optimal cash management control for processes with two
TRANSCRIPT
Optimal Cash ManagementControl for Processes with
two-sided JumpsNora Muler
Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT), Buenos AiresEAJ 2016, Lyon
Coauthor: Pablo Azcue (UTDT)
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Consider a continuous time cash management problem of a firm where theuncontrolled money stock Xt is a compound Poisson process with two-sidedjumps and a negative drift m;
Xt x mt
Negative Jumps
โi1
Nt1
โUi1
Positive Jumps
โj1
Nt2
Uj2.
We assume:
1 The arrival Poisson processes Nt1 corresponding to the negative jumps
and Nt2corresponding to positive jumps are independent of each other with
intensity 1 and 2 respectively.2 The sizes of the negative and positive jumps are iid random variables with
distributions F1 and F2 independent of each other as well.
A Brownian motion can also be added to the uncontrolled process. We considerin this presentation, for simplicity sake, the one without Brownian motion.
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In this optimization problem the aim is to minimize theexpected discounted cost: The money managercontinuously monitors the cashflow and at any time he/shecan increase or decrease the amount of cash.
The cost has two components: the opportunity cost ofholding cash and the cost coming from decreasing andincreasing the amount of cash.
We consider the case that both the cost of increasing anddecreasing the amount of cash have proportional and fixedcomponents; the fixed components lead to an impulsecontrol problem.
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The control strategy should be adapted and consists on both the times andamounts of downward and upward adjustments of cash: d,u,โ d n
d,Zndnโฅ0 , n
dare the times and Zn
d the amount of downwardadjustments.
โ u nu,Zn
unโฅ0 and nu
are the times and Znu the amounts of upward
adjustments .
The corresponding controlled process is:
Xt Xt โ
Downward Adjustments
โn1
In
dโคtZnd
Upward Adjustments
โn1
In
uโคtZnu.
We assume that it is mandatory to inject cash in order that Xt โฅ 0 for all t.
Let us call Kd0 0 and Kd
1 โฅ 0 the fixed and proportional cost coefficient ofdownward adjustment and Ku
0 0 and Ku1 โฅ 0 the ones of upward
adjustments.
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Let 0 be the discount rate. The expected discounted cost has two terms.
1. The total expected discounted opportunity cost of holding cash:
Hx Ex0
eโtaXt
dt, where a 0.
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1. The total expected discounted opportunity cost Hx of holding cash:
Hx Ex 0
eโtaXt
dt, where a 0.
2. The total expected discounted cost Ax coming from adjustments:An upward adjustment Zn
d of cash at time nd a cost Kd
0 Kd1Zn
d.A downward adjustment Zn
u of cash at time nu a cost Ku
0 Ku1Zn
u.
Ax Ex
Discounted cost of downward adjustments
โn1
eโn
dKd
0 Kd1Zn
d
Discounted cost of upward adjustments
โn1 eโn
uKu
0 Ku1Zn
u
So the value function of an strategy is
Cx Hx Ax.And our aim is to find Cx inf Cx and the optimal strategy โ(if it exists).
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Properties of Cx:โ Cx โค Kd
1x K0 (linear growth condition) and it is Lipschitz.โ It is a viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB)
equation:
min LCx, min0โคwโคx
Kd1w Kd
0Cx โ wโCx,minzโฅ0Ku
1z Ku0Cz x โ Cx 0,
where
LCxmC โฒx โ1 2 Cx 1 0
Cx โ dF1 2 0
Cx dF2 ax
We will see that C โฒ could not exists at some points.
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HJB equation and the optimal strategy.If the current cash reserve x satisfies the equality
min0โคwโคx
Kd1w Kd
0Cx โ w โ Cx 0,
the optimal strategy would be a downward adjustment.
Calling
Zdarg min0โคwโคx
Kd1w Kd
0Cx โ w
the cash reserve after the adjustment becomes x โ Zd paying Kd1ZdKd
0 as atransaction cost.
We also have,
xโZd
xC โฒs โ Kd
1ds Kd0
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If the current cash reserve x satisfies
minzโฅ0Ku
1z Ku0Cz x โ Cx 0,
the optimal strategy would be an upward adjustment.
Calling
Zuarg min0โคzKu
1z Ku0Cz x.
the cash reserve after the adjustment becomes x Zu paying Ku1ZuKu
0 as atransaction cost.
We also have,
x
xZu
C โฒs Ku1 โKu
0
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Otherwise, if the current cash reserve x satisfies
LCx 0,
where
LCx
Infinitesimal Generator of the Compound-Poisson Process with drift
mC โฒx โ1 2Cx 1 0
Cx โ dF1 2 0
Cx dF2
Discounted Term
โCx
Opportunity Cost Termax
then nothing should be done (non-intervention region).
So: the HJB equation suggests the optimal strategy.
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Important Results:
Cx is the largest viscosity solution satisfying the lineargrowth condition (characterization result).
If there is a cost function of an admissible strategy Cxthat is a viscosity solution of the HJB equation, then is theoptimal strategy and Cx Cx. (Verification Result).
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What we expect from the structure of the optimal strategy?
One of the simplest candidates for optimal strategies arethe so-called impulse band strategies (IBS) that arecharacterized by:โ Two trigger levels Sd and Su .โ Two targets levels sd and su, where Sd sd โฅ su Su.
Whenever the cash level is greater than Sd it isinstantaneously decreased to sd and whenever the cashlevel is less than Su the cash amount is instantaneouslyincreased to su.
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๐๐ข=0
๐ ๐ข
๐ ๐
๐๐
Upward Random Jump
Controlled Downward Adjustment ๐1๐
Downward Random Jump
Controlled Upward Adjustment ๐1
๐ข
Controlled Upward Adjustment ๐2๐ข
Upward Random Jump Trigger
Target
Target
Trigger
Simulated Trajectory under an Impulse Band Strategy (๐๐, ๐ ๐, ๐ ๐ข, ๐๐ข)
x
Results about the optimal strategy The optimal strategy exists and it depends only on the current cashflow. There is always a unique upward trigger Su 0 and target su 0. Su is
always zero because there is a positive opportunity cost of holding cashand because the required minimum level is zero.
If Kd1โฅ a/: there is no downward triggers; it is never optimal to make a
downward adjustment, too expensive!. If Kd
1 a/ there are (finite) downward targets sdi and triggers Sd
i . Thedistance between consecutive downward targets and triggers is never lessthan Kd
0/a/ โ Kd1.
If Kd1 0 there is a unique downward target sd (that corresponds to the
point that the minimum of Cx is attained). This implies a uniquedownward trigger? NO!, we will see an example.
We are thinking conditions under which the optimal strategy is an impulse bandstrategies (IBS).
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Numerical Example with an IBS optimal strategy
Parameters of the example:* Downward and upward jumps with exponential distribution functions:
F1x 1 โ eโ0.05x, F2x 1 โ eโ0.02x.* Discount factor: 0.06.* drift: m โ365.* Poisson intensity: 1 30,2 10.* a 0.05,Ku
1 0.2, Kd1 0.3, Ku
0 Kd0 1 .
We have that:โ The optimal strategy is an impulse band strategies (IBS) with
Su 0, su 372.3, sd 5551.7,Sd 6172.4
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0 2000 4000 6000
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
No action Upward adjustment
Downward adjustment Target ๐ ๐ข Target ๐ ๐
C(x)
Trigger ๐๐ Trigger ๐๐ข = 0
Target ๐ ๐ข
(๐ถโฒ ๐ + ๐พ1๐ข๐ ๐ข0
)=-๐พ0๐ข
(๐ถโฒ ๐ โ ๐พ1๐๐๐๐ ๐
)=๐พ0๐
Target ๐ ๐
-๐พ1๐ข
๐พ1๐
Cโ(x)
Jump of Cยด at triggers
Jump of Cยด at triggers
Numerical Example with two downward triggersParameters of the example:* Downward jumps with distribution function F1x Ixโฅ1 and exponential
distribution for the upward jumps F2x 1 โ eโx.* Discount factor: 0.1.* drift: m โ1.* Poisson intensity: 1 10,2 1/100.* a 20 ,Ku
1 Kd1 0 (no proportional cost for cash adjustment), Ku
0 Kd0 1.
In this case the Optimal Strategy is not IBS! It has a unique "upward" trigger Su 0, and a unique targetsu 0.2 (this is always the case). It has a unique downward target sd 0.2 (that is the minimum of
Cx because the proportional cost is zero) BUT two downward triggersSd
1 1.0 and Sd2 1.3
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0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
142.4
142.6
142.8
143.0
143.2
C(x)
TARGET: ๐ ๐=๐ ๐ข
No Action No Action Upward Adj.
Down. Adj. Downward Adjustment
๐ป๐๐๐๐. ๐บ๐๐ ๐ป๐๐๐๐. ๐บ๐๐
Integral=0
Integral=๐พ0๐
Integral=-๐พ0๐ข
Cโ(x)
TARGET
Jump of Cยด at upward trigger
Jumps of Cยด at triggers
Oksendal and Sulem . Applied Stochastic Control of Jump Diffusion.Springer: 2004 (first edition) and 2011 (second edition).
Baumol (1952). The transactions demand for cash: an inventory theoreticmodel. Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Bar-Ilan, Perry and Stadje (2004). A generalized impulse control model ofcash management. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control.
Benkherouf and Bensoussan (2009) .Optimality of an (s; S) policy withcompound Poisson and diffusion demands: a quasi-variational inequalitiesapproach. SIAM J. Control Optim.
Bayraktar, Emmerling and Menaldi (2013). On the Impulse Control ofJump Diffusions. SIAM J. Control Optim.
Alvarez and Lippi (2013). The demand of liquid assets with uncertainlumpy expenditures. Journal of Monetary Economics.
Yamazaki (2016). Inventory Control For Spectrally Positive Levy Demandprocesses .To be published in Mathematics of Operations Research.
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MERCI BEAUCOUP!
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A function u : J โ R is a viscosity subsolution at x โ J if anycontinuously differentiable function : J โ R withx ux and such that u โ reaches the maximum at xsatisfies
min Lx, min0โคwโคx
Kd1w Kd
0ux โ wโux,minzโฅ0Ku
1z Ku0uz x โ ux โค 0,
u
y
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A function u : J โ R is a viscosity supersolution at x โ J ifany continuously differentiable function : J โ R withx ux and such that u โ reaches the minimum at xsatisfies
min Lx, min0โคwโคx
Kd1w Kd
0ux โ wโux,minzโฅ0Ku
1z Ku0uz x โ ux โฅ 0,
u
j
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If a function u : J โ R is both a subsolution and asupersolution at x โ J it is called a viscosity solution at x
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