optimistic but cautious central europe cfo survey …others. the cfo survey discloses the...

Optimistic but cautiousCentral Europe CFO Survey 2015

2015 results | 6th editionSlovenia

© 2015 Deloitte Central Europe2

The Slovenian government still needs to think more about implementing measures to help the Slovenian economy to recover from the crisis. Such measures should focus first on establishing a more optimistic, supportive and dependable environment, which will lead to the development of our economy.


It has taken three years for Slovenian CFOs to finally show some optimism about the future of the Slovenian economy. If the results of all three previous editions of the survey in Slovenia were worryingly pessimistic, it appears this year that our country has finally overcome the recession of recent years. Some of the key perceptions of CFOs in the fourth edition of the Deloitte CFO Survey in Slovenia (the sixth to cover Central Europe) include:

• a focusonrevenuegrowthinsteadonimprovingliquidity;

• muchmoreoptimismaboutthe financialfutureoftheircompaniescomparedwithpreviousyears;

• moreoptimismregardingtheircompanies’abilitytoservicedebtinthe nextthreeyears;

• a readinesstotakemoreriskontotheircompanies’balancesheets;

• moreoptimisticpredictionsaboutthe levelofemploymentinthe country;

• positiveexpectationsforthe growthofSlovenianGDP.

However,thisoptimismisstillaccompaniedwithsomecaution;itneedstobestressedthat the recovery of 2014 might be somewhat fragile as future development is still heavily dependentonthe performanceofSlovenia’smaintradingpartners.Furthermore,overtwo thirds of respondents (77%) still think that the general level of external financial and economic uncertainty in Slovenia is above normal, high or very high. For a second year, Slovenia is still the CE country where it is deemed most difficult to obtain bank loans. Most important of all, according to the participating CFOs, the main obstacle to Slovenian economic development is still the excessive involvement of the government in the economy, followed by unfavourable tax legislation.

These findings are challenging for the Slovenian government, which needs to think yet more about implementing measures to help the Slovenian economy to recover from the crisis. Such measures should focus first on establishing a more optimistic, supportive and dependable environment, which will lead to the development of our economy.

Slovenia in 2015: Finally some signs of optimism

Introduction

1 Insight into regional competitiveness

2 About the sixth Deloitte CE CFO Survey

3 Key Findings and Economic Trends

4 Growth

5 Risk

7 Financing

6 Debt

8 Talent

9 DGC CFO Survey

Contents

Yuri SidorovichManagingPartnerDeloitte Slovenia

Insight into regional competitiveness


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Insight into regional competitiveness by Erzsébet Czakó, ProfessorandCo-director,CompetitivenessResearchCentre, Corvinus University of Budapest

The sixth Deloitte CE CFO survey offers us an opportunity to interpret its results in a broad context, that of competitiveness. There is no single definition for competitiveness. However there is a shared understanding that its aim istoimprovelivingstandardsandqualityoflife for people. This introduction probes how the Deloitte CE CFO and similar surveys can contribute to achieving this benefit.

What is competitiveness? Competitiveness is an appealing but vague concept, particularly from a national perspective. It is a panacea which policy makers and politicians emphasise instead of coherent andeffectivelong-termmeasures.Itisa niceconcept to include in policy and academic papers,butitishardtoseeinGDPandothermacro-economicfigures.Thatisa commonview among sceptics of competitiveness.Its advocates, meanwhile, say that competitiveness rankings can provide insights into the comparative social and economic capacities and achievements of countries, inmoredetailthanGDPandothermacro-economic figures can reveal. They posit that profitable companies are the key agents of macro-economicachievement.Theirkey

proposition is that what is good for companies willalsobegoodformacro-economicsuccess– a relationship that can be justified by international statistics.

It therefore follows that special attention should be given to how the performance of a country’scompaniescanbeenhancedbymorethantraditionalmacro-economicpolicymeasures alone. Surveys and their results, just like this CE CFO Survey series, may give us another piece of the jigsaw puzzle leading to a better understanding of what can also be done to improve national competitiveness.

Insights from over 550 CFOsCFOs are responsible for the funding, financing andliquidity-managementoftheircompanies,


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givingthemfirst-handperceptionsoftheirfinancial markets and the financial challenges and needs of their companies. The period covered by this survey was that in which companies carry out their business and strategic planning. The insights of the CFOs in it may therefore also reflect the planning landscape across CE for the whole of 2015.

The Central European regionGlobalisationandthe integrationofcountriesand markets are refocusing the role of regions in shaping the prosperity of their countries. Often the proximity of countries defines a region. The surveyed 14 countries in Central Europe are diverse in character for those

who live and work in this region. They have similarities for those who live and work, for example, in a Western European country. ButtopeopleinAsianorLatin-Americancountries they appear identical, as they do to institutions and businesses with global coverage.

When one takes a look at the global competitiveness rankings, one can see that the CE countries were close to one another in the 2008 crises, since when they have diverged. Some have improved more than others. The CFO survey discloses the similarities and differences between CE countries. The well documented North / South divide

betweenthe region’scountriesisa meaningfulconcept for professionals and academics, in whichthe V4countries(the CzechRepublic,Hungary,PolandandSlovakia)andthe Balticstates (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) belong to the North, while Albania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania,Slovenia,SerbiaandKosovoarein the Southern zone. This divide is nothing new, and has inspired a number of other comparative surveys and analyses at both a macro-economicandata businesslevel.

The overall pictureThe opinion of one CFO is a single voice. The opinions of over 550 from 14 different countries can delineate the big picture across


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a region. The key conclusions of the survey suggest that the CE region has been continuing to recover from the 2008 crises over the last year. Although the respondents perceive that their external environment is and will remain volatile and risky, they are much more optimisticfortheirowncompanies’prospectsthanforthe GDPfiguresoftheircountries.

The region’sCFOsaremoderatelyoptimisticand cautious about their own growth prospects. With a few exceptions, they see either their current markets or falling costs as a basis for optimism. They intend to rely more on their own internal financial resources than external ones to finance their operations.

By putting these simplified statements together, it may be posited that participating CFOs and their companies are following the logic of business and management textbooks in market economies in looking sceptically at theirmacro-economicenvironments.Ina riskyenvironment, which is considered operationally normal by the survey participants, this is a rewarding option.

Messages from the CFO surveys on competitivenessCompanies and their managers do what is calculably rewarding for them. They adapt to their environment, both what it actually is and how their managers perceive it to be.

Respondentsareoptimisticabouttheirlong-term expectations, which may come from their trust in their own learning and ability to adapt. It also may reflect a hope that their risky environment will become more forecastable and calculable over the long term. This is a hope that has been persistently shared in the CE region ever since it entered the market system. A forecastable and calculable environment is not a miracle. It can be created, managed and maintained. But not only by companies and their managers.

A competitive market system is a broad game, especially in this era of global value chains. It is a board game where agreed and


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observedrulesareessential.The co-operation,contributions and professionalism of the players are also needed, not just on a national but also ona regionalbasis.Thisisa time-consumingand not necessarily rewarding process, but it is probably the only effective way in the 21st century. That is where and how this CE CFO Survey and similar exercises can participate in enhancing regional competitiveness. They can give us a basis for understanding what is going on and provide the impetus for delineating where and how to move on.

As a professor, I like and use reports on international surveys, just like this one. I also rely on them in my guise as a researcher on

the competitiveness of Hungarian businesses. It may not be an idle fantasy that sooner or later they will find a broader readership than their current core target audience. This would be a small but significant step towards achieving a more competitive CE region.

Erzsébet CzakóProfessorandco-directorofthe CompetitivenessResearchCentreatCorvinusUniversityofBudapest

About the sixth Deloitte CE CFO Survey


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This report compares the expectations of CFOs from 14 Central European economies (Albania AL, Bulgaria BG, Croatia HR,the CzechRepublicCZ, Estonia EE, Hungary HU, KosovoRKS, Latvia LV, Lithuania LT,PolandPL,RomaniaRO, Serbia RS, Slovakia SK and Slovenia SI). It is based on the answers of 560 CFOs from a broad range of industries who responded to our survey inOctoberandNovember2014.The surveycapturesshiftsinCFOs’opinionsonfactorsincludingrisk,GDPgrowthandfinancingpriorities. Ithasbecomea benchmarkforagiledecision-makingthattakes into account the financial attitudes of major corporations across Central Europe.


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KeyFindingsand Economic Trends


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Optimism returns among CFOs, although caution remains.

The focus will be on revenue growth in 2015.

CFOs continue to rely on their traditional foreign trade partners.

There has been a gradual improvement in the availability of bank loans.

Excessive government involvement is still seen as an obstacle to growth.

Keyfindings-Slovenia


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Thisyear’sCECFOConfidence Index isatthe second-highest level recorded in all six editions of the Deloitte CE CFO Survey.

Although the CE CFO Confidence Index has shown a moderate decline from last year, we interpret its high level to be a sign of the continuing cautious optimism shared by over 550 CFOs from companies across 14 countries.

The majority of CFOs in Central Europe are experiencing an above normal, high or very high level of external risk.

Driven by this high external risk, the top priority for next year, shared by CFOs across all CE countries, is simply to grow revenues from their current markets.

Keyfindings-CentralEurope


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CFOs in CE hold divergent views on other priorities for the next 12 months. While those in one major block of countries support revenue-seekingstrategies,those in a second block are planning to establish a cost advantage.

The clear majority of CFOs in Central Europe believe that the time has not yet come to take more risk on to their company balance sheets. The appetite for risk is notably higher among CFOs in Lithuania and Poland.

CFOs expect a wave of M&A activity and restructuringinthe questfor new levels of revenue and efficiency.

While talent shortages are not a concern for most participating CFOs, there are opportunities across the region for experienced financial professionals.


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Contrasting expectations forGDPgrowthsignalthatthe two main regions of Central Europe will grow at different speeds – there is a clear north/south Divide in Central Europe.

Participants’three-yearperspectives on their companies’abilitytoservicetheir debt suggests that

Central Europe businesses will improve over the long term.


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While it appears that Slovenia has finally overcome the recession of recent years, it needs to be stressed that the recovery of 2014 might be somewhat fragile as future development is still heavily dependent on the performanceofSlovenia’smaintradingpartners.

Foreign demand was the main driver of growth in 2014, resulting in a 6.8% increase inexportsduringthe year’sfirstthreequarterscomparingtothe sameperiodin2013. Even though the economic recovery ofSlovenia’smaintradingpartnerswasweak, export growth was due to improved Slovenian competitiveness and an increase in export by road.

Slovenia-economictrendsin2014andforecastsfor2015

In 2014, Slovenia saw a return to the route towards economic recovery, exceeding earlierGDPgrowthexpectationswithan increase of 3.2% in the first three quartersof2014comparedtothe previousyear. This is a positive development after twoconsecutiveyearsofcontractingGDP,by-2.6%(2012)and-1.0%(2013).SlovenianInstitute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) data from December 2014 predicts a 2.5% growth in 2014 and furthersolidGDPgrowthof2.0%in2015.

GrowthinSloveniasignificantlyoutpacedthe eurozone average in 2014. In November, the OECD, like other international organisations, cut its forecasts for eurozone GDPgrowthto0.8%in2014and1.1%in2015 (about 0.4 percentage points less than was expected in the spring of 2014). As noted by IMAD, weaker external demand was caused by geopolitical risk and less favourable global economic prospects. IMAD further added that the downside risk to the recovery of eurozone growth in 2015 springs from geopolitical tensions, unstable financial markets and the slower implementation of structural reforms in EU member states.


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A more favourable trend emerged, demonstrated by increased hiring levels, after an initial increase in registered unemployment at the beginning of 2014. IMAD’sSlovenianeconomicmirrorforNovember 2014 reported that 115,411 persons were registered as unemployed at the end of November 2014, a 3.3% decrease from November 2013. According to SIMAD, this trend is expected to continue in 2015 and 2016. In addition to falling unemployment, average gross earnings per employee have been rising slightly since mid-2013.Inadditiontorisingaveragegross earnings in the private sector in 2014, there was also an increase in public sector earnings.

In addition to this increase in exports, domestic consumption and the labour market also had a positive impact on SlovenianGDP.Householdconsumptionwentupyear-on-yearby0.8%inthe firstthreequartersof2014,reflectinggreaterconfidence among Slovenian consumers. Forecasts were somewhat negative in 2013, when it was expected that unemployment would further increase for the next two years. Based on the most recent data from SIMAD, this trend turned around in conjunction with more favourable economic growth forecasts, and the labour market gradually improved in 2014.

According to forecasts, gross wages, both in nominal and real terms, are expected to stay on the growth path in 2015 and 2016.

In November 2014, Slovenia recorded an annualdeflationrateof-0.2%.Inadditionto a decline in consumer prices, the main driver was the huge decrease in the global oilpricewhichreacheda four-yearlowinthe fourthquarter.Duetothe depreciationof the euro against the US dollar, prices also fell significantly in euro terms. Similar factors impacted the eurozone, which in November 2014 recorded 0.3% inflation year on year.


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The levelofSlovenia’sgeneralgovernmentdeficit also showed positive movement in2014,decliningbyEUR0.31bnfromthe sameperiodin2013tototalEUR1.032bn. This fall was due to a 5% growth in general government revenue, which exceeded the 2.2% growth in general government spending. The revenue growth was mainly due to public finance measures and stronger economic activity, while expenditure was driven by investment and rising interest payments. Based on information available for September 2014, Slovenia’sgrossexternaldebtamountedtoEUR44.0bn(119.1%ofGDP).

The banking sector in Slovenia continued to improve in 2014. At the same time, the volume of loans continued to decline, fallingbyEUR2.3bnbyOctober2014.Household and government deposits grew in 2014, a trend that came to a halt atthe endofthe thirdquarter.Furthertransfers of doubtful receivables also contributedtothe improvementofbanks’balancesheets,asan additionalEUR1.1bn were transferred to the Bank Assets Management Company (BAMC) in October 2014.On the other hand, the share of receivablesmorethan90daysinarrears(EUR6.2bn)remainsrelativelyhigh,at15.7% of the total at the end of September 2014.

IMADnotedthatthe EUR4.1bnincreaseoverDecember 2013 was mainly due to general government borrowing through the sale of long-termbonds.

In terms of CFO expectations for Slovenian GDPgrowthin2015,a majorityofSlovenianCFOs(61%)agreewithIMADthatSlovenia’sGDPwillgrowbyupto1.5%,while34%aremore optimistic and believe that the Slovenian economy will generate moderate growth of between 1.5% and 3.0% in 2015. This is a significantimprovementoverlastyear’ssurvey, when 62% of CFOs expected recession to continue in 2014.


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Opinions relating to expected levels of unemployment also improved significantly in late 2014, with 44% of CFOs expecting the level of unemployment to remain unchanged and 35% anticipating a slight decrease during the next 12 months. On the other hand, 21% still expect unemployment to increase somewhat, significantly down from 65% in late 2013.

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CFOs’ expectations for Slovenian GDP growth in 2015

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Expected change in Slovenian unemployment levels over the next 12 months

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The CE CFO Confidence Index1 tracks the evolution of CFO sentiments regarding theircompanies’financialprospectsacrossmany sectors and geographies. We have taken into account the accumulated opinions of CFOs from five major economies in the region: Poland,the CzechRepublic,Romania,Hungaryand Slovakia. Jointly, these represent close to80%ofCE’saggregatedGDP.Wehaveweightedthe influenceofCFOs’sentimentsfrom different countries by the relative size of their economies, to best represent the overall expectations for changing regional dynamics.

1 The CE CFO Confidence Index is calculated based on net optimism – the difference between the percentage of CFOs who are optimistic about the financial prospects for their company compared with six months ago and those who are pessimistic, weighted by the proportion that believes conditions remain unchanged. We calculate the index based on results from five major economies of the Central European region, which between them have a 78% share of the total GDPofallanalysedcountries.Netoptimismisthenweightedbythe GDPofindividual countries to produce the index for the region as a whole.

Graph 3

CE CFO Confidence IndexThe index is at its second highest level since we started to measure CFO confidence across CE in June 2011. The index is four points lower than in the last edition of the survey in December 2013. This movement appears mainly to be driven by perceptions of increased external risks – unsurprising given developments in the political and economic crisis taking place in the important neighboring countriesofUkraineandRussia.Despitethisserious risk factor, CFO confidence is 18 points above its historical low point. We interpret this as a clear sign of cautious optimism.

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Two-speedgrowthinCentralEurope

The distributionofexpectationsforGDPgrowth in 2015 suggests that economies in Central Europe will divide into two groups, each on a different development dynamic. The first group consists of the Visegrad (Poland,Slovakia,Hungaryandthe CzechRepublic)andBalticcountries.The clearmajority of CFOs from the Visegrad countries expectmoderateGDPgrowth,rangingbetween 1.5% and 3%. In the Baltic countries (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) moderate growth is also expected by a relatively high proportion of CFOs (61%, 48% and 48% respectively). These seven countries, located

Graph 4

CFOs’ expectations for their countries’ GDP growth in 2015

in the north or the centre of Eastern Europe, are clearly expected to grow much faster than the other group.

Countries in the second group are all located to the south of the region or in the Balkans. The dominant expectation in this group of countries,whichincludesAlbania,Romania,Bulgaria,Slovenia,Kosovo,SerbiaandCroatia,isforstagnation.CFOsexpectGDPgrowthranging from 0.5 to 1.5%. Uncertainties surrounding future growth are much higher in this region. For example, over 35% of CFOs inCroatiaexpectrecessionandfallingGDP.The north/south divide of economic dynamics inEasternEuropelooksrelativelyclear; the region will grow at two speeds should these forecasts hold true.

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The prospects for employment

GDPgrowthisthe keyfactorwhenwelookat expected changes in unemployment levels. The expectedmoderategrowthinPoland,Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Hungary corresponds with significant anticipated falls in unemployment in these five countries. The only exception among the group of moderately growing countries is the Czech Republic,wherethe majorityofCFOsexpectjob numbers to decline. Those southern countries that expect to grow more slowly also anticipate decline in the jobs market.

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How CFOs expect levels of unemployment to change in their countries over the next 12 months

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CFOwishlistfor2015:Revenuegrowth and increased FDI

Slovenian CFOs see foreign direct investment (FDI) as the most important growth factor for the Slovenian economy in 2015. Their main activities in the coming months will be focused on growing revenues.Remodellingandrestructuringtheir companies do not seem to be among their priorities.

In the next 12 months, the main focus of Slovenian companies will be on growing revenues, primarily from their current markets but from new markets as well.

The focusin2014shiftedfrom2013’simprovingliquidity(stillthe mostimportantitem for 8% of CFOs) to revenue growth, which headed the list for 68% in late 2014.

NewinvestmentsremainCFOs’leastimportant area of consideration for the second consecutive year.

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Business focus for the next 12 months (1-leastimportant,6-mostimportant)

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Graph 7

Companies’ business focus over the next 12 months PercentageofCFOsconsideringthe areaastheirpriorityandbelievingthis is a good time to take risk (a darker hue marks a higher position in the ranking of priorities).

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Albania AL 67% 33% 82% 43% 67% 40% 7%

Bułgaria BG 85% 59% 50% 55% 36% 41% 11%

Croatia HR 65% 48% 57% 58% 38% 41% 10%

the CzechRepublicCZ 82% 69% 61% 56% 19% 39% 34%

Estonia EE 84% 47% 44% 53% 32% 43% 19%

Hungary HU 79% 58% 59% 55% 30% 24% 27%

KosovoRKS 67% 30% 62% 88% 67% 29% 19%

Latvia LV 72% 62% 54% 48% 28% 58% 32%

Lithuania LT 60% 39% 68% 65% 50% 54% 61%

PolandPL 86% 57% 55% 38% 52% 44% 47%

RomaniaRO 75% 50% 60% 70% 39% 26% 12%

Serbia RS 74% 60% 57% 56% 55% 29% 16%

Slovakia SK 81% 56% 78% 53% 20% 26% 9%

Slovenia SI 70% 61% 49% 44% 37% 29% 16%



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Inthe largestblockofgrowth-seekingcountries,CFOs’toptwobusinessprioritiesarefirst to increase growth from current markets, followed by growing revenues from new markets.CFOsinKosovo,the CzechRepublic,Hungary, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania and Croatia will direct their companies towards meeting these goals. In these countries, factors like austerity,costcontrolsandimprovingliquidityare out, and expansion priorities are clearly in. CFOs from two economies that in the last edition of the survey were among these growth-seekingcountrieshaveshiftedtheirprioritiesindifferentdirections.Polandbecomes the only outsider where making new investments has risen to become the second most important business priority.

Romaniahasmovedinthe oppositedirectiontojointhe secondblockofcostadvantage-seekingcountries,asRomanianCFOsselectedthe need to reduce direct costs as their second most important priority. Other countries seeking cost advantages also include Serbia, Estonia and Slovakia.

The remaining outsider is Albania, the only countrywhereincreasedliquidityisthe secondmost important business priority reported by CFOs. It is worth noting that last year we observedan entiregroupofstability-seekingcountrieswhoseCFOschoseimprovedliquidityamong their two top priorities. This group has practically disappeared as CFOs in all countries except Albania changed their priorities over the last year.

The pan-regionalview – two groups of companies and two outsiders

There is consensus among all CFOs on their toppriority,regardlessofanycountry-specificconditions. For the clear majority of all our respondents, the business focus for next year is to grow their revenues from their current markets. Comparing the top priorities for CFOs by country over the next 12 months, we see two distinct blocks. We have called these“growth-seeking”and“costadvantage-seeking”countries.Therearealsotwooutliers,PolandandAlbania,whereCFOshavechosena different second priority from their peers in all other countries in the region.


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Business remodelling or restructuring will not be a priority for half of the surveyed Slovenian CFOs in the next 12 months. A quarterviewitasa highlylikelypriorityfor their business, while another 25% expect it to be a moderate priority in the next 12 months.

Inadditiontothe questionsrelatingtoCFOs’expectationsofthe focusoftheircompanies, we asked what they expect to be the most important growth factors for the Slovenian economy during the next 12 months. Most participating CFOs nominated foreign direct investment (41%), while 27% opted for effective government policies and 11% for tax reductions.

Graph 8

Expectations of the extent to which business remodelling/restructuring is likely to be a priority over the next 12 months

Graph 9

CFOs’ views of the most important growth factors for the Slovenian economy during the next 12 months

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Corporate priorities

CFOs will also be leading a significant amount of corporate restructuring/remodelling over the next year. This will be strong priority for more than 50% of CFOs in all countries except Latvia, Slovenia and Albania, where recent major restructuring projects have already been implemented at great pace. Overall, the level of expected restructuring/remodelling in the region is impressive, as much has already been done in most CE markets in recent years.

Graph 10

To what extent is business remodelling or restructuring likely to be a priority for your business over the next 12 months?

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Expectations for the year ahead

In 2014, CFO expectations that the Slovenian market will further consolidate in the next 12 months strengthened. An increase in local M&A activity is expected by 76% of the respondents (compared to 62% a year ago). Despite this visible increase in the share of those expecting an increase, 8% of participants expect a decrease in M&A activities.

The opinion of CFOs expecting an increase can be aligned to the privatisation of Ljubljana Airport and Helios in 2014, and to the further commitment of the Slovenian governmenttocontinueprivatisingstate-owned companies. The new government that took office in September 2014 confirmed it will continue on this path.

Graph 11

Expected changes in M&A levels in Slovenia over the next 12 months

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The expected increase in M&A activities in many markets is another means of seeking efficiency savings at a time where the simple goal of increasing revenues from current markets can be difficult to achieve organically. Slovenia,Bulgaria,Lithuania,Latvia,Poland,the CzechRepublicandRomania,countriescurrently at different stages of the economic growth cycle, will see much M&A activity in the next 12 months.

Graph 12

How CFOs expect levels of M&A activity to change in their countries over the next 12 months

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AccordingtoSlovenianCFOs,Germanyand Austria reinforced their positions as the markets expected to be the most important for Slovenian companies in the year to come. These two traditional Slovenian trading partners were selected by62%,a 21percentage-pointsincreaseover late 2013. The two eurozone countries were followed by former Yugoslav republics with a 28% share. Compared to the survey carried out in late 2013, there has been a notable change in the proportion of respondentsselectingRussiaandformerUSSRcountriesasthe mostimportant–2%in 2014, down from 14% a year ago.

This is fuelled by uncertainties in Ukraine and the related western sanctions imposed onRussia,followedbyfallingoilpricesandthe significantdepreciationofthe Russianrouble in late 2014.

Graph 13

Expectations of which foreign markets will be most important for Slovenian companies in the next 12 months

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ParticipatingCFOsfeelthatgovernmentpolicies continue to be the key factor impactingSlovenia’sweakeconomicdevelopment during the last couple of years. 43% of participating CFOs stated that the Slovenian economy is most constrained by the excessive economic involvement of the government, followed by unfavourable tax legislation (20%) and inadequategovernmentpoliciespromotingentrepreneurship in Slovenia (16%). CFOs continue to perceive staffing issues and businessself-confidenceasthe leastimportant issues impacting Slovenian economic development.

Graph 14

CFOs’ views of the most important obstacles to Slovenian economic development (1-leastimportant,6-mostimportant)

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Views regarding the three out of six suggested main challenges that Slovenian CFOs currently face are distributed between several answers. The largest group of participating CFOs (28%) regards the reduction of operating costs as their main current challenge. This is closely followed by the need to upgrade business processes (25%) and recover bad debts (15%). Debt restructuring and financing options for new investment are the main challenges for 13% and 12% respectively.

Graph 15

CFOs’ view on the main challenges they currently face

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The CFOs were invited to share their views onthe businessimpactofCroatia’sentryinto the EU on 1 July 2013. Based on the responses received, it appears that this has not had a major effect on participating CFOs’companies.Most(51%)believeithadnoimpact,while29%believetheirbusiness has been only partly affected. It is somewhat surprising that only 10% feelCroatia’sentryhada positiveeffect,but this is probably because Croatia is an important market for only a few of the CFOs participating in the survey.

Graph 16

CFOs’ view on the impact of Croatia‘s entry in the EU on their business

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Risk

The return of optimism, though caution remains

CFOs’outlooksonthe financialprospectsof their companies have taken a turn for the better since the survey carried out in late 2013. 53% of Slovenian CFOs feel fairly or very optimistic about the financial future of their companies. This is a positive change of attitude, which is also in line with economic forecasts from government institutions. When compared to the results of previous CFO surveys, we can see a positive trend: optimism has increased from 30% of participants in early 2013 to 53% in late 2014.

The proportion of CFOs who are less optimisticabouttheircompanies’financialprospects has steadily decreased, from 30% in early 2013 to 27% in late 2013, and now – following a significant decrease – to 10% in the most recent survey. This indicator is one of the lowest among the group of 14 Central European countries that took part in the latest edition of the survey. This fact is somewhat surprising, as only the Czech RepublicandKosovo,with5%and6%respectively, had a lower proportion of less optimistic participating CFOs. 37% of respondents feel that the financial prospects of their companies have not changed over the last 12 months.

Graph 17

Outlook on financial prospects (compared with 12 months ago)

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When asked how they would rate the general level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business, most of the CFOs (77%) told us it is above normal, high or very high. It seems that the scale of uncertainty has decreased since our previous CFO surveys. Likewise the share of CFOs who view the level of uncertainty as very high fell to 10% in late 2014 from much higher levels in early and late 2013. Compared to other CE countries participating in the 2014 survey, the share of Slovenian CFOs who see uncertainty as high (43%) is the second highest among all 14 countries.

Nearly one Slovenian CFO in four (23%) believes that uncertainty is at a normal level.

The diversity of opinion among respondentsimpliesthata business’sfinancial and economic uncertainty depends on various factors, although the level of uncertainty held by CFOs has decreased. One of the reasons for the continuing high proportion of CFOs who view financial and economic uncertainty as very high might be the still limited availability of finance from Slovenian banks, which was also expressed in the survey.

Graph 18

General levels of external financial and economic uncertainty

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The majority of CFOs in the region describe the general level of external financial uncertainty as above normal, high or very high. This majority is as high as 88% in Croatia and80%inRomania.Inonlythreecountries(the CzechRepublic,PolandandEstonia)do more CFOs perceive this uncertainty as normal than think it is above normal, high or very high. This suggests that CFOs in Central Europe are in fact operating at a time when higher uncertainty has become part of the “newnormal”environment. Many companies are reacting to this situation by withholding investment funds and focusing onquickwinsintheirexistingmarkets. While this strategy is typical of how to deal with a cyclical downward economic shift, there is less clarity about the appropriate risk appetite

Graph 19

CFOs’ opinions on the general level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their businesses

in an environment where high levels of external financial uncertainty are becoming established for the long term. External uncertainty is a key obstacle preventing the shift towards an expansionary investment mode.

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Very High High Above Normal Normal*Percentagesmaynotaddto100%duetorounding.


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The improvement in optimism and decreased levels of uncertainty in Slovenia expressed by responding CFOs are also reflected in their view on taking greater riskontotheircompanies’balancesheets.In the 2014 survey, 16% of responses were positive whereas in late 2013 the CFOs were unanimously reluctant to increase risk. This would suggest that, while CFOs in Slovenia remain cautious and conservative, a shift in attitude can be seen in 2014.

Graph 20

CFOs’ views on whether now is a good time to be taking greater risk on to their companies’ balance sheets

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Mixed views on risk appetite

The majority of CFOs in all countries except Lithuania believe that now is not the time to take greater risks on to company balance sheets. There is a notable diversity of opinion onrisk-takingacrossthe region:clearly,fewerCFOsare“rushingforgold”inthe Balkans than in the Baltic and Visegrad countries (with the exception of Slovakia). The differences between the risk perspectives of CFOs from different countries are marked. In Albania, only 7% of CFOs believe that their companies should increase their risk exposure, while 61% of Lithuanian CFOs are bullish about taking greater risk in order to explore growth potential. It is also worth

Graph 21

CFO views on whether this is a good time to take greater risk on to company balance sheets

EE

19%

%81

AL

7%

%93

SK

9%

%91

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%90

BG

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%89

RO

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%88

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16%

%84

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%84

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19%

%81

HU

27%

%73

LV

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%68

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%66

PL

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%53

LT

62%

%39



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noting that risk appetite has increased during the lastyearinthe region’sthreelargesteconomies:Poland(from39%to47%), the CzechRepublic(from30%to34%) and Hungary (from 24% to 27%). Thesecountriesshareover50%ofCE’stotalGDP,andtheirproportionofCFOswhoappearreadytoincreasetheircompanies’exposureto risk is relatively high. Notably, risk aversion increasedsharplyintwoofthe region’sotherlargeeconomies.InRomania,the percentageof CFOs willing to take more risk dropped from 30% last year to just 12% in this edition. In Slovakia, the percentage of CFOs believing that“nowisa goodtimetotakegreaterrisk”fellfrom21%tolessthan9%.

Graph 22

Percentage of CFOs choosing “Now is a good time to take greater risk on to a company’s balance sheet”

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ROSK

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6THCFO SURVEY

5THCFO SURVEY

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3RDCFO SURVEY

2NDCFO SURVEY

1ST CFO SURVEY


Financing


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Financing

Gradualimprovement;bankborrowing becomes more attractive,butthe qualityofbank assets remains fragile

In 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) carried out a comprehensive assessment of the banking system, which included threeofSlovenia’ssignificantbanks(NLBd.d.,NovaKBMd.d.andSIDbankad.d.,Ljubljana). The assessment was composed ofan assetqualityreviewanda stresstest,whichcovereda three-yearperiodstartingon 31 December 2013.

The adverse scenario used in the stress test identified a capital shortfall in two of the largest Slovenian banks totalling to EUR65m.Itshouldbenotedthatboththese banks have the capacity to cover their shortfalls from operating profits, meaningnoadditionalstate“bailout”likethoseseenin2013wasrequired.Itshouldbe noted that this result was affected by the assumptions used within the stress test, which did not take into account the favourable economic trends seen in 2014. This also caused an apparent large declineinthe capitaladequacyofSlovenianbanks, the largest among the countries participating in the ECB assessment.

The banking sector started to improve gradually in 2014, which was confirmed by those participating CFOs who mentioned an improvement in the availability of bank lending. According to the Bank of Slovenia, the Slovenian banking system recorded a profitinthe firsthalfof2014;italsonoted, however, that an improvement in lending to the creditworthy corporate sector willberequiredtoensurestablefutureearnings.


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In order to further repair bank balance sheetsinSlovenia,anotherEUR1.1bnwas transferred to BAMC in October 2014. The volume of loans to domestic non-bankingsectorscontinuedtodeclinein2014,witha decreaseofEUR2.3bntaking place by October 2014. According to IMAD, this decline was mostly due to the deleveraging of corporate loans, those tonon-financialinstitutions(NFIs)andthe transferstoBAMC;householdlendingonly fell marginally during the period.

The volume of deposits increased throughout 2014, with the government contributingthe largestsharewitha EUR1.3bn increase by October 2014. This increase was mostly due to the redistribution of assets from the central bank to commercial bank accounts. While household deposits stoppedgrowinginthe thirdquarter,theyalsoincreasedbyOctober2014,EUR600mincrease.

BankofSlovenianotedthatnon-performingloansover90daysinarrearsdeclinedfollowingthe transferofnon-performingloanstothe BAMCinlate2013;however,they started to increase in the first half of 2014 to reach 15.3% of the total as at 30 June 2014. This trend continued into the thirdquarterwiththe shareofloansinarrearsincreasingto15.7%(EUR6.2bn)asat the end of September 2014.


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According to responding CFOs, a gradual improvement in the availability of new credit is underway, although the predominant share of participants still says loans are difficult to obtain. The attractiveness of bank borrowing expressed by the CFOs also appears to be mirrored in an improved opinion on the availability of new borrowing, with 39%ofCFOssayingthatitisnormallyor easily available. This is almost double the share from the previous survey.

Although these results are fairly encouraging, 61% of Slovenian CFOs still consider new loans to be currently difficult to obtain. These results were to be expected, as the situation in the banking system started to gradually improve after the transfer of doubtful receivablestoBAMCandthe government’sbailoutofthe state-ownedbanksinlate2013 and 2014.

Graph 23

Overall current availability of new credit for Slovenian companies

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A comparison between survey results in Slovenia and those from other participating countries shows that Slovenia is for the second year in a row the country where bank loans are deemed by far the most difficult to obtain. The belief was also noted by IMAD that more creditworthy clients have started to look abroad for more easily available funding. A year on, and following a second stress test, the results of the survey combined with macroeconomic data suggest the urgency of continuing the restructuring of Slovenian banking system.

Graph 24

Overall current availability of new credit for companies (European level)(1-leastimportant,6-mostimportant)

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46% of participants in Slovenia feel that bank loans are neither an attractive nor an unattractive source of finance (compared to 53% in the previous survey). This decrease from last time has moved the assessment of CFOs closer to the view that bank borrowing is attractive (21%, a notable increase from 6% in late 2013). Even though loans seem to be more accessible, the proportion of CFOs who see bank borrowing as unattractive still remainsata relativelyhigh33%-oneofthe highest among the countries taking part in the 2014 survey.

These opinions can be linked to the view of IMAD, which notes the contraction in the stockofloanstothe domesticnon-banking sector coupled with unfavorable borrowing terms for corporate clients.

Graph 25

Current attractiveness of bank borrowing as a source of funding

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Raisingequityasa sourceoffundingisattractive to 21% of participating CFOs. A comparison with our previous surveys reveals a further downward trend, as 24% and 33% of participating CFOs respectively agreed with this statement in late 2013 and early 2013. Conversely, the share of participating CFOs who found the prospect ofraisingequityunattractiveincreasedto43% (compared respectively to 32% and 30% in late 2013 and early 2013).

Graph 26

The attractiveness of raising equity as a sourceof funding

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Graph 27

Currently, CFOs believe bank borrowing as a source of funding is:

Funding alternatives

There is considerable diversity in the perceived attractivenessofbankborrowingversusequityfinanceamongCEcountries.InPoland, the CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Hungary,LatviaandLithuania,CFOsregardraisingequityasa less attractive option for funding their plans than bank borrowing. The opposite holds true forCFOsfromSerbia,CroatiaandRomania,countries where the availability of new credit is often more restricted. In the remaining countries, there is a less pronounced orientation towards bank credit rather than raisingequity.

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Graph 28

Currently, CFOs believe raising equity as a source of funding is:

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Debt

Easing debt servicing and decreasing costs

Slovenian CFOs are increasingly optimistic regarding expected changes in their companies’abilitytoservicedebtoverthe next three years. 58% of participating CFOs expressed confidence that the ability of their companies to service debt will improve inyearstocome(comparedto39%and57% in the late and early 2013 surveys, respectively).Consequently,the shareofCFOswho believe the ability to service their debt remains the same has decreased to 37% in 2014 from 52% in late 2013. In late 2014, a minority 5% of participants expected their ability to service debt to worsen.

Graph 29

Expected changes in companies’ ability to service debt over the next three years

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Decrease

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5230

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39


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Graph 30

How CFOs expect their ability to service debt to change over the next three years

In Latvia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Albania andPoland,the majorityofCFOsexpecttheirability to service debt over the next three years to increase, or to remain the same. In other countries, most CFOs predict no change in their ability to service their debt, while a notable proportion expects a moderate improvement over the next three years. This view indicates that the best is yet to come. Interestinglythe north/southdivideinGDPexpectations is not mirrored in these longer-termforecasts.Thissuggeststhatthe two-speedGDPgrowthphenomenonwedescribe earlier is a temporary rather than a structural divide.

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Increase a lot

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Expectations of a change in financing costs in the next 12 months have changed dramatically since late 2013. Now, only 15% of Slovenian CFOs expect costs to increase, compared to 53% a year ago. In addition, this time 37% believe financing costs will decrease in the year to come. No CFOs shared that opinion in late 2013, and only 3% did so in early 2013.

Graph 31

Expected changes in financing costs for companies over the next 12 months

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Increase somewhat

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Graph 32

How CFOs expect their levels of gearing to change over the next 12 months

Gearingandcostsoffinance

Most CFOs in the region remain cautious on the subject of gearing. In seven markets, the clearmajorityanticipatesnochange;inallcountriesexceptPolandthe largestproportionofCFOschoosethisoption.The factthatPolandand Lithuania have the largest proportion of CFOs anticipating an increase in gearing corresponds with these two countries also having the highest proportion of CFOs who say that now is a good time to take greater risk on to the balance sheet. Efforts to reduce gearing will be more common among CFOs based in southerly countries like Albania, Croatia, Bosnia, Slovenia, Serbia and Hungary, where most CFOs anticipate reductions in the level of gearing.

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Talent

No shortage of Slovenian financial talent

The surveyed CFOs still expect no shortage of talent in the finance area in Slovenia over the next year. The proportion of CFOs believing this bounced back in late 2014 (71%) from 65% in late 2013, following a fall from 86% in early 2013. Based on the above it seems that most Slovenian companies participating in the survey canfindemployeeswithadequateknowledgeand talents to perform financial roles.

Graph 33

Expectations of talent shortages in the finance area over the next year

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No

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35

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14


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Graph 34

Whether or not CFOs expect talent shortages in the finance area over the next year

Talent shortages and prospects for finance professionals

The majority of CFOs in the region do not expect any talent shortages in financial roles.

There is a considerable diversity of opinion, however. For example, the prospects for experienced finance professionals are promising in Lithuania, Serbia and Slovakia, wheremiddleandsenior-levelfinanceexecutives are more in demand than in any other country in Central Europe. AL

93%

%7

BG

78%

%22

HR

71%

%29

CZ

78%

%22

EE

70%

%30

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78%

%22

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87%

%13

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58%

%42

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48%

%52

PL

74%

%26

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73%

%27

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49%

%51

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48%

%52

SI

71%

%29

No

Yes



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The view of those CFOs foreseeing a shortage of finance personnel during the next 12 months is fairly evenly distributed among the graduate, middle and top level employees (c. 25%), while 13% of CFOs expects shortage among either Junior or Senior level.

Graph 35

Areas of shortages among finance personnel over the next 12 months

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Junior level

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9

DGCCFOSurvey


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Following the launch of the CFO Survey in Slovenia, we have also now for the second time examined the general views among CFOsofsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(orsocalledDynamic-GrowthCompaniesor‘DGCs’),mostrecentlyinlate2014.The results of the survey, which was also completedviaface-to-faceinterviews,mainlyshowthatDGCsfacea numberofchallenges similar to those facing larger Slovene companies, although there are some differences in opinion.

Common areas between DGCsandthe largerSloveniancompanies

The general level of external financial and economic uncertainty seems to be similar in both environments. Both surveys show that most participating CFOs rate the general level of external financial and economic uncertainty as above normal, high or very high (74% of larger company CFOs and 81% ofDGCCFOs).

CFOs of both company types have similar expectations when it comes to important foreignmarkets:Austria,Germanyand former Yugoslav republics will be the marketstofocusonin2015(94%oflargercompanyCFOsand85%ofDGCCFOs).

Reducingoperatingcostsiscurrentlythe main challenge for CFOs in both environments(59%oflargercompanyCFOsand60%ofDGCCFOsplaceitamongtheirtop three challenges). Upgrading business processes is the second most important challenge for both groups (60% of larger companyCFOsand44%ofDGCCFOsplaceit among their top three challenges).

Both groups perceive the excessive economic involvementofthe government(41%ofDGCCFOs and 43% of larger company CFOs) as the most important obstacle to Slovenian economic development. This is followed by unfavourabletaxlegislationinSlovenia(19%ofDGCCFOsand20%oflargercompanyCFOs).


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IntermsofexpectationsforSlovenianGDPgrowthin2015,mostDGCCFOs(59%)expect this to be stagnant, with growth of up to 1.5%. However, this percentage is slightly larger amongst larger company CFOs (62%). A similar trend towards slightly improved optimism is also detectable among those CFOs from both environments who expectmoderateGDPgrowthof1.5%-3%(33%ofDGCCFOsand35%oflargercompany CFOs).

DGCCFOsvslargercompanyCFOs: The main differences

According to surveyed CFOs, their companies will focus on revenue growth over the next 12 months. However, the focusofDGCCFOsseemstobesplit between new and current markets, whereas the larger companies will be more focused on growth in their current markets. The largercompanies’CFOslistedrevenuegrowth in their current markets as the most important challenge (46%), compared with 33%ofDGCCFOs.33%ofDGCCFOsand23% of larger company CFOs list revenue growth from new markets as their most important challenge during the next 12 months.

Opinions regarding their ability to service debtdiffersomewhat,with44%ofDGCCFOsexpectingtheircompanies’abilitytoservice debt over the next three years to remain the same, while only 31% of larger companyCFOssharethatopinion.Roughly45% of CFOs from both environments expect a smaller increase, while 20% of the larger company CFOs are more optimistic and believe that the ability of their companies to service debts will increase significantly.Only4%ofDGCCFOssharethis optimism.

Accordingto42%ofDGCCFOs,businessremodelling/restructuring will be a priority for their companies over the next 12 months. On the other hand, 54% of larger company CFOs view this as a priority for the upcoming year.


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There is a slight difference in the minority of CFOs expecting recession in 2015, with moreDGCCFOs(8%)thanlargercompanyCFOs (3%). No surveyed CFOs expect growthgreaterthan3%.Ingeneral,DGCCFOs are slightly more pessimistic, although both groups are noticeably more optimistic than in the previous year, which is consistent withgeneralmacro-economicforecastsforSlovenia.

Only19%ofsurveyedDGCCFOsfeelnowis a good time to be taking greater risk ontotheircompanies’balancesheets,compared to the 14 % of larger company CFOs who share this opinion. The share of CFOs believing that this is a good time to take greater risk has increased since the last survey.

Graph 36

DGC CFOs’ expectations for Slovenian GDP growth in 2015

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Stagnation(0%-1.5%)

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Recession

Graph 37

DGC CFOs’ views on whether now is a good time to take greater risk on to their companies’ balance sheets

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Yes

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Bank borrowing as a source of funding seems to be noticeably more unattractive to DGCCFOs(38%)thantothoseofthe largestSloveniancompanies(29%).Thereisan evenlarger difference when it comes to CFOs whofindbankborrowingattractive(DGCCFOs12%;largecompanyCFOs29%).Compared to last year, there has been a big shift in opinions regarding the attractiveness of bank borrowing. In general, bank borrowing seems more attractive than last year, although its attractiveness has fallenamongDGCCFOsandrisenamongthe CFOs of larger companies.

Graph 38

Attractiveness of bank borrowing as a source of funding

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A large majority of all CFOs find it difficult to obtain bank loans. While the situation has improved significantly compared to last year, the data obtained suggests that additional measures should be taken to address the Slovenianbankingsystem.DGCCFOsfind bank loans less difficult to obtain than largercompanies(DGCCFOs50%;largercompany CFOs 68%), which is a change in opinionfromlastyear.Asa consequence,a largerproportionofDGCCFOsfindsbankloansnormallyavailable(DGCCFOs46%;largercompanyCFOs29%).Onlya smallproportion finds bank loans easily available (DGCCFOs4%;largercompanyCFOs3%).

Graph 39

Overall current availability of new credit for Slovenian companies

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Easily available

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Similartolastyear,DGCCFOsaresomewhatmore optimistic than their colleagues from larger Slovene companies. However, the difference in optimism levels is much smaller than last year. The percentage of CFOs who think that financing cost will decreasesomewhatisverysimilar(DGCCFOs37%;largercompanyCFOs34%).MoreDGCCFOsthinkthatfinancingcostswillnotchange(DGCCFOs56%;largercompany CFOs 43%). More CFOs of larger companies are pessimistic and expect a smallerincreaseinfinancingcosts(DGCCFOs7%;largercompanyCFOs20%).

Graph 40

Expected change in financing costs for companies over the next 12 months

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The majority of surveyed CFOs expect no shortage of talent in the finance area in Slovenia over the next year. The percentage ofDGCCFOs(59%)whoexpectnoshortages is lower than that of larger companies (80%). Higher levels of optimism were seen among larger companies CFOs in this area for the upcoming year.

Graph 41

Expectations of talent shortages in the finance area over the next year

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Yes

No


For more information on the Deloitte CFO Survey please contact:

Yuri [email protected]

Rado BekešFinancial Advisory [email protected]

Matic [email protected]

Zala PraprotnikCoordinator, Clients & [email protected]

About the survey

The 6th CE CFO survey took place in October & November 2014. A total of 550 CFOs across 14 countries completed our survey. The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey that seeks to establish the views of CFOsinrelationtothe financialmarkets,economicoutlookandbusinesstrendsona quarterlybasis.

DeloitteCECFOsurveyisa “pulsesurvey”thatprovidesCFOswithinformationregardingtheirpeers’thinkingacrossa varietyoftopics.Itisnot,norisitintendedtobe,scientificinitsnumberofrespondents, selection of respondents, or response rate —especially within individual industries.

We would like to thank all participating CFOs for their efforts in completing our survey. We hope the report makes an interesting read, clearly highlighting the challenges facing CFOs, and providing an important benchmark to understand how your organization rates among peers.

DeloittereferstooneormoreofDeloitteToucheTohmatsuLimited,a UKprivatecompanylimitedbyguarantee(“DTTL”),itsnetworkofmemberfirms,andtheirrelatedentities.DTTLandeachofitsmemberfirmsarelegallyseparateandindependententities.DTTL(alsoreferredtoas“DeloitteGlobal”)doesnotprovideservicestoclients.Pleaseseewww.deloitte.com/aboutfora moredetaileddescription of DTTL and its member firms.

Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, financial advisory and legal services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150countriesandterritories,Deloittebringsworld-classcapabilitiesandhigh-qualityservicetoclients,deliveringthe insightstheyneedtoaddresstheirmostcomplexbusinesschallenges.Deloitte’smore than 200,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence.

Deloitte Central Europe is a regional organization of entities organized under the umbrella of Deloitte Central Europe Holdings Limited, the member firm in Central Europe of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited. Services are provided by the subsidiaries and affiliates of Deloitte Central Europe Holdings Limited, which are separate and independent legal entities.

The subsidiariesandaffiliatesofDeloitteCentralEuropeHoldingsLimitedareamongthe region’sleadingprofessionalservicesfirms,providingservicesthroughmorethan3,900peoplein34officesin17 countries.

© 2015 Deloitte Central Europe

optimistic but cautious central europe cfo survey …others. the cfo survey discloses the...

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