opportunity day : 3q17 & 9m17...
TRANSCRIPT
IRPC Public Company Limited
Opportunity Day : 3Q17 & 9M17 Result
21 November 2017
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight
Operation & Financial Performance
Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
2
Financial Highlight: 3Q17 & 9M17 PerformanceHigher spread & net stock gain resulted in good performance
41,622 49,930 52,355
120,343 139,151 QoQ 5%
YoY 26%
Overview of Business
Net Sales(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)
Unit: $/bbl
Net Income
Unit: MB
Unit: MB
YoY 149%
QoQ 164%
EBITDA
Unit: MB
3,098 3,706 6,635
12,957 13,890
YoY 114% QoQ 79%
2Q17
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
Net Sales(net excise tax)
EBITDA
Net income
3
YoY 16%
YoY 7%
YoY 15%
3Q17
42%
50%
8%
68%
31%
1%
52,355MB
1,307 1,228
3,248
8,027 6,841
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
6,635MB
43 50 5139
51
Crude run KBD 176 194 201 181 170
36%
59%
5%
Planned TA in 1Q17
-10%
93%
17%
23%
61%
16%
70%
29%
1%
49,930MB
3,706MB
1,228MB
3,248MB
Market GIM ($/bbl) 12.5 13.6 15.1 13.2 14.6
Acct. GIM ($/bbl) 11.4 11.6 16.1 12.7 14.9
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight
Operation & Financial Performance
Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
4
+ Higher ULG95 price impacted from Hurricane Harvey+ lower inventory in Singapore after export to Mexico+ Strong demand from ME and India+ Demand from Indonesia and Vietnam
5
Petroleum SpreadBetter Refinery Spread from strong demand and lower supply by Hurricane impact
500SN –FO 180 3.5%S Spread
150 BS – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
$/BBL
$/BBL
$/BBL
Lube Base SpreadRefinery Spread
Gas oil - Dubai
ULG 95 - Dubai
HSFO - Dubai
18.814.5 11.6 14.6 14.8 14.2 16.1
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
(5.2)(8.7)
(4.3) (1.7) (3.1) (1.8) (1.4)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
9.6 10.5 11.0 12.0 11.8 11.4 13.9
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
(7)(48) (61) (80)
(13) (38) (28)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
844 780 725 602 635 658 579
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
442 418 443 367 451 556 528
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
6.1 0.7
(1.9)
0.2 1.1
(1.3) (0.2)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
QoQ 85% Naphtha - Dubai + Higher Cracker plant’s utilization rate
QoQ 13%
QoQ 22%
QoQ 12%
QoQ 22% QoQ 26%
QoQ 5%
+ Tight supply impacted from Hurricane+ High demand from Sri Lanka
+ Lower supply from Europe, Persian Gulf and export from Russia+ Increasing demand from ME for power generation
- Plant resumed operation after main. SD in Asia- Lower demand during Monsoon season
+ Tight supply from refineries’ main. SD in Singapore
- Plant resumed operation after main. SD in Asia- Lower demand during Monsoon season
1.8 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 3.7
1.7
7.6 7.6 7.1 7.6
4.7 7.8 8.6
22.7
21.1
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
0.8
1.7 1.7
4.7
4.2
0.6 0.5 0.7
0.8
0.6
1.0 0.6
1.7
2.2
0.3 0.1 - 0.1
0.0
0.1 0.1
0.3
0.3
1.0 0.8
0.7 0.9
0.5
0.8 0.9
2.5
2.2
0.8 0.9
0.8 0.9
0.5
0.9 0.9
2.5
2.3
0.9 1.2
0.4
1.0 1.0
0.9
2.6
13.6 13.1 12.4 13.6
8.1
14.1 14.2
38.9 36.6
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
RDCC
Lube
Asphalt
LPG + Other
Naphtha
Gasoline
Diesel
Fuel
Petroleum ProductionHigher crude run after ADU II internal column retrofit enhance capacity
187 182 176 188 116 194 201 181 170 Crude Run (KBD)
87% 85% 82% 87% 53% 90% 93% 84% 79% % U-Rate
TA in 1Q17TA
Unit : Mbbl
Remark: Excluding internal use quantity
Middle East, 66%
Far East, 19%
Domestic, 6%
Others, 9%
Source of Crude
3Q17: 93% Utilization Rate
QoQ: 3% increase from ADU II capacity improvement
YoY : 11% increase from higher U-Rate of ADU II & RDCC units
9M17: 79% Utilization Rate
5% decrease according to Planned Turnaround in 1Q17
6
Petroleum Production
20,981 23,354 24,221 29,792 21,405 30,314 31,053 68,556 82,772 Refinery
24,966 27,088 27,589 33,509 24,344 34,754 35,380 79,643 94,478 Petroleum
3,985 3,734 3,368 3,717 2,939 4,440 4,327 11,087 11,706 Lube Base
3.2
1.4 2.0
4.0
2.4 2.1
3.8
2.2 2.8
2.8
2.6 2.1
1.4
2.4 2.5
2.1
2.5 2.3
6.0
4.0 4.1
5.4 4.8 4.6
5.9
4.7 5.1
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
LubeBase
Refinery
Market GRMSales Volume & Revenue
17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 18.5 49.7 46.5Crude intake
M.bbl
Unit : $/bbl
Sales Distribution
Local59%
Export41%
9M17
Top 5 Export Destination in 3Q17 : Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Japan
3Q17 : Petroleum revenue 2% increase QoQ: 2% volume increase vs stable price 28% increase YoY : 11% volume & 17% price increase
3Q17 Market GRM was $5.9/bbl: $1.3/bbl increase QoQ due to higher Refinery’s spread $1.8/bbl increase YoY from higher Diesel & FO spreadLocal
54%
Export46%
YoY 11%
QoQ 2%
YoY 28%
QoQ 2%
Sales volume (M.bbl)
Revenue (MB)
7
YoY 19%
Petroleum Group : Sales & Gross Refinery Margin (GRM)Refinery products spread brought better market GRM
3Q17
9M17 : Petroleum revenue 19% increase YoY: 23% price increase vs 4% volume decrease
9M17 Market GRM was $5.1/bbl: $0.4/bbl increase YoY due to higher Diesel & FO spread
TA in 1Q17TA
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
YoY 4%
13.2 12.1 12.9 13.9 9.0
14.1 14.3
38.1 37.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7
1.1
1.7 1.8
5.5 4.6
15.2 13.9 14.5 15.6 10.1
15.8 16.1
43.6 42.0
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Lube Base
Refinery
224 184 175 192 200
170 159
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
668 688 668 529 591 544 622
239 188 177 232 171 286 201
907 876 845 761 762 830 823
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON Ethylene-NP HDPE-Ethylene
254 262 267 215 192 202 182
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
809 806 810 8421,029
878 977
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
304 308 339 272 435 296 323
295 376 360 366 228 365 356
600 684 699 638 663 661 679
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON Propylene-NP PP-Propylene
8
Petrochemical SpreadShortage supply support Styrenics spread, lower Aromatics spread from soften demand
HDPE-Ethylene –Naphtha Spread PP-Propylene –Naphtha Spread
MX – Naphtha SpreadToluene – Naphtha Spread
PS –Naphtha SpreadABS –Naphtha Spread
Ole
fin
sS
tyre
nic
sA
rom
ati
cs
854 897 984 1,092 1,382
1,226 1,377
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
QoQ 1%
QoQ 3%
QoQ 6%
QoQ 11% QoQ 12%
QoQ 10%
- RM prices moved up following crude oil price
- Feedstock prices increased following crude oil price
- Soften demand
+Product prices rose following crude oil price
+Higher demand to support the production for upcoming festivals
- Lower Demand- Higher supply from plants
resumed operation after SD
+Higher demand to support manufacturing season
+Shortage of RM caused by Hurricane
+ Increasing Demand+ Tight supply due to impacted from
Hurricane
101 92 97 96 48
95 101
290 244
3 1 1 4
3
2 3
5
8
81 75 73 82
62
85 81
228 228
184 168 170 182
113
182 184
523 480
49 52 44 29 10 53 58 146 121
134 139 137 126 99 140 162
410 401
183 191 181 154
109
193 220
555 522
Petrochemical Group : ProductionHigher U-Rate after plant efficiency improvement program
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
94% 95% 88% 84% 54% 95% 97% 92% 82% % U-Rate
88% 91% 89% 82% 67% 93% 98% 89% 86% Polyolefins
99% 99% 87% 85% 42% 96% 97% 95% 78% Olefins
Styrenics
Aromatics
Aromatics & StyrenicsOlefins
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
98% 89% 80% 93% 61% 97% 104% 89% 87% % U-Rate
90% 86% 77% 80% 71% 95% 92% 84% 86% Polystyrenics
97% 78% 49% 105% 69% 107% 113% 75% 96% Styrenics
106% 98% 100% 98% 47% 94% 110% 101% 84% Aromatics
Polystyrenics
Olefins
Polyolefins
Unit : KMT Unit : KMT
Remark : - Utilization rate calculated based on the main products- volume excluded internal use
3Q17: 97% Olefins U-Rate at 220 KMT: PPE started up in Sept. 2017 with 160 KTA capacity
9M17: 82% Olefins U-Rate as planned TA in 1Q17
9
UHV COD
3Q17: 104% Aromatics & Styrenics U-Rate at 184 KTA owing to plant efficiency improvement
9M17 : YoY slightly lower U-rate given with planned TA in 1Q17
182 152 163 180 114 160 185 497 459 196 212 226 224
169 237 270
633 676
378 364 389 404 283
397 455
1,130 1,135
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins & Polyolefins
Petrochemical Group : Sales & Product to Feed (PTF)Higher sales volume and better Styrenics spread
1.8 2.4 1.5
2.4 4.0
2.9 2.9 1.9
3.2
4.9
5.9 5.7 3.8
5.7
5.1 5.3 5.5
5.3
6.7
8.3 7.2
6.2
9.7
8.0 8.2 7.4
8.5
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Unit : $/bbl
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins & Polyolefins
Crude intake (M.bbl)
Sales Volume and Revenue
17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 18.5 49.7 46.5
Sales Distribution
Local51%
Export49%
3Q17
Top 5 Export Destination in 3Q17: Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Australia, Vietnam
Local56%
Export44%
3Q17 : Petrochemical revenue 12% QoQ: 15% volume increase vs 3% price decrease 22% YoY: 17% volume increase & 5% price increase
3Q17 Market PTF was $8.2/bbl $0.2/bbl QoQ mainly from Styrenics spread $1.0/bbl YoY mainly from better Styrenics spread
YoY 17%QoQ 15%
YoY 22%QoQ 12%
Sales volume (KMT)
Revenue (MB)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
10
YoY 0.4%
YoY 11%
Market PTF
9M17
9M17 : Petrochemical revenue 11% increase YoY: 11% price increase vs stable volume
9M17 Market PTF was $8.5/bbl $1.1/bbl increase YoY mainly from Styrenics spread
12,471 12,573 13,292 13,780 11,951 14,472 16,251 38,334 42,674Petrochem
6,781 7,497 8,058 7,445 6,798 8,361 9,543 22,335 24,702 Olefins
5,690 5,076 5,234 6,335 5,153 6,111 6,708 15,999 17,972Aro& Styrenics
3,625 2,327 2,323 3,341 1,748 2,760 3,662 8,276 8,171
4,103 4,857 4,091 3,818 3,561
4,864 5,107
13,051 13,531
595 685 665 603 453
616 562
1,944 1,631
8,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762
8,240 9,331
23,271 23,333 GRM PTF Power & Utility
13.7 13.4 12.5 12.6 15.7 13.6 15.1 13.2 14.6
(1.2)
3.8 0.1 2.4
3.4
(1.2)
1.8 0.9 1.0
(1.5) (1.4) (1.2)(1.9)
(0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (1.4) (0.8)
11.015.8
11.413.1 18.3
11.6 16.1
12.7 14.9
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)Better spread and stock gain resulted in higher Accounting GIM
Market GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Accounting GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Unit: MB
8,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762 8,240 9,331
23,271 23,333
(712)
2,242 44 1,471 1,275
(712)
1,098
1,574 1,661
(920) (821) (686) (1,194) (300) (466) (455) (2,427) (1,221)
6,691 9,290
6,437 8,039 6,737 7,062 9,974
22,418 23,773 Market GIM Stk G/(L) & LCM Hedging
11
3.2 1.4 2.0
4.0 2.4 2.1
3.9 2.2 2.8
2.8
2.6 2.1 1.5
2.4 2.5 2.1
2.5 2.3
6.0 4.0 4.1
5.4 4.8 4.6 5.9
4.7 5.1
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Refinery Lube Base
4.9 5.9 5.7 3.8 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.3
1.8 2.4 1.5
2.4 4.0 2.9 2.9 1.9 3.2
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2
9.7 8.0 8.2 7.4 8.5
Olefins Aromatics&Styrenics
Market GIM by business
Unit: $/bblPetrochemical
Petroleum
Unit: MB
6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.7 5.1
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 8.2 7.4 8.5
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2
1.0 0.9
1.1 1.0
13.7 13.4 12.5 12.6
15.7 13.6 15.1 13.2 14.6
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Accounting GIM
3Q17 Acct GIM was $16.1/bbl vs 2Q17 of $11.6/bbl; higher Market GIM from spread and stock gain in 3Q17
9M17 Acct GIM was $14.9/bbl vs 9M16 of $12.7/bbl; higher Market GIM and lower hedging loss
Market GIM
3Q17 Market GIM was $15.1/bbl, higher by $1.5/bbl mainly from higher Refinery & Styrenics spread
9M17 Market GIM was $14.6/bbl, higher $1.4/bbl from higher Refinery & Styrenics spread
12
Financial Performance
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 QoQ YoY 9M16 9M17
Net Sales 41,622 49,930 52,355 5% 26% 120,343 139,151 16%
Market GIM 7,079 8,240 9,331 13% 32% 23,271 23,333 0%
Stock Gain/(Loss) 40 (706) 1,098 255% 2645% 1,286 1,662 29%
LCM 4 (6) (0) 92% (111)% 288 (1) (100)%
Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) (686) (466) (455) 2% 34% (2,427) (1,221) 50%
Net Stock Gain/(Loss) (642) (1,178) 643 155% 200% (853) 440 152%
Accounting GIM 6,437 7,062 9,974 41% 55% 22,418 23,773 6%
OPEX + Selling Exp. (3,666) (3,786) (3,715) 2% (1)% (10,411) (11,003) (6)%
Other Incomes 328 429 376 (12)% 15% 951 1,120 18%
EBITDA 3,098 3,706 6,635 79% 114% 12,957 13,890 7%
Cost of Finance (471) (537) (710) (32)% (51)% (890) (1,789) (101)%
FX Gain/(Loss) 181 52 90 73% (50)% 543 677 25%
Impairment Gain/(Loss) - 2 - (100)% - - 238 -
Investment Gain/(Loss) 60 117 109 (7)% 82% 82 322 293%
Other Expenses (40) (5) - 100% 100% (66) (9) 86%
Income Tax 189 (191) (846) (343)% (548)% (121) (1,445) (1094)%
Net Profit 1,307 1,228 3,248 164% 149% 8,027 6,841 (15)%
%
Change
Unit: MB
56,008 58,617 54,895
8,674 10,476
10,503
64,682 69,093 65,398
2,020 2,181 3,759
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17
L/T Debt S/T Debt Cash
0.79 0.84 0.74
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 13
Debt PortfolioLower debt after most of repayment be done in 9M17
ST Loan15%
LT Loan (USD)
7%
LT Loan (THB)52%
Bond (THB)26%
Debt StructureDebt Profile
Float 77 THB 70
Fixed 23 USD 30
Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
Net Debt = 61,639 MB Ex. Rate = 33.53 Baht/$
Financial Ratios
0.73 0.89 0.85
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
Unit : MB
Net Debt
Maturity of Long-term Debt
Unit : MB
MB
ST Loan THB 10,503
LT Loan USD 125 4,181
LT Loan THB 35,467
Bond THB 15,247
Total 125 65,398
Debt Currency
62,662 61,63966,912
498 2,536 3,732
6,205
22,496
-
3,181 667
333
-
4,999 3,362 -
6,886
498
10,715
7,761 6,539
29,383
4Q17 2018 2019 2020 >2020
THB Bond
USD Loan
THB Loan
Remark: Long-term debt as at 30 Sep 2017
14
Statement of Financial Position & RatioHigher profitability Ratios derived from good performance
121,361 128,296
11,169 9,828
37,806 40,637
2,042
3,759
81,005 83,392
2,203 2,296
56,445 54,895
32,725 41,937
Unit: MB
PP&E
Other Non-C/A
Cash
172,378
Other CurrentLiabilities
L/T Liabilities(incl. due within 1 yr)
Shareholders’Equity
Sept. 30, 2017
182,520
Dec. 31, 2016
Assets : Cash 1,717 MB AR 3,160 MB
Higher sales volume PP&E 5,593 MB Increase mainly from PPE & PPC Projects
Liabilities & Equity AP 5,227 MB Higher crude oil inventories
IBD 2,811 MB Higher mainly from ST loan of 4,362 MB Slightly lower of long-term loan (incl.
current portion of 1,551 MB (drawdown LT loan of 18,000 MB and repaid LT loans & bonds of 18,822 MB)
Equity 2,387 MB Increase mainly from NI of 6,841 MB Decrease from dividend payment of 4,722
MB (Bt 0.23 per share)
Other C/A
As of ending 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 As of ending 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17
EBITDA Margin (%) 6.78 6.79 11.7 Current Ratio (time) 0.73 0.89 0.85
Net Profit Margin (%) 2.86 2.25 5.73 Quick Ratio (time) 0.23 0.31 0.32
Earnings per share (Baht/share) 0.06 0.06 0.16
Return on Equity (%) 13.79 8.94 11.11 Net Debt to Equity (time) 0.79 0.84 0.74
RATIOS
Financial Policy Ratio
Profitability Ratios Liquidity Ratios
Other Non-CurrentLiabilities
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight
Operation & Financial Performance
Project Update1
Agenda
Industry Outlook
15
23%8% 11%
4% 4%
14%
10%
15%
11% 11%
40%
38%
45%
47% 48%
5%
10%
8%
9% 10%
16%
21%
16%19% 18%
2%
5%3%
3% 3%6%1%
6% 6%2% 0.8%
IRPC IRPC+UHV IRPC2015A
IRPC2017F
IRPC2018F
Ethylene
Propylene
LPG
Naphtha
Gasoline
Diesel/JetFuelLube Oil
Fuel Oil
Designed Yield
0.8%
Project Update: UHV project
IRPC’s Production Yield
Upstream project for Hygiene & Value-added Products
Objective : Upgrade low value to high valued-added products
Investment : $ 1.1 bn
COD : Jul. 2016
Benefit : GIM 1.5-2.0 $/ bblAssumption : Spread propylene to FO ~ 500-600$/bbl
RDCC unit Feed Cut-in
@ Jun 16 COD @ Jul 16
HYVAHL unit Feed Cut-in
HS-ATB @ Jul 16 COD @ Jul 16
Performance Guarantee Test RDCC run 100%
@ Oct 2016
Plant Acceptance
(PAC)
Jan 2017
43%
84%95%
2016A 2017F 2018F
Upgrade to High Valued-Added products
UHV to raise flexibility and improve product yield and earnings
131
123
163
367
220
326
74
HS-ATB
LPG
Ethylene
HYVAHL
Propylene
Naphtha
FO/FG
Middle Distillates
RDCC
C4 Raffinate III
Internal use & Loss
Unit : KTA
16%
5%
23%
9%
9%
26%
12%
Flow Diagram
LS-ATB
UHV
Designed Yield
16
Value added on UHV project
Gasoline Maximization Project UHV Catalyst Cooler in RDCC plant
Objectives Flexibility of crude selection Fully optimized UHV operation Utility cost from cracking heavy crude molecule
CAPEX : ~ 1,320 MBIRR : ~ 35%COD : ~ 1Q19Benefit : GIM 0.3$/bbl
Objectives To capture domestic market gasoline deficit Increase UHV benefit Maximize Gasoline Yield Reduce Thailand import
CAPEX : 1,100 MBIRR : ~ 80%COD : by end 2017Benefit : GIM 0.4$/bbl
Demin
To improve margin with small CAPEX
RDCC Plant
ERU
PRU Unit
PNU Unit
Prime G Unit
Ne
w c
olu
mn
GasolineBlending Pool
~ 25 M.Litres/month
C2’s
C3’s
C4’s
Naphtha
Modification
Modification
Poly-gasoline (C8’s)20 t/hr. to gasoline pool
Heavy Oligomerate (C12+’s)5 t/hr. to RDCC
HCN (benzene <0.5 volume%) 27 t/h Gasoline pool
Benzene rich cut 8 t/h
LCN
ERU – Ethylene Recovery Unit PRU – Propane-Propylene Splitting Unit PNU – Naphtha Oligomer Unit Prime G – Naphtha Hydro-treating Unit
17
Project Update: PPE & PPC
18
MC : Aug 17COD : Sep 17
PPCPPE
MC : Sep 17COD Plan : End Nov 17
PP Expansion Project (PPE) Licensor : Novolen Capacity : 160 KTA PMC : Foster Wheeler, EPC : Sinopec
PP Compound & Specialties (PPC) Licensor : Japan Polypropylene Corp. (JPP) Capacity : 140 KTA PMC : Foster Wheeler , EPC : Sinopec
Operation37%
Supply Chain19%
Commercial27%
Procurement3%
Corporate14%
2017Target
7,003 MB
Efficiency Improvement from Everest ProjectTo reach $300 mn benefits from Everest with CAPEX ≤10% on benefit : Key Driver to reach Top Quartile
19
Height
29,029 ft.
Basecamp
(17,500’)
Camp l
(19,500’)
Camp ll
(21,000’)
Camp lll
(23,500’)
Camp lV
(26,300’)
2020
2016
2017
2018
2019ROIC 14%
1st Quartile ROIC in
Petroleum &
Petrochemical Industry
Strong Performance
Healthy Organization
(OHI)
+
ROIC 8%
Getting to the top and staying there
2,560
177
281
7,003Total
Y2017 (Target)
1,348
716
9M17 Actual
1,091
778
277
165
2,311
Y2016 Actual
1,771
682
214
122
4,414
166
1,458
Procurement Area
Commercial Area
Operations Area
Corporate Area: Non HR$
Integrated Supply Chain
Corporate Area : HR
$100m $200m $300m
Optimize crude selection Adjusting production unit
parameter
Maximize energy efficiency Reduce loss in production Improve maintenance
efficiency Reduce production unit
downtime
Budget management Develop human capabilities
Reduce cost thru E-Procurement
Maximize commercial value; go to the new market 19
1,921
20
Everest Project Highlight : 3Q17 & 9M17 Performance
Procurement Area
Commercial Area
Operations Area
Corporate Area - Non HR
• Maximize energy efficiency and reduce loss in production units
• Improve efficiency and effectiveness of maintenance
• Reduce production unit downtime and minimize operating days lost
• Maximize commercial value generation from refined petroleum and petrochemical products
• Asset Port and Tank management
• Optimize timing, duration and cost of turnaround
• Spend optimization with key expenditure categories
• Optimize small CAPEX spend for highest value expenditures
• Budget management
• Optimize planning and policies to ensure continued productivity
enhancement
2,560
1,921
177
281
1,771
682
214
122
7,0034,414Total
Y2017 (Target)9M17 Actual
Unit: MB of EBIT
$
Integrated Supply Chain• Optimize crude selection, product blending and hydrocarbon stock
• Enhance throughput & yield by adjusting production unit parameter
Corporate Area - HR
• Develop capabilities to sustain both performance and health
• Improve organizational health practices for top quartile outcomes
1,348
716166
1,459
Key Area
930
287
115
42
2,059
3Q17 Actual
43
642
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Sales PlanIRPC A & L Company LimitedMarketing ABS and ABS Color Compound Products for the automotive industry, electronics, and office equipment
Shareholding Structure
• IRPC ….……………… 60%• Nippon A&L(NAL) …. 37%• Sumithai ……………. 3%
Joint Venture
IRPC Polyol Company Limited Production and marketing for Polyurethane Products
Shareholding Structure
• IRPC ….…………………………………… 75%• PCC Rokita SA (Poland) ………………. 25%
Sales Plan
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
High-value product
Standard product
IRPC Clean Power Company LimitedTo produce electricity and steam for EGAT’s SPP contract and UHV projectThe Company was incorporated on June 20, 2013
Shareholding Structure
• GPSC Plc….………… 51%• IRPC ……..…………. 49%
CAPEX : ~13,500 MBIRR : ~11%
Net Profit PlanMB
Total• Electricity : 240 MW• Steam : 300 T/h
Phase 1 COD: Nov 2015• Electricity : 45 MW• Steam : 170 T/h
Phase 2 COD: Nov 2017
Capacity
Enter into new geographic markets and gain new technological knowledge
Ton
Ton
21
Construction period
Phase I
Phase I & II
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight
Operation & Financial Performance
Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
22
Crude Oil Supply & Outlook
Target Production reached target Production did not reach target
Non-OPEC reach compliance since Aug. 2017
23
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
NorddeutscheLandesbank
Market RiskAdvisory
Wells Fargo
BMI Reserch
DeutscheBank
Bank of NovaScotia
$53-57$54-57
$56-65
Source: Bloomberg Note: Report Sept. - early
Nov. 2017
$/bbl
Brent
Crude Oil Price ForecastWorld oil production and consumption balance
Leaded by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Angola
Tight Supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers to extend supply cut and the steady reduction of excess U.S supply
OPEC reach its target of production cut by 1.13 MBD (97%) OPEC : 97% compliance in Sept. 2017
Dubai priceBase Case
$52-57
+ High potential of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to extend supply cut extension beyond March 2018
+ Amid expectation of falling global oil inventories from growing oil demand prospects has also supported prices
Gasoline cracks remain structurally strong amid significant risk from higher supply after refineries increase run rates during winter demand
Middle distillate cracks continue to be under downwards pressure due to surplus from China and India amid weaker demand in Industry sector
Diesel cracks were boosted by pre-stocking demand ahead of winter
Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Outlook
Driving Determinants
24
KeyProducts
Price(3Q17)
Spread3Q17
4Q17 1Q18
Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl) Outlook Outlook
Dubai 50.5
ULG95 66.6 16.1
GAS OIL0.05%S
64.4 13.9
FO 49.1 (1.4)
Lube Base Oil ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook
500 SN 840 528
150 BS 891 579
+ Demand pick up after rainy season - Ample supply in China as local refineries increase capacities Slow demand before Chinese new year but to rebound after it
ended
- Weak demand from winter in North East Asia- Slow demand before Chinese new year
+ Fuel oil cracks stay strong as global supply reduced especially from FSU
+ Winter demand support FO price
Short-Term Petrochemical Products Outlook
25
KeyProducts
Price(3Q17)
Spread(3Q17)
4Q17 1Q18
Olefins ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook
Ethylene 1,090 622
Propylene 791 323
HDPE 1,291 823
PP 1,147 679
Styrenics ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook
PS 1,445 977
ABS 1,845 1,377
Driving Determinants
Styrenics to be soften in 4Q17 but stronger in 1Q18- Soften demand before year end as producers tends to lean
their inventories+ Producers to increase their stock again after year end
PE: Additional capacity from North American with cost advantaged feedstock from shale gas is potentially delayed
PP: + China market remains active - Additional China supply of 950 KTA (Zhongtian Hechuang and
Shenhua) will be delayed, 1Q18 at the earliest+ ASEAN, Indonesia and Vietnam, still short of supply
Olefins market be affirmed+ Less export from SEA+ Tighten market during 4Q17, schedule turnaround in Asia
Capacity Before After
Propylene (UHV)
412 KTA
732 KTA
2010
2014
Margin Improvement
• Operational Excellence • Commercial Excellence • Procurement & HR
Excellence
Benefit +135 MUSD
INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP
SYNERGY
PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE
INNOVATION
RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOCIETY
INTEGRITY & ETHICS
TRUST & RESPECT
Other Projects Completion
• Operational Efficiency Improvement
• Asset Utilization Enhancement• Product and Service Improvement• Capacity and Products Expansion
Incremental Margin and Organization Health• Capability Building• Owner mindset & Performance
Orientation• Cultural Changes
Fully Integrated PP
E4E
Everest forever
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020
BIG
Revenue Growth of 5%
EBITDA Growth of 10%
1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum
and Petrochemical Industry
STRONG LONG
Member of DJSI Emerging
Markets Universe
Capacity Before After
PP (PPE&PPC)
475 KTA
775 KTA
2017
2016
26
Beyond Everest
Power of Growth Power of People
Power of Digital
Capture benefits and growth after investment to reach 1st Quartile ROIC
26
• CHP I:• Electricity +220MW• Steam +420T/hr
• PRP +100KTA of Propylene• TDAE +28KTA, 150BS +25KTA• Lube Blending +60m.Litres./year• EBSM +60KTA, ABS/SAN +60KTA
IRPC Key Highlight
27
Project improvement to add initiated value
Cost saving program always be implemented: Everest Forever
Corporate Improving program: IRPC 4.0, New DNA
Commitment to Shareholders: 43%-67% payout ratio
Dividend policy: 25% payout ratio
Record fully benefit starting from 2018 After completion of huge CAPEX: UHV and PPE & PPC After planned major turnaround in 1Q17 (every 5 years)
High value Product: Specialty Petrochemical Portfolio
Strong market share and strategic target in PP & PP specialty market
Corporate Governance : DJSI bronze class level
1/3 private company receiving National Anti-Corruption Commission Integrity Awards CG &
TRANSPARENCY
STRONGER
CASH FLOW
SHARE
HOLDERS
INDUSTRY
UPTREND
Strong support from PP outlook
Sole producer ABS in Thailand: ABS limited capacity addition
KEEP
IMPROVING
Thank You
Investor Relations Contact: [email protected]
Tel. 02-765-7380, Fax. 02-765-7379
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