Oregon State University IPPC Oregon State University IPPC Online Programs: IPM Decision Online Programs: IPM Decision

Support ToolsSupport Tools

Paul Jepson & Leonard CoopPaul Jepson & Leonard Coop

Integrated Plant Protection CenterIntegrated Plant Protection Center

Oregon State UniversityOregon State University

Specific DSS Products

• ** Weather-driven pest models

– Phenology (degree-day) models

– Disease risk models

• ** PNW Pest Control Handbooks

• Caneberry IPM Phenology: Conservation BioControl – 2007

• Pest Alert Systems, IPM Portal, Peppermint DSS (all highlighted around 2003)

PNW Online Pest Management Handbooks

• Evolved from print-only handbooks (pub. since 1970s)• Online Plant Disease Guide developed and

maintained by Jay Pscheidt & Cindy Ocamb (OSU) – in a SQL database, delivered via Coldfusion since ca. 1996

• Online Weed and Insect Books – conversion and online publishing by IPPC, evolving features, very little outside support (ca. 20K 2001-2003)

Online access – 10x growth in 2 years

– Handbook: 1st online 2003 2004 2005– -----------------------------------------------------------------------------– Insects 2003 13,999 41,553 80,011– Weeds 2002 20,280 42,922 299,618

– Plant Diseases 1996 35,977 39,894 308,656– Total -- 70,356 124,369 688,286

Original vision/prototype: 1998

2005: MSDS links

Insects: Ken Gray Photo Collection

Search engines: highlight matches

Online Weed handbook: new Weed ID Collection, several extra chapters

PNW Online Pest Management Handbooks

• Vision developed in 1998: we are very close today• Automated publishing process (RTFtoHTML,

custom Perl scripts)• Four-way navigation: TOC, search, pulldown

menus, previous/next page• ID photos: now all 3 handbooks WEEDS: 718 links

to 527 photos; INSECTS: 3,542 links to photos• New 2005: links from pesticides to MSDS

pages/pesticide labels: e.g. INSECTS: 2154 links• INSECTS: 1,000+ in context links to related web

sites (checked and updated yearly)• Usage: 10-fold increases 2003-2005• Print version publication continues: ca. 1,800 pages

total

Online IPM Handbook Issues

• Weed, insect, disease pests not yet truly integrated in print or online (could integrate via a search engine – not yet implemented)

• Scrolling gets tedious• Size of print edition limits adding more IPM info• Ken Gray insect slide collection needs updating• Late release of online Weed and Insect versions

(June – August). My goal: May 1st• Weed Handbook - related websites not yet

incorporated• Weed Handbook – herbicide selection expert

system in development

Degree-day calculator and models integrated with 6,300+ Degree-day calculator and models integrated with 6,300+ weather stationsweather stations

Online Weather Data from IPPC - history

• Today (April 5th, 2006) is the 10th anniversary of the website

• 1995-6 “bootstrap” era – initial products for Oregon converted from Pascal DOS programs into AWK

• 1996-1999 PNW 3-state era, some Areawide Codling Moth funding, initial WR IPM funding

• 1999-2004 WR IPM grants, support OR grower networks and disease models, 5 state NW region (900+ weather stations, 45 pest models)

• 2004-present Focus on plant disease models, expand to national status (2006: 6300+ stations, 49 pest models), NPDN funding

• 2006-2009 Focus on forecasting for disease models, NRI Plant Biosecuity funding

Len CoopLen Coop - IPPC, Oregon State University - IPPC, Oregon State University Christopher DalyChristopher Daly, Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State , Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State UniversityUniversityAlan FoxAlan Fox – Foxweather, LCC – Foxweather, LCC Gary Grove - Gary Grove - Washington State University Washington State University Doug GublerDoug Gubler – University California – University California Paul Jepson – Paul Jepson – Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Ken JohnsonKen Johnson – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University Walter MahaffeeWalter Mahaffee – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS William PfenderWilliam Pfender – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS Fran PierceFran Pierce - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington State UniversityState UniversityJoyce StrandJoyce Strand - University of California - Information Systems Manager and - University of California - Information Systems Manager and MeteorologistMeteorologistCarla S. Thomas -Carla S. Thomas -National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California

W IPMC Weather WorkgroupW IPMC Weather Workgroup

PRISM International Climate MappingPRISM International Climate Mapping

Western Canada

Pacific BasinChina

Taiwan

MongoliaEuropean Alps

Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity Maps: all maps are state-of-Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity Maps: all maps are state-of-the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other

methodsmethods

PRISM Knowledge PRISM Knowledge BaseBase

• Elevation influence on climate

• Terrain-induced climate transitions (topographic facets, moisture index)

• Coastal effects

• Two-layer atmosphere and topographic index

• Orographic effectiveness of terrain

• Persistence of climatic patterns (climatically-aided interpolation)

Oregon Annual Precipitation

Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961-90

Full PRISM ModelMax ~ 3300 mm

Simple distance interpolation

Max ~ 7900 mm

Daily Online Degree-Day Maps: 48 contiguous statesDaily Online Degree-Day Maps: 48 contiguous states

At a glance: At a glance: current, normal, deviations Jan 1 to date current, normal, deviations Jan 1 to date

Now available nation-wideNow available nation-wide e.g. 50 Degree threshold – Pennsylvania Jan. 1 – June 13, 2005e.g. 50 Degree threshold – Pennsylvania Jan. 1 – June 13, 2005

Model Runs0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Calculator/model usage per year

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005 (est)

•Degree-day/Phenology Calc./Model Usage – PNWPEST.ORG •Example 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005-Oct24•================================================================================•Degree-Day Calculator generic 454 3219 6048 5162 7761 7599•codling moth [apple & pear] 83 1123 2019 2053 2428 1827•fire blight [apple & pear] 17 300 699 1115 778 560•

Hood River, OR – tree fruitHood River, OR – tree fruit1. 2 km resolution2. 100 m resolution3. 30 m res. - online DD mapping tool

Prototype Products in Development 1. DPEP (Date of Phenological Event Prediction) maps

Prototype Products in Development 2. Generic disease risk models – initially for NPDN epidemiologists

Prototype Products in Development 2. Generic disease risk models – initially for NPDN epidemiologists

Products in Development 3. Site specific forecast models

GFS forecast model (up to 10 days) -> CALMET + MtnRTemps -> FL Leaf Wetness (orig. Kim et al. - Iowa

State) -> numerous plant disease risk models at ca 2 KM resolution

ConclusionsConclusions

• IPM decision making resides with the grower: decision aids need to be resolved to the field/farm scale

• Advanced climate analysis is an effective starting point for development of tools and services

• Development model in OR, PNW, West, has recruited large numbers of growers, and is evolving

• Plant disease models, supported by improved forecasting, are in development; some released

• W IPM C Weather Workgroup is focusing on standards, quality control, and delivery of comprehensive regional and national services

• GIS-based tools offer scope for integration of other IPM decision tools relating to diagnostics, IPM options, and spatially resolved risk and risk mitigation factors