OrientationOrientationOrientationOrientation

Storm-Based WarningsStorm-Based WarningsA Presentation for NOAA’s NWS A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS

ManagersManagersbyby

Warning Decision Training BranchWarning Decision Training Branch

Storm-Based WarningsStorm-Based WarningsA Presentation for NOAA’s NWS A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS

ManagersManagersbyby

Warning Decision Training BranchWarning Decision Training Branch

Here is the Outline of the OrientationHere is the Outline of the OrientationHere is the Outline of the OrientationHere is the Outline of the Orientation

Section 1: Rationale of SBWSection 1: Rationale of SBW

Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training

Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities

Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: Timelines

County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

• More specific• Increased clarity• Supports newdissemination technology

Section 1: Rationale of SBWsSection 1: Rationale of SBWsSection 1: Rationale of SBWsSection 1: Rationale of SBWs

Three simultaneous tornadoes within

line of severe thunderstorms

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned

A Recent Example of SBW with A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead TimeGreater Precision and Lead TimeA Recent Example of SBW with A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead TimeGreater Precision and Lead Time

Graphics provided by Ken Waters (PRH)

Area Area (sq mi)(sq mi)

Coffee Coffee CountyCounty

680.5680.5

Geneva Geneva CountyCounty

578.9578.9

Combined Combined CountiesCounties

1259.41259.4

PolygonPolygon 363.7363.7

71% Reduction !

Storm-Based Warning for

Enterprise, AL Tornado

March 1, 2007

An Extreme Example ofAn Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed AreaFalsely Alarmed Area

An Extreme Example ofAn Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed AreaFalsely Alarmed Area

• Look at the size Look at the size of the SVR in of the SVR in southern CAsouthern CA

• SBW will SBW will significantly significantly reduce size of reduce size of warned areawarned area

Delineation Improves FFWsDelineation Improves FFWsDelineation Improves FFWsDelineation Improves FFWs

Graphic DisseminationGraphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warningsof Storm-Based Warnings

Graphic DisseminationGraphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warningsof Storm-Based Warnings

Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases Warnings Increases

Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases Warnings Increases

Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM Cow)

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cow/

What are the Digital Dissemination What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs?Benefits of SBWs?

What are the Digital Dissemination What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs?Benefits of SBWs?

• Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Emergency Alert System)Emergency Alert System)

• Public can receive warning info on a variety Public can receive warning info on a variety of digital devicesof digital devices– ComputersComputers– Phones Phones – PDAsPDAs– TVTV– Satellite RadioSatellite Radio

SBW Testing Already UnderwaySBW Testing Already UnderwaySBW Testing Already UnderwaySBW Testing Already Underway

• 23 Offices 23 Offices tested SBW tested SBW ‘05‘05

• Little Little change in change in POD POD

• FAR 10% FAR 10% lowerlower

What’s New with the SBW Product?What’s New with the SBW Product?What’s New with the SBW Product?What’s New with the SBW Product?

• Area hatched is described

by encoded polygon

• Direction of Motion added

• Legacy Dissemination Technology is Legacy Dissemination Technology is County Based County Based – TVTV– NOAA Weather Radio NOAA Weather Radio – EAS Activation (FCC) EAS Activation (FCC) – Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based) Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based)

• Multiple Warnings in One County Multiple Warnings in One County

– Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Hard to Describe VerballyVerbally

– VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer ProgramsMultiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs

Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges

• How to convey How to convey uncertainties in uncertainties in Polygons for storm Polygons for storm threat evolutionsthreat evolutions– Deviant movement in Deviant movement in

supercellssupercells– Pulse storms Pulse storms – Flash floodingFlash flooding

Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.)(cont.)

Storm-Based Warning Challenges Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.)(cont.)

Challenges for SB WarningsChallenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area BoundariesCounty Warning Area Boundaries

Challenges for SB WarningsChallenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area BoundariesCounty Warning Area Boundaries

St. Louis CWA

Paducah CWA

Lincoln CWA

Madison

Bond

Clinton

Fayette

Marion

St. Clair

Washington

Randolph

Perry

Jackson

Franklin

Jefferson

Hamilton

WilliamsonSaline

Wayne

Clay

STL

PAH

ILX

Storm-Based Warnings Require New Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance MeasuresSet of Performance Measures

Storm-Based Warnings Require New Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance MeasuresSet of Performance Measures

Measure FY06 FY07(new)

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 75 76

Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 78 75

Tornado Lead Time (min.) 13 13

Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%)

67 69 70 70 72 72

Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%)

74 72 72 72 70 70

Storm-Based Tornado Lead Time (min.)

11 12 12 12 13 13

Government Performance Results Act (GPRA)Tornado Warning Performance Goals

Government Performance Results Act (GPRA)Tornado Warning Performance Goals

Section 2: Overview of the SBW Section 2: Overview of the SBW TrainingTraining

Section 2: Overview of the SBW Section 2: Overview of the SBW TrainingTraining

“To provide training to all warning forecasters on guidance of issuing effective Storm-Based Warnings”

“To provide training to all warning forecasters on guidance of issuing effective Storm-Based Warnings”

Who Should Take the Training?Who Should Take the Training?Who Should Take the Training?Who Should Take the Training?

• Intended AudienceIntended Audience– NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather

Warning ResponsibilityWarning Responsibility

• Pre-requisitesPre-requisites– DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course GraduateDLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate– Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe

Tracks)Tracks)

• Deliverables Deliverables – 2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training )2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training )– Printed materials with DVD Printed materials with DVD

What are the Learning Activities?What are the Learning Activities?What are the Learning Activities?What are the Learning Activities?

++

Online Interactive Modules

WES Job Sheets

Training Content DetailsTraining Content DetailsTraining Content DetailsTraining Content Details

• Using Polygons to Using Polygons to identify threat areas for identify threat areas for multiple storm situationsmultiple storm situations– Isolated and multiple SBW Isolated and multiple SBW

TORs in close proximityTORs in close proximity– SBW TORs in linesSBW TORs in lines– Flash flood SBWs (KS Flash flood SBWs (KS

Turnpike Event)Turnpike Event)

Training Content Details (cont.)Training Content Details (cont.)Training Content Details (cont.)Training Content Details (cont.)

• Polygon issuesPolygon issues– CWA boundariesCWA boundaries– Gaps in warningsGaps in warnings– WarnGen limitsWarnGen limits

What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?

• Effective learning applications using mini-WES casesEffective learning applications using mini-WES cases

Section 3: Roles and Section 3: Roles and ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities

Section 3: Roles and Section 3: Roles and ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities

Traditional Assumption for Traditional Assumption for Performance ImprovementPerformance ImprovementTraditional Assumption for Traditional Assumption for Performance ImprovementPerformance Improvement

Training → Learning → Transfer

= Performance

A New Focus on A New Focus on Performance:Performance:A New Focus on A New Focus on Performance:Performance:

Combination

of → Performance → Results

Interventions

What were MIC Supports that Helped What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? Learning and Performance?

What were MIC Supports that Helped What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? Learning and Performance?

0 20 40 60 80 100

% of Sample

participated in post-mortems

encouraged use

gave reminders to use AWOC

completed tracks

recognized completions

gave positive feedback on fac. skills

provided added time for sims

asked for briefings

Conferred regularly

Arranged for uninterrupted time

Oriented fcsters on AWOC importance

Supports Reported

What Can Management Do to Help What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed?SBWs Succeed?

What Can Management Do to Help What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed?SBWs Succeed?

Ensure 100% training completion for every Ensure 100% training completion for every officeoffice

Work with User Community to prepare for Work with User Community to prepare for Service ChangeService Change

Support improved storm verification Support improved storm verification proceduresprocedures

Require an annual warning skill performance Require an annual warning skill performance assessment (using WES)assessment (using WES)

Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: TimelinesStorm-Based Warning Implementation ScheduleStorm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule

Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: TimelinesStorm-Based Warning Implementation ScheduleStorm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule

F M A M J J A S O N DF M A M J J A S O N D

Forecasters Complete

SBW Training

Training Development

20072007

Oct. 1 Service Change

Pilot test of

training package

OB 8.1 Deploy

New LMS released

OB 8.1 Beta

Who Can Help?Who Can Help?Who Can Help?Who Can Help?

• WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.)WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.)– 405-573-3321 (Linda Curtis)405-573-3321 (Linda Curtis)

• sbwhelp@wdtb.noaa.gov sbwhelp@wdtb.noaa.gov – WDTB help on SBW trainingWDTB help on SBW training

• OCWWS SBW Page OCWWS SBW Page

• wdtb.noaa.govwdtb.noaa.gov

Summary and QuestionsSummary and QuestionsSummary and QuestionsSummary and Questions

• SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance for improvement in warning performance

• But…But…

Success Depends on

All of Us!

Success Depends on

All of Us!