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Optical Communications Market Forecast • April 2016
Month 2015
Optical Communications Market Forecast DEMAND FOR OPTICS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN 2016-2021, DESPITE LOWER GROWTH IN INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
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List of Figures and Tables ......................................................................................................................... 3 Abstract .................................................................................................................................................... 4
Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 5 Demand for optics remains strong. .......................................................................................................... 5 FTTx and Wireless segments will remain prone to fluctuations. .............................................................. 6 Market growth hinges on the adoption of next generation technologies. ............................................... 7 Changes in the forecast ............................................................................................................................ 8 Wild cards and tripwires ......................................................................................................................... 10
Section 1a: Carrier Revenue, Capex Overview ..................................................................................... 11 Revenue and capex in 2015 impacted by the strong dollar .................................................................... 11 2016 capex forecast at $178 billion, a decline of 7% year-‐on-‐year ........................................................ 14 Chinese operators enter a new era of modest revenue growth and capex cuts .................................... 15 Mergers and acquisitions ....................................................................................................................... 16 5G radio set for a staggered rollout ....................................................................................................... 17 Data centers as towers: Are data centers falling out of favor for the telcos? ........................................ 17 BT’s strategy for growing core capacity ................................................................................................. 18 Telcos put collaboration above rivalry in response to their newest rivals .............................................. 19
Section 1b: Service Provider Highlights ............................................................................................... 20 AT&T ....................................................................................................................................................... 20 BT Group ................................................................................................................................................. 22 China Mobile .......................................................................................................................................... 24 China Telecom ........................................................................................................................................ 25 China Unicom ......................................................................................................................................... 26 Comcast .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Deutsche Telekom .................................................................................................................................. 28 Orange .................................................................................................................................................... 29 KDDI ........................................................................................................................................................ 31 NTT ......................................................................................................................................................... 32 Softbank ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Telecom Italia ......................................................................................................................................... 34 Telefonica ............................................................................................................................................... 35 Verizon ................................................................................................................................................... 36 Vodafone ................................................................................................................................................ 38
Section 2a: Internet Infrastructure Drivers ......................................................................................... 39 Internet infrastructure spending reached a new high in 2015 ............................................................... 39 Five companies dominated Internet infrastructure spending in 2015 .................................................... 40 Cloud services revenue doubled in 2015 ................................................................................................. 41 Internet companies’ cash hoards swell to $365 billion in 2015 .............................................................. 41
Section 2b: Internet Company Highlights ............................................................................................ 42 Alibaba ................................................................................................................................................... 42 Alphabet (formerly Google) .................................................................................................................... 42 Amazon .................................................................................................................................................. 42
Optical Communications Market Forecast – April 2016
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Apple ...................................................................................................................................................... 43 Baidu ...................................................................................................................................................... 43 eBay ........................................................................................................................................................ 43 Facebook ................................................................................................................................................ 44 LinkedIn .................................................................................................................................................. 44 Microsoft ................................................................................................................................................ 44 Oracle ..................................................................................................................................................... 45 PayPal ..................................................................................................................................................... 45 Tencent ................................................................................................................................................... 45 Twitter .................................................................................................................................................... 46 Yahoo ..................................................................................................................................................... 46 Things to watch ...................................................................................................................................... 47
Section 3: Forecast for Optical Components and Modules Used in Telecom Applications .................... 48 CWDM and DWDM Transceivers ............................................................................................................ 50
Core networks continue to roll out higher speeds ............................................................................. 50 Tunable and fixed 10 Gbps transceivers will coexist, at least for now ............................................... 55
SONET/SDH transceivers ........................................................................................................................ 56 SFP+ is replacing XFP for OC-‐192 applications ................................................................................... 57
FTTx Transceivers ................................................................................................................................... 58 Optical modules for wireless infrastructure ........................................................................................... 60
Section 4: Forecast for Optical Transceivers and Interconnects Used in Datacom Applications. ........... 64 Ethernet Transceivers ............................................................................................................................. 65
Hyperscale data centers push adoption of higher-‐speed Ethernet modules ..................................... 66 40GbE ................................................................................................................................................. 67 100GbE ............................................................................................................................................... 68 25GbE, 50GbE, 200GbE and 400GbE now part of our forecast .......................................................... 69
Fibre Channel Transceivers ..................................................................................................................... 69 Fibre Channel slump ending, aided by flash systems ......................................................................... 70
Optical Interconnects ............................................................................................................................. 71
Appendix A: Selected Financial Data ................................................................................................... 73
Optical Communications Market Forecast – April 2016
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List of Figures and Tables Figure S-‐1: Global sales of optical components and modules (Historical data and Forecast) ___________________ 5 Figure S-‐2: Sales of optical transceivers and BOSAs used in FTTx and wireless infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast) ____________________________________________________________________________________ 6 Figure S-‐3a: Sales of 100G DWDM modulators and coherent receivers (Historical Data and Forecast) ___________ 8 Figure S-‐3b: Sales of 100G DWDM transponders (Historical Data and Forecast) ____________________________ 8 Figure S-‐4: Sales of 40GbE optical transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast) ______________________________ 9 Figure S-‐5: Sales of 100GbE Optical Transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast) ___________________________ 10 Table 1-‐1: AT&T’s four main business units ________________________________________________________ 21 Table 1-‐2: BT’s business units following the integration of EE __________________________________________ 23 Figure 2-‐1: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment ____________________________ 39 Figure 2-‐2: Rate of growth in Internet Index company spending on PP&E ________________________________ 39 Figure 2-‐3: Internet Index company spending on property, plant, & equipment ____________________________ 40 Table 2.1: Cloud services revenues reported by major players __________________________________________ 41 Figure 3-‐1: Sales of Telecom Optical Transceivers (Historical and Forecast Data) __________________________ 48 Figure 3-‐2: Sales of Other Telecom Optical Components and Modules (Historical and Forecast Data) __________ 50 Figure 3-‐3: Sales of WDM Transceiver Sales By Data Rate (Historical and Forecast Data) ____________________ 51 Figure 3-‐4: Deployments of 10G, 40G, 100G and 200/400G DWDM ports (Historical and Forecast Data) _______ 52 Figure 3-‐5: Shipments of 100G and 200/400G ports by application (Historical and Forecast Data) _____________ 53 Figure 3-‐6: Shipments of 100G DWDM transponders by type (Historical and Forecast Data) _________________ 54 Figure 3-‐7: 10Gbps DWDM Transceiver Unit Shipments (Historical and Forecast Data) ______________________ 55 Figure 3-‐8: Sales of SONET/SDH Modules by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast) ______________________ 56 Figure 3-‐9: Sales of OC-‐192 Transceivers by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast) _____________________ 57 Figure 3-‐10: Comparison between the number of new FTTH subscribers and annual shipments of ONU ports (Historical Data and Forecast) __________________________________________________________________ 59 Figure 3-‐11: Sales of different types of FTTx transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast) _____________________ 60 Figure 3-‐12: Mobile connections by technology _____________________________________________________ 61 Figure 3-‐13: Shipments of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast) ______ 61 Figure 3-‐14: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical data and Forecast) ___________ 62 Figure 3-‐15: Sales of WDM fronthaul transceivers (Historical data and Forecast) __________________________ 63 Figure 4-‐1: Sales of Datacom Optical Transceivers by Application (Historical Data and Forecast) ______________ 64 Figure 4-‐2: Ethernet Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast) ________________________ 66 Figure 4-‐3: Shipments of 25G and faster Ethernet transceivers (Historical Data and Forecast) ________________ 67 Figure 4-‐4: Shipments of 100 GbE transceivers by reach (Historical Data and Forecast) _____________________ 69 Figure 4-‐5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast) ____________ 71 Figure 4-‐6: Optical Interconnect Sales by Major Categories (Historical data and Forecast) ___________________ 72 Table A-‐1: Revenue and capex of the top 15 telecom service providers __________________________________ 73 Table A-‐2: Revenue, Spending*, and Margins of LightCounting’s Internet Index companies __________________ 74 Table A-‐3: Quarterly financial data for LightCounting’s Internet Index companies __________________________ 76 Table A-‐4: Additional quarterly financial data for LightCounting’s Internet Index companies _________________ 77
Optical Communications Market Forecast – April 2016
©Copyright 2016 by LightCounting www.LightCounting.com Page 4
Abstract
This report provides a detailed market demand forecast through 2021 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high-‐performance computing (HPC) applications.
Key inputs include an analysis of the business and infrastructure spending of the top 15 service providers and leading Internet companies, and sales data from 2010 to 2015 for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 20 vendors that shared their confidential sales information with LightCounting. The forecast is based on LightCounting’s forecast model which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and the projected deployments of LTE and FTTx systems for broadband access.
LightCounting is also grateful to many industry experts for their critical review of the forecast projections.