orange county business council unemployment rate comparisons source: california edd orange...

Orange CountyEconomic Overview

January 2014

ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL

Unemployment Rate Comparisons

Source: California EDD

• Orange County’s unemployment has

been under 7 percent since February 2013.

• Unemployment at the county, state, and

national levels has fallen across the board for 2013.

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

30.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

December 2013 Results

Orange County (5.2%) California (7.9%) United States (6.5%)


Cal State University Fullerton:Business Expectations Index

Source: Cal State University Fullerton

• An index rating over 50 indicates higher

confidence in the OC economy from

executives.

• The Q3 2013 score of 93.9 is the highest rating achieved since

July 2004.

Q1

20

08

Q2

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q2

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q4

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

29.1

37.3

18.1

17.8

15.2

22.7

30.8

48.8 53

.3

65.2

60.6

60

71.4

80.9

70

46.3

77.9

90.7

72.8

70.5 75

91.6 93

.9

85.2 88

.8


Chapman University: Orange County Manufacturing Composite Employment Index

Source: Chapman University

• An index rating above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing

industry in Orange County.

• Orange County has maintained a

manufacturing index of above 50 for the

past four years.

3rd

20

07

4th

20

07

1st

20

08

2n

d 2

00

83

rd 2

00

84

th 2

00

81

st 2

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92

nd

20

09

3rd

20

09

4th

20

09

1st

20

10

2n

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01

03

rd 2

01

04

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01

12

nd

20

11

3rd

20

11

4th

20

11

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20

12

2n

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01

23

rd 2

01

24

th 2

01

21

st 2

01

32

nd

20

13

3rd

20

13

4th

20

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.8

52.2

47.0

48.9

45.1

40.6

33.9 40

.3

50.2

50.0

58.9 62

.2

61.7

61.9

60.9 65

.0

59.3

60.9

60.2 65

.9

53.1

54.6

50.0

59.7

61.8

59.1


Chapman University: California Consumer Sentiment Index


• An index rating above 100 indicates a

positive consumer outlook.

• Consumer sentiment has been above 90 since Q3 2012, but has not surpassed 100 in 2013 for the

state.

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20

40

60

80

100

120

66.3

57.6

65.1

66.0

58.2

70.7

69.2

76.3 81

.1

82.7

84.2 90

.5

88.7

89.7

88.2

80.6

89.8

89.0 93

.4

94.9 99

.7

93.9 98

.9

97.5


Chapman University: Current and Future Consumer Sentiment

Index


• An index above 100 indicates a positive

outlook for current or future conditions in

Orange County.

• Though the future conditions index fell

below 100 in Q3 2013, the current

conditions index has been trending upward

since its last significant low in Q4

2011.

1st

20

08

2n

d 2

00

8

3rd

20

08

4th

20

08

1st

20

09

2n

d 2

00

9

3rd

20

09

4th

20

09

1st

20

10

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d 2

01

0

3rd

20

10

4th

20

10

1st

20

11

2n

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01

1

3rd

20

11

4th

20

11

1st

20

12

2n

d 2

01

2

3rd

20

12

4th

20

12

1st

20

13

2n

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01

3

3rd

20

13

4th

20

13

20

40

60

80

100

120

46.4

42.1

40.0

34.7

33.8

40.7

39.6

53.8 60

.3 66.0 71

.9 76.9 80

.1

77.7

67.1

62.6

81.3

80.9 84

.2

83.7

92.3

91.0

100.

4

96.0

80.8

76.3

94.4

91.6

80.1

99.5

97.7

99.7

97.7

105.

1

100.

1 109.

1

100.

1

104.

7

106.

8

97.6

106.

9

93.6

105.

0

100.

9 108.

1

101.

4

99.8

98.5

Current Conditions Future Conditions


Chapman University: California Employment Indicator Index


• Variable used in this index include lagged real GDP, exports,

construction spending, and the

S&P 500.

• State employment is relatively improving

for Q4 2013.


Chapman University: Employment Indicator Index & Payroll

Employment


• This index demonstrates the

Employment Index’s correlation with

payroll employment for the state.

• Currently, payroll employment is

appreciating in-line and slightly ahead of

the Employment Index.

Industry and Occupation Trends


Orange County Monthly Industry Trends, 2007-2013


Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13

Mining and Logging 400 500 500 500 500 500 400

Construction 76,000 77,700 80,400 82,600 83,300 82,700 84,700

Durable Goods 117,400 117,200 117,500 117,300 118,400 119,000 119,300

Nondurable Goods 43,000 44,000 43,800 43,500 42,900 43,600 43,000

Wholesale Trade 78,900 79,300 79,900 79,100 80,000 80,400 80,900

Retail Trade 139,400 140,400 140,200 139,900 141,800 148,800 149,900

Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 27,600 27,500 27,700 27,700 27,600 27,800 28,300

Information 24,400 24,400 24,400 24,400 24,400 24,600 24,700

Financial Activities 113,800 114,500 115,100 114,500 114,400 113,100 113,600

Professional & Business Services 257,200 257,700 262,200 262,000 266,600 266,800 267,900

Educational & Health Services 168,700 164,900 164,700 168,300 169,300 170,500 170,000

Leisure & Hospitality 189,700 190,900 192,100 190,500 189,300 187,900 187,600

Other Services 45,300 45,800 45,000 44,400 45,000 44,900 44,800

Government 152,100 139,600 134,300 138,700 144,500 146,900 146,000


Average Salaries of Fastest Growing Occupations

By Absolute Job Growth


• Registered Nurses lead in salaries by a

wide margin, with Office Clerks a distant

second place.

Retail Salespersons

Waiters and Waitresses

Personal Care Aides

Food Preparation and Serving WorkersCashiers

Landscaping / Groundskeeping

Office Clerks, G

eneral

Cooks, Restaurant

Registered Nurses

Janitors and Cleaners

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

Projected Growth (2010-2020) Median Annual Salary, 2013


Average Salaries of Fastest Growing Occupations

By Percent Job Growth


• Biomedical Engineers lead both

in terms of employment growth

and earning potential.

• Other technical professions projected

to grow include Logisticians and

Audiologists.

Biomedical Engineers

Home Health Aides

Personal Care Aides

Logisticians

Health Educators

Physical Therapist Assistants

Audiologists

Physical Therapist Aides

Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners

Conservation Scientists

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Projected Growth (2010-2020) Median Annual Salary, 2013


Industry Cluster Drivers Fast Facts

• Orange County’s Cross-Cutting Clusters: • International Trade• Creativity• Information Technology• Green Technology

• Three Largest Clusters by Employment (2012): • Tourism • Manufacturing• Hotels and Restaurants

• Two Greatest Exports by Industry Sector (2011): • Computer & Electronic Products• Transportation Equipment


Orange County Cluster Employment, 2008-2012

Source: OCBC analysis of California Employment Development Department QCEW dataset

• Tourism, Manufacturing, Hospitality, and

Healthcare have all seen significant

recovery since the recession.


Orange County Cross-Cutting Cluster Employment, 2012

Sources: OCBC Analysis of California EDD Data, OTIS Report, Next10, Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation

• The four cross-cutting clusters are

key economic drivers for Orange County.

• Though the vast majority of industries have an International

Trade component, Creativity and

Information Technology have their

greatest impact on Business Services,

one of Orange County’s most

important clusters for innovation.


Average Salaries Within Orange County’s Selected Industry Drivers, 2012

Source: OCBC analysis of California Employment Development Department data, Otis Report, Next10, and

Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation

• Information Technology salaries

fell from 2011 to 2012, but are still the

highest overall among compared

clusters.

• Creativity experienced the

largest year-over-year increase in annual average

salaries.


Orange County Median Home Prices 2003-2013

Source: DataQuick News

• December 2013 - $570,000

• The median home price hit its five-year high in December

2013, after a year of near-constant appreciation.

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000


Orange County Total Housing Permits Per Month

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CenStats

• November 2013 – 542

• Building activity has picked up

considerable steam through 2013, with

July 2013 marking a five-year high for building permits.

Jan

-08

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Jul-

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Oct

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Jan

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Jul-

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Oct

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Jan

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13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000


Orange County New Car and Light Truck Registrations

Source: Orange County Auto Dealers Association

• Registrations have been on the rise since

January 2012, and have maintained relatively steady

increases through 2013.

Jan

-08

Ap

r-0

8Ju

l-0

8O

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Jul-

09

Oct

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Jan

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Jul-

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Oct

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Jan

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13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Cars Light Trucks

Orange County Industry Cluster

Detailed Employment Summaries


Overview

• Employment Clusters Reviewed:• Business & Professional Services• Energy & Environmental• FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate)• Construction• Healthcare• Information Technology• Transportation & Logistics• Manufacturing• Biotechnology• Hospitality

• Data Source: Econovue, 2013


Business & Professional Services

CitiesTotal Employment

Irvine 54,630

Santa Ana 37,642

Costa Mesa 31,483

Anaheim 29,924

Newport Beach 22,323

Orange 22,149

Huntington Beach 18,132

Garden Grove 11,311

Tustin 11,200

Fullerton 10,273

CitiesEmployment Concentration

Villa Park 42.6%

Costa Mesa 42.3%

Aliso Viejo 38.7%

Tustin 35.5%

Laguna Hills 35.0%

Mission Viejo 34.4%

Laguna Beach 34.1%

Santa Ana 33.9%

Yorba Linda 33.8%

La Habra 32.4%


Finance, Insurance & Real Estate


Irvine 27,136


Santa Ana 12,958

Anaheim 9,456

Orange 7,695

Costa Mesa 6,967


Brea 4,911

Fullerton 3,636

Tustin 3,613


Laguna Woods 48.2%

Newport Beach 21.9%

Cypress 20.4%

Villa Park 16.2%

Laguna Beach 15.6%

Aliso Viejo 14.6%

Brea 14.5%

Mission Viejo 13.7%

Irvine 13.7%

La Palma 13.3%


Manufacturing


Irvine 48,456

Anaheim 29,032

Santa Ana 23,599


Orange 9,324

Garden Grove 9,234

Lake Forest 9,103

Buena Park 8,249

Fullerton 7,852

Costa Mesa 7,457


Buena Park 33.2%

Seal Beach 30.2%

Lake Forest 27.3%

Huntington Beach 26.6%

Irvine 24.5%

Anaheim 23.2%

Los Alamitos 23.2%

Garden Grove 22.3%

Santa Ana 21.2%

Brea 21.0%


Healthcare


Orange 21,905


Santa Ana 13,065

Irvine 11,473

Anaheim 11,075

Fullerton 9,435

Costa Mesa 8,068


Mission Viejo 6,209

Fountain Valley 5,999


Fountain Valley 29.3%

Orange 25.6%

Mission Viejo 23.7%

Laguna Woods 23.0%

Fullerton 22.9%

Laguna Hills 21.6%

La Palma 19.4%

Newport Beach 18.1%

Villa Park 17.5%

Los Alamitos 16.5%


Hospitality


Anaheim 18,064

Irvine 12,846

Newport Beach 9,695

Santa Ana 7,563

Costa Mesa 7,412


Orange 6,211

Buena Park 4,497

Fullerton 4,143

Garden Grove 3,950


Laguna Beach 23.0%

Buena Park 18.1%

La Habra 14.6%

Anaheim 14.5%

Newport Beach 12.8%

Seal Beach 11.9%

Stanton 11.8%

Mission Viejo 11.7%

La Palma 11.7%

Cypress 11.7%


Construction


Anaheim 16,176

Orange 10,832

Irvine 10,091

Costa Mesa 6,959

Santa Ana 6,548


Brea 3,769

Newport Beach 3,722

Garden Grove 3,141

Fullerton 2,696


Placentia 17.6%

Stanton 15.1%

Anaheim 13.0%

Orange 12.6%

Los Alamitos 12.6%

Yorba Linda 11.3%

Brea 11.1%

La Habra 10.1%

Costa Mesa 9.4%

Villa Park 8.9%


Information Technology


Irvine 8,363

Santa Ana 4,493

Anaheim 3,308

Newport Beach 1,903

Tustin 1,734

Orange 1,605

Costa Mesa 1,601

Brea 1,450


Garden Grove 999


La Palma 8.5%

Tustin 5.5%

Los Alamitos 5.4%

Brea 4.3%

Cypress 4.2%

Irvine 4.2%

Santa Ana 4.0%

Aliso Viejo 3.5%

Westminster 3.4%

Buena Park 3.0%

orange county business council unemployment rate comparisons source: california edd orange...

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manufacturing index

state employment

current conditions index

future conditions index

chapman university variable

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