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1 POP 2 INF 3 EMP
GLASSHOUSE MOUNTAINS AND MORETON BAY PROPOSED MORETON BAY RAIL LINK DEVELOPMENT
DAKABIN IS POSITIONED WITHIN PROXIMITY TO AN ABUNDANCE OF LIFESTYLE AMENITY
THE NEIGHBOURING NORTH LAKES RETAIL PRECINCT SERVES A TRADE AREA POPULATION OF CLOSE TO 360,000
DAKABIN IS POSITIONED TO BENEFIT FROM MORE THAN $2 BILLION WORTH OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
Dakabin accommodates all three of the Urbis economics and research fundamentals that make a sustainable suburb – Population, Infrastructure and Employment.
WESTFIELD NORTHLAKES
ACCESSIBILITYMoreton Bay has strong economic fundamentals, expected to promote the future growth of the region / Pg 02
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTSustained infrastructure investment is projected to spur growth in the Dakabin property market / Pg 04
POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSISNearly one quarter of Dakabin residents are aged between 25 and 39 / Pg 05
RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSISThe townhouse and apartment median price has recorded an average annual growth rate of 8.3 per cent since September 2004 / Pg 00
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS Dakabin has historically delivered strong rental return / Pg 00
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JANUARY 2015
A CONTEXT ON BUSINESS, CULTURE, LIFESTYLE AND RESIDENTIAL
OUTLOOK DAKABIN
Strategically positioned within South East Queensland’s Urban Footprint, Dakabin is set to benefit from large-scale infrastructure and economic investment expected to drive its future residential market.
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511 12
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QUT Caboolture Campus6
TAFE Caboolture Campus7
Caboolture Hospital24
BRU
CE H
IGH
WAY
ANZAC AVE
MORETON BAY RAIL LINK (UNDER CONSTRUCTION)
DAKABIN
KALLANGUR
MANGO HILL
CABOOLTURE (15 MINS)
WESTFIELD NORTH LAKES(Stages 1 & 2)
20 CAFES/RESTAURANTS
COLES, KMART, TARGET & MYER
200+ SPECIALTY STORES
3,750 CAR PARKS
WESTFIELD NORTH LAKES(Stage 3)
IKEA & KMART
100+ SPECIALTY STORES
8 CINEMAS
BRISBANE AIRPORT (20 MIN)
BRISBANE CBD (30 MIN)
DakabinTrain Station
20
22
PLANTATION ROAD
The introduction of Mango Hill & Mango Hill East train stations will position the suburb as a central transport hub servicing the Moreton Bay LGA.
As well as increasing by 2,402 new residents annually, the Dakabin catchment is expected to provide 84,183 total jobs by 2031.
Plantation Road ($15.1M) New Bridge• New 4-lane vehicular, bicycle and pedestrian link.
• Travel between Dakabin & North Lakes in under 5 minutes.
• Bruce Highway Overpass providing non-stop connection.
Projected to register a resident population of more than
100,000 in the period to 2031.
2 URBIS MARKET DAKABIN OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
ACCESSIBILITY & LOCATION
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SUNSHINE COAST (40 MIN)
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4
8
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LEGEND
Educ
atio
n
1 Dakabin State School
2 Dakabin State High School
3 North Lakes State School
4 The Lakes College
5 North Pine Christian College
6Queensland University of Technology (QUT) – Redcliffe & Caboolture
7TAFE Campus – Redcliffe & Caboolture
8St. Benedict’s Catholic Primary School
9 Mueller College
10 Grace Lutheran College
Reta
il
11 CostCo - North Lakes
12 Bunnings - North Lakes
13Westfield North Lakes Shopping Centre
14 Masters
Park
15 William Keith Park
16 Barlow Reserve
17 Bob Brock Park
Leisu
re
18 Lake Kurwongbah
19 North Lakes Resort Golf Club
20 Pine Rivers Golf Club
21 Lakeside Motor Racing Circuit
22Pathways Leisure Centre and Swimming Pool
Hea
lth &
E
mpl
oym
ent 23 North Lakes Medical Centre
24 Caboolture Hospital
25 Redcliffe Hospital
26 Corso North Lakes
QUT Redcliffe Campus6
TAFE Redcliffe Campus7
Mueller College9
Grace Lutheran10
Redcliffe Hospital25
Mango HillTrain Station
NORTH LAKES
DECEPTION BAY
REDCLIFFE (20 MINS)
Moreton Bay Rail Link ($1.15B)• 12.6km dual-track rail line between Petrie
& Kippa Ring.
• Removing up to 600 cars from the roads.
• Six new stations expected to be complete by 2016.
Recently named Queensland’s best masterplanned community by the UDIA, North Lakes is home to more than 17,000 residents. At completion North Lakes will offer an estimated 13,000 jobs.
The Dakabin Catchment is well placed to take advantage of large-scale infrastructure and transport projects recently completed or under construction. Proximity to major arterial roads and rail networks highlight the regions connectivity to the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane CBD,
Port of Brisbane, and Domestic and International Airport terminals. A convenient distance to major retail hubs, local health care, sporting facilities and education will support the Dakabin catchment’s ever-increasing demand for residential development.
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS MARKET DAKABIN OUTLOOK 3
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Source: Regions of Australia. Planning, Information and Forecasting Unit (PIFU November 2009).
12,433
DAKABIN, KALLANGUR, MURRUMBA DOWNS29,072
201141,505
2031 Forecast
Per Year (2011-2031)
622New Jobs Created
26,018
GRIFFIN, MANGO HILL, NORTH LAKES16,660
201142,678
2031 Forecast
Per Year (2011-2031)
1,301New Jobs Created
38,451
DAKABIN CATCHMENT
45,7322011
84,1832031 Forecast
Per Year (2011-2031)
1,923New Jobs Created
© URBIS.COM.AU4 URBIS MARKET DAKABIN OUTLOOK
EMPLOYMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
Plantation Road Project ($15.1M)Moreton Bay Regional Council has now completed work on the new $15.1 million Plantation Road project including a significant upgrade to the intersection of Alma Road and Old Gympie Road, Dakabin. The new Plantation Road, a two-lane road with bicycle and a pedestrian pathway either side as well as capacity to expand to four lanes in the future. The upgrade now allows local residents quick access over the M1 to North Lakes in less than five minutes.
Moreton Bay Rail Link ($1.15B)The Moreton Bay Rail Link Project will deliver a 12.6 km dual-track rail line between Petrie and Kippa-Ring, with 6 new rail stations at Kallangur, Murrumba Downs, Mango Hill, Mango Hill East, Rothwell and Kippa-Ring. Work is expected to be complete in 2016. Transport in the Moreton Bay region is heavily geared towards cars. More than half of the region’s population departs the area every
day to travel to work with the majority (83%) using a private vehicle for their journey. The Moreton Bay Rail Link will significantly improve public transport in the area providing an incentive for people to switch from private vehicles to public transport. This will in turn free up capacity on the road network for journeys that can’t be made using public transport.
Westfield North Lakes – Stage Three ($230M)Positioned with direct access to the M1 motorway, Westfield North Lakes serves a trade area population of close to 360,000 people, with a total spending capacity over $4 billion. Stages one and two have been driven by major anchor retailers including Myer, Target, Big W, Coles and Woolworths.The $230 million third stage of Westfield North Lakes will include the development of an Ikea retailer with linked specialty mall (100+ specialty stores), Kmart and 8-screen Event Cinema. Work is expected to begin in 2015.
Centrally located within the Moreton Bay Local Government Area (LGA), Dakabin will directly benefit from the infrastructure investment expected to provide a catalyst for employment growth and residential demand. This economic revival has been spurred by state and local government spending; improving road networks, introduction and upgrade of rail and identification of more than 700 hectares of land earmarked for future enterprise and employment, both industrial and mixed business.
Strong employment growth is projected for the Dakabin catchment. As one of the fastest growing urban centres in Queensland, the Dakabin catchment will increase to 84,183 workers by 2031, averaging an increase of 3.1 per cent, or 1,923 new jobs per annum.
The Dakabin catchment shows a clear concentration of residents working in the Health Care & Social Assistance (13%), attributed to the concentration of hospitals and associated health facilities in the region. A large proportion of residents are also employed within the Retail Trade industries (12.4%) largely due to the concentration of local shopping and retail amenity, particularly within proximity to the Westfield North Lakes precinct. The manufacturing industry also recorded 10.4 per cent for the Dakabin Catchment providing the third highest industry for employment with a number of industrial parks positioned within proximity to highway and rail links.
When compared to the Moreton Bay LGA benchmark, the Dakabin catchment provides specialised employment opportunity for residents employed by Retail Trade and Transport, Postal and Warehousing industries which take advantage of the large scale retail highlighted by Westfield Shopping Centre North Lakes paired with the catchments immediate proximity to the arterial road network.
As new employment opportunities are created, this often leads to new residents as people seek to minimise travel times
and improve work/life balance.
DAKABIN
KALLANGUR
MURRUMBA DOWNS
NORTH LAKES
MANGO HILL
GRIFFIN
INFRASTUCTURE & DEVELOPMENT
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© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS MARKET LOCATION OUTLOOK 5
The Moreton Bay Local Government Area is one of the fastest growing urban areas in Australia.
AGE DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census
Prepared by Urbis; Source:
AGE DISTRIBUTION
The Age Distribution within the Dakabin Catchment has demonstrated a slightly higher portion aged between 20 to 44 years, equating to 38.0 per cent of the population, 5.3 per cent greater than the proportion in the Moreton Bay LGA.
The family characteristics of the Dakabin Catchment illustrate a higher proportion of families without young children than the Moreton Bay LGA benchmark, accounting for 46.0 per cent of the population.
Primary research indicated that a large portion of the rental market was made up of young couple families and couple families with children who consider buying unaffordable. This demographic prefer the more affordable rental offering of serviced townhouse complexes as well as the low maintenance amenity provided within a townhouse community.
POPULATION GROWTH
Prepared by Urbis, Source: ABS Census Data 2011, OESR 2013
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2,402 NEW RESIDENTS PER ANNUM
YEAR
ESTI
MA
TE R
ESID
ENT
POPU
LATI
ON
Dakabin will both directly & indirectly benefit from more than $2 billion worth of infrastructure & local investment
to accommodate the dramatic increase of both local and migratory residents to the area.
POPULATION GROWTH
Between 2006 and 2012, the Dakabin catchment (made up of the suburbs of Dakabin, Kallangur, Murrumba Downs, Griffin, North Lakes and Mango Hill) recorded an average annual population growth of 3,139 residents per annum.
The catchment has continued to attract strong population growth due to Dakabin’s logistical significance as well as its accessibility to the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane CBD, Airports and Australia Trade Coast, which have been key drivers in the residential development that has occurred within the region. Significant road and rail network improvement, paired with a diversified mix of industry has also driven population growth in the region.
This infrastructure, as well as the Dakabin catchments accessible location within proximity to large employment nodes, is expected to contribute to sustained long term population growth. Based on the Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR) 2013 population projections, the Dakabin catchment is anticipated to increase by an average 2,402 new residents per annum to register a resident population of 103,507 by 2031.
MORETON BAY LGA FAMILIES WITHOUT
CHILDREN UNDER 15
37+6337%DAKABIN CATCHMENT
FAMILIES WITHOUT CHILDREN UNDER 15
46+5446%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-55
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
AGE BRACKET
PERC
ENTA
GE
OF
RESI
DEN
TS (%
)
DAKABIN CATCHMENTMORETON BAY LGA
The Dakabin catchment registers are large proportion of residents aged between 25 and 39 years
POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS MARKET DAKABIN OUTLOOK 5
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DAKABIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET KEY STATISTICS September 2014
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData September 2014
MORETON BAY LGA MEDIAN HOUSE SALE PRICE
$410,000
DAKABIN CATCHMENT MEDIAN HOUSE SALE PRICE
$412,250
DAKABIN CATCHMENT MEDIAN TOWNHOUSE
SALE PRICE
$357,000
MORETON BAY LGA MEDIAN TOWNHOUSE
SALE PRICE
$330,000
10 YEAR GROWTH RATE
DAKABIN CATCHMENT— TOWNHOUSE SALES CYCLE September 2014
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData
DAKABIN CATCHMENT MEDIAN SALE PRICE
4.7% p.a.
DAKABIN CATCHMENT RESIDENTIAL MARKET
The Dakabin catchment (comprising of Dakabin, Murrumba Downs, Griffin, Kallangur, North Lakes and Mango Hill) is one of the Moreton Bay LGA’s most active residential regions.
The Dakabin catchment recorded a median townhouse sale price of $357,000 during the September 2014 half year, based on 141 settlements. Despite registering no dramatic median price increase over the last five years, the Dakabin catchment has recorded a significant increase in transactions, generally absorbed quickly as new townhouse developments enter the market.
The Dakabin catchment recorded a median townhouse and apartment sale price of $357,000
during the September 2014 half year.
As the Dakabin catchment welcomes a shifting demographic and buyer profile spurred by large scale private and public investment to the area, an opportunity in the townhouse market exists for diversity of product. Primary research completed by Urbis indicated that larger single and double storey three bedroom and four bedroom townhouse product would be well received by owner occupiers and investors alike.
Premium townhouse product in the Dakabin catchment appears to be limited with a notable gap in the market for higher quality developments. Price premiums are yet to be recorded in great numbers however as higher quality product types increase in the market, so too will the median price within the Dakabin catchment.
Moving forward, the Dakabin townhouse market is positioned to experience further transformation, with a number of new developments to enter the market. In an increasingly competitive market, premium townhouse stock incorporating community amenity (pools, BBQ facilities etc.) and open space will likely benefit residents and visitors alike, meaning to be successful, projects will require this as well as size and quality of build in order to engage the market.
6 URBIS MARKET DAKABIN OUTLOOK© URBIS.COM.AU
RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS
$357,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
0
50
100
150
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250
2004
SEP
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2005
SEP
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R
2006
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R
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R
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R
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R
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SEP
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MA
R
2011
SEP
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MA
R
2012
SEP
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MA
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SEP
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MA
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2014
SEP
MED
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SA
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NU
MBE
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HALF YEAR PERIOD
NUMBER OF SALESMEDIAN
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DAKABIN CATCHMENT RENTAL MARKET
DAKABIN CATCHMENT - TOWNHOUSE RENTAL ASSESSMENT
DAKABIN CATCHMENT RENTAL MARKET
Dakabin’s townhouse market is providing a sound investment platform driven by demand for new multi-unit dwelling product. According to the Residential Tenancy Authority (RTA) at the quarter ending September 2014, the Dakabin catchment had recorded a 1.5 per cent premium in median weekly rental price compared to the Moreton Bay LGA benchmark for a typical three bedroom townhouse.
Similar to the townhouse median price sales cycle over the last three years since the period ending September 2012, Dakabin’s median weekly rental price has too remained stable. This has brought about consistent rental yields of approximately 5.0 per cent for a typical townhouse within the Dakabin catchment. As a result, the proportion of Dakabin rentals within the Moreton Bay LGA have increased with the total number of bonds lodged shifting 12 per cent since September 2012, now registering one-third of all bonds lodged within the Moreton Bay LGA.
When observing the on-the-market rental rates, the Dakabin catchment has largely displayed a tight rental price ranging between $330 and $350 per week for three bedroom product, with the highest recorded weekly rent for comparable townhouse product registering just shy of $400 per week. The secondary market opportunity for four bedroom townhouse product is being realised with on-the-market weekly rentals yielding between $375 and $405 per week.
Research completed by Urbis indicated that higher rental premiums are demanded for newly constructed products. Also highlighting that greater rental premiums are dependent on location, quality of build and size, with furnished stock achieving additional premiums over unfurnished stock.
Over the past three years, Dakabin has registered a solid rental market which has delivered strong rental return on investment with minimal price fluctuation, limiting risk. This assurance, paired with the large scale infrastructure, retail amenity investment and population growth positions Dakabin to become a key region in accommodating the increasing demand for townhouse product in the Moreton Bay LGA.
$355AVERAGE WEEKLY RENT$350ADVERTISED MIN. RENT
new build
$385ADVERTISED MAX. RENT
322
$342AVERAGE WEEKLY RENT$335ADVERTISED MIN. RENT
near new
$350ADVERTISED MAX. RENT
322
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Realestate.com, Urbis
At September 2014 the Dakabin catchment recorded one-third of the Moreton Bay LGA
rental market.
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RTA, Urbis
PROPORTION OF MORETON BAY LGA
RENTAL MARKET
$335DAKABIN CATCHMENT$335MORETON BAY LGA
Sept 2013 29+7129%
DAKABIN CATCHMENT
MORETON BAY LGA
Sept 2012 20+8020%$335$320
DAKABIN CATCHMENT
MORETON BAY LGA
Sept 2014 33+6733%$340$335
© URBIS.COM.AUURBIS MARKET DAKABIN OUTLOOK 7
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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Brisbane Level 7, 123 Albert St Brisbane QLD 4000
07 3007 3800
This publication is prepared on the instruction of Partners in Property and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effect to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by know or unknown risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Partners in Property and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers. / BPE0834