Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Secretariat

Conference Services

Please find attached the presentation by Major General Paul Schafer, United States European

Command, on the U.S. European Command's Strategy for Active Security, delivered to the

565th Meeting of the Forum for Security Co-operation on 26 November 2008.

FSC.DEL/184/08 26 November 2008 ENGLISH only

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The overall classification of this briefing is UNCLASSIFIED

USEUCOM USEUCOM Strategy of Active SecurityStrategy of Active SecurityMaj Gen Paul Schafer, J5/8Maj Gen Paul Schafer, J5/8

26 Nov 200826 Nov 2008

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• Maintaining ready forces for global operations (unilateral or in concert with coalition partners)• Securing strategic access and enabling global freedom of action• Enhancing transatlantic security through support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

(NATO)• Promoting regional stability• Countering terrorism

EUCOM Region and MissionEUCOM Region and Mission

Defend the Homeland Forward and Support U.S. and Partner Strategic Interests by:Defend the Homeland Forward and Support U.S. and Partner Strategic Interests by:

47 Countries +

3 Principalities and the Holy See

47 Countries +

3 Principalities and the Holy See

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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3

EUCOM OrganizationEUCOM Organization

One of Only Two Forward Based Geographic

Combatant Commands

One of Only Two Forward Based Geographic

Combatant Commands

Ramstein, GermanyRamsteinRamstein, , GermanyGermany

USAFEUSAFEUSAFE

Heidelberg, Germany

Heidelberg, Germany

USAREURUSAREURUSAREUR

Stuttgart,GermanyStuttgart,Germany

SOCEURSOCEURSOCEUR

Stuttgart,GermanyStuttgart,Germany

MARFOREURMARFOREURMARFOREUR

Naples,Italy

Naples,Italy

NAVEURNAVEURNAVEUR

Mons, BelgiumMons, Mons,

BelgiumBelgium

SACEUR/CDR EUCOMSACEUR/SACEUR/CDR EUCOMCDR EUCOM

Stuttgart, GermanyStuttgart, Stuttgart, GermanyGermany

DCDR EUCOMDCDR DCDR

EUCOMEUCOM

TOTALMilitary StrengthUSAREUR 45,740USAFE 26,960 NAVEUR 6,580MARFOREUR 140SOCEUR 1,860Reserve/NG (daily avg) 3,800TOTAL 85,080

TOTALTOTALMilitary StrengthMilitary StrengthUSAREURUSAREUR 45,74045,740USAFEUSAFE 26,960 26,960 NAVEURNAVEUR 6,5806,580MARFOREUR MARFOREUR 140140SOCEURSOCEUR 1,8601,860Reserve/NG Reserve/NG (daily (daily avgavg)) 3,8003,800TOTALTOTAL 85,08085,080

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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• Dynamic and diverse region• Wide spectrum of

challenges• Rising Russia• Extremists in Europe

– Sanctuary, battleground, recruitment, logistics base

– Al Qaida (AQ)-inspired terrorist groups plotting operations

• Potential flashpoints in Balkans, Caucasus, Levant, and Turkey’s Eastern border

• Illegal immigration and drug trafficking

• Shifting Demographics

• Dynamic and diverse region• Wide spectrum of

challenges• Rising Russia• Extremists in Europe

– Sanctuary, battleground, recruitment, logistics base

– Al Qaida (AQ)-inspired terrorist groups plotting operations

• Potential flashpoints in Balkans, Caucasus, Levant, and Turkey’s Eastern border

• Illegal immigration and drug trafficking

• Shifting Demographics

Strengthened PartnershipsStrengthened PartnershipsStrengthened Partnerships

Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready Forces

Transformed, Expeditionary, Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready ForcesTrained and Ready Forces

Capable and Expeditionary NATO

Capable and Expeditionary Capable and Expeditionary NATONATO

Russia as Responsible Partner

Russia as Responsible Russia as Responsible PartnerPartner

Strategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of Action

Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests is AssuredProtection of Allies, Partners, Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests is Assuredand U.S. Interests is Assured

Regional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis Precluded

Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and CapacitiesImproved Partner Nation Improved Partner Nation

Capabilities and CapacitiesCapabilities and Capacities

Strategic VisionStrategic VisionTheater Objectives & Security ChallengesTheater Objectives & Security Challenges

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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DISRUPTED PLOTS

EUCOM region continues to be key battleground in the War on TerrorTerrorism

Madrid Bombings

Istanbul Bombings

London Bombings

Köln IED plot

ATTACKS

Nov 03 Istanbul, Turkey Synagogues, UK Banks

and Consulate

Feb 04 Moscow, Russia Subway bombing

Mar 04 Madrid, Spain Commuter train bombings

Nov 04 Amsterdam, NL Theo Van Gogh murder

Jul 05 London, UK Subway/bus bombings

Jul 06 Köln, GE Failed IEDs on trains

Jun 07 London, UK Attempted VBIEDs vs. London theater district, Glasgow airport

Dec 04 Berlin, GE Iraqi PM assassination plot

Jun 06 Timisoara, RO VBIED/mass casualty plot

Aug 06 London, UK Plot vs. US-bound aircraft

Sep 06 Odense, DE Plot vs. various U/I targets

Sep 06 Oslo, Norway Plot vs. US/Israeli interests

Sep 07 Ulm, GE IJU plot vs. US targets

Van Gogh Murder

IJU plot

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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Madrid Bombings, March 2004

Violent Extremist Operations

London Bombings, July 2005

• Europe is key battleground with global terrorist movement sustained by “franchise” operations– Istanbul (2003), Madrid (2004), London (2005)

• Three Germany-based, Pakistan-trained Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) operatives arrested Sep– Planned to use 730kg of H2O2 in Vehicle Born

Improvised Explosive Devices

– Possible targets: Frankfurt airport, Ramstein, discotheque

Foiled Germany IJU Plot, September 2007

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Attacks Killed

20062007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Attacks Arrests

20062007

Europe & Eurasia Islamic Terrorist Attacks & Fatalities

• Significant increase in overall terrorist arrests and attacks in Europe from ‘06 to ’07

– Most separatist related in France and Spain• Increasing violent extremist attacks and related fatalities in

Eurasia– Vast majority in Russia

• Increasing threat level seen from violent extremists in Europe

– In 2007, less than 1% of failed & successful terrorist attacks but almost 20% of arrests

– Increased arrests related to attack planning and recruitment

– Public statements by AQ senior leadership continue to tout Europe as desired attack venue

– Europeans see AQ mergers in Africa as increasing threat to Europe due to increasing external ops focus

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Attack Related Recruitment

20062007

Europe Terrorist Attacks & Arrests

Europe Islamic Extremist Arrests

Sources: NCTC WITS, EUROPOL TESAT 2007, 2008

+17%

+240

%+1

80%

+18%

+75%

+48%

Violent Extremism Increasing in Europe & Eurasia

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO

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• AQ has stated desire to target West’s economy

• Foreign fighters from Iraq have experience in attacking energy sector

• Returning foreign fighters of concern

Energy SecurityUNCLASSIFIED

Al Qaida attack on French oil tanker, Limburg (2002)

Crude oil tanker fire, BosphorusStraits (1994)

UNCLASSIFIED

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European Energy Infrastructure

LNG Terminals

oilgas

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

Nabucco

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

UNCLASSIFIED

• Network has potential vulnerabilities

UNCLASSIFIED

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Cyber Threats

• Cyber attacks against Georgia during Aug 08 conflict

• April 2007 cyber riot in Estonia

• Precipitated by Estonian govt. decision to move WW-II statue

• Hackers conducted denial of service attacks for several days

• Press reports of Chinese hackers trying to access European govt. computers

• Hackers constantly attempt to attack Pentagon computer systems

• Undersea cable cuts off Egyptian coast significantly reduce regional communications

UNCLASSIFIED

Soviet World War II Statue in Estonia

Source: Reuters, AP, BBCUNCLASSIFIED

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• Caucasus is a key transit route for Caspian energy

• BTC oil pipeline

• SCP gas pipeline

• Area plagued by numerous ethnic conflicts

• Russian-Georgia conflict stopped flow for several days

• May increase risk calculation for future pipeline projects

• Re-ignition of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is potential threat to pipelines

Regional InstabilityCaucasus

UNCLASSIFIED

North Ossetia

BTC/SCP Pipelines

Nagorno-Karabakh

South Ossetia

Abkhazia

Ethnic Conflicts

Inguschetia

Chechnya

Dagestan

UNCLASSIFIED

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• Kosovo: Declaration of Independence on 17 Feb 08– Violent protests following declaration; border

posts and U.S. Embassy Belgrade damaged (17 Feb – 31 Mar)

• Bosnia: Real integration of ethnic entities problematic - increase in ethnic rhetoric

• Only one high-level Persons Indicted For War Crimes (PIFWC) still at-large

Regional InstabilityThe Balkans

162 PIFWCs161 In Custody / Dead

1 At Large• RATKO MLADIC: Genocide

(Siege of Sarajevo, Srebrenica)

162 PIFWCs161 In Custody / Dead

1 At Large• RATKO MLADIC: Genocide

(Siege of Sarajevo, Srebrenica)

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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• Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK), a.k.a. KGK

• Armed wing: People’s Defense Forces (HPG)

• Terrorist wing: Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK)

• Estimated 3,000-5,000 PKK combatants in northern Iraq

• Turkish cross-border operations against PKK safe havens

• U.S. supports Turkey in its struggle against terrorism

Regional InstabilityTurkey’s Eastern Border

UNCLASSIFIED

PKK Fighter

Source: BBC, CNNUNCLASSIFIED

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• Syria:– Continues to play de-stabilizing role

in Lebanon

• Palestinian Authority Territory: – Fatah vs. Hamas– IDF vs. Hamas, Fatah

• Lebanon: – LAF vs. Fatah al Islam– Government vs. Hizballah– IDF vs. Hizballah

• 2006 Israel/Hizballah conflict:– Renewed conflict possible– Regional implications

Regional InstabilityThe Levant

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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• Derived from National level guidance

• Supports two over-arching Strategic Objectives:

• Defend the Homeland

• Create and Maintain an Environment that Supports the Strategic Interest of the U.S. and our Allies and Partners

• USEUCOM is uniquely positioned to actively engage our strategic partners in Europe, Eurasia, and the Levant

• Forward presence and strategic location

• New and enduring partnerships allow us to proactively foster opportunities and rapidly respond to challenges

EUCOM Strategy of Active SecurityEUCOM Strategy of Active Security

BUILDING PARTNERSHIP CAPACITYBUILDING PARTNERSHIP CAPACITY

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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• Expresses the Commander’s intent and guidance for the AOR• Provides guidance and a framework for everything we do

• Security Cooperation Activities• Exercises and Training • Contingency Planning and Crisis Response • Resourcing and In-Theater Force Posture and Installations

• Realities of our environment demand a new focus• Security Cooperation, Training and Exercise, and Contingency and

Theater Posture Plans will no longer operate as separate “stovepipes”• Focus is on integrated, proactive efforts in the theater to achieve EUCOM

Objectives• Re-think our processes for long-term security cooperation

• Proper resourcing of Peacetime Engagement versus Contingency Response

• Collaborating with Allies and partners to achieve common goals

A Strategy of Active SecurityA Strategy of Active SecurityUNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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In Execution• Global War on Terror• Combating Weapons of Mass

Destruction• Theater Posture Plan

The Strategy and Theater Campaign PlanThe Strategy and Theater Campaign Plan

Strategy of Active Security

EUCOM Service Component Security Cooperation Plans

FunctionalPlans

ContingencyPlans

8 Theater Objectives

• Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready Forces

• Capable and Expeditionary NATO

• Strengthened Partnerships with Europe

• Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and Capacities

• Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests is Assured

• Strategic Freedom of Action

• Russia as a Responsible Partner

• Regional Crisis Precluded

8 Theater Objectives8 Theater Objectives

•• Transformed, Expeditionary, Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready ForcesTrained and Ready Forces

•• Capable and Expeditionary Capable and Expeditionary NATONATO

•• Strengthened Partnerships Strengthened Partnerships with Europewith Europe

•• Improved Partner Nation Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and CapacitiesCapabilities and Capacities

•• Protection of Allies, Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests Partners, and U.S. Interests is Assuredis Assured

•• Strategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of Action

•• Russia as a Responsible Russia as a Responsible PartnerPartner

•• Regional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis Precluded

Country Level Security

Engagement Plans

Deviations from ourTheater Campaign Plan

• CRISIS RESPONSE

• EMERGENCIES

Enduring Engagement by USAREUR, USAFE, CNE, MARFOREUR, and SOCEUR

Bilateral Engagement by EUCOM through our Offices of Defense Cooperation at the US Embassies and Consulates

Theater Campaign Plan

Europe EurasiaRegional Campaign Plans

NSS, NDS, NMS, UCP, GEF, JSCP

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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Increasing Partner Nation Capacity & CapabilityIncreasing Partner Nation Capacity & Capability(Implementing A Strategy of Active Security)(Implementing A Strategy of Active Security)

• Coalition Support to OIF and OEF• International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF)• Georgia Sustainment, Stability Operations Program

• State Partnership Program (SPP)• Partnership for Peace (PfP)• Membership Action Plans (MAP)• Partner SOF Development• NATO Special Ops Force Coordination Center• Maritime Domain Awareness and Security

• Operation ACTIVE ENDEAVOR• Maritime Cooperation in the Black and Caspian Seas

• Joint Task Force-East• Joint and Combined Exercises• George C. Marshall Center

Potential for near-term increases to support for Georgia and neighboring countries

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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OIF/NTM-I (2/6) OIF/NTM-I AND OEF/ISAF (13/14)

Exporting Security From EuropeExporting Security From EuropeCoalition Partners in OEF/OIFCoalition Partners in OEF/OIF

Iceland(ISL)

OEF/ISAF (21/25)

Belgium(BEL)

Germany(DEU)

Finland(FIN)

France(FRA)

Sweden(SWE)

Great Britain(GBR)

Greece(GRC)

Hungary(HUN)

Japan(JPN)

Jordan(JOR)

Italy(ITA)

Korea, Rep. of(KOR)

Kazakhstan(KAZ)

Latvia(LVA)

Lithuania(LTU)

Mongolia(MNG)

Norway(NOR)

Netherlands(NLD)

New Zealand(NZL)

Poland(POL)

Portugal(PRT)

Macedonia(MKD)

Ukraine(UKR)

Singapore(SGP)

Slovenia(SVN)

Slovak Rep(SVK)

Turkey(TUR)

Romania(ROU)

Australia(AUS)

Azerbaijan(AZE)

Croatia(HRV)

Bulgaria(BGR)

Estonia(EST)

Czech Republic(CZE)

Denmark(DNK)*

Canada(CAN)

El Salvador(SLV)

Armenia(ARM)

Albania(ALB)

Georgia(GEO)

Bosnia and Herzegovina(BIH)

Spain(ESP)

Austria(AUT)

Ireland(IRL)

Luxembourg(LUX)

ISAF/OEFCOALITION PARTNERS

FROM EUCOM AOR:

87%

OIFCOALITION PARTNERS

FROMEUCOM AOR:

75%

Iceland(ISL)

Building Partner Capacity brings Forces to the Fight

75% 87%

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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• EUCOM Basing• Re-positioning Land Forces

• Changing Priorities and Perspectives• Strategy of Active Security vs. War Plans• Fostering Security to less stable regions

• Global Force Posture• Whole of Government and Multinational

Approach

Transforming EUCOMTransforming EUCOMUNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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Cold War EUCOM (1990)Cold War EUCOM (1990)

EUCOM 1990 FootprintPersonnel: 315,000Installations: 1421

• Heavy, massed forces• European Center of Gravity• Robust infrastructure• Extensive family support

structure

EUCOM 1990 FootprintEUCOM 1990 FootprintPersonnel: 315,000Personnel: 315,000Installations: 1421Installations: 1421

•• Heavy, massed forcesHeavy, massed forces•• European Center of GravityEuropean Center of Gravity•• Robust infrastructureRobust infrastructure•• Extensive family support Extensive family support

structurestructure

Major Operating Base (MOB)

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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Main Operating BaseForward Operating SiteCooperative Security Location

Main Operating BaseMain Operating BaseForward Operating SiteForward Operating SiteCooperative Security Cooperative Security LocationLocation

Transformed EUCOM FootprintTransformed EUCOM Footprint

EUCOM 2008 FootprintPersonnel: ~ 86,000

Installations: 438• Expeditionary presence• Agile and sustainable• Enables regional approach• Strategic effects at Strategic

distances

EUCOM 2008 FootprintEUCOM 2008 FootprintPersonnel: ~ 86,000Personnel: ~ 86,000

Installations: 438Installations: 438•• Expeditionary presenceExpeditionary presence•• Agile and sustainableAgile and sustainable•• Enables regional approachEnables regional approach•• Strategic effects at Strategic Strategic effects at Strategic

distancesdistances

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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Requires a Whole of Government andRequires a Whole of Government andMultinational ApproachMultinational Approach

• Integration of EUCOM activities with the rest of USG is a Commander’s priority

• EUCOM shares interests with other agencies:• Partner Engagement objectives are similar throughout USG and

international agencies and departments• EUCOM SAS executed in cooperation with established

organizations such as NATO, OSCE, EU, and others• Continue to improve interagency participation from strategy

development and planning to execution and assessment• Establishment of Commander’s Interagency Engagement Group

(CIEG)• Coordination with Embassy Country Teams• Encourage cross-talk and coordination at conferences and

clearinghouses• Strategy of Active Security Working Group- SASWG

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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Capable and Expeditionary NATO

Capable and Expeditionary Capable and Expeditionary NATONATO

Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests

is Assured

Protection of Allies, Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests Partners, and U.S. Interests

is Assuredis Assured

Europe as a Global PartnerEurope as a Global PartnerEurope as a Global Partner

Strategic VisionStrategic VisionTheater ObjectivesTheater Objectives

Strategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of Action

•• Forward Forward Defense Defense of Homeland of Homeland

•• Protect the Protect the Interests of the Interests of the US, our Allies, US, our Allies, and Partnersand Partners

Transformed, Expeditionary,Transformed, Expeditionary,Trained and Ready ForcesTrained and Ready Forces

Russia as Responsible Partner

Russia as Responsible Russia as Responsible PartnerPartner

Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and CapacitiesImproved Partner Nation Improved Partner Nation

Capabilities and CapacitiesCapabilities and Capacities

Regional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis Precluded

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

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