OUR ENERGY FUTURE: UPDATED

SC 203January 30, 2008

John Bush

ENERGY POLICY:SUMMARY OF ISSUES

• By using so much fossil fuel are we making the Earth an unfit place for life?

• Is the world running out of oil?• Is our nation endangered by our dependence on

imported oil?• How will global demographic and economic

trends affect our energy future?• How will energy supply choices affect the

availability of supplies of water and food?• How might our “American Lifestyle” be affected?

ENERGY POLICY

• What is energy policy in the United States?• Who makes energy policy in the United States?• What is the energy policy of the United States?• What might the future energy policy of the

United States be?• What do you think the energy policy of the

United States ought to be?

WHAT DO WE MEAN BY POLICY?

• “A policy is a deliberate plan of action to guide decisions and achieve rational outcome(s). The term may apply to government, private sector organizations and groups, and individuals.” (Wikipedia)

• Levels of energy policy– International (climate change)– United State Government (climate change, peak oil, national

economic security, lifestyle)– State governments– Local governments– Business firms– Communities– Households– Individuals

POLICY INSTRUMENTS

• Governments: laws, regulations, taxes, incentives, direct investments, communication

• Businesses: energy sourcing, energy efficiency of products and production, communication

• Educational institutions: bases for understanding energy issues; communication of this understanding; research for more favorable options

• Religious institutions: conservation ethic, global stewardship

• Households/Individuals: purchase decisions, lifestyle choices, voting, participation in group actions, communication

WHO IS PAYING ATTENTION?

• Energy policy does not appear to be a “gut” issue for the American voter

• What are “gut” issues?– The economy (housing debacle, jobs)– The Iraq war– Health care– Illegal immigration– Terrorism

PEAK OIL PANIC

• Is the oil peak now? www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

• What to do if you are convinced?• Relocalization networks:

www.relocalize.net

• Portland Oregon “Peak Oil Resolution”– Implement recommendations of the Peak Oil

Task Force– Reduce oil and gas use 50% by 2030

ENERGY POLICY ACT1992

• Federal procurement of alternative fuel vehicles

• Encourage efficiency for buildings and utilities

• Establish efficiency standards for buildings and equipment

• Establish framework for competitive development of renewable energy technologies

ENERGY POLICY ACT2002

• Authorizes loan guarantees for innovative technologies that avoid greenhouse gas emissions

• Requires tripling of ethanol in national fuel supply by 2012• Authorizes $200 million annually for clean coal• Authorizes subsidies for developing alternative energy

sources• Provides incentives for companies drilling in the Gulf of

Mexico• Provides tax breaks for improvements to home efficiency• Nuclear

– Extends indemnification through 2025– Authorizes cost overrun support for 6 new nuclear plants– Authorizes $1.25 billion to build a hydrogen/electricity producing

nuclear reactor

ENERGY POLICY ACT2002

• Tax reductions – $4.3 billion for nuclear power– $2.8 billion for fossil fuel production– $2.7 billion to extend the renewable electricity production credit– $1.6 billion in tax incentives for investments in clean coal

facilities– $1.3 billion for conservation and energy efficiency– $1.3 billion for alternative motor vehicles and fuels (ethanol,

methane, propane)• Not included in final bill

--Drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge --Increasing vehicle efficiency standards (CAFE).

--Requiring increased reliance on non-greenhouse gas-emitting energy sources similar to the Kyoto Protocol

ENERGY POLICY ACT2007

• Increase vehicle fuel-economy standards to 35 mpg by 2020 (with an ethanol “loop-hole”)

• Increase biofuels to 36 billion gallons annually by 2022

• Phase out incandescent light bulb by 2014• Increase appliance efficiency standards• Expand carbon sequestration projects• New/renovated federal buildings must reduce

fossil-fuel-generated energy consumption by 100% by 2030

ENERGY POLICY ACT2007

What was cut out

• $21 billion tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, bonds to finance renewable energy

• $9.4 billion cut in tax incentives for oil and gas• Requirement that utilities produce 15% of their

energy from renewables• Extension of tax credits for wind and solar

equipment

POTENTIAL ISSUES FOR NEXT CONGRESS

• Cap-and-trade: Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act

• National renewable standard for utilities• Wind and solar tax credits• Establish an Advanced Research Projects

Agency-Energy (ARPA-E)• Increase research/demonstration funding for

– Batteries for PHEVs– Ethanol from cellulose

SENATE BILL S2191CLIMATE SECURITY ACT OF 2007

• “A Manhattan Project for energy”: Max Baucus D. MT.

• Requires greenhouse emitters to obtain emission permits in order to operate

• Could lower greenhouse emissions 70% by 2050

• Auction of permits could generate $3 trillion between 2012 and 2050

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARYFEBRUARY 5

DEMOCRATSWHAT DO THEY HAVE IN COMMON?

• By 2050 reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80-90% from 1990 levels

• Implement a cap-and-trade system

• Invest $13-$50 Billion for green energy development

• Neutral to negative on nuclear power

DEMOCRATSDIFFERENCES OF EMPHASIS

• Hillary Clinton– 100,000 PHEVs in Federal fleet by 2015– Enact standards on efficiency, mileage and renewable energy– “Agnostic” about nuclear energy

• Barack Obama– Expand nuclear power if waste disposal and proliferation

problems are resolved– Deploy coal liquefaction if result is 20% less carbon emissions

than from conventional fuels• John Edwards

– No nuclear power expansion– No coal liquefaction– Renewable energy target 50% by 2040– Increase mileage standards to 50 mpg by 2040

REPUBLICANS

• John McCain– Probably pro-active policy on global warming– Supports mandatory emission caps– No carbon tax– Supports ethanol, PHEVs, and higher mileage standards

• Mitt Romney– Expand drilling to OCS and ANWR– Establish an Apollo-like “research initiative”– Expand alternative sources of energy: “biodiesel, ethanol, nuclear, coal

gasification”– Provide tariff protection for US ethanol– Increase basic research on energy production, and energy efficiency– Probably negative on measures to combat global warming

MORE REPUBLICANS

• Mike Huckabee– Agnostic on role of human action in global warming—”be good stewards of the

earth”– Supports “in principle” a mandatory emissions cap– Energy independence by 2016: nuclear, clean coal, solar, wind– Raise mileage standards: 35 mpg by 2020

• Rudolph Giulani– Expand drilling to continental shelf (OCS) and Alaskan wilderness (ANWR)– Establish an Apollo-like program for energy– Expand nuclear power, coal to liquid fuel, wind power/hydro/solar, ethanol

supplies– No emission caps or increase in mileage standards

• Ron Paul– Agnostic on global warming– No carbon tax– No tariffs on ethanol– No regulation to control emissions– Expand nuclear energy

SUGGESTED NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY ULTIMATE

GOALS• Provide alternative energy systems that will

replace petroleum use by 2050 or sooner• Establish an economically optimal mix of energy

sources based on America’s full resource endowment

• Reduce carbon emissions to a world-agreed level

• Through a mix of conservation and efficiency improvements reduce domestic energy use per capita by 25%

NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY INTERIM GOALS

• Maintain net fuel costs to industry at or below world petroleum prices to maintain economic competitiveness

• Provide established technologies in time to match hydrocarbon price increases with economic alternatives

• Establish a coherent system of incentives, penalties and regulations to promote national energy conservation

• Reduce greenhouse emissions ahead of global reductions to establish leadership in limiting global warming

• Export established technologies to promote reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions

• Provide nuclear fuel reprocessing/reactor technology to other nations to limit opportunities for nuclear weapons proliferation

• Sustain technology development as world petroleum prices rise and fall

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

• Are these the right goals?

• Are they realistic in view of the technology options we have?

• Do we have the political will to carry them out?

• Will the rest of the world follow our leadership?

ENERGY POLICY: INCENTIVES

• Oil• Gas• Coal• Hydroelectric• Nuclear• Renewables• Geothermal• 60% has gone to oil and gas