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Over 40 Years at the World Market

«New Russian initiatives in the nuclear energy and the global nuclear renaissance»

V.A.Smirnov, Director GeneralJSC «Techsnabexport»

October, 17, 2006Australia, Sidney

«New Russian initiatives in the nuclear energy and the global nuclear renaissance»

V.A.Smirnov, Director GeneralJSC «Techsnabexport»

October, 17, 2006Australia, Sidney

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Forecast of the World Nuclear Association of the increase of the installed nuclear capacities in the «leading countries» (excluding Russia) by 2020 according to the upper scenario

Forecast of the World Nuclear Association of the increase of the installed nuclear capacities in the «leading countries» (excluding Russia) by 2020 according to the upper scenario

TENEX

5

6

6

12

14

15

30

19

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Taiwan

France

Canada

India

Korea

USA

Japan

China

GWt (el)

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TENEX

10

44

74

Assessments of potential deficit of electricity generating capacities in Russia

Assessments of potential deficit of electricity generating capacities in Russia

2,2

10

18

4

15

29

11

30

45

6

30

36

1,8

8

16

2,6

7

15

Demand for additional generating capacities in Russia: 2010 – 36 GW2020 – 131 GW2030 – 237 GW

Demand for additional generating capacities in Russia: 2010 – 36 GW2020 – 131 GW2030 – 237 GW

Total demand for new generating capacities by 2030 – more than 300 GWt

Total demand for new generating capacities by 2030 – more than 300 GWt

Decommission of generating capacities by 2030, Gwt45 – economical reasons65 – technical reasons

Decommission of generating capacities by 2030, Gwt45 – economical reasons65 – technical reasons

Eastern region

Central regionMid-Volga region

North-west region

Siberia

UralsNorthern Caucasus

Prognosis for electricity consumption in Russia

2100

1030

1480

1650

2000

1365

1110

1370

1610

1850

950

1200

950

935

1205

1070900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bln

. k

W/h

Rosatom forecast

UES of Russia forecast

Forecast by Energy Strategy

– generating capacities shortage, 2010 – generating capacities shortage, 2020 – generating capacities shortage, 2030

– generating capacities shortage, 2010 – generating capacities shortage, 2020 – generating capacities shortage, 2030

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TENEX

Scenarios for nuclear generating capacities development in RussiaScenarios for nuclear generating capacities development in Russia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Inst

alle

d n

ucl

ear

cap

acit

ies

in R

uss

ia, G

W

16%

22%

25-30 % decision on necessity to introduce 2 GW/year

decision on necessity to introduce 3 GW/year

decision on necessity to introduce 4 GW/year

16%

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TENEX

Kalinin NPP

Beloyarskaya NPP

Yuzhno-uralskaya NPP Volgodonsk NPP

Kursk NPP

Novo-Voronezh NPP

Balakovo NPP

Leningrad-2 NPP

Primorskaya NPP

Dalnevostochnaya NPP

Kola NPP

Severskaya NPPAccepted by UES of Russia

investors

regions

UES of Russia to cover shortages

Perm NPP

Nizhny Novgorod NPP

Kaliningrad NPP

Main parameters of Federal Program “Development of Russia’s Nuclear Energy & Industrial Complex between 2007 and 2010 and  Prospects until  2015”.

Main parameters of Federal Program “Development of Russia’s Nuclear Energy & Industrial Complex between 2007 and 2010 and  Prospects until  2015”.

NPPs’ total installed capacities by 2015: 33GW. Share of nuclear generation will increase up to 18.6 per cent of total.Program is financed as follows: 1, 471.4 bln roubles (US$ 54.5 bln), with a breakdown as follows:• 674.8 bln. roubles (US$ 25 bln.) - federal budget disbursements• 796.6 bln. roubles (US$ 29.5 bln.) – funds by nuclear industry’s organizations  

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TENEX

Nuclear Fuel Cycle requires development to keep pace with NPP rate of constructionNuclear Fuel Cycle requires development to keep pace with NPP rate of construction

miningmining

enrichmentenrichment

fabricationfabrication

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TENEX

DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL FUEL CYCLE INFRASTRUCTURE:DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL FUEL CYCLE INFRASTRUCTURE:

Natural Uranium Natural Uranium

2005 г.2005 г.

Uranium EnrichmentUranium Enrichment

2020 г.2020 г.

demand ~45 mln. SWUsdemand ~45 mln. SWUs demand ~75 mln.SWUsdemand ~75 mln.SWUs

Demand for natural Uranium and SWU are indicated as per WNA, based on upper scenarioDemand for natural Uranium and SWU are indicated as per WNA, based on upper scenario

The increase of uranium primary production is required

The increase of uranium primary production is required

The development of centrifuge capacities is required

The development of centrifuge capacities is required

demand ~65 thousand tonsdemand ~65 thousand tons demand ~103 thousand tonsdemand ~103 thousand tons

2005 г.2005 г. 2020 г.2020 г.

primary production

secondary sources

primary production

secondary sources

gas centrifuge

63 %63 %

37 %37 % 93 %93 %

7%7%

100 %100 %gas diffusion

gas centrifuge

70 %70 %

30 %30 %

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TENEX

TRADE RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED ON RUSSIN URANIUM PRODUCTS :TRADE RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED ON RUSSIN URANIUM PRODUCTS :

• the trade restrictions have been in place in the US and Euroatom countries for more than 15 years•the trade restrictions look ridiculous in the current market situation and they are in conflict with market economy principles• utilities support the elimination of the trade restrictions for Russian uranium products

• the trade restrictions have been in place in the US and Euroatom countries for more than 15 years•the trade restrictions look ridiculous in the current market situation and they are in conflict with market economy principles• utilities support the elimination of the trade restrictions for Russian uranium products

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TENEX

IT IS REQUIRED TO SECURE NUCLEAR

NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME

IT IS REQUIRED TO SECURE NUCLEAR

NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME

Growth of nuclear energy use

Growth of risk for the breach in the non-proliferation

regime

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TENEX

RUSSIAN INITIATIVES TO ESTABLISH AN INTERNATIONAL URANIUM ENRICHMENT CENTER :

RUSSIAN INITIATIVES TO ESTABLISH AN INTERNATIONAL URANIUM ENRICHMENT CENTER :

President of the Russian Federation’s initiative on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, January 25, 2006, St. Petersburg.«… Russia is firmly committed to expanding cooperation on global energy security within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community. One of the priorities in this area is to develop cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy…We need to create the prototype of a global infrastructure that will give all interested countries equal access to nuclear energy, while stressing reliable compliance with the requirements of the non-proliferation regime, of course. ..The creation of a system of international centres providing nuclear fuel cycle services, including enrichment, on a non-discriminatory basis and under the control of the IAEA, could become a key element in developing this new infrastructure…»

President of the Russian Federation’s initiative on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, January 25, 2006, St. Petersburg.«… Russia is firmly committed to expanding cooperation on global energy security within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community. One of the priorities in this area is to develop cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy…We need to create the prototype of a global infrastructure that will give all interested countries equal access to nuclear energy, while stressing reliable compliance with the requirements of the non-proliferation regime, of course. ..The creation of a system of international centres providing nuclear fuel cycle services, including enrichment, on a non-discriminatory basis and under the control of the IAEA, could become a key element in developing this new infrastructure…»

Report delivered by the head of Federal Nuclear Energy Agency, September 19, 2006, Vienna«…The first International Uranium Enrichment Center will be established in the territory of the Russian Federation, in Angarsk…»

Report delivered by the head of Federal Nuclear Energy Agency, September 19, 2006, Vienna«…The first International Uranium Enrichment Center will be established in the territory of the Russian Federation, in Angarsk…»

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TENEX

The followings are required for sustainable and efficient development of nuclear industry: The followings are required for sustainable and efficient development of nuclear industry:

• consolidation of efforts and involvement of all participants on a mutually beneficial basis;• internationalization of nuclear fuel cycle;• secured access for interested countries to nuclear fuel cycle products and services without the breach of non-proliferation regime.

• consolidation of efforts and involvement of all participants on a mutually beneficial basis;• internationalization of nuclear fuel cycle;• secured access for interested countries to nuclear fuel cycle products and services without the breach of non-proliferation regime.

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TENEX

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!