ONR Workshop on

Human Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System

13-14 Apr 2011Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI)

Atlanta, GA

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ONR SponsorDr. Ivy EstabrookeDeputy Director, OSD HSCB Modeling ProgramProgram Manager, Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences and Modeling, ONR

GTRI ContactDr. Lora G. WeissLab Chief ScientistGeorgia Tech Research Institute250 14th Street NWAtlanta, GA 30332-0822(o) 404-407-7611(c) 404-357-1523Lora.Weiss@gtri.gatech.edu

ONR Workshop onHuman Interactions in Irregular Warfare as a Complex System

13-14 Apr 2011Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI)

Atlanta, GA

Agenda 13 April0730-0800 Badges and Breakfast0800-0815 Welcome & Logistics Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI0815-0900 Opening Remarks Mr. George Solhan, ONR 0900-0945 Keynote Speaker Dr. David Snowden, Cognitive Edge0945-1030 Complexity - A Diverse Description

Dr. Norman Johnson, Referentia1030-1045 Break

1045-1130 Complex System Engineering Tom McDermott, GTRI1130-1215 Case Studies for Context Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR

1215-1345 Catered Lunch

1345-1415 Computational Social Science Dr. Robert Axtell, GMU1415-1445 Challenges with Quantifying the Qualitative

Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI1445-1500 Break

1500-1600 Case Study Breakout SessionsGroup 1 Chair: Dr. Jack Zentner, GTRIGroup 2 Chair: Dr. David Sallach, Argonne

National Lab

1600 -1645 Closing Remarks for Day 1 Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR1700 Networking Reception1730 Dinner Guest Speaker: BG David Reist (ret)

14 April0730-0800 Badges and Breakfast0800-0815 Welcome & Logistics Dr. Lora Weiss, GTRI0815-0830 Introductory Remarks Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR0830-0915 Keynote Speaker Dr. John Nagl, CNAS0915 - 1130 Group Working Sessions

• Break at 1015

1130-1300 Catered Lunch, Lunchtime Speaker Dr. Neil Johnson

University of Miami1300-1345 Working Sessions

• Presentation development1345-1415 Group 1 Findings1415-1445 Group 2 Findings

1445-1515 Closing Remarks Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, ONR1515 Adjourn

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Wireless Access Instructions

To connect to the GTRI-CONF wireless network, select the GTRI-CONF wireless network from the available wireless networks. Click on the GTRI-CONF network, when prompted for the security key, use the security key provided below. To access the internet, open your browser, and when prompted by the WEB portal, use the user id and password provided for the conference.

Network Type: WPA/WPA2SSID: GTRI-CONF – 2nd blank needs to be AESSecurity Key: STINGER! USERNAME: hiiwPASSWORD: br36jf56SSID: GTRI-Conf

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WORKING GROUPS - SCENARIOS AND GUIDANCE -

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AnthropologyCriminology

CommunicationSciences

EducationEconomicsGeography

Political SciencePsychology

ReligionSociologyOthers…

Understanding ROMO Understanding the Human Environment

Understanding Power and Influence Understanding the Environment

…from George Solhan’s Presentation

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MULTI-SCALE INTERACTIONS

SCALE

Macro

Meso

Micro

Society

Organization

IndividualCollective interactions form a group

Group and societal influences affect individuals

Dynamic and Unstructured Environment

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ROMO

Power/Influence

Human Environ.

Environ.- What are the key disciplines?- What are the key elements of the

disciplines?- What are the key interfaces between

the disciplines?- What are the key interfaces between

the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)?

- How do we decompose these into building blocks so that hypotheses can be posed and tested?

From the building blocks, can we create a matrix of relevance across

- Phases of ROMO- Power dimensions- Human dimensions

Each Group will Deconstruct, Mix, and Re-construct

SCENARIOS AND WORKING GROUPS

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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UPSCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP

Individuals

Groups

Society

Mubarak: Autocrat Individuals In Egypt

1000s Hundreds of 1000s

Egypt: 85 Million People World: 350 Million Arabs

Multi-Scale Interactions

TIME

PEOPLE

30 Years: Mubarak Rule10 Days: Uprising

Orderly or Chaotic Transition?

- Spontaneous- Massive- Peaceful- Popular- Secular (Islam not center

stage)

What will be the nature of this

transition?

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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UPAutocracy leads to upheaval.

Democracy is best guarantor of stability.

ROMO

Power/Influence

Human Environ.

Environ.

4-5 (Security, Stability, Civil Authority)

Mubarak- Autocrat; clings to power; intimidation- Brutal and corrupt police force

Muslim Brothers- Anti-West, Anti-Israel- 20% popularity, but falling

Military- Control streets, respected by people

West- Influence political, business, & military elite- Help speed transition to order

Democratic Egypt- Beacon to region- Help incorporate Arab democracies- Settlement w/ Palestinians

- Generally poor- Sophisticated elite- Well educated middle

class- Strong sense of

national pride- Unemployed youth (@

20%)- Digitally driven

(internet)- What are the key

disciplines?- What are the key

elements of the disciplines?

- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines?

- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)?

- How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested?

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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY

National Coordinator for Counterterrorism (NCTb), July 2010

Sadik Harchaoui, Chair of the Board of Directors of the Institute for Multicultural Development FORUM, the Netherlands.

FORUM is an independent knowledge institute and centre of expertise for multicultural affairs. FORUM operates out of the frame of reference of the democratic constitutional state, social cohesion and shared citizenship.

Countering Violent Extremists

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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACYCountering Violent Extremists

SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACYCountering Violent Extremists

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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACYCountering Violent Extremists

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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACYCountering Violent Extremists

Footnotes

ROMO

Power/Influence

Human Environ.

Environ.

0 (Shape, Prevent, Prepare)

Jihadi Extremists- West is enemy of Islam- Counter West with jihad

Western Governments (local & national)- De-radicalization and rehabilitation

programs- Empower liberal Muslims

Civil society (non-state) Actors- NGO’s

o Bring credibilityo Well equipped to engage in

dialogue- Local & regional networks

Islamic and Arabic World

Soft Power – ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments

- Doubts about democratic, political, or personnel legitimacy of system

- Socio-economic influences

- Ethnic-cultural positions- State propaganda may

further antagonize- Ordinary citizens willing

to build bridges between cultures

- Popular artists and sportsmen acting as ambassadors

- What are the key disciplines?

- What are the key elements of the disciplines?

- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines?

- What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)?

- How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested?

SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACYCountering Violent Extremists

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Individuals

Groups

Society

Multi-Scale Interactions

TIME

PEOPLE

SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY

Radicalization – slow and gradual process

NGO’s – Daily communications

NGO’s – Relationship building

Years

Days

Citizens - Against extremism- Rank and file with more practical and ordinary motivations- Alienated or estranged; ideologically, religiously, or ethnically

motivatedCivil Society (non-state) Actors - Gain financial and logistical support from government- Must remain independent from government to retain

credibility

Governments- Draw on expertise of society and business

Understanding ROMO0

Shape1

Deter2

Seize Initiative

3Dominate

4 Stabilize

5Enable Civil

Anthropology

Criminology

Communication Sciences

Education

Economics

Geography

Political Science

Psychology

Religion

Sociology

Other

Other

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Phase 0 Shape Prevent, PreparePhase 1 Deter Crisis definedPhase 2 Seize Initiative Assure friendly freedom of action / access theater infrastructurePhase 3 Dominate Establish dominant force capabilities / achieve full-spectrum superiorityPhase 4 Stabilize Establish security and restore servicesPhase 5 Enable Civil Transfer to civil authority and redeploy

RANGE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS (ROMO) PHASES

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Understanding Power & InfluenceTribalism Religious

StateFundamental

-ismTraditional

-ismDemocracy Zionism Other

Anthropology

Criminology

Communication Sciences

Education

Economics

Geography

Political Science

Psychology

Religion

Sociology

Other

Other

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Understanding the Human EnvironmentPhysiology Safety /

SecurityBelonging Esteem Self Actualization Other

Anthropology

Criminology

Communication Sciences

Education

Economics

Geography

Political Science

Psychology

Religion

Sociology

Other

Other

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Notes

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Notes