outline economic growth vs. biodiversity conservation biodiversity conservation and human welfare...
TRANSCRIPT
Outline
• Economic growth vs. biodiversity conservation
• Biodiversity conservation and human welfare
• Technological progress
• Iron triangle
• Steady State Revolution
Endangerment Causes
Urbanization
Agriculture
Water diversions (e.g., reservoirs)
Recreation, tourism development
Pollution
Domestic livestock, ranching
247
205
160
148
143
136
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Causes (cont.)
Mineral, gas, oil extraction
Non-native species
Harvest
Modified fire regimes
Road construction/maintenance
Industrial development
134
115
101
83
83
81
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Economic Growth
• an increase in the production and
consumption of goods and services
• typically expressed in terms of GDP
• facilitated by increasing:
–population
–per capita consumption
Time
GD
PK
Natural capital allocated to human economy
Natural capital allocated to economy of nature
PDF files for these articles available at The Wildlife Society website: www.wildlife.org
ESA Listings and GDP
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1973 1980 1990 2001
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
R2 = 98.4
K
Carrying Capacity ScenariosIn
divi
dual
s
Time
r-selection
K-selection
K and r-selected Species
K
Economic Carrying CapacityG
DP
Time
r-selection
K-selection
K and r-selected Economies
American GNP, 1929-1997
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
K
Biodiversity Conservation andSteady State Economy
GD
P
Time
...maintain steady state economy below K.
To conserve biodiversity ...
Biodiverse Goods
• Food
• Fiber
• Medicine
• Genetic stocks
• Experimental subjects
Biodiverse Services
• Atmospheric regulation
• Water provision and purification
• Pollination
• Waste disposal
• Aesthetic pleasure
How important is biodiversity?
• Pending paper by Costanza et al. will
estimate value of world’s biodiversity at $6
trillion dollars per annum; ~ one sixth GGP
• Key component of natural capital
• Natural capital the foundation of economic
security
GG
P
K
Human economy
Economy of nature
We Might Ask
Technological Progress
•Vernacular: invention, innovation
•Technical: increasing productive
efficiency resulting from invention
and innovation
KTGDPNatural capital allocated to human economy
Natural capital allocated to non-human economy
X natural capital allocable
Time
KU
X/2 conserved K1
K2
GDP
Time
X natural capital allocable KU
Economic growth with technology level 2
Economic growth with technology level 1
Consider the Sources
• Research and development
• Corporate profit
• Economies of scale
K1
K2
GDP
Time
X/2 natural capital allocableKU
X/2 converted
Economic growth with technology level 2
Economic growth with technology level 1
The Great Debate: Is There a Limit?
“Yes”
• Physiocrats
• Classical economists
• Ecological economists
• Ecologists
“No”
• Neoclassical economists
• Corporations
• Politicians
=$
$
$$
The “Information Economy”
• What is the information used for?
• How does one come to afford the information?
And yet we hear:
“Some people just don’t get it.
There is no conflict between
economic growth and
environmental protection!”
Why do they persist?
Goals• Replace national goal of “economic
growth” with national goal of steady state economy.
• Replace bloating economy with steady state economy.
Revolutions
• Magnitude of change
• Pace of change
• “When evolution won’t cut it”
• Evolution combined with revolt
Steady State Revolution
• Academic, social
• Peaceable, not pacifistic
• Models–abolition of child labor
–reduction of smoking
Academic Phase
• Replacement of neoclassical
economic growth theory
• Refocusing of curricula
• More public outreach
Social Phase• “Economic growth” reconstructed
as economic bloating
• Dollar spent is dollar burned
• Castigation of the liquidating class
Class Structure of the Steady State Revolution
• Liquidating class
• Steady state class
• Amorphic class
Percentile: 80 99 100
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Percentile: 80 99 100
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Percentile: 80 99 100
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Percentile: 80 99 100
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Liquidators
Steady Staters
Amorphs
Amorphic Class
Steady State Class
Liquidating Class
Amorphic Class
Liquidating Class
Steady State Class
Economic Rationale
• “Trickle-down consumption”
• Redistribution of wealth compensates for reduced per capita consumption
• Reduction of waste
• Leads toward steady state economy
Liquidators
Amorphs
Ecological Capacity
PovertyLineSome Steady Staters
Most Steady Staters
Liquidators
Amorphs Liquidators
Amorphs
Steady Staters
Ecological Capacity
PovertyLineSome Steady Staters
Most Steady Staters
Political Rationale
• No “everyone revolt against everybody”
• Taps into predisposition
• Readily identifiable classes
Psychological Rationale
• Darwin, Veblen, Maslow
• Cure for “liquidator syndrome”
• Ratcheting effect toward
sustainable ideology
Maslow’s Hierarchy 1) Food
2) Security
3) Love, affection, reproduction
4) Self-esteem
5) Self-actualization
Sociopolitical Rationale
• Ideological horse before the public
policy cart
• Supplementary to policy
prescriptions
• Replaces politicians, not system
Ethics I • Equity (current, intergenerational)
• Consistent with religions: Buddhist,
Christian, Hindu, Islamic, Judaic
• “Devil in the details” of castigation
• Tolerance overrated
Ethics II• “Why do they hate Americans?”
– It’s the economy, stupid!
– Conspicuous consumption not everything, but
major thing
• SSR beats violent alternatives
• “Speaking truth to power”
K
GD
P
Time