outer planets assessment group (opag) report to pss · explore outer planets and ocean worlds...
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OuterSolarSystem:ManyWorldstoExplore
OuterPlanetsAssessmentGroup(OPAG)Reportto
PSSSeptember2016AlfredMcEwen
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MajorOPAGChallenge
• HowtokeepouterSolarSystemsciencevibrantthroughtheDecadeofDarkness– NospacecraftdatafromOuter
PlanetsbetweenendofCassiniandJuno(2018)andarrivalofEuropamission
– ~10yeargapdependingonwhentheEuropamissionarrives
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OPAGCharterandMeetingsExploreOuterPlanetsandOceanWorlds
Charter:• OPAGregularlyevaluatesouterSolarSystemexplorationgoals,objectives,investigationsandrequiredmeasurementsonthebasisofthewidestpossiblecommunityoutreach.Thegroupassemblestwiceperyeartoassessthecurrentstateofoutersolarsystemexploration,goalsforfutureexploration,andtechnologydevelopmentneededtoachievethosegoals.
Meetings:• ThemostrecentOPAGmeetingwasAugust11-12inFlagstaff,AZ• In2017wewillhaveawintermeetinginAtlantainlateFeb,thententativelymeetatScrippsInstituteofOceanography,SanDiego,inlateAugust.
• Nextslides:OPAGfindingsfromAug2016meeting–InorderofimportancetoPSS
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EuropaLander• TheEuropaLanderSDTchairspresentedaprogressreportontheiractivities
– CurtNieburinvitedOPAGtocommentonthispresentation.• Ambitiousscienceobjectivescompinedwithveryconstrainedresources• Draftsciencegoalsinclude:
– (1)SearchforevidenceoflifeonEuropa(with5investigations)– (2)AssessthehabitabilityofEuropaviainsitutechniquesuniquelyavailabletoalandermission(3
investigations)– (3)Characterizesurfacepropertiesatthescaleofthelandertosupportfutureexploration(3
investigations).• Expectedresources,comparabletoPhilae,include:
– Landerpayloadof35kg– Totalmissionenergyof2500W-hr– 20-daysurfacelifetime
• OPAGisconcernedthatsomeofthecurrentdraftmissionobjectivesarehigh-risk,andthemissionwouldbeperceivedasafailureinaneventofnon-detectionoflife.
• OPAGfullysupportstheCOLDTechprogramtoaddresstheseconcerns– Tobeeffective,thiseffortneedstobecompletedpriortoreleaseofanAOforflightinstruments.
• OPAGFinding:WeareconcernedthatresourcesavailablefortheEuropaLandermissionmaynotbesufficienttoachievetheambitiousobjectivestosearchforlifeonEuropa.Werecommendthatmissionobjectivesbestructuredsothatthemissionwouldnotbecharacterizedasfailureinaneventofanon-detectionoflife.OPAGalsorecommendsthat,priortothereleaseofalanderinstrumentAO,potentialproposersaregivensufficienttimeandresourcestodevelopappropriatetechnologiestoaddresstheinvestigationstobedefinedintheSDTreport.
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IoMissionStudyfornextDecadalSurvey• NewmissionstudiesacrosstheSolarSystemareneededtoinformthenext
DecadalSurvey.• MissionstoJupiterandicyGalileansatellitesareunderway,missionstoSaturnare
partofNF-4competition,andIceGiantMissionSDTstudyisnearcompletion.– Ioisthemostneglectedofthehigh-priorityexplorationtargetsinouterSolarSystem
• AnIoObserverwaslistedbythe2003DecadalSurveyasaDeferredHigh-prioritymission,andbythe2013DecadalSurveyasoneofsevenhigh-prioritymedium-classmissioncandidates.
• VisionandVoyagesrecommendedanIoObserverforinclusionamongthecandidatesfortheNewFrontiers5.– SincetheNF-4AOisonlybeingreleasedin2017,itisunlikelythatNF-5willbesolicited
before2023.• IoObserver,is,therefore,atopOPAGpriorityforthenextDecadalSurveyanda
missionstudyisanimportantpreliminarystep.• Therehavebeensignificantrecentadvancesintechnologyandscientific
understandingrelevanttoIodrivenbytheEuropaClipperandJunomissions.
• OPAGFinding: OPAGurgesNASAPSDtoconveneanIoObserverScienceDefinitionTeam(SDT)tosteeracomprehensivemissionconceptstudy.
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ResponsestoNewFrontiers4DraftAO• OPAGapplaudsprogressonNF-4,andwasgenerallypositiveaboutthedraftAO.
• MMRTGs areavailableforNF-4,butthelossofpowerovertimemakesthemoflimitedvalueforthethreeNF-4missioncandidatestoSaturn.
• DevelopmentoftheeMMRTGiscomingalong,butslowly.Inordertobereadyfortheupcomingmissionsthereneedstobemoreofasenseofurgencyinpursuingthistarget.
• OPAGFinding:eMMRTGareanenablingtechnologyfortheouterSolarSystemandweencouragethembeingreadyandavailableassoonaspossible.WearedisappointedthattheyarenotexpectedtobereadyfortheNF-4AO.
• LaunchexpenseswithRPS:Allspacecraftmusthaveapowersystemwithcostsincludedinthepriceofthemission.
• Thereareextracostsassociatedwithflyingradioisotopepower– theadditionallaunchservicecosts.– InthedraftversionoftheNewFrontiersAOthesearecountedagainstthetotalmissioncost.
• OPAGFinding: OPAGsuggeststhat,inordertoleveltheplayingfieldformissionstochallenginglocations,costsassociatedwithNEPAandlaunchservice/approvalnotbecountedagainstthePImissioncostcap.
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Roadmap(s)toOceanWorlds• OPAGthankstheROWcommittee,ledbyTerryHurfordandAmandaHendrix,for
theirongoingwork,andlooksforwardtotheirreportattheendoftheyear.• Thegoalofthisstudyistodefinealong-termprogramtounderstandoceanworlds
andsearchforlifebeyondEarth.• Preliminaryfindings:
– Existing(ornew)R&AinvestmentsshouldsupportfundamentalresearchvitaltoOceanWorldexploration...
– R&AinvestmentstosupportmaturationofinstrumentsandtechnologiesvitaltoOceanWorldexplorationshouldbuildontheaugmentationoffundingtoPICASSO,MATISSEandtheCOLDTechprograms.
– Efficient,capable,robustenergysourcesandfrequentlaunchcapabilityarecriticalforsupportingahealthyOceanWorldsexplorationprogram.
• OPAGFinding: TheOceanWorldsinitiativehasgreatpromiseforSolarSystemscience.Foritssuccess,investmentmustbecontinuedoraugmentedinrelatedfundamentalresearch,instrumentsandtechnologies,powersources,andlaunchcapabilities.
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Research&Analysis• OPAGthanksJaredLeisner(NASAHQconsultant)forpresentingdataaboutthe
effectsofR&ArestructuringonOPAG-relevantfunding.• Overall,thereisnoclearevidencefordeclineinabsolutefundinglevels.• OPAGhasseveralresidualconcerns:
– Big,omnibusprogramssuchasSSWarelesstransparent– OPAGisconcernedthatfundamentalresearchisdiminished– ThenewR&Astructuremayexcludegoodproposalswithitsspecificity.Forexample,Cassinidata
analysishasahomeinCDAPS,JunodatawillbeintheNewFrontiersDAP,butitisnotclearwherecomparativedataanalysisacrossthetwoprojectshasahome.SSWdoesnotfunddataanalysiscoveredbyotherprograms,andsosomeprojectsmayfallthroughthecracks,orresearchersmaynotapply.
• OPAGFinding: Wehopethatthenewkeywordanalysiswilladdressconcernsaboutthelackoftransparencyinthenew,largeR&Aprograms.WeencouragethePSStodiscusswhatkeywordswouldbemostusefultotheentireplanetarysciencecommunity,includingtargetandtypeofresearch.OPAGrequeststhatNASAreleasethetotalbudgetineachofthedifferentR&Aprogramsinordertoenabletransparencyinthefundingofdifferenttypesofresearch,includingfundamentalresearch.Further,werequestthatPSDcontinuetoactivelyconsiderwhethertherearegapswithinthenewR&Astructurethatprecludethesubmissionandacceptanceofgoodproposals.
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TheLegacyofCassiniandCassiniDataAnalysisProgram(CDAP)Finding:TheCDAPprogramhasbeenincrediblysuccessfulinfundinganalysisandmodelingofthewealthofdatacollectedbyCassini.Continuation,andpossiblyaugmentation,ofCDAPwillhelptobridgethelargegapbeforethenextouterSolarSystemmissionandensurethataknowledgeablecadreofouterplanetscientistswillbereadytoanalyzedatafromtheEuropamission,aswellasotherfutureouterplanetmissions.WeexpectthattheremaybeanincreaseinthenumberofCDAPproposalsoncetheCassinimissionends.WerequestthatNASAfollowthesubmissionrateandaugmentthebudgetiftheproposalrateincreasesafterCassini.
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IceGiantmissionstudyforthenextDecadalSurvey
Finding:OPAGispleasedwiththeprogressbeingmadebyIceGiantpre-decadalmissionstudy,notesthathigh-science-returnideasareemerging,andlooksforwardtohavingthecompletereportatournextmeeting.
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ParticipatingScientists• Finding:ParticipatingScientistprogramsprovideparticularlyhighvaluetoNASAandtothescientificcommunity,andshouldbeastandardfeatureoffuturemissions.OPAGrequeststhatNASAbeguidedbyrecommendationsinthewhitepaperthatresultsfromthistaskforce.
JunoMission•Finding:OPAGcongratulatestheJunomissionforitssuccessfulJupiterOrbitInsertion,andwelookforwardtotheresultsfromthescienceorbits.WearedisappointedthattheParticipatingScientistProgramdidnotmaterializeforJuno,andweencouragePSDtooffersuchopportunitiesforfuturemissions.