Our Changing Climate: What Next?Our Changing Climate: What Next?

Richard B. RoodUniversity of MichiganCollege of Engineering

Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciencesrbrood@umich.edu

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

Talk OutlineTalk Outline

• Coming from NASA to Michigan– A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action

• Five Slides on Climate Change Science• Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity• Open Community Approaches to Complex

Problem Solving– Openclimate.org

Coming from NASA to MichiganComing from NASA to Michigan

• Coming from NASA to Michigan– A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action

• Five Slides on Climate Change Science• Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity• Open Community Approaches to Complex

Problem Solving– Openclimate.org

My NASA BackgroundMy NASA Background

• Complex problems with no known solutions• Analyzing Ozone Observations and Ozone

Prediction– Ozone Hole

• Manager of Scientists and Software Projects– Deliver Prediction and Analysis Models to Support

NASA Earth Observing System• “Corporate Strategist”

– Office of Science and Technology Policy• Director of High Performance Computing

Move to U of MichiganMove to U of Michigan

• Arrived in September 2005– Second day in Ann Arbor a university wide

summit on climate change• In Winter of 2006 I started a graduate

course called, Climate Change: The Intersection of Science, Economics, and Policy. This evolved into Climate Change: The Move to Action – a course in Problem Solving in Climate Change

Where have the students come from?Where have the students come from?

• School of Natural Resources and Environment

• School of Business• School of Public Policy• Literature, Sciences and Art• College of Engineering• School of Law• School of Public Health

ProjectsProjects

• Project– To provide a knowledge-based analysis of a

complex problem– Purpose of the analysis

• Inform an agency head, government official, a corporate manager so that a decision can be made

• Set the foundation for a research program, an initiative, a business plan

Advocacy and knowledgeAdvocacy and knowledge

• Students become aware of what is knowledge and what is advocacy– Advocacy separated from what is known– If an advocate, be fully aware of that fact

Class WebsiteClass Website

• Class Web Site– Climate Change: The Move to Action

• Winter 2008 Term

• 2008 Climate Change Projects– Energy, Water, Climate Change, and Economic Development of the Navajo

Nation • Narrative Presentation

– Exxon and BP: An Analysis of Two Companies' Approach to Climate Change • Narrative Presentation

– Iron Fertilization in the Ocean: Environment and Business Opportunity • Narrative Presentation

– Biofuel and Hybrid Buses in Ann Arbor: A Consideration of the Cost of Climate Change

• Narrative Presentation– Carbon Management Initiative: The Integration of Carbon Management into the

University of Michigan Curriculum • Narrative Presentation

Some things that have happenedSome things that have happened

Lecture at the National Center for Atmospheric Research on Lessons Learned from Teaching Class.

Expert Climate Change Blog for Wunderground.com

Blog for American Meteorological Society at Climatepolicy.org

New York Times Eyes and EarsTopics: Global WarmingEyes and Ears

AOSS 480NRE 480

From Class and Projects From Class and Projects Openclimate.orgOpenclimate.org

• Enormous knowledge of climate change exists outside of the community of scientists

• Evolved communities that address problems of environmental stress, that will be amplified, not caused, by climate change

• Scientific community’s desire to “push” climate information to other communities was, perhaps, uninformed

• Amazing potential to accelerate addressing climate change problems if the existing knowledge base was more readily accessible

Five Slides on Climate Change ScienceFive Slides on Climate Change Science

• Coming from NASA to Michigan– A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action

• Five Slides on Climate Change Science• Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity• Open Community Approaches to Complex

Problem Solving– Openclimate.org

Five Slides on Climate Change ScienceFive Slides on Climate Change Science

• I have assigned (or allowed) myself five slides to talk about the science of climate change.

• There are many 10s of thousands of research papers on climate change and its impact.– It is hard (impossible?) to find a neglected

subject.

But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). Due to primarily water and carbon dioxide.

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

SUN

Earth

Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F).

This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. We are making the atmosphere “thicker.”This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming

The motivator: Increase of COThe motivator: Increase of CO22 ((Keeling Keeling et al.,et al., 19961996))

1860 ~ 280 ppm

2009 ~ 390 ppm

Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide

Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxidemeasure of temperature and carbon dioxide

350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon

Dioxide (CO2 ) at Vostok, Antarctica ice

cores

During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age

There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm)

CO2 2009

CO2 2100

390 ppm

460 ppm

Some References• Vostok and CO2• Role of Ocean in Reversal

Predictions of the Predictions of the 2020thth CenturyCentury

How do we test our models? How do we attribute observed warming to the industry of humans?

One thing we do is make “predictions” (simulations, hindcasts) of the observations of past behavior

Anthropogenic Forcing: Industrial CO2, Changes in Land Use, Other Greenhouse Gases (N2O, CH4, CFCs)

Natural Forcing: Solar variability, volcanoes, “pre-industrial” CO2

It is only when anthropogenic forcing is calculated can we explain the warming observed to begin in the late 20th century.

Some References• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• Fourth Assessment Report

Projections for the next 100 years.Projections for the next 100 years.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

Conclusions from the Scientific Conclusions from the Scientific Investigation of the Physical ClimateInvestigation of the Physical Climate

• The Earth has warmed, and most of that warming is due to the enterprise of humans.

• The Earth will continue to warm.• Sea level will rise.• The weather will change.

1970s Ice Age Stories

The IPCC Process

Let’s remember the ozone “smoking gun.” Is there a “smoking gun” for climate change?Is there some impact of climate change that raises urgency and accelerates action?

Water, Water, Water

Climate Predictions Offer OpportunityClimate Predictions Offer Opportunity

• Coming from NASA to Michigan– A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action

• Five Slides on Climate Change Science• Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity• Open Community Approaches to Complex

Problem Solving– Openclimate.org

Climate Predictions Offer OpportunityClimate Predictions Offer Opportunity

• This is serious. Global warming and changes of distribution of water will disrupt societies and ecosystems; it will, for the most part, increase the impact that “weather” has on society.

• We have credible predictions of the future; we have actionable information. This is unprecedented opportunity – opportunity to prepare for the future. – Essay on Opportunity and Climate Predictions

SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change impacts all of societyClimate change impacts all of society

Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs

information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …

SecurityFood

EnvironmentalNational

Societal SuccessStandard of Living

...???...

ECONOMICSPOLICY

BUSINESS PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE

ENERGYRELIGION LAW

Climate Change RelationshipsClimate Change Relationships

• Consumption // Population // Energy

CLIMATE CHANGE

ENERGY

POPULATION

CONSUMPTION WE

ALT

H

Acquisition and preservation of wealth is of central importance to people. Hence, “wealth” is a source of urgency, and it often works on the “short term.”

As do energy security and population pressure

Climate change usually considered a longClimate change usually considered a long-- term problemterm problem

• If we were to take actions to reduce carbon dioxide, then it would be a long time before we see benefit, and

• many assume that climate change is a slow warming that will be a long time coming, and

• that there will be technological solutions to the problem.

• Hence, climate change is viewed by most as long term.

What is shortWhat is short--term and longterm and long--term?term?

25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years0 years

ENERGY SECURITY

ECONOMYCLIMATE CHANGE

Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...

LONGSHORT

There are short-term issues important to climate change.

We arrive at levels of granularityWe arrive at levels of granularity

TEMPORAL

NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM

SPATIAL

LOCAL

GLOBAL

WEALTH

Small scales inform large scales.Large scales inform small scales.

Need to introduce spatial scales as well

EnergyEnergy--EconomyEconomy--Climate ChangeClimate Change

• Because of the global reach of Energy, Economy, and Climate Change, solutions need to be woven into the fabric of our behavior.

• Solutions need to be able to evolve from the near-term to the long-term.

• Solutions need to address both local and global attributes of the problem.

• Solutions are impacted by wealth• There is no one solution; we need a portfolio of

solution paths.

Business and Market

More lessons learned from classMore lessons learned from class

• Our focus on discipline-based expertise and two-subject interfaces, e.g. climate-policy, climate-energy, climate- business, etc., lead to polarized arguments and inhibit our ability to develop solution paths.– The need for trans-disciplinary discourse and rationalization of

the interfaces between “disciplines.” (communities instead of disciplines?) (Thoumi: Practicum, Rood and Thoumi Article)

– The uncertainty fallacy• There is an existing reservoir of knowledge resources

that are isolated in their “native” disciplines. The knowledge base is fragmented.

• If this information could be brought together the ability to accelerate problem solving would be enhanced.

Open Community Approaches to Complex Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem SolvingProblem Solving

• Coming from NASA to Michigan– A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action

• Five Slides on Climate Change Science• Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity• Open Community Approaches to Complex

Problem Solving– Openclimate

Where are we?Where are we?

• We arrive at a situation where there are four over arching communities:– Science– Business– Government– Non-governmental organizations

• For the most part the elements of the community behave rationally within their community.

• When the communities interact, they can appear irrational to each other.

• With the consideration of the attributes of time, space, and wealth, rationality can often be defined and lead to solution paths.

• These are “biological” not “hierarchical” relationships.

A proposal for going forwardA proposal for going forward

• Open source, open innovation, open communities.

• What is an open source community?

Open Community Approaches to Complex Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem SolvingProblem Solving

• The Elements of Open Source• Open source is a production model that enables communities of

people with common interests to work together productively with minimal centralized control. Fundamental elements of an open source approach include:

• “source” (goods, ideas, code) that is accessible to everyone • openness • collaboration and community • recognition for contributions • transparency • democratization of the tools necessary to contribute

Some successful open source communitiesSome successful open source communities

• Operating system: Linux• Web browser: Mozilla Firefox• Open source environment: Apache• Encyclopedia: Wikipedia• Citizen journalism website Digg• Open Source Initiative

Some open source references

Openclimate.orgOpenclimate.org

• A new approach to climate change problem solving

• Builds on intellectual resources from all communities, allows this community to place a “pull” on the resources built to service the community of scientists.

• Works to remove fragmentation and breakdown the stovepipes of discipline-focused communities.

• Aims to accelerate problem solving through inclusivity.

Openclimate.orgOpenclimate.org

• Openclimate.org– http://openclimate.org/

oc20090203 Usernameoc20090203 Password

starting to make it real

Is there some time?Is there some time?

• Let’s remember the ozone “smoking gun.” Is there a “smoking gun” for climate change?

• Is there some impact of climate change that raises urgency and accelerates action?

Thank youThank you

Ozone HoleOzone Hole

• Global environmental problem with some similarities to global warming.– Huge reductions of ozone over Antarctica, and significant

reductions elsewhere.

Some characteristics:

•Strong, near-term human health impact.

•“Smoking gun” is observed

•Replacement refrigerants became available

Return to talk

The Uncertainty Fallacy?The Uncertainty Fallacy?

• Scientific investigation produces two things– Knowledge– Uncertainty about that knowledge

Return to talk

Science: Knowledge and UncertaintyScience: Knowledge and Uncertainty

Knowledge from Predictions

Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted

Motivates policy

Policy1) Uncertainty always exists2) New uncertainties will be revealed3) Uncertainty can always be used to

keep policy from converging Return to talk

Science: Knowledge and UncertaintyScience: Knowledge and Uncertainty

Knowledge from Predictions

Motivates policy

Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted

Policy1) Uncertainty always exists2) New uncertainties will be revealed3) Uncertainty can always be used to keep

policy from converging

What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.

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The Uncertainty FallacyThe Uncertainty Fallacy

• The uncertainty fallacy is that scientific investigation provides a systematic reduction of uncertainty of knowledge and that a systematic reduction of uncertainty is what is needed to motivate the development of policy or, more generally, “decision making.”– In addition, scientific uncertainty needs to be

considered in relationship to other forms of uncertainty and needs to map to risk and benefit.

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Business and MarketBusiness and Market

• Business has often been posed as the villain in climate change discussions– But business is far from uniform in

motivations, practices, and beliefs• Business is core to the economy, core to

consumption, core to energy use– Ultimately business is a core element of the

solution set; it is connective.

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Elements of environmental pollutant Elements of environmental pollutant marketmarket

ENERGY PRODUCTION

FUEL SOURCES

ABATEMENT

SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS

F1c F2

c Fic

F1A F2

A FiA

A1 A2 Ai

GDP

.

POLLUTANT

efficiency

CO

ST

GA

P

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Some Resources on Business and Climate Some Resources on Business and Climate ChangeChange

• Readings– Hoffman: Pew Corporate Strategies 2006– McKinsey: Global Business Survey 2008

• Web portals– U.S. Climate Action Partnership

• CAP Call for Action– CERES: Coalition of Investors, Environmental

and Public Interest Groups• Click Publications: Look at 2003 and 2006

Corporate Governance

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1970s Ice Age 1970s Ice Age StoriesStories

Why do we think that our predictions today are more robust than these predictions from the 1970s?

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Increase of COIncrease of CO2 2 ((Keeling Keeling et al.,et al., 19961996))

“This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through…a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”

--Lyndon JohnsonSpecial Message to Congress, 1965

Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are Not Wrong

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Some open source referencesSome open source references

• Raymond: The Cathedral and the Bazaar• Demil: Neither Market nor Heirarchy nor

Network ...• Shah: Motivation, Governance and the

Viability ...• Sturmer: Open Source Community

Building• von Krogh Community, Joining and the

Specialization ...Return to talk

Open Open ““sourcesource”” communitiescommunities

• Value knowledge and synthesis of knowledge– Free access to knowledge is beneficial to

individuals in the community.• Proven effective for organizing complex

systems and developing elements of solution paths

• Are governed; they are not anarchy• Are owned by the community

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