osmond and gardner modelling austria ihd, males, based on ... · osmond and gardner modelling...

Osmond and Gardner Modelling

Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value

Fitting the Age, Period, Cohort Models

Model RSS MRSS DF Factor %Account ChiSq P

AGE-ONLY 336.71 6.60 51 P, C 93.52 1791.50 0.0000

AGE-PERIOD 79.77 1.77 45 Cohort 72.63 424.03 0.0000

AGE-COHORT 76.99 2.14 36 Period 71.64 408.40 0.0000

PERIOD-COHORT 27.33 0.68 40 Age 20.12 145.17 0.0000

FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 21.83 0.68 32 115.84 0.0000

AGE-GROUP LOG(AGE-VALUE) AGE-VALUE

30 2.018053 104.244579

35 2.376628 238.027702

40 2.728650 535.364769

45 3.008983 1020.899864

50 3.269068 1858.097358

55 3.514945 3272.992175

60 3.750072 5624.348513

65 3.950536 8923.524851

70 4.141987 13867.150200

75 4.320453 20914.787579

PERIOD LOG(PERIOD-VALUE) PERIOD-VALUE

1961 0.035466 1.085090

1966 0.014954 1.035032

1971 0.005210 1.012069

1976 0.020128 1.047437

1981 -0.019608 0.955855

1986 -0.072429 0.846391

COHORT LOG(COHORT-VALUE) COHORT-VALUE

1886 -0.016459 0.962811

1891 0.001483 1.003421

1896 0.011278 1.026308

1901 0.009772 1.022755

1906 -0.002153 0.995055

1911 -0.020688 0.953481

1916 0.006556 1.015211

1921 0.022982 1.054343

1926 -0.003306 0.992416

1931 0.034256 1.082071

1936 -0.063294 0.864382

1941 -0.040936 0.910047

1946 -0.072214 0.846811

1951 -0.066411 0.858201

1956 -0.248736 0.563980

Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14



Fitting the FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT Model

Matrix of observed and expected deaths and (O-E)**2/E Values

1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-

30 - OBS 172.0 101.0 108.0 108.0 100.0 69.0

EXP 134.0 103.4 130.1 124.8 105.0 69.0

CHI 10.8 0.1 3.8 2.2 0.2 0.0

35 - OBS 297.0 303.0 230.0 293.0 247.0 216.0

EXP 293.0 295.4 232.1 301.5 253.1 211.2

CHI 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1

40 - OBS 529.0 616.0 614.0 495.0 664.0 518.0

EXP 539.2 627.6 647.5 527.3 603.0 496.8

CHI 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.0 6.2 0.9

45 - OBS 789.0 948.0 1153.0 1300.0 932.0 959.0

EXP 857.6 967.8 1147.4 1234.7 885.2 995.1

CHI 5.5 0.4 0.0 3.5 2.5 1.3

50 - OBS 2026.0 1477.0 1712.0 2072.0 1949.0 1360.0

EXP 2095.1 1442.2 1669.0 2065.2 1954.3 1372.3

CHI 2.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1

55 - OBS 3868.0 3293.0 2321.0 2901.0 3206.0 2784.0

EXP 3879.1 3319.7 2347.4 2861.6 3103.6 2864.9

CHI 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.4 2.3

60 - OBS 6201.0 5934.0 4982.0 3586.0 4161.0 4201.0

EXP 6127.8 5694.6 5069.2 3782.6 4092.6 4311.5

CHI 0.9 10.1 1.5 10.2 1.1 2.8

65 - OBS 7047.0 7693.0 7506.0 7187.0 4768.0 4942.0

EXP 7004.5 7747.2 7454.8 7162.0 4711.0 5065.9

CHI 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 3.0

70 - OBS 7243.0 7704.0 8897.0 9354.0 8095.0 5411.0

EXP 7251.3 7887.6 8969.1 9298.1 8080.5 5223.4

CHI 0.0 4.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.7

75 - OBS 7003.0 6922.0 7817.0 9411.0 8381.0 7932.0

EXP 7003.0 6913.7 7679.4 9359.0 8728.7 7791.8

CHI 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.3 13.9 2.5




Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT

Effects for extending model to project rates to 1991 to 2010

Projections using parameters Log Transformed

Model ChiSq MChiSq DF Factor %Account P

AGE-ONLY 35834.19 895.85 40 P, C 94.94 0.0000

AGE-PERIOD 3487.54 87.19 40 Cohort 48.01 0.0000

AGE-COHORT 10833.90 270.85 40 Period 83.26 0.0000

PERIOD-COHORT 2314.00 57.85 40 Age 21.64 0.0000

FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 1813.18 45.33 40 0.0000

AGE EFFECT

30 104.244579

35 238.027702

40 535.364769

45 1020.899864

50 1858.097358

55 3272.992175

60 5624.348513

65 8923.524851

70 13867.150200

75 20914.787579

PERIOD EFFECT LOWER UPPER

% Period Change 88.5480 85.5480 91.5480

1961 1.085090

1966 1.035032

1971 1.012069

1976 1.047437

1981 0.955855

1986 0.846391

1991 0.749463 0.724071 0.774855

1996 0.663635 0.619429 0.709364

2001 0.587636 0.529909 0.649409

2006 0.520340 0.453327 0.594521

COHORT EFFECT WEIGHT ORIGINAL

1886 0.962811 1.000000

1891 1.003421 2.000000

1896 1.026308 4.000000

1901 1.022755 8.000000

1906 0.995055 16.000000

1911 0.953481 32.000000

1916 1.015211 64.000000

1921 1.054343 128.000000

1926 0.992416 256.000000

1931 1.082071 512.000000

1936 0.864382 1024.000000

1941 0.910047 2048.000000

1946 0.846811 4096.000000

1951 0.858201 8192.000000

1956 0.825609 EXTRAPOLATION 0.563980

1961 0.803027 EXTRAPOLATION








Matrix of observed and expected rates including predictions (shown by *)

Total over ages standardized using: The 1976 European Standard Population

1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 OBS 157.1 91.1 79.7 80.0 81.5 49.8 50.4 49.8 35.7 32.8

EXP 122.4 93.3 96.0 92.5 85.5 72.8 62.7* 54.0* 46.5* 40.1*

Elow 60.6 50.4 42.0 34.9

Eup 64.9 57.8 51.4 45.8

35 OBS 259.8 273.4 206.3 220.5 188.0 176.8 138.7 123.1 80.8 62.0

EXP 256.3 266.6 208.2 226.9 192.7 172.9 147.3* 126.8* 109.3* 94.1*

Elow 142.3 118.4 98.5 82.0

Eup 152.3 135.6 120.7 107.5

40 OBS 600.9 539.7 556.0 455.0 512.8 400.1 395.7 311.2 205.2 155.7

EXP 612.5 549.9 586.3 484.7 465.7 383.7 344.3* 293.3* 252.6* 217.6*

Elow 332.7 273.8 227.8 189.6

Eup 356.0 313.5 279.2 248.6

45 OBS 1034.7 1091.3 1030.4 1218.3 888.1 757.9 703.8 723.2 445.2 360.0

EXP 1124.6 1114.1 1025.4 1157.1 843.5 786.4 647.9* 581.4* 495.3* 426.6*

Elow 626.0 542.7 446.6 371.6

Eup 669.9 621.5 547.4 487.4

50 OBS 1859.0 1999.5 2033.8 1937.8 1916.6 1347.2 1336.2 1172.7 900.8 643.7

EXP 1922.4 1952.4 1982.7 1931.5 1921.8 1359.4 1267.3* 1044.2* 937.1* 798.2*

Elow 1224.4 974.6 845.0 695.4

Eup 1310.2 1116.2 1035.6 912.0

55 OBS 3523.8 3204.0 3325.0 3664.3 3207.2 2912.9 2184.1 2078.0 1295.7 1191.4

EXP 3533.9 3230.1 3362.9 3614.6 3104.8 2997.6 2120.3* 1976.7* 1628.7* 1461.6*

Elow 2048.5 1845.0 1468.7 1273.3

Eup 2192.2 2112.9 1799.9 1669.9

60 OBS 6316.4 6036.1 5334.1 5669.9 5762.9 4603.2 4448.2 3298.1 2290.8 1857.6

EXP 6241.8 5792.6 5427.4 5980.8 5668.2 4724.3 4561.2* 3226.3* 3007.8* 2478.3*

Elow 4406.7 3011.4 2712.3 2159.1

Eup 4715.7 3448.6 3323.9 2831.6

65 OBS 9997.8 9380.2 9048.3 8943.1 8764.1 7768.4 6622.1 6352.2 3817.7 3095.3

EXP 9937.6 9446.3 8986.6 8912.0 8659.3 7963.2 6637.1* 6408.0* 4532.6* 4225.6*

Elow 6412.3 5981.1 4087.4 3681.4

Eup 6862.0 6849.5 5009.1 4828.0

70 OBS 15081.2 14387.7 14238.5 14540.0 12661.1 12343.5 11206.5 9485.3 7235.2 5122.5

EXP 15098.6 14730.5 14353.9 14453.1 12638.4 11915.6 10957.7* 9132.9* 8817.6* 6237.1*

Elow 10586.4 8524.6 7951.4 5433.8

Eup 11328.9 9762.3 9744.5 7126.2

75 OBS 21850.4 21747.7 22113.3 22529.8 19100.2 17182.3 18163.3 16355.1 11917.4 10288.7

EXP 21850.4 21721.5 21724.1 22405.4 19892.7 16878.6 15913.3* 14634.0* 12197.1* 11776.0*

Elow 15374.1 13659.2 10998.9 10259.4

Eup 16452.4 15642.4 13479.2 13454.8

30-79 OBS 3800.7 3664.5 3583.6 3675.8 3352.9 2947.0 2730.1 2403.5 1667.5 1337.1

EXP 3807.8 3665.4 3582.9 3684.7 3343.1 2952.6 2619.3* 2272.5* 1939.5* 1661.1*

Elow 2530.6 2121.2 1749.0 1447.2

Eup 2708.1 2429.1 2143.4 1897.9





Matrix of observed and expected deaths including predictions

1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 - OBS 172.0 101.0 108.0 108.0 100.0 69.0 86.0 90.0 56.0 44.0

EXP 134.0 103.4 130.1 124.8 105.0 101.0 107.1* 97.6* 72.9* 53.8*

CHI 10.759 0.054 3.764 2.250 0.236 10.143 4.144 0.586 3.924 1.782

35 - OBS 297.0 303.0 230.0 293.0 247.0 216.0 199.0 211.0 146.0 99.0

EXP 293.0 295.4 232.1 301.5 253.1 211.2 211.4* 217.5* 197.4* 150.3*

CHI 0.055 0.195 0.019 0.242 0.149 0.109 0.722 0.192 13.393 17.489

40 - OBS 529.0 616.0 614.0 495.0 664.0 518.0 492.0 446.0 349.0 283.0

EXP 539.2 627.6 647.5 527.3 603.0 496.8 428.2* 420.3* 429.6* 395.5*

CHI 0.194 0.215 1.731 1.984 6.163 0.904 9.516 1.566 15.115 31.981

45 - OBS 789.0 948.0 1153.0 1300.0 932.0 959.0 906.0 889.0 629.0 610.0

EXP 857.6 967.8 1147.4 1234.7 885.2 995.1 834.0* 714.7* 699.7* 722.8*

CHI 5.483 0.405 0.028 3.458 2.479 1.307 6.210 42.488 7.151 17.593

50 - OBS 2026.0 1477.0 1712.0 2072.0 1949.0 1360.0 1650.0 1465.0 1081.0 896.0

EXP 2095.1 1442.2 1669.0 2065.2 1954.3 1372.3 1565.0* 1304.5* 1124.5* 1111.1*

CHI 2.280 0.838 1.108 0.022 0.014 0.111 4.618 19.755 1.679 41.625

55 - OBS 3868.0 3293.0 2321.0 2901.0 3206.0 2784.0 2109.0 2454.0 1555.0 1385.0

EXP 3879.1 3319.7 2347.4 2861.6 3103.6 2864.9 2047.4* 2334.3* 1954.7* 1699.0*

CHI 0.032 0.215 0.298 0.541 3.380 2.284 1.852 6.134 81.717 58.044

60 - OBS 6201.0 5934.0 4982.0 3586.0 4161.0 4201.0 3933.0 2970.0 2558.0 2112.0

EXP 6127.8 5694.6 5069.2 3782.6 4092.6 4311.5 4032.9* 2905.3* 3358.6* 2817.7*

CHI 0.876 10.060 1.501 10.219 1.142 2.832 2.475 1.439 190.862 176.732

65 - OBS 7047.0 7693.0 7506.0 7187.0 4768.0 4942.0 5364.0 5013.0 3149.0 3206.0

EXP 7004.5 7747.2 7454.8 7162.0 4711.0 5065.9 5376.2* 5057.0* 3738.7* 4376.8*

CHI 0.258 0.379 0.352 0.087 0.690 3.032 0.028 0.383 93.011 313.172

70 - OBS 7243.0 7704.0 8897.0 9354.0 8095.0 5411.0 5975.0 6451.0 4932.0 3751.0

EXP 7251.3 7887.6 8969.1 9298.1 8080.5 5223.4 5842.3* 6211.4* 6010.7* 4567.1*

CHI 0.010 4.272 0.579 0.336 0.026 6.738 3.012 9.245 193.585 145.844

75 - OBS 7003.0 6922.0 7817.0 9411.0 8381.0 7932.0 5865.0 6741.0 6412.0 5725.0

EXP 7003.0 6913.7 7679.4 9359.0 8728.7 7791.8 5138.5* 6031.6* 6562.5* 6552.5*

CHI 0.000 0.010 2.465 0.289 13.853 2.523 102.726 83.425 3.451 104.514

30-79 OBS 35175.0 34991.0 35340.0 36707.0 32503.0 28392.0 26579.0 26730.0 20867.0 18111.0

EXP 35184.6 34999.3 35346.0 36716.8 32517.0 28433.9 25582.9* 25294.3* 24149.3* 22446.5*

O/E 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.039 1.057 0.864 0.807

CHI SQUARE (LOG)= 1813.1814 ON 40 D.F., P = 0.0000





O&G Cohort and Period parameter values


Cohort Period

COHORT & PERIOD VALUES

CALENDAR YEAR 0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988




Observed and fitted rates for selected age groups


Observed: ages 30-34 Observed: ages 40-44 Observed: ages 50-54 Observed: ages 60-64 Observed: ages 70-74

Fitted: ages 30-34 Fitted: ages 40-44 Fitted: ages 50-54 Fitted: ages 60-64 Fitted: ages 70-74

RATE (LOG10 SCALE)

YEAR OF DEATH 1.50

2.10

2.70

3.30

3.90

4.50

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008




Observed and predicted rates (5 year periods)

30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-

1991- OBS 50.4 138.7 395.7 703.8 1336.2 2184.1 4448.2 6622.1 11206.5 18163.3

PRE 62.7 147.3 344.3 647.9 1267.3 2120.3 4561.2 6637.1 10957.7 15913.3

RES -12.343 -8.607 51.335 55.910 68.845 63.763 -113.000 -15.020 248.821 2250.005

1996- OBS 49.8 123.1 311.2 723.2 1172.7 2078.0 3298.1 6352.2 9485.3 16355.1

PRE 54.0 126.8 293.3 581.4 1044.2 1976.7 3226.3 6408.0 9132.9 14634.0

RES -4.187 -3.768 17.904 141.762 128.502 101.326 71.799 -55.796 352.346 1721.055

2001- OBS 35.7 80.8 205.2 445.2 900.8 1295.7 2290.8 3817.7 7235.2 11917.4

PRE 46.5 109.3 252.6 495.3 937.1 1628.7 3007.8 4532.6 8817.6 12197.1

RES -10.796 -28.455 -47.388 -50.072 -36.209 -333.013 -717.004 -714.920 -1582.431 -279.709

2006- OBS 32.8 62.0 155.7 360.0 643.7 1191.4 1857.6 3095.3 5122.5 10288.7

PRE 40.1 94.1 217.6 426.6 798.2 1461.6 2478.3 4225.6 6237.1 11776.0

RES -7.295 -32.101 -61.875 -66.553 -154.504 -270.146 -620.666 -1130.322 -1114.558 -1487.229

Observed and predicted deaths (5 year periods)

30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-

1991- OBS 86.0 199.0 492.0 906.0 1650.0 2109.0 3933.0 5364.0 5975.0 5865.0

PRE 107.1 211.4 428.2 834.0 1565.0 2047.4 4032.9 5376.2 5842.3 5138.5

CHI 4.144 0.722 9.516 6.210 4.618 1.852 2.475 0.028 3.012 102.726

1996- OBS 90.0 211.0 446.0 889.0 1465.0 2454.0 2970.0 5013.0 6451.0 6741.0

PRE 97.6 217.5 420.3 714.7 1304.5 2334.3 2905.3 5057.0 6211.4 6031.6

CHI 0.586 0.192 1.566 42.488 19.755 6.134 1.439 0.383 9.245 83.425

2001- OBS 56.0 146.0 349.0 629.0 1081.0 1555.0 2558.0 3149.0 4932.0 6412.0

PRE 72.9 197.4 429.6 699.7 1124.5 1954.7 3358.6 3738.7 6010.7 6562.5

CHI 3.924 13.393 15.115 7.151 1.679 81.717 190.862 93.011 193.585 3.451

2006- OBS 44.0 99.0 283.0 610.0 896.0 1385.0 2112.0 3206.0 3751.0 5725.0

PRE 53.8 150.3 395.5 722.8 1111.1 1699.0 2817.7 4376.8 4567.1 6552.5

CHI 1.782 17.489 31.981 17.593 41.625 58.044 176.732 313.172 145.844 104.514



Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value



AGE-ONLY 528.18 10.36 51 P, C 96.06 2824.46 0.0000






30 1.604228 40.200164

35 1.909690 81.225133

40 2.247808 176.932704

45 2.510458 323.934799

50 2.776187 597.291810

55 3.045182 1109.639022

60 3.351490 2246.415384

65 3.655253 4521.195729

70 3.931137 8533.697025

75 4.188823 15446.255720


1961 0.029360 1.069940

1966 0.037428 1.090004

1971 0.024571 1.058207

1976 -0.000429 0.999012

1981 -0.019952 0.955098

1986 -0.114078 0.768992


1886 0.038822 1.093508

1891 0.030008 1.071540

1896 0.021375 1.050450

1901 0.023257 1.055011

1906 0.011132 1.025963

1911 -0.029017 0.935369

1916 -0.042267 0.907262

1921 -0.058379 0.874220

1926 -0.095429 0.802733

1931 -0.023539 0.947243

1936 -0.058986 0.872999

1941 -0.025574 0.942813

1946 -0.045370 0.900803

1951 0.045298 1.109937

1956 0.030648 1.073118






1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-

30 - OBS 43.0 48.0 51.0 48.0 52.0 46.0

EXP 44.6 42.4 54.4 48.8 52.3 46.0

CHI 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

35 - OBS 68.0 74.0 98.0 107.0 98.0 85.0

EXP 79.7 92.9 83.6 101.7 91.8 84.7

CHI 1.7 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.4 0.0

40 - OBS 114.0 148.0 211.0 188.0 228.0 153.0

EXP 145.7 176.7 195.9 167.9 206.3 158.7

CHI 6.9 4.7 1.2 2.4 2.3 0.2

45 - OBS 226.0 265.0 312.0 376.0 268.0 271.0

EXP 239.8 268.1 307.9 327.1 283.4 297.2

CHI 0.8 0.0 0.1 7.3 0.8 2.3

50 - OBS 604.0 408.0 510.0 549.0 565.0 376.0

EXP 651.5 436.3 465.1 512.2 549.5 404.8

CHI 3.5 1.8 4.3 2.7 0.4 2.0

55 - OBS 1315.0 1092.0 759.0 852.0 900.0 704.0

EXP 1337.0 1162.8 743.7 767.2 850.4 772.5

CHI 0.4 4.3 0.3 9.4 2.9 6.1

60 - OBS 2517.0 2525.0 2068.0 1259.0 1364.0 1208.0

EXP 2489.4 2469.7 2076.8 1287.7 1354.3 1265.5

CHI 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.1 2.6

65 - OBS 3669.0 4324.0 4138.0 3351.0 2074.0 1815.0

EXP 3581.7 4264.0 4071.9 3395.2 2131.4 1933.6

CHI 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.5 7.3

70 - OBS 4704.0 5257.0 5914.0 5542.0 4857.0 2718.0

EXP 4698.8 5232.0 5953.1 5626.9 4874.3 2609.9

CHI 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.1 4.5

75 - OBS 5792.0 5737.0 5955.0 6751.0 6625.0 5310.0

EXP 5792.0 5742.2 6069.5 6800.3 6641.4 5129.0

CHI 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.4








AGE-ONLY 39895.50 997.39 40 P, C 94.97 0.0000

AGE-PERIOD 867.11 21.68 40 Cohort -131.45 0.0000




AGE EFFECT

30 40.200164

35 81.225133

40 176.932704

45 323.934799

50 597.291810

55 1109.639022

60 2246.415384

65 4521.195729

70 8533.697025

75 15446.255720


% Period Change 80.5144 77.5144 83.5144

1961 1.069940

1966 1.090004

1971 1.058207

1976 0.999012

1981 0.955098

1986 0.768992

1991 0.619149 0.596079 0.642219

1996 0.498504 0.462047 0.536345

2001 0.401368 0.358153 0.447926

2006 0.323159 0.277621 0.374083


1886 1.093508 1.000000

1891 1.071540 2.000000

1896 1.050450 4.000000

1901 1.055011 8.000000

1906 1.025963 16.000000

1911 0.935369 32.000000

1916 0.907262 64.000000

1921 0.874220 128.000000

1926 0.802733 256.000000

1931 0.947243 512.000000

1936 0.872999 1024.000000

1941 0.942813 2048.000000

1946 0.900803 4096.000000

1951 1.109937 8192.000000

1956 1.113145 EXTRAPOLATION 1.073118











1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 OBS 39.3 43.3 37.6 35.6 42.4 33.2 29.3 23.8 14.0 9.7

EXP 40.7 38.3 40.1 36.2 42.6 34.4 29.2* 24.7* 21.0* 17.8*

Elow 28.1 22.9 18.7 15.3

Eup 30.3 26.6 23.4 20.6

35 OBS 59.5 66.8 87.9 80.5 74.6 69.6 53.0 47.8 26.6 21.3

EXP 69.8 83.9 75.0 76.5 69.9 69.3 56.0* 47.5* 40.3* 34.1*

Elow 53.9 44.0 35.9 29.3

Eup 58.1 51.1 44.9 39.5

40 OBS 129.5 129.7 191.1 172.8 176.1 118.2 104.5 96.3 58.8 42.4

EXP 165.5 154.8 177.4 154.3 159.3 122.6 121.6* 98.2* 83.3* 70.6*

Elow 117.1 91.0 74.3 60.6

Eup 126.1 105.6 92.9 81.7

45 OBS 296.4 305.1 278.8 352.4 255.4 214.2 178.7 172.5 106.9 82.6

EXP 314.4 308.7 275.2 306.5 270.1 234.9 180.7* 179.2* 144.7* 122.7*

Elow 173.9 166.1 129.1 105.4

Eup 187.4 192.8 161.5 142.1

50 OBS 554.2 552.3 605.9 513.5 555.6 372.5 317.4 270.6 181.7 137.9

EXP 597.8 590.7 552.6 479.0 540.4 401.0 348.7* 268.2* 266.1* 214.9*

Elow 335.7 248.6 237.4 184.6

Eup 361.7 288.6 297.0 248.7

55 OBS 1198.0 1062.5 1087.3 1076.2 900.3 736.6 570.6 439.5 298.3 202.2

EXP 1218.1 1131.3 1065.3 969.1 850.7 808.3 599.8* 521.5* 401.2* 398.0*

Elow 577.4 483.4 358.0 341.9

Eup 622.1 561.1 447.7 460.7

60 OBS 2563.8 2568.4 2214.1 1990.6 1889.1 1323.7 1124.2 852.8 548.1 350.1

EXP 2535.8 2512.2 2223.5 2036.1 1875.7 1386.7 1317.5* 977.6* 850.1* 653.9*

Elow 1268.4 906.1 758.6 561.8

Eup 1366.6 1051.8 948.7 757.0

65 OBS 5205.3 5272.3 4988.3 4169.8 3812.2 2853.0 1975.3 1836.1 1018.4 746.3

EXP 5081.5 5199.2 4908.6 4224.8 3917.7 3039.5 2247.1* 2134.9* 1584.2* 1377.5*

Elow 2163.4 1978.8 1413.6 1183.4

Eup 2330.8 2297.0 1768.0 1594.6

70 OBS 9794.6 9817.8 9464.6 8614.6 7596.6 6200.3 4206.9 3359.8 2370.7 1451.7

EXP 9783.7 9771.0 9527.2 8746.6 7623.7 5953.8 4619.1* 3414.9* 3244.5* 2407.5*

Elow 4446.9 3165.2 2895.1 2068.2

Eup 4791.2 3674.1 3620.8 2786.9

75 OBS 18071.9 18024.6 16845.9 16161.8 15098.3 11502.5 9309.3 7649.8 4395.6 3218.7

EXP 18071.9 18041.0 17170.0 16279.9 15135.7 11110.4 8676.6* 6731.5* 4976.7* 4728.3*

Elow 8353.3 6239.2 4440.8 4062.0

Eup 8999.9 7242.5 5553.9 5473.3

30-79 OBS 2071.1 2063.4 1964.4 1806.2 1651.1 1267.4 963.0 798.2 495.0 341.8

EXP 2075.0 2068.6 1961.9 1801.1 1652.2 1273.8 1009.8* 810.7* 664.9* 564.9*

Elow 972.1 751.4 593.3 485.3

Eup 1047.4 872.3 742.0 653.9






1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 - OBS 43.0 48.0 51.0 48.0 52.0 46.0 50.0 43.0 22.0 13.0

EXP 44.6 42.4 54.4 48.8 52.3 47.7 49.8* 44.7* 32.9* 23.9*

CHI 0.058 0.740 0.208 0.013 0.002 0.062 0.001 0.063 3.598 4.956

35 - OBS 68.0 74.0 98.0 107.0 98.0 85.0 76.0 82.0 48.0 34.0

EXP 79.7 92.9 83.6 101.7 91.8 84.7 80.3* 81.4* 72.7* 54.5*

CHI 1.729 3.858 2.464 0.279 0.417 0.001 0.234 0.005 8.415 7.718

40 - OBS 114.0 148.0 211.0 188.0 228.0 153.0 130.0 138.0 100.0 77.0

EXP 145.7 176.7 195.9 167.9 206.3 158.7 151.2* 140.7* 141.6* 128.3*

CHI 6.898 4.659 1.170 2.411 2.281 0.204 2.970 0.052 12.206 20.521

45 - OBS 226.0 265.0 312.0 376.0 268.0 271.0 230.0 212.0 151.0 140.0

EXP 239.8 268.1 307.9 327.1 283.4 297.2 232.6* 220.3* 204.5* 207.9*

CHI 0.792 0.037 0.055 7.313 0.841 2.308 0.028 0.315 13.981 22.196

50 - OBS 604.0 408.0 510.0 549.0 565.0 376.0 392.0 338.0 218.0 192.0

EXP 651.5 436.3 465.1 512.2 549.5 404.8 430.6* 335.1* 319.3* 299.1*

CHI 3.459 1.838 4.329 2.651 0.437 2.049 3.454 0.026 32.139 38.326

55 - OBS 1315.0 1092.0 759.0 852.0 900.0 704.0 551.0 519.0 358.0 235.0

EXP 1337.0 1162.8 743.7 767.2 850.4 772.5 579.2* 615.9* 481.5* 462.7*

CHI 0.363 4.305 0.317 9.362 2.891 6.075 1.369 15.242 31.672 112.036

60 - OBS 2517.0 2525.0 2068.0 1259.0 1364.0 1208.0 994.0 768.0 612.0 398.0

EXP 2489.4 2469.7 2076.8 1287.7 1354.3 1265.5 1164.9* 880.4* 949.2* 743.5*

CHI 0.306 1.238 0.037 0.641 0.070 2.616 25.071 14.342 119.816 160.552

65 - OBS 3669.0 4324.0 4138.0 3351.0 2074.0 1815.0 1600.0 1449.0 840.0 773.0

EXP 3581.7 4264.0 4071.9 3395.2 2131.4 1933.6 1820.2* 1684.8* 1306.7* 1426.8*

CHI 2.129 0.843 1.073 0.575 1.545 7.274 26.632 33.012 166.692 299.584

70 - OBS 4704.0 5257.0 5914.0 5542.0 4857.0 2718.0 2243.0 2285.0 1616.0 1063.0

EXP 4698.8 5232.0 5953.1 5626.9 4874.3 2609.9 2462.8* 2322.5* 2211.6* 1762.9*

CHI 0.006 0.120 0.257 1.282 0.062 4.475 19.608 0.605 160.419 277.883

75 - OBS 5792.0 5737.0 5955.0 6751.0 6625.0 5310.0 3006.0 3153.0 2365.0 1791.0

EXP 5792.0 5742.2 6069.5 6800.3 6641.4 5129.0 2801.7* 2774.5* 2677.6* 2631.0*

CHI 0.000 0.005 2.162 0.358 0.041 6.391 14.895 51.637 36.502 268.166

30-79 OBS 19052.0 19878.0 20016.0 19023.0 17031.0 12686.0 9272.0 8987.0 6330.0 4716.0

EXP 19060.2 19887.1 20021.9 19035.0 17035.2 12703.6 9773.1* 9100.2* 8397.7* 7740.5*

O/E 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.949 0.988 0.754 0.609








Cohort Period


CALENDAR YEAR 0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988








RATE (LOG10 SCALE)

YEAR OF DEATH 0.90

1.60

2.30

3.00

3.70

4.40

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008





30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-

1991- OBS 29.3 53.0 104.5 178.7 317.4 570.6 1124.2 1975.3 4206.9 9309.3

PRE 29.2 56.0 121.6 180.7 348.7 599.8 1317.5 2247.1 4619.1 8676.6

RES 0.120 -3.019 -17.042 -1.993 -31.227 -29.163 -193.283 -271.813 -412.157 632.640

1996- OBS 23.8 47.8 96.3 172.5 270.6 439.5 852.8 1836.1 3359.8 7649.8

PRE 24.7 47.5 98.2 179.2 268.2 521.5 977.6 2134.9 3414.9 6731.5

RES -0.928 0.362 -1.881 -6.775 2.346 -82.045 -124.780 -298.840 -55.130 918.334

2001- OBS 14.0 26.6 58.8 106.9 181.7 298.3 548.1 1018.4 2370.7 4395.6

PRE 21.0 40.3 83.3 144.7 266.1 401.2 850.1 1584.2 3244.5 4976.7

RES -6.941 -13.691 -24.446 -37.845 -84.420 -102.896 -302.014 -565.819 -873.799 -581.058

2006- OBS 9.7 21.3 42.4 82.6 137.9 202.2 350.1 746.3 1451.7 3218.7

PRE 17.8 34.1 70.6 122.7 214.9 398.0 653.9 1377.5 2407.5 4728.3

RES -8.106 -12.844 -28.233 -40.096 -76.917 -195.856 -303.881 -631.210 -955.833 -1509.544


30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-

1991- OBS 50.0 76.0 130.0 230.0 392.0 551.0 994.0 1600.0 2243.0 3006.0

PRE 49.8 80.3 151.2 232.6 430.6 579.2 1164.9 1820.2 2462.8 2801.7

CHI 0.001 0.234 2.970 0.028 3.454 1.369 25.071 26.632 19.608 14.895

1996- OBS 43.0 82.0 138.0 212.0 338.0 519.0 768.0 1449.0 2285.0 3153.0

PRE 44.7 81.4 140.7 220.3 335.1 615.9 880.4 1684.8 2322.5 2774.5

CHI 0.063 0.005 0.052 0.315 0.026 15.242 14.342 33.012 0.605 51.637

2001- OBS 22.0 48.0 100.0 151.0 218.0 358.0 612.0 840.0 1616.0 2365.0

PRE 32.9 72.7 141.6 204.5 319.3 481.5 949.2 1306.7 2211.6 2677.6

CHI 3.598 8.415 12.206 13.981 32.139 31.672 119.816 166.692 160.419 36.502

2006- OBS 13.0 34.0 77.0 140.0 192.0 235.0 398.0 773.0 1063.0 1791.0

PRE 23.9 54.5 128.3 207.9 299.1 462.7 743.5 1426.8 1762.9 2631.0

CHI 4.956 7.718 20.521 22.196 38.326 112.036 160.552 299.584 277.883 268.166



Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value



AGE-ONLY 228.52 4.48 51 P, C 97.07 1215.12 0.0000






30 1.127703 13.418481

35 1.637170 43.368100

40 2.111303 129.211946

45 2.536689 344.103285

50 2.884053 765.690198

55 3.163361 1456.670915

60 3.384698 2424.924413

65 3.546227 3517.439827

70 3.646385 4429.812421

75 3.688014 4875.446235


1961 0.001948 1.004495

1966 -0.001015 0.997666

1971 0.000337 1.000777

1976 0.005739 1.013303

1981 0.003912 1.009049

1986 -0.012317 0.972038


1886 -0.133204 0.735861

1891 -0.020269 0.954402

1896 0.048417 1.117936

1901 0.080188 1.202784

1906 0.035672 1.085605

1911 -0.047607 0.896176

1916 -0.081017 0.829818

1921 -0.060531 0.869899

1926 -0.041916 0.907997

1931 -0.006100 0.986052

1936 -0.054712 0.881633

1941 0.031850 1.076092

1946 0.070070 1.175088

1951 0.066510 1.165494

1956 -0.053228 0.884652






1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-

30 - OBS 19.0 18.0 20.0 14.0 13.0 16.0

EXP 14.6 13.1 19.6 21.6 19.4 16.0

CHI 1.4 1.8 0.0 2.6 2.1 0.0

35 - OBS 44.0 51.0 51.0 56.0 56.0 65.0

EXP 45.2 47.3 42.7 62.8 67.6 60.0

CHI 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 2.0 0.4

40 - OBS 94.0 125.0 140.0 128.0 177.0 207.0

EXP 99.4 133.6 140.8 125.6 181.7 191.1

CHI 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3

45 - OBS 200.0 249.0 346.0 384.0 325.0 466.0

EXP 218.7 259.4 349.9 366.9 321.2 455.5

CHI 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2

50 - OBS 745.0 440.0 570.0 773.0 800.0 641.0

EXP 751.2 468.3 561.1 753.3 774.7 662.4

CHI 0.1 1.7 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7

55 - OBS 1771.0 1331.0 842.0 1019.0 1365.0 1282.0

EXP 1743.6 1338.5 844.4 1016.6 1334.1 1334.4

CHI 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.1

60 - OBS 2911.0 2574.0 2001.0 1320.0 1547.0 1915.0

EXP 2876.2 2582.0 2031.3 1289.6 1536.9 1953.2

CHI 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.7

65 - OBS 2729.0 3496.0 3221.0 2564.0 1580.0 1886.0

EXP 2784.1 3461.6 3170.1 2566.9 1602.3 1892.1

CHI 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.0

70 - OBS 2057.0 2680.0 3279.0 3094.0 2563.0 1605.0

EXP 2039.6 2645.5 3331.9 3134.9 2561.2 1566.4

CHI 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.0

75 - OBS 1155.0 1460.0 1948.0 2465.0 2313.0 2005.0

EXP 1155.0 1477.6 1928.2 2482.1 2343.5 1960.6

CHI 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.0








AGE-ONLY 5413.60 135.34 40 P, C 48.60 0.0000

AGE-PERIOD 695.10 17.38 40 Cohort -300.32 0.0000


PERIOD-COHORT 2112.18 52.80 40 Age -31.74 0.0000


AGE EFFECT

30 13.418481

35 43.368100

40 129.211946

45 344.103285

50 765.690198

55 1456.670915

60 2424.924413

65 3517.439827

70 4429.812421

75 4875.446235


% Period Change 96.3321 93.3321 99.3321

1961 1.004495

1966 0.997666

1971 1.000777

1976 1.013303

1981 1.009049

1986 0.972038

1991 0.936385 0.907224 0.965546

1996 0.902039 0.846731 0.959097

2001 0.868953 0.790272 0.952691

2006 0.837081 0.737577 0.946328


1886 0.735861 1.000000

1891 0.954402 2.000000

1896 1.117936 4.000000

1901 1.202784 8.000000

1906 1.085605 16.000000

1911 0.896176 32.000000

1916 0.829818 64.000000

1921 0.869899 128.000000

1926 0.907997 256.000000

1931 0.986052 512.000000

1936 0.881633 1024.000000

1941 1.076092 2048.000000

1946 1.175088 4096.000000

1951 1.165494 8192.000000

1956 1.240173 EXTRAPOLATION 0.884652











1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 OBS 17.4 16.2 14.8 10.4 10.6 11.5 9.4 10.5 9.6 4.5

EXP 13.3 11.8 14.5 16.0 15.8 16.2 16.4* 16.6* 16.8* 17.0*

Elow 15.9 15.6 15.3 15.0

Eup 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.3

35 OBS 38.5 46.0 45.8 42.1 42.6 53.2 36.2 28.6 23.8 22.5

EXP 39.6 42.7 38.3 47.3 51.4 49.1 50.4* 51.0* 51.7* 52.4*

Elow 48.8 47.9 47.0 46.2

Eup 51.9 54.3 56.7 59.2

40 OBS 106.8 109.5 126.8 117.7 136.7 159.9 160.8 109.6 71.7 57.2

EXP 112.9 117.1 127.5 115.4 140.3 147.6 141.0* 144.5* 146.5* 148.4*

Elow 136.6 135.7 133.2 130.7

Eup 145.4 153.7 160.6 167.7

45 OBS 262.3 286.6 309.2 359.9 309.7 368.3 344.9 331.1 261.2 197.1

EXP 286.8 298.6 312.7 343.8 306.1 359.9 378.6* 361.8* 370.8* 375.7*

Elow 366.8 339.6 337.2 331.0

Eup 390.4 384.6 406.6 424.7

50 OBS 683.6 595.7 677.1 722.9 786.7 635.0 696.4 649.2 636.7 485.7

EXP 689.3 633.9 666.6 704.5 761.8 656.2 771.5* 811.6* 775.5* 794.9*

Elow 747.5 761.8 705.2 700.4

Eup 795.6 863.0 850.2 898.6

55 OBS 1613.4 1295.0 1206.2 1287.1 1365.5 1341.4 1078.1 1122.8 1044.0 1034.0

EXP 1588.5 1302.4 1209.7 1284.0 1334.6 1396.2 1202.6* 1414.0* 1487.4* 1421.1*

Elow 1165.1 1327.3 1352.7 1252.2

Eup 1240.0 1503.4 1630.7 1606.6

60 OBS 2965.2 2618.3 2142.4 2087.1 2142.6 2098.3 2052.7 1591.3 1580.6 1487.3

EXP 2929.8 2626.4 2174.8 2039.0 2128.5 2140.3 2239.0* 1928.5* 2267.5* 2385.3*

Elow 2169.3 1810.2 2062.2 2101.7

Eup 2308.7 2050.4 2486.0 2696.6

65 OBS 3871.7 4262.7 3882.8 3190.5 2904.2 2964.6 2858.0 2705.4 1964.0 2089.3

EXP 3949.9 4220.8 3821.5 3194.2 2945.2 2974.3 2990.6* 3128.6* 2694.7* 3168.4*

Elow 2897.5 2936.8 2450.7 2791.8

Eup 3083.8 3326.5 2954.4 3581.9

70 OBS 4283.0 5005.1 5247.6 4809.4 4008.7 3661.3 3636.7 3276.0 3073.3 2402.2

EXP 4246.8 4940.7 5332.2 4873.0 4005.8 3573.2 3608.3* 3628.2* 3795.6* 3269.2*

Elow 3496.0 3405.8 3451.9 2880.6

Eup 3720.7 3857.7 4161.4 3695.9

75 OBS 3603.8 4587.1 5510.6 5901.2 5271.3 4343.2 4310.9 3833.4 3561.1 3211.5

EXP 3603.8 4642.3 5454.7 5942.1 5340.7 4247.1 3788.4* 3825.7* 3846.8* 4024.2*

Elow 3670.4 3591.1 3498.4 3545.9

Eup 3906.3 4067.7 4217.5 4549.4

30-79 OBS 1232.9 1263.3 1244.7 1198.6 1129.0 1066.6 1026.0 925.7 825.2 745.4

EXP 1234.9 1266.6 1244.4 1195.8 1128.3 1068.9 1059.6* 1070.5* 1084.5* 1103.7*

Elow 1026.6 1004.8 986.3 972.5

Eup 1092.6 1138.2 1189.1 1247.7






1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 - OBS 19.0 18.0 20.0 14.0 13.0 16.0 16.0 19.0 15.0 6.0

EXP 14.6 13.1 19.6 21.6 19.4 22.4 28.0* 30.0* 26.4* 22.9*

CHI 1.359 1.849 0.009 2.649 2.096 1.843 5.121 4.021 4.895 12.449

35 - OBS 44.0 51.0 51.0 56.0 56.0 65.0 52.0 49.0 43.0 36.0

EXP 45.2 47.3 42.7 62.8 67.6 60.0 72.3* 87.5* 93.4* 83.6*

CHI 0.033 0.293 1.633 0.746 1.979 0.414 5.685 16.922 27.212 27.140

40 - OBS 94.0 125.0 140.0 128.0 177.0 207.0 200.0 157.0 122.0 104.0

EXP 99.4 133.6 140.8 125.6 181.7 191.1 175.3* 207.1* 249.0* 269.7*

CHI 0.294 0.552 0.005 0.046 0.120 1.325 3.467 12.136 64.795 101.786

45 - OBS 200.0 249.0 346.0 384.0 325.0 466.0 444.0 407.0 369.0 334.0

EXP 218.7 259.4 349.9 366.9 321.2 455.5 487.4* 444.7* 523.9* 636.6*

CHI 1.602 0.419 0.043 0.800 0.044 0.244 3.863 3.196 45.793 143.811

50 - OBS 745.0 440.0 570.0 773.0 800.0 641.0 860.0 811.0 764.0 676.0

EXP 751.2 468.3 561.1 753.3 774.7 662.4 952.8* 1013.9* 930.5* 1106.4*

CHI 0.051 1.705 0.141 0.517 0.825 0.693 9.031 40.607 29.805 167.421

55 - OBS 1771.0 1331.0 842.0 1019.0 1365.0 1282.0 1041.0 1326.0 1253.0 1202.0

EXP 1743.6 1338.5 844.4 1016.6 1334.1 1334.4 1161.2* 1669.8* 1785.1* 1652.0*

CHI 0.430 0.043 0.007 0.006 0.716 2.057 12.445 70.784 158.603 122.597

60 - OBS 2911.0 2574.0 2001.0 1320.0 1547.0 1915.0 1815.0 1433.0 1765.0 1691.0

EXP 2876.2 2582.0 2031.3 1289.6 1536.9 1953.2 1979.7* 1736.6* 2532.0* 2711.9*

CHI 0.420 0.025 0.452 0.717 0.067 0.749 13.697 53.079 232.345 384.346

65 - OBS 2729.0 3496.0 3221.0 2564.0 1580.0 1886.0 2315.0 2135.0 1620.0 2164.0

EXP 2784.1 3461.6 3170.1 2566.9 1602.3 1892.1 2422.5* 2469.0* 2222.7* 3281.8*

CHI 1.092 0.341 0.816 0.003 0.311 0.020 4.767 45.190 163.426 380.716

70 - OBS 2057.0 2680.0 3279.0 3094.0 2563.0 1605.0 1939.0 2228.0 2095.0 1759.0

EXP 2039.6 2645.5 3331.9 3134.9 2561.2 1566.4 1923.9* 2467.6* 2587.3* 2393.9*

CHI 0.148 0.449 0.839 0.534 0.001 0.954 0.119 23.262 93.689 168.384

75 - OBS 1155.0 1460.0 1948.0 2465.0 2313.0 2005.0 1392.0 1580.0 1916.0 1787.0

EXP 1155.0 1477.6 1928.2 2482.1 2343.5 1960.6 1223.3* 1576.8* 2069.7* 2239.2*

CHI 0.000 0.209 0.203 0.118 0.396 1.005 23.271 0.006 11.415 91.325

30-79 OBS 11725.0 12424.0 12418.0 11817.0 10739.0 10088.0 10074.0 10145.0 9962.0 9759.0

EXP 11727.7 12426.9 12420.0 11820.3 10742.5 10098.1 10426.2* 11703.0* 13020.1* 14398.0*

O/E 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.966 0.867 0.765 0.678








Cohort Period


CALENDAR YEAR 0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988








RATE (LOG10 SCALE)

YEAR OF DEATH 0.60

1.30

2.00

2.70

3.40

4.10

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008





30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-

1991- OBS 9.4 36.2 160.8 344.9 696.4 1078.1 2052.7 2858.0 3636.7 4310.9

PRE 16.4 50.4 141.0 378.6 771.5 1202.6 2239.0 2990.6 3608.3 3788.4

RES -7.013 -14.126 19.829 -33.706 -75.118 -124.492 -186.241 -132.672 28.376 522.514

1996- OBS 10.5 28.6 109.6 331.1 649.2 1122.8 1591.3 2705.4 3276.0 3833.4

PRE 16.6 51.0 144.5 361.8 811.6 1414.0 1928.5 3128.6 3628.2 3825.7

RES -6.081 -22.443 -34.988 -30.671 -162.423 -291.119 -337.150 -423.262 -352.275 7.737

2001- OBS 9.6 23.8 71.7 261.2 636.7 1044.0 1580.6 1964.0 3073.3 3561.1

PRE 16.8 51.7 146.5 370.8 775.5 1487.4 2267.5 2694.7 3795.6 3846.8

RES -7.250 -27.901 -74.703 -109.634 -138.784 -443.357 -686.876 -730.686 -722.270 -285.678

2006- OBS 4.5 22.5 57.2 197.1 485.7 1034.0 1487.3 2089.3 2402.2 3211.5

PRE 17.0 52.4 148.4 375.7 794.9 1421.1 2385.3 3168.4 3269.2 4024.2

RES -12.574 -29.835 -91.157 -178.575 -309.211 -387.140 -897.959 -1079.169 -867.037 -812.696


30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-

1991- OBS 16.0 52.0 200.0 444.0 860.0 1041.0 1815.0 2315.0 1939.0 1392.0

PRE 28.0 72.3 175.3 487.4 952.8 1161.2 1979.7 2422.5 1923.9 1223.3

CHI 5.121 5.685 3.467 3.863 9.031 12.445 13.697 4.767 0.119 23.271

1996- OBS 19.0 49.0 157.0 407.0 811.0 1326.0 1433.0 2135.0 2228.0 1580.0

PRE 30.0 87.5 207.1 444.7 1013.9 1669.8 1736.6 2469.0 2467.6 1576.8

CHI 4.021 16.922 12.136 3.196 40.607 70.784 53.079 45.190 23.262 0.006

2001- OBS 15.0 43.0 122.0 369.0 764.0 1253.0 1765.0 1620.0 2095.0 1916.0

PRE 26.4 93.4 249.0 523.9 930.5 1785.1 2532.0 2222.7 2587.3 2069.7

CHI 4.895 27.212 64.795 45.793 29.805 158.603 232.345 163.426 93.689 11.415

2006- OBS 6.0 36.0 104.0 334.0 676.0 1202.0 1691.0 2164.0 1759.0 1787.0

PRE 22.9 83.6 269.7 636.6 1106.4 1652.0 2711.9 3281.8 2393.9 2239.2

CHI 12.449 27.140 101.786 143.811 167.421 122.597 384.346 380.716 168.384 91.325



Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value



AGE-ONLY 389.43 7.64 51 P, C 98.02 2090.50 0.0000






30 1.083370 12.116288

35 1.396665 24.926689

40 1.607640 40.517252

45 1.895383 78.592835

50 2.238463 173.166338

55 2.550127 354.916868

60 2.847141 703.300305

65 3.121963 1324.227859

70 3.373022 2360.599893

75 3.608049 4055.547114


1961 -0.053148 0.884814

1966 0.174609 1.494890

1971 -0.039399 0.913275

1976 -0.087085 0.818304

1981 -0.039544 0.912969

1986 -0.082891 0.826246


1886 -0.047467 0.896465

1891 -0.050465 0.890298

1896 0.017791 1.041815

1901 0.052819 1.129326

1906 0.033989 1.081406

1911 -0.034628 0.923362

1916 -0.032753 0.927357

1921 -0.042444 0.906893

1926 -0.058442 0.874093

1931 -0.014352 0.967492

1936 -0.035044 0.922477

1941 -0.042471 0.906836

1946 -0.026349 0.941133

1951 -0.039920 0.912179

1956 0.158590 1.440756






1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-

30 - OBS 10.0 15.0 15.0 17.0 10.0 20.0

EXP 11.4 18.5 13.6 12.6 12.4 20.0

CHI 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0

35 - OBS 18.0 33.0 21.0 30.0 32.0 25.0

EXP 22.0 39.9 23.4 24.6 28.1 22.9

CHI 0.7 1.2 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.2

40 - OBS 25.0 57.0 40.0 46.0 44.0 30.0

EXP 28.6 60.4 39.5 33.3 43.4 40.8

CHI 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.9 0.0 2.9

45 - OBS 40.0 81.0 87.0 69.0 75.0 66.0

EXP 49.2 92.6 70.2 66.4 69.5 74.5

CHI 1.7 1.4 4.0 0.1 0.4 1.0

50 - OBS 143.0 186.0 129.0 144.0 152.0 117.0

EXP 154.2 177.3 120.7 132.4 155.5 133.2

CHI 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.1 2.0

55 - OBS 384.0 480.0 207.0 211.0 287.0 279.0

EXP 372.8 503.5 209.8 208.5 283.1 271.2

CHI 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2

60 - OBS 711.0 1115.0 556.0 322.0 442.0 435.0

EXP 689.9 1117.7 553.9 337.5 420.4 463.6

CHI 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 1.8

65 - OBS 862.0 1869.0 1078.0 813.0 589.0 612.0

EXP 860.4 1833.5 1084.9 804.1 609.9 631.2

CHI 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6

70 - OBS 886.0 1966.0 1501.0 1344.0 1264.0 830.0

EXP 893.1 1968.6 1521.3 1343.9 1272.3 792.9

CHI 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.7

75 - OBS 1031.0 1725.0 1365.0 1528.0 1755.0 1459.0

EXP 1031.0 1718.0 1364.0 1565.5 1756.9 1428.3

CHI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.7








AGE-ONLY 3057.87 76.45 40 P, C 82.07 0.0000

AGE-PERIOD 1714.86 42.87 40 Cohort 68.02 0.0000

AGE-COHORT 366.25 9.16 40 Period -49.74 0.0000



AGE EFFECT

30 12.116288

35 24.926689

40 40.517252

45 78.592835

50 173.166338

55 354.916868

60 703.300305

65 1324.227859

70 2360.599893

75 4055.547114


% Period Change 90.5010 87.5010 93.5010

1961 0.884814

1966 1.494890

1971 0.913275

1976 0.818304

1981 0.912969

1986 0.826246

1991 0.747760 0.722973 0.772548

1996 0.676730 0.632608 0.722340

2001 0.612448 0.553539 0.675395

2006 0.554271 0.484352 0.631501


1886 0.896465 1.000000

1891 0.890298 2.000000

1896 1.041815 4.000000

1901 1.129326 8.000000

1906 1.081406 16.000000

1911 0.923362 32.000000

1916 0.927357 64.000000

1921 0.906893 128.000000

1926 0.874093 256.000000

1931 0.967492 512.000000

1936 0.922477 1024.000000

1941 0.906836 2048.000000

1946 0.941133 4096.000000

1951 0.912179 8192.000000

1956 0.914787 EXTRAPOLATION 1.440756











1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 OBS 9.1 13.5 11.1 12.6 8.1 14.4 5.9 2.8 1.3 1.5

EXP 10.4 16.7 10.0 9.3 10.1 9.2 8.3* 7.5* 6.7* 6.1*

Elow 8.0 7.0 6.1 5.3

Eup 8.5 8.0 7.4 6.9

35 OBS 15.7 29.8 18.8 22.6 24.4 20.5 12.5 11.1 7.7 8.8

EXP 19.3 36.1 21.0 18.5 21.4 18.8 17.1* 15.4* 13.9* 12.5*

Elow 16.5 14.4 12.5 10.9

Eup 17.6 16.4 15.3 14.3

40 OBS 28.4 49.9 36.2 42.3 34.0 23.2 20.1 20.2 14.7 14.3

EXP 32.5 52.9 35.8 30.6 33.5 31.5 27.6* 25.1* 22.6* 20.4*

Elow 26.7 23.4 20.5 17.8

Eup 28.6 26.8 25.0 23.3

45 OBS 52.5 93.2 77.8 64.7 71.5 52.2 40.4 48.0 40.3 41.3

EXP 64.5 106.5 62.7 62.2 66.2 58.9 55.3* 48.5* 44.0* 39.7*

Elow 53.5 45.4 39.8 34.7

Eup 57.1 51.8 48.6 45.3

50 OBS 131.2 251.8 153.2 134.7 149.5 115.9 102.0 88.9 115.0 88.4

EXP 141.5 240.1 143.4 123.9 153.0 132.0 117.4* 110.3* 96.7* 87.8*

Elow 113.5 103.1 87.4 76.7

Eup 121.3 117.7 106.7 100.0

55 OBS 349.8 467.0 296.5 266.5 287.1 291.9 199.9 221.0 203.3 234.8

EXP 339.6 489.9 300.6 263.4 283.2 283.7 244.8* 217.8* 204.6* 179.4*

Elow 236.7 203.6 184.9 156.8

Eup 252.9 232.5 225.6 204.4

60 OBS 724.2 1134.2 595.3 509.1 612.2 476.6 480.7 390.9 435.2 452.1

EXP 702.8 1136.9 593.1 533.7 582.3 507.9 508.8* 439.0* 390.6* 366.9*

Elow 491.9 410.4 353.0 320.6

Eup 525.7 468.6 430.8 418.0

65 OBS 1223.0 2278.9 1299.5 1011.7 1082.6 962.0 995.0 906.0 853.5 795.5

EXP 1220.7 2235.6 1307.8 1000.6 1121.2 992.3 865.5* 867.0* 748.1* 665.6*

Elow 836.8 810.5 676.2 581.6

Eup 894.2 925.4 825.0 758.3

70 OBS 1844.8 3671.6 2402.2 2089.1 1977.0 1893.4 1659.9 1495.4 1811.7 1267.3

EXP 1859.6 3676.4 2434.7 2088.9 1990.0 1808.8 1600.8* 1396.4* 1398.7* 1207.0*

Elow 1547.7 1305.3 1264.2 1054.7

Eup 1653.9 1490.5 1542.5 1375.2

75 OBS 3216.9 5419.6 3861.4 3658.0 3999.6 3160.5 3140.3 2705.2 3066.7 2668.8

EXP 3216.9 5397.5 3858.7 3747.9 4004.0 3094.1 2812.3* 2489.0* 2171.1* 2174.8*

Elow 2719.1 2326.7 1962.3 1900.5

Eup 2905.5 2656.7 2394.2 2477.8

30-79 OBS 440.7 772.9 490.2 431.1 455.6 392.1 365.6 327.2 356.9 310.4

EXP 442.2 773.8 489.7 431.4 455.7 392.3 354.2* 319.7* 290.9* 267.4*

Elow 342.5 298.9 262.9 233.7

Eup 366.0 341.3 320.8 304.7






1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-

30 - OBS 10.0 15.0 15.0 17.0 10.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 2.0 2.0

EXP 11.4 18.5 13.6 12.6 12.4 12.7 14.1* 13.5* 10.5* 8.1*

CHI 0.162 0.669 0.144 1.545 0.460 4.198 1.191 5.314 6.913 4.631

35 - OBS 18.0 33.0 21.0 30.0 32.0 25.0 18.0 19.0 14.0 14.0

EXP 22.0 39.9 23.4 24.6 28.1 22.9 24.5* 26.4* 25.1* 20.0*

CHI 0.739 1.209 0.248 1.194 0.530 0.183 1.710 2.059 4.891 1.795

40 - OBS 25.0 57.0 40.0 46.0 44.0 30.0 25.0 29.0 25.0 26.0

EXP 28.6 60.4 39.5 33.3 43.4 40.8 34.4* 35.9* 38.5* 37.1*

CHI 0.459 0.194 0.005 4.866 0.007 2.855 2.552 1.341 4.720 3.321

45 - OBS 40.0 81.0 87.0 69.0 75.0 66.0 52.0 59.0 57.0 70.0

EXP 49.2 92.6 70.2 66.4 69.5 74.5 71.2* 59.6* 62.2* 67.3*

CHI 1.712 1.443 4.019 0.102 0.442 0.973 5.176 0.007 0.436 0.108

50 - OBS 143.0 186.0 129.0 144.0 152.0 117.0 126.0 111.0 138.0 123.0

EXP 154.2 177.3 120.7 132.4 155.5 133.2 145.0* 137.8* 116.1* 122.2*

CHI 0.812 0.424 0.567 1.010 0.081 1.980 2.491 5.204 4.136 0.005

55 - OBS 384.0 480.0 207.0 211.0 287.0 279.0 193.0 261.0 244.0 273.0

EXP 372.8 503.5 209.8 208.5 283.1 271.2 236.4* 257.2* 245.5* 208.6*

CHI 0.339 1.097 0.038 0.029 0.053 0.227 7.969 0.056 0.009 19.883

60 - OBS 711.0 1115.0 556.0 322.0 442.0 435.0 425.0 352.0 486.0 514.0

EXP 689.9 1117.7 553.9 337.5 420.4 463.6 449.9* 395.4* 436.2* 417.1*

CHI 0.644 0.007 0.008 0.716 1.105 1.759 1.375 4.757 5.692 22.502

65 - OBS 862.0 1869.0 1078.0 813.0 589.0 612.0 806.0 715.0 704.0 824.0

EXP 860.4 1833.5 1084.9 804.1 609.9 631.2 701.1* 684.2* 617.1* 689.4*

CHI 0.003 0.689 0.044 0.099 0.719 0.587 15.698 1.384 12.237 26.274

70 - OBS 886.0 1966.0 1501.0 1344.0 1264.0 830.0 885.0 1017.0 1235.0 928.0

EXP 893.1 1968.6 1521.3 1343.9 1272.3 792.9 853.5* 949.7* 953.5* 883.8*

CHI 0.056 0.003 0.272 0.000 0.054 1.736 1.162 4.773 83.119 2.208

75 - OBS 1031.0 1725.0 1365.0 1528.0 1755.0 1459.0 1014.0 1115.0 1650.0 1485.0

EXP 1031.0 1718.0 1364.0 1565.5 1756.9 1428.3 908.1* 1025.9* 1168.1* 1210.1*

CHI 0.000 0.029 0.001 0.900 0.002 0.658 12.350 7.744 198.781 62.433

30-79 OBS 4110.0 7527.0 4999.0 4524.0 4650.0 3873.0 3554.0 3683.0 4555.0 4259.0

EXP 4112.6 7530.0 5001.5 4528.8 4651.7 3871.4 3438.1* 3585.5* 3672.8* 3663.8*

O/E 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.034 1.027 1.240 1.162








Cohort Period


CALENDAR YEAR 0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988








RATE (LOG10 SCALE)

YEAR OF DEATH 0.10

0.80

1.50

2.20

2.90

3.60

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008


Aust

osmond and gardner modelling austria ihd, males, based on ... · osmond and gardner modelling...

Documents