orlov aspo2011 planning[1]
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/3/2019 Orlov ASPO2011 Planning[1]
1/7
Post-Collapse Planning
Dmitry OrlovASPO 2011
Hubbert Curve is not lopsided enough The general symmetrical shape is familiar by
now. But it is misleading when applied to all ofEarth
Gradual decline after peak is accurate forcountries that can call on resources from the
rest of the world USSR couldn't do that, and collapsed in 1990,~3 years after hitting its Peak Oil
USA would have collapsed in 1973 or 1974 World economy should collapse within a
decade after global Peak Oil (no other planetsare there to rescue us)
Planet Earth Cannot Im ort Oil
-
8/3/2019 Orlov ASPO2011 Planning[1]
2/7
A very simple model
A very simple model
Rate of resource extraction is proportional to thesize of the economy and the size of the resourcebase:
r = k * R * E
This model isn't accurate post-peak withoutimports, because it doesn't provide for fossil fueleconomy's costs: pollution, bureaucracy,complexity, diminishing EROEI, etc.
-
8/3/2019 Orlov ASPO2011 Planning[1]
3/7
A more realistic model
A more realistic model
Prof. Ugo Bardi's Seneca Cliff model; still verysimple, reproduced using a spreadsheet
Assumes that about a third of the resourcesgets diverted to the pollution category
Still misleading, because it assumes continuity:pollution dissipates gradually over time In reality, complex systems do not gradually
decomplexify; they collapse (Joseph Tainter) Collapse is more of an event than a process
(for most people)
-
8/3/2019 Orlov ASPO2011 Planning[1]
4/7
Planning for post-collapse
Post-collapse solutions do not work prior to
collapse (non-competitive) Ambitious projects are impossible to improvise
after collapse (supply chains broken,transportation and commerce at a standstill,etc.)
Basic needs: food, shelter, transportation,medicine, security
A reasonable approach is:
Prepare But Do Not Execute
Best-case scenario
-
8/3/2019 Orlov ASPO2011 Planning[1]
5/7
Best-case scenario
Shortly after Peak Oil occurs, people start
planning, setting aside supplies, recruiting andtraining
Once the fossil fuel economy crashes, peoplestart executing on these plans
Economy quickly reboots into a new operatingsystem that has much lower resourcerequirements for meeting basic needs
Best-case scenario
PeakOil
Collapse
-
8/3/2019 Orlov ASPO2011 Planning[1]
6/7
Peak Oil may be hard to detect
Are wethere yet?
Are wethere yet?
Are wethere yet?
Interim activities
Counterproductive
Accumulatefinancial assets
Make debt
payments Look for a job Protest, lobby, vote Pretend that
Everything will beall right
Productive
Plan Recruit Train
Educate Stockpile Provide support Rest
-
8/3/2019 Orlov ASPO2011 Planning[1]
7/7
Deciding when to pull the rip-cord
Collapse may mean different things to different
people Too early, too late: equally bad Official statistics are misleading Local metrics of societal well-being (or lack
thereof) may be more useful Need to start before the situation ceases to be
survivable for a large chunk of the population
The case for post-collapse investing
No good places to put (smart) money If you have $100M and think that there is a 1%
chance of collapse, invest $1M in post-collapse A well-stored inventory of durable supplies will
not depreciate Can be seen as a hedge against supply chaindisruptions
Overall, a low-risk proposition: investmentretains value both pre- and post-collapse