optimal level of reserves washington, october 20 2006 xxiv meeting of the latin american network of...
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Optimal level of reserves Optimal level of reserves
Washington, October 20 2006
XXIV Meeting of the Latin American Network of Central Banks
and Finance Ministries
Adrián Armas
2
Reasons for accumulating international reserves
Lack of an international lender of last resort.
Negative experiences with privately funded liquidity insurance
Pooling of reserves
3
Some facts about the pooling of reserves
There are some issues to evaluate:
Possible simultaneity in the demand for resourcesResources used to constitute the pool may not be considered as high quality assets.Differences in economic size among countries can generate problems of resource allocation
4
If potential members of a reserve pool face symmetric shocks, there could be a
simultaneous demand for resources. Shocks in the real sector seems not to be highly correlated
GDP growth: Correlation coeficient, 1990: 2006
ARG
BOL BOL
BRA BRA
CHI CHI
COL COL
ECU ECU
PAR PAR
PER PER
URU URU
VEN VEN
higher than 0,50 10 casesBetween 0,40 - 0,49 14 casesLower than 0,39 21 cases
5
However, correlation among spreads can signal some potential simultaneity in the
demand for resourcesCorrelation coeficient EMBI: 1998 - 2006
EMBI+
LATIN LATIN
ARG ARG
BRA BRA
COL COL
ECU ECU
MEX MEX
PER PER
VEN VEN
CHI
Higher than 0,50 32 cases
Betw een 0,40 and 0,49 3 cases
Lower than 0,39 10 cases
6
Optimal level of international reserves
An adequate level of international reserves can be used as a self insurance during financial turmoil.
According to the literature on financially dollarized economies, a higher degree of dollarization increases the vulnerability of the financial system to liquidity and solvency risks.
Gulde et al (2004) point out that it is harder to deal with a bank run in a highly dollarized economy, because it is subject to more risk.
7
Fiscal deficit1997 – 2006
(as percentage of GDP)
-0,1
1,0
3,2 3,3
2,52,3
1,7
1,0
0,3
-1,1
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
* June (last 4 quarters)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
8
Public debt1999 – 2006
(as percentage of GDP)
47,145,4 45,9 46,5 47,0
44,3
37,835,3
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 *
* June
9
Financial dollarization indicators
Even though dollarization indicators in Peru show a decreasing trend over the last few years, financial
dollarization is still high
* August
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Monetary aggregate Credit to the private sector
2006*
10
Monetary policy framework in Peru
Inflation targeting
+
Financial dollarization risks control
Dedollarization policies
Internalization of risks and policy responses to negative shocks
11
Financial dollarization risks
Financial dollarization risks Policy responses
Liquidity risk (maturity mismatch) Inflation targeting framework
Exchange rate risk Capital market development in domestic currencyHigh reserve requirement on foreign currency liabilitiesHigh level of international reservesCentral bank moderates excessive exchange rate volatility
12
Net international reserves1997- 2006(in billions of US$)
10,29,2
8,4 8,2 8,69,6
10,2
12,6
14,115,2
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
* September
*
13
Peru’s reserve adequacy ratio is higher than other countries of the region
2/ Indicators calculated for 2005.
Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook. Country Credit. May 2006
Moody's - S&P Ratings
External vulnerability
indicator 1/ 2/
Peru (Ba3 - BB) 2,56
Argentina (B3 - B+) 0,56
Brasil (Ba3 - BB) 0,68
Chile (Baa1 - A) 1,24
Colombia (Ba2 - BB+) 0,99
Ecuador (Caa1 - CCC+) 0,22
El Salvador (Baa3 - BB+) 0,78
Mexico (Baa1 - BBB) 1,82
Paraguay (Caa1 - B-) 1,82
Venezuela (B2 - BB-) 1,65
1/ NIR / (Short-term external debt + Amortization paid on external debt)
14
International liquidity indicators should also consider financial
dollarization risks
11 months 11 months
2,6 times 2,7 times
0,9 times 1,0 times
1/ NIR and foreign exchange position as of September 30, imports as of August 31 and short term external liabilities as of June 30.
NIR / (Short term external liabilities+ Banking system foreign currency broad money)
2005 2006 1/
NIR / Imports of goods and servicesNIR / Short term external liabilities
1/ NIR as of September 30, imports as of August 31 and short term external liabilities as of June 30.
15
Foreign exchange interventionJanuary 2002 – September 2006
Brasil, 2002
Peru, presidential elections
Precautionary accumulation of reserves
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
CDBCRP / credit NIR
Risks in reserve accumulation
Percentage
CDBCRP balances relative to credit to the private sector
Billions of US$
17
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
CDBCRP balances Interest rate Reference rate
Risks in reserve accumulation
Millions of S/. Percentage
CDBCRP balances and average interest rate of CDBCRP: 2003- 2006
18
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06
Interest rate of CDBCRP 3 month LIBOR
Risks in reserve accumulation
Percentage
Average interest rate of CDBCRP and 3 month LIBOR
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Conclusions
• During 2003-2005, the BCRP has accumulated NIR with the objective of being in a better position to face negative shocks that could be amplified due to financial dollarization.
• Foreign exchange intervention and NIR accumulation have been consistent with the Inflation Targeting framework in a dollarized economy. In particular: a. Inflation target has been met since IT adoption. b. Sterilized intervention have kept interest
rates in line with the interbank reference rate.