our insights. your story. - corelogic › sites › default › files › 2019-04...as at the end of...

Our Insights.

Your Story.

Property market chart pack

April 2019

Our Insights. Your Story. © 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 2

Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth

As at the end of March 2019

Residential Real Estate

$6.3 Trillion

Australian Superannuation

$2.7 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$1.9 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$970 Billion

10.2 millionNumber of dwellings

$1.81 trillionOutstanding mortgage

debt

446,631Total sales

p.a.

$267.8 billionGross value of

sales p.a.

50.5%Household

wealth held in

housing

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ASX

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story.

-3.2%

-3.4%

-1.1%

-0.5%

-2.9%

1.2%

-3.9%

0.0%

-1.5%

-0.6%

-0.5%

0.2%

-3.3%

0.8%

2.0%

-2.7%

-1.0%

-2.3%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Regional NSW

Regional Vic

Regional Qld

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional Tas

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Mar-91 Mar-98 Mar-05 Mar-12 Mar-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

The quarterly rate of decline has eased with declines similar to those in the 2008 downturn

3

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Mar-19


-10.9%

-9.8%

-1.3%

0.8%

-7.7%

6.0%

-6.8%

3.1%

-3.6%

2.6%

-1.6%

-0.2%

-9.5%

7.2%

-2.2%

-8.2%

-2.1%

-6.9%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Regional NSW

Regional Vic

Regional Qld

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional Tas

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Mar-84 Mar-91 Mar-98 Mar-05 Mar-12 Mar-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

The annual rate of decline in values has increased and is now deeper than during the GFC

4

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Mar-19


-10.9%-9.8%

-1.3%0.8%

-7.7%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth

6.0%

-6.8%

3.1%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Hobart Darwin Canberra

Although not all capital cities are recording value declines, the annual rate of change is slowing across the board

5

Source: CoreLogic


-0.3%

-1.4%

-1.9%

-2.9%

-3.5%

-4.6%

-5.8%

-6.8%

-8.7%

-11.8%

-2.9%

-3.0%

-3.8%

-4.2%

-5.5%

-6.4%

-7.2%

-8.5%

-10.4%

-12.3%

0.7%

0.3%

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.4%

-0.9%

-1.8%

-2.5%

-3.3%

-4.7%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

Regional markets Combined capital cities National

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

Quarterly change Annual change

Premium dwelling values continue to record much larger value falls than those of more affordable housing

6

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles,

National as at March 2019

Annual change in dwelling values by decile,

Mar-19


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Quarterly change Annual change Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -3.2% over the first quarter of 2019 and they are -10.9%

lower over the past year. Sydney dwelling values are now -13.9% lower than their July 2017 peak.

7

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Melbourne have fallen by -3.4% over the 3 months to March 2019 and they are -9.8% lower

over the past year. Values in Melbourne have now fallen by -10.3% since they peaked in November 2017.

8

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Quarterly change Annual change Brisbane home values fell -0.7% over the three months to February 2019 and they were -0.5%

lower over the past year. Brisbane dwelling values are now -1.0% lower than their April 2018 peak.

9

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%



Dwelling values in Adelaide fell by

-0.5% over the three months to March 2019 however, they are 0.8% higher over the past year. Adelaide house values were 0.7%higher over the past year while unit values were 1.2%

higher.

10

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide


-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%


Quarterly change Annual change Perth dwelling

values fell by -2.9%over the three months to March 2019 and they are -7.7% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Perth are now -18.1% lower than they were at their peak in June

2014.

11

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



Dwelling values in Hobart rose 1.2% over the 3 months to March 2019 and are 6.0% higher over the past year. Over the past 12 months, house values have increased 5.7% and unit values are 6.9%

higher.

12

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Mar-01 Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-10 Mar-13 Mar-16 Mar-19


Darwin dwelling values fell by -3.9% over the three months to March 2019 and they are -6.8% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Darwin are currently -27.5% lower than their

historic peak.

13

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Canberra were unchanged over the three months to March 2019 and they are 3.1% higher over the past year. House values have increased by 3.9%over the year while

unit values rose 0.2%.

14

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra


30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

Mar 99 Mar 01 Mar 03 Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19

Monthly sales with six month moving average, National

-19.1%

-24.3%

-5.6%

4.0%

-2.5%

-4.3%

9.7%

2.9%

-14.2%

-6.4%

-11.3%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

Year on year change in settled sales

15

Transaction numbers remain lower than a year ago and well

below the decade average due to significant falls in settled transactions across Australia’s two largest cities

Source: CoreLogic

Note the sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision however, they are still subject to revision. Furthermore, sales volumes do not

account for off-the-plan purchases which upon completion are counted as sales at their contract date.

Decade average


-3.1%2.1%

1.4%1.2%

2.1%5.4%

-5.7%3.6%

2.1%4.7%

0.9%0.8%

-0.2%5.5%

2.5%

-0.1%1.8%

0.4%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT

Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


16

Rental growth continues to slow, largely due to falls in Sydney and slowing rental growth elsewhere

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling rents, National Annual change in dwelling rents to Mar-19


3.5%3.6%

4.5%4.4%

4.3%5.1%

6.0%4.9%

4.7%4.7%

5.4%5.7%5.8%

5.4%6.8%

3.8%5.1%

4.1%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

3.5%

3.7%

3.9%

4.1%

4.3%

4.5%

4.7%

4.9%

5.1%


17

With rental growth typically stronger than value growth, gross rental yields are rising fairly rapidly from their recent historic lows

Source: CoreLogic

Gross rental yields, National Gross rental yields as at Mar-19


6954

5849

6427

7750

7049

6481

7047

79

5763

60

4030414756975.539

56505178733975

385443

0 50 100

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

Feb-19

Feb-18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

18

The time it takes to sell a property is increasing as transaction

volumes fall with fewer active buyers in the market

Source: CoreLogic

Median days on market Median days on market Feb-18 vs Feb-19


-7.6%-7.0%

-5.0%-5.1%

-6.7%-3.8%

-7.9%-2.7%

-5.0%-4.5%

-5.7%-5.7%

-7.3%-4.4%-4.9%

-6.3%-5.2%

-5.7%

-4.8%-3.5%-4.2%-4.8%-5.9%-3.3%-7.7%-2.3%

-3.8%-3.9%-5.0%-5.8%-7.2%-4.5%-5.0%

-4.5%-4.4%-4.4%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

Feb-19

Feb-18

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%


Combined capitals

Combined regionals

19

As the housing market weakens, vendors are having to offer

larger discounts in order to secure a sale

Source: CoreLogic

Median vendor discount Median vendor discount Feb-18 vs Feb-19


Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 6,085 -10.0% 28,482 7.1%

Melbourne 6,941 -4.6% 35,842 19.7%

Brisbane 3,775 -2.5% 21,263 8.9%

Adelaide 2,114 8.9% 8,745 6.9%

Perth 3,522 -7.0% 21,291 0.0%

Hobart 428 0.5% 1,310 22.8%

Darwin 150 13.6% 1,416 0.6%

Canberra 666 21.1% 2,481 23.4%

Combined capitals 23,681 -4.3% 120,830 9.8%

StateNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

NSW 10,602 -9.5% 54,186 9.2%

Vic 9,866 -6.2% 53,288 10.0%

Qld 8,690 -8.3% 63,752 2.6%

SA 2,803 1.0% 17,578 0.9%

WA 4,831 -8.0% 34,698 -1.0%

Tas 1,019 -3.0% 4,992 -6.7%

NT 205 12.0% 2,016 2.5%

ACT 680 21.9% 2,587 23.9%

National 38,696 -6.8% 233,097 5.0%

20

While fewer newly listed properties are coming up for sale currently, total listings are generally higher than they were a year ago

Source: CoreLogic

Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 31 March 2019


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%


Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nc

e r

ate

Weekly clearance rate, combined capital cities

21

Auction markets have been stronger in early 2019 on much lower volumes than over the previous year

Source: CoreLogic


20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Sep-88 Sep-98 Sep-08 Sep-18

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Sep-88 Sep-98 Sep-08 Sep-18

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Sep-83 Sep-88 Sep-93 Sep-98 Sep-03 Sep-08 Sep-13 Sep-18

1.5%2.2%

1.7%0.8%0.9%

1.2%-0.2%

1.9%1.6%

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

NSWVIC

QLDSA

WATASNT

ACTAUST

22

Housing demand: migration to Australia remains high, however the trend in population growth has dipped a little

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Quarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population

Rolling 4 qtr average


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


Houses Units

23

Unit approvals surged in February however, both house and unit approvals continue to trend lower


Number of dwellings approved for construction, National

Rolling 6 mth average


5.9%

0.9%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%

Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19

Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

37.6%

21.4%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18

% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+

45.6%

15.8%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18

% of mortgages originated on interest-only terms

24

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA

Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace, due in large to much tighter credit conditions


The slowdown in credit growth is mostly due to a

sharp reduction in investment lending;

down 29% over the past year and 50% lower

relative to the 2015 peak.

More recently, owner occupier lending has

dived sharply, down 17% over the past 12 months.

25


$15.3

$12.4

$9.4

$4.7

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19

$ b

illio

n

Monthly value of new housing finance commitments, National

Owner occupier (ex refi)

Investor (ex refi)

42.9%

27.3%

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19

New investor lending share of total new lending (ex

refinances)

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story. 26


Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in each state and territory

Long run

average

Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances)



First home buyers have been a key source of housing demand recently due to improved affordability, less competition from investors, low mortgage rates and

incentivesFirst home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing

finance commitments (excluding refi)

First home buyers as a % of all

owner occupier housing finance

commitments (exc refi), Jan 19


0.14%

0.21%

0.04%

0.44%

0.55%

0.17%

Variable, standard

Variable, discounted

Variable, 3-year fixed

Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occ

upie

rIn

vest

or

Change in avg mortgage rate since low point,

Mar 2019

5.37%

4.68%

4.05%

5.94%

5.25%

4.30%

Variable, standard



Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occ

upie

rIn

vest

or

Avg mortgage rate by product type,

Mar 2019

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Mar-59 Mar-64 Mar-69 Mar-74 Mar-79 Mar-84 Mar-89 Mar-94 Mar-99 Mar-04 Mar-09 Mar-14 Mar-19

28

Official interest rates remain on hold however, the market expects a cut is more likely than an increase

Source: CoreLogic, RBA

Standard variable mortgage rates over time


Disclaimer

29

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or

completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body

corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it

may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and

agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in

negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.

South Australian Data

This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the

accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will

constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying

upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box

1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The

Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au


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our insights. your story. - corelogic › sites › default › files › 2019-04...as at the end of...

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