 235 2,1931999 Venezuela Flood 30,000 2,000Sources: ECLAC, América Latina y El Caribe: El Impacto de los Desastres Naturales en el Desarrollo, 1972-1999,LC/MEX/L.402; OFDA, Venezuela- Floods, Fact Sheet #10, 1/12/ 2000.The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, 2000
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Summary: One Scenario for Latin America Summary: One Scenario for Latin America and the Caribbean under the Kyoto Protocoland the Caribbean under the Kyoto Protocol
Ex-ante< 1%
Biological 75%-85%
Non-biological25%-15%
Mitigation>$3.5 b/year
Adaptation* >(8.5) b/year
Climate Change
Economic Impact
Ex-post > 99%
*Ref. Adapted from CEPAL 2000
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TOWARDS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY:
ADAPTATION ANDRISK REDUCTION
TRADITIONAL ACTIONS NEW ACTIONS
TYPE OFHAZARD
GEOPHYSICAL(Earthquakes, volcano)HYDROMETEREOLOGICAL (Floods,drought, cyclones)
EXACERBATION OFHYDROMETEREOLOGICALHAZARDS AS A RESULT OFCLIMATE CHANGE
TIME OFACTION
• EX-POST• DISASTER RELIEF
• EX-ANTE• RISK REDUCTION• ENHANCEMENT OF ADAPTIVECAPACITY• DISASTER MITIGATION FORTHE POOREST OF THE POOR
SCOPE OFACTION
LOCAL ANDREGIONAL
LOCALREGIONALGLOBAL
IMPACT LOCAL ANDREGIONAL
LOCALREGIONALGLOBAL
VULNERABILITYREDUCTION
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Example: Carbon price scenarios and its potential Example: Carbon price scenarios and its potential for expansion of the Mesoamerican Biological for expansion of the Mesoamerican Biological
CorridorCorridor
Proposed Maximum Protected $10 $20 $30 $50 $100 $200 land
Area Expansion (000) haLa Amistad 18 88 100 100 100 100 186,201Rincon de la Vieja 0 10 26 76 94 95 12,421Palo Verde 0 33 70 98 98 100 9,302Piedras Blancas 4 4 8 25 65 89 11,537Barra Honda 0 45 45 66 88 100 2,019Guanacaste 1 18 61 91 100 100 32,895Carara 0 11 90 94 95 100 5,349Barbilla 0 18 61 100 100 100 2,604All Areas 10 56 82 93 98 99 262,000
Ref: Castro Salazar, 1999.
Percentage of the Total Area
Price Scenarios
All land costs are based on historical acquisitions. All protected area figures are roundedNote: Each protected area has a different opportunity cost and carbon productivity level.
to the unit, the proposed expansion of the protected areas.
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Guatemala: Providing rural energy services with a fotovoltaic panel (100W)
83,6%
3,0%11,1
10,44,0%
35,1%
21,9%
0,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,0
10,011,012,013,014,015,016,017,018,0
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0% 100,0%
Off-grid population
Monthly payment US$
Willingness to Pay Pay-back of panel
Funding w ith CERs at US$36/tonC
Example: Impact of the Carbon Market on Rural Example: Impact of the Carbon Market on Rural Communities in Central AmericaCommunities in Central America