omnifunds - nirvana systems inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · omnifunds...

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OmniFunds Release 5 April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress” that our users can participate in . We now have three “canned” examples our users can run, StrongETFs, Mean ETF Selection, and Sector (new in R5). We are including the Multi-Group Balancing & Timing, Safety, and Trends Applications ahead of completing examples for them so users who want to run their own experiments can do so. All users can follow our progress and run the examples as we build them . Right Edge Trading is now fully supported. We encourage those users who consider themselves “experimenters” to work with us in parallel and post findings in the OmniFunds forum, at http://www.myomnifunds.com . About Release 5: Improvements to OmniFunds: 1. NEW Sector Trading Application to emulate and improve upon Modern Portfolio Theory. 2. Switching Intervals may now be combined in OmniFunds methods. That is, you can switch on an interval (like Weekly) and ALSO switch when Market State changes. 3. Auto Trade settings accessed by clicking the ... button next to Auto Trade. Essentially, these options enable a user to specify WHEN orders are submitted. Trade setting to submit these orders X minutes after market close or before market open. Improvements to VisualTrader: 1. Various internal changes to support the Sector Trading App and Trade Equalizer About VisualTrader 11 Pro VisualTrader is the platform on which OmniFunds runs. The primary reason we did this was to develop the OmniFunds prototype as quickly as possible. VisualTrader has all the supporting features, including: 1. Charting and window management features 2. The Focus List can have indicator columns useful for examining the sort order. 3. Full paper trading support and the ability to examine Trade Plans in charts. 4. Integrated Portfolio and Equity Curve (new in VT 11) 5. Full support for OmniLanguage 6. Full brokerage trading support (not implemented in OmniFunds yet)

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Page 1: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

OmniFunds

Release 5 – April 22, 2016

About OmniFunds

OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress” that our users can participate in. We now have three “canned” examples

our users can run, StrongETFs, Mean ETF Selection, and Sector (new in R5). We are including the Multi-Group

Balancing & Timing, Safety, and Trends Applications ahead of completing examples for them so users who want to run

their own experiments can do so.

All users can follow our progress and run the examples as we build them. Right Edge Trading is now fully supported.

We encourage those users who consider themselves “experimenters” to work with us in parallel and post findings in

the OmniFunds forum, at http://www.myomnifunds.com.

About Release 5:

Improvements to OmniFunds:

1. NEW Sector Trading Application to emulate and improve upon Modern Portfolio Theory.

2. Switching Intervals may now be combined in OmniFunds methods. That is, you can switch on an interval (like Weekly) and ALSO switch when Market State changes.

3. Auto Trade settings accessed by clicking the ... button next to Auto Trade. Essentially, these options enable a user to specify WHEN orders are submitted. Trade setting to submit these orders X minutes after market close or before market open.

Improvements to VisualTrader:

1. Various internal changes to support the Sector Trading App and Trade Equalizer

About VisualTrader 11 Pro

VisualTrader is the platform on which OmniFunds runs. The primary reason we did this was to develop the OmniFunds

prototype as quickly as possible. VisualTrader has all the supporting features, including:

1. Charting and window management features

2. The Focus List can have indicator columns – useful for examining the sort order.

3. Full paper trading support and the ability to examine Trade Plans in charts.

4. Integrated Portfolio and Equity Curve (new in VT 11)

5. Full support for OmniLanguage

6. Full brokerage trading support (not implemented in OmniFunds yet)

Page 2: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

OmniFunds ToolBar

You can access the OmniFunds apps on the OmniFunds toolbar. Click on the …. Button to select which app you would

like to use. Once you have selected the app, click on the icon in order to access that application’s interface.

Quick Start

This is a Quick Start that uses the Strong ETFs method. The Strong ETFs method is listed again under “Methods” below.

1. Make sure you load the Profile that has the correct symbols for the OmniFund you are going to run.

For this example, click File, Open and load the VisualTrader profile “XRTvsXTN”

2. Click the Drop-Down on the OmniFunds Toolbar to show all installed OmniFunds.

Select Strong ETFs application. You should see the OmniFunds Interface. Select XRTvsXTN in the drop-down.

Select an OmniFunds

Application

Bring up the

OmniFunds interface

The specific

Template

displayed here.

Page 3: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

3. Move the start date back in the PlayBack Tool to January 6, 2014 (for this example).

HINT: You can go back to the same date in subsequent runs by establishing a BookMark. To do so, Right-Click in

the Playback control, select Bookmarks from the menu, and create one at a specific date in the interface. Then,

for your next run, you just activate the BookMark by double-clicking it in the BookMark interface.

4. IMPORTANT: MAKE SURE THE OMNIFUNDS INTERFACE IS VISIBLE (click the OmniFunds button).

If it’s not activated, it will not take any trades. It can be minimized.

5. Click “Simulator” on the Simulator control and select “Start New Session”

6. Click NEXT in the Simulator to advance to the next bar, or PLAY to let it go by itself.

As trades are executed, you will see them appear in the Position Window. You can PAUSE the simulation, click

charts, add indicators – anything you like while the simulation is running or paused. Click Fastest on the

Simulation tool bar and the simulation will run about 5 times faster than the Fast mode.

7. Click Account on the lower right section of VisualTrader to bring up the Account Interface. From here, you can

see all Orders, all Historical Positions, and all Open Positions while the simulation is running. Click Equity Curve

Slider in Play Back

Optional Bookmark feature

(Right Click on the Play

Back tool to activate).

Page 4: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

to see the simulation curve.

The Equity Curve can also be viewed while it is being created.

This OmniFunds was up 52%

with a 13% Draw Down.

During this time the market

only had an 18% Return and

12% Draw Down.

Page 5: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

The OmniFunds Interface

OmniFunds Interface Components

OmniFunds Interface for “StrongETFs”

Each OmniFunds has the same Common Settings (basic filters, rankers, and position controls) but a different

Symbol Selection area that defines the Settings that are Specific to the Application. Dynamic Market States

can OPTIONALLY be used to change all Symbol Selection and Settings depending on what the market is

currently doing. The Interval Control controls when trading can occur. Let’s review each of these…

Interval Control

Name: Name of the settings being used for this OmniFund. You can have multiple Save Sets by using Save As

at the bottom of the form.

Switching Interval:

[x] N Bars

[ ] Every Monday v Weekly v

[ ] when Market State changes

If “N Bars” is selected, the program will switch every N bars, without attempting to line up on a specific day. If

“Every” is selected, it will switch on the interval and say specified. If it cannot trade on the day due to a

holiday, it will trade the following day. If “when Market State changes” is selected, the program will only

perform its switching process when a Market State change occurs. See Market States below.

Common Settings

Symbol Selection Approach

Specific to this Application.

Interval Control

Dynamic Market States

Multiple selections can be set, in which case a switching

evaluation is made when any is true.

Auto-Trade

Page 6: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

Symbol Selection (Specific to this App)

Application example -- Strong ETFs: Each OmniFund has a unique approach. StrongETFs (the first OmniFund)

operates by running the ETF Selector to determine which ETF to switch into, then uses the SymbolRanking

indicator to rank the stocks within the ETF. The highest or lowest values of the indicator (Descending or

Ascending) determine which are selected for switching into. There are unique parameters for Strong ETFs (our

example app):

Max % of Equity: Specify maximum exposure.

Symbol Selection

Simple: Two ETFs that are used for switching.

Multi Pairs: Defined pairs to compare against each other.

Multi ETFs: Evaluates all of the ETFs listed to determine the strongest ETF.

ETF Selector: An indicator which is applied to the actual ETF symbols, to determine which one to switch into.

Settings (Common to all apps)

Market Filter: This is an OmniLanguage indicator with no parameters that returns zero (“0”) if False or “1” if

True. It runs on the Market Symbol that is specified. If it is false then no new entries are allowed. A typical

Market Filter would be

C > EMA(200). {Close greater than the 200p Exponential Moving Average)

[x] Close Existing (next to Market Symbol): If Market Filter turns from True to False and this box is checked,

then all open positions will be closed.

Symbol Filter: This is an OmniLanguage indicator with no parameters that returns zero (“0”) if False or “1” if

True, running on each symbol for which a new position is about to be entered. If False, the new position is not

entered. A typical Symbol Filter would be:

C > EMA(100). {Close greater than the 100p Exponential Moving Average).

Symbol Ranking: Given N possible securities that can be traded at the switching interval, but not all of them

can be taken due to the definition of allocation, they are ranked by this OmniLanguage indicator in Ascending

or Descending order. If Symbol Ranking is blank, the order of the list is used.

Max Concurrent Positions: The number of positions you allow at one time.

Allocation: This is an OmniLanguage indicator that returns a value from 0-100, indicating the % of Equity for

trade size, which is converted into shares. Once the allocation reaches 100% of the equity in the Portfolio

(Account) it will stop taking positions. If Allocation is BLANK then the account will be divided equally among

positions based on the Max Concurrent Positions setting. A simple number can also be typed in, like “10”

which would mean every trade would be 10% of Equity.

This OmniFunds Application

is described in more detail

in the Applications section.

Page 7: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

Trade Plan: You can optionally specify a Trade Plan to be applied to all new positions. If [x] Close Existing

under Market Filter and [x] Close Trades at Switching Interval are NOT checked, the Trade Plan will dictate

when a trade exits,. If these settings ARE checked, they will override the Trade Plan.

[x] Close Trades at Switching Interval: If this is checked, then any open trade that would not normally be

selected at that switch point will be closed. Wouldn’t you always want this? No – if you are using a TradePlan,

you probably want the Trade Plan to exit your trades.

Dynamic Market State Selection

The use of Market States is OPTIONAL. If used,

they can change all settings in the interface to

the left (except Interval) when something

happens in the market.

For example, if the market suddenly drops

through a recent support level, you might want to

reduce allocation or trade a different ETF or

Symbol Group.

Each Market State has a Market Condition, which

is an indicator operating on a Market Symbol.

Market Condition indicators should return a True

or False (1 or 0 integer value). The ORDER the

Market States are evaluated can be changed with

the arrows at the bottom.

The program will evaluate each Market State

from top to bottom. As soon as one evaluates to

TRUE (not zero) then all the Settings on the left

(except the Interval Control) will change to match

the way they were defined for Market State

Each State has the following elements:

Market Condition: The name of an OmniLanguage Indicator that is tested for True or False (1 or 0). If True,

the program switches to all settings defined with that State.

Market Symbol: The Symbol the Market Condition Indicator runs on.

Name Column: The name of the Market State (this is also how the settings are saved).

Active Column: Will say “True” if the Market State is currently active and “False” if it is not. The example

above is what it looks like when it is not running.

If Market States are defined, and you run a simulation, you will see the blue highlight move from state to state

as they are activated. All settings to the left will also change to match the new state.

Add New

Market State

Change

Priority

Delete

Current

Order of evaluation

OmniLanguage

Indicator that

defines this

Market State

Page 8: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

OmniFunds Applications in Release 5

There are multiple types of OmniFunds apps, and you can create as many different “templates” (with different settings) as you like for each OmniFunds app. The OmniFund Applications available in this release:

Strong ETFs

Mean Strength

Sector Trading

Multi Group Balancing

Timing and Safety

Applications with Examples

Strong ETFs (SE)

Approach: Strong ETFs operates by running the ETF Selector indicator to determine which ETF to switch into,

then uses the Symbol Ranking indicator to rank the stocks within the ETF. The highest or lowest values of the

indicator (Descending or Ascending) determine which are selected for switching into.

Profile Requirement: For Strong ETFs to work properly, it needs a profile that has at least 2 ETF groups. ETF

groups are a new feature in VisualTrader 11. We provide a sample Strong ETFs profile. Additional ETF groups

can be created using Right Click – Create ETF Group.

Simple: Two ETFs that are used for switching.

Multi Pairs: Defined pairs to compare against each other. Each pair is created with “/” and separated by “,”

Multi ETFs: Evaluates all of the ETFs listed to determine the strongest ETF.

ETF Selector: An indicator which is applied to the actual ETF symbols, to determine which one to switch into.

By default, we use Relative Momentum.

THIS OMNIFUND WAS DEMONSTRATED IN “RUNNING THE STRONG ETFs EXAMPLE” ABOVE.

Symbol Selection Method: Select N

Symbols from an ETF based on which

ETF is favored using an ETF Selector

indicator. This method trades the

stocks WITHIN an ETF. The Mean

Strength method trades ETFs.

Examples for these are

included in OmniFunds

Note: The Addendum covers

the Trade Equalizer, a

related application that runs

in VisualTrader to trade

Signals. An example for the

Trade Equalizer is included in

this Addendum.

Page 9: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

Mean Strength (MS)

Approach: This OmniFunds ranks the individual components of an ETF in order to rank the actual ETFs for

trading. They can be ranked on up to 3 separate indicators, which are averaged together.

Profile Requirement: A Profile using this app MUST be an ETF profile using the ETF Group feature of

VisualTrader 11. Multiple ETFs and their components should be defined. In addition, a generic “ETFs” group

should be defined that has all the actual ETF symbols in it (for trading purposes).

Indicator 1, 2, and 3: Up to 3 separate OmniLanguage Indicators can be used. The indicator(s) are evaluated

on each symbol in each ETF Group in the Profile in order to select an ETF to trade. If multiple indicators are

defined, the average of the 3 values is used for this purpose.

Activating and Running the Mean Strength Example

1. Make sure you load the Profile that has the correct symbols for the OmniFund you are going to run.

For this example, click File, Open and load the VisualTrader profile “OmniFunds Mean Strength Demo”

2. Click the Drop-Down on the OmniFunds Toolbar to show all installed OmniFunds.

Select Mean Strength. You should now see the OmniFunds Interface.

Make sure MS 11-28-15 Template in the drop down.

ETF Selection Method: Select the top N ETFs by

summing (averaging) up to 3 indicators

measured on all the constituents of each ETF.

This process is intended to identify the

strongest ETF by virtue of its constituents.

The Specific

Template is

selected here.

Page 10: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

3. Move the start date back in the PlayBack Tool to January 1, 2015 (for this example).

4. IMPORTANT: MAKE SURE THE OMNIFUNDS INTERFACE IS VISIBLE (click the OmniFunds button).

If it’s not activated, it will not take any trades. It can be minimized.

5. Click “Simulator” on the Simulator control and select “Start New Session”

6. Click NEXT in the Simulator to advance to the next bar, or PLAY to let it go by itself. As trades are executed, you

will see them appear in the Position Window. You can PAUSE the simulation, click charts, add indicators –

anything you like while the simulation is running or paused.

7. Click Account on the lower right section of VisualTrader to bring up the Account Interface. From here, you can

see all Orders, all Historical Positions, and all Open Positions while the simulation is running. Click Equity Curve

to see the simulation curve.

The market showed a 1% Return and 4% Draw

Down, assuming a 100% investment in SPY.

Slider in Play Back

The run generated a 5% Return with a 1.6% Draw Down.

Margin was not used. Average percent invested was just 15%.

This volatility

was avoided.

Set the End Date

to 7/1/2015

Page 11: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

Sector Trading

The Sector application achieves 4 important goals:

1. Implements the Strong ETFs method as “Top Down”

2. Implements the Mean Strength method as “Bottom Up”

3. Implements a new “Symbol” method, to evaluate between symbols

4. Supports multiple Sectors in the each Market State, with completely different settings on each one!

Each Market State can define multiple Sectors, and each Sector can determine its trading candidates . There is so

much flexibility in this tool that it replaces and extends the Strong ETFs and Mean Strength and Multi -Group

Balancing tools. Sector makes it possible to trade a mix of Sectors that are appropriate for a given Market State.

Approach: (below “Symbol Selection” label)

“Top-Down” is essentially the Strong ETFs method. The Group with the chart having the best

Indicator value wins, and the best symbols within the Group based on Symbol Filter and Symbol Ranking are

traded using the specified Allocation and Trade Plan up to the Max Concurrent Positions setting. A Market Filter

can determine that the entire Sector not trade.

Note on the example. Top Down can select between Groups separated by commas. In the above example, only

ONE group – “BULL MARKET ETFs” is specified, in which case symbols are selected from within that group only.

“Bottom Up” is essentially the Mean Strength method. Group Symbols are chosen based on the

strength of the components. This is designed to be used to select ETFs based on the strength of the underlying

stocks.

Up to 10 Sectors can

be defined in EACH

Market State

Settings Definitions:

In this example, the

visible Settings are for

Sector 1 in the LowVol

Market State.

Two Market States are

defined in this example.

Page 12: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

“Symbol” is a simple, new approach. It’s a simple application that allows a Sector to select between

multiple Symbols based on an indicator. The same symbols can be further filtered and ranked using the Settings

in the bottom part of the interface.

The Sector-1 Example

About Sector-1: Above is the VisualTrader list for the Profile. You can see four different groups in VisualTrader, “INDEXES”, “BULL

MARKET ETFS”, and so on. These groups are used in the Sectors depending on Market State as follows:

Market State Low Volatility ($SPX) High Volatility ($SPX) Condition AroonHigh AroonLow

Sector 1

Approach Top-Down Top-Down

Symbol(s) BULL MARKET ETFs INVERSE ETFS

Max Allocation 100% 50%

Indicator ADX10 ADX10

Symbol Ranking VtyPriceRatio CCI6

Max Positions 2 2

Sector 2

Approach (not used) Top-Down

Symbol(s) DEFENSIVE ETFS – 50%

Max Allocation 50%

Indicator ADX10

Symbol Ranking CCI6

Max Positions 2

Running the Example: 1. Load the Sector1 Profile

2. Open the OmniFunds Sector application from the toolbar.

3. The Sector1 template should already be selected.

4. Click “Simulator” and set the Simulation Start Date to 12/31/2012

and End Date to 4/15/2016.

5. PLAY the Simulation. (see general section on using the simulator)

Over 3 years, we see an average annual return of 21%, only changing

positions 3 times per month. A key advantage of ETF Switching!

4 Trades

Max in

this

Market

State

2 Trades

Max in

this

Market

State

Page 13: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

OmniFunds Applications under Development

The Multi-Group Balancing and Timing and Safety Apps, are fully functional and users can experiment with them;

we just do not have examples coded at this point. Examples will be provided in a future update.

Multi-Group Balanced (MGB)

Approach: Up to 5 different Groups can be traded simultaneously using this OmniFund Application.

Trade the components of up to 5 separate groups using different allocations.

Trade a primary group and hedge with a secondary group (like, inverse ETFs)

Any application where trading occurs in stocks or ETFs within a group.

Group: Any Group on the VisualTrader map, by name. The components of the group will be traded.

At any Market State, the target Groups can be altered, as any other setting in the OmniFund. Since each

Market State establishes what is on the Group tabs, a very large range of possibilities opens up. For example,

in a fearful market we might trade non-market-correlated securities or ETFs with specific allocation, whereas in

a “normal” market we might trade secular groups that benefit from rising market values.

Because of this flexibility, every tab in every state must be examined by the user. if you were to define 4

market states, you will have 4 States x 5 Groups or 20 unique group definitions, each with its own settings.

Note: We have not yet provided an example for this OmniFund.

Timing, Safety, and Trend

Approach: This OmniFunds module uses up to 3 indicators (scaled from 0-100) with a slider so the user can specify a cutoff level for each indicator. Make sure the indicators for Timing, Safety, and Trend return a value from 0-100.

From 1 to 3 indicators can be used. The slider specifies a “cutoff” level for the indicator if it is defined. If not,

the slider should be set to zero. The slider can be used to specify different cutoff levels. The other features of

the primary OmniFunds interface, such as Ranking and Filtering can also be used so that only the strongest

symbols are selected according to the Ranking or Filtering indicators.

Note: We have not yet provided an example for this OmniFund.

Symbol Selection Method: Select ETFs

or Stocks from within Groups in

VisualTrader based on the other setting,

and allocate to the group (primarily

created to be used with DMSS).

Page 14: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

Using OmniFunds for Fully-automated Trading

OmniFunds can now trade live with a broker. Once you have everything set up, make sure the interface is

active and click the [x] Enable Auto Trade check box. From then on, whenever OmniFunds detects the

conditions to submit orders, either intraday or at the close, it will do so. A live broker or paper broker account

can be used.

A feature specifies when End of Day trades are to be placed. Click [..] next to Enable Auto Trade.

You can always push ENTER TRADES if you miss a trading window.

Application Notes

About “Fastest” Mode in the Simulator If you select “Fastest” in the VT Simulator, it will run about 5 times faster than “Fast.” However, you cannot

rely on the AutoSort feature of the list. You must use a Ranking function in the OmniFunds app.

In Development We are working to add additional features into OmniFunds:

Call OmniLanguage indicators with parameters

Access Portfolio positions from the OmniFunds code.

Write OmniLanguage routines that run the entire process (i.e., code new Apps)

Use Optimization Ranges for Variables

The ultimate goal is for users to be able to upload OmniFunds Apps to the OmniFunds web site, so they can

customize their End of Day fund switching application in any way they like.

If you use this...

... don’t use THIS.

Page 15: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

Improving on Modern Portfolio Theory:

The Mean Strength App was created to allow different groups of securities or ETFs to be traded, with specific

allocations for each one. This is similar to the approach taken by Modern Portfolio Theory or MPT.

What is MPT?

MPT was invented in 1953 as a way to “balance” the risk of a Portfolio using different asset classes. The

following table from Wealthfront, a “Robo Advisor” fund management company shows a percentage allocation

and ETF for each asset category.

As long as we have a secular bull market, this approach works reasonably well. But in correcting markets (like

2000, 2008 and 2015-2016) portfolios built this way can suffer devastating losses.

Experimenting with Multi-Group and the NEW Sector Trading Applications

In the Multi-Group Balanced OmniFund, we can use indicators and conditions to adjust mix, allocation, exit

levels, and other factors to manage a “dynamic” portfolio. We are running these experiments now, but users

who want to run their own experiments in this area can now do so in parallel with us using this Application.

Multi-Group was designed to switch between groups according to changes

in Market State. But the Approach used was always to trade the symbols in

the groups through Ranking.

In Release 5, a NEW Application is available called Sector. This app allows a

user to configure Sectors using either a Top-Down approach (which is the

same as Strong ETFs) OR a Bottom-Up approach (which is the same as

Mean Strength) on the SAME MAP. See documentation for the Sector

Trading Application for more info.

Sector Trading applications have the greatest potential in terms of creating a robust fund-switching application,

and this is where we are focusing most of our research right now.

Page 16: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

Using OmniLanguage to Modify Indicators

One of the great things about OmniFunds is that it is based 100% on OmniLanguage Indicators. This means you can

create any kind of Filter, Selector, Ranking or Market State function you want, using the full range of capabilities of the

built-in system. Here is how OmniFunds installs and manages the indicators and settings it uses.

When OmniFunds is installed on a computer, the Indicators used by the defined OmniFunds are copied to an

OmniFunds project in OmniLanguage.

When OmniFunds is installed or editred, the Settings for each OmniFunds are saved in \VisualTrader

\OmniFunds\application\unique_instance.

On-the-fly editing of indicators is supported.

The indicators defined for an app can be edited and re-compiled at any time, even while a simulation is running. Just

click PAUSE in the PlayBack interface, edit your OmniFunds Indicator, and then resume the simulation.

SAVE and SAVE AS

BUTTONS (for new)

OMNIFUNDS

PROJECT

Settings are saved in

VisualTrader/OmniFunds with a

folder for each method.

Indicators installed here.

Page 17: OmniFunds - Nirvana Systems Inc.downloads.nirvanasystems.com/omnifunds/guide.pdf · OmniFunds Release 5 – April 22, 2016 About OmniFunds OmniFunds is an exciting “work in progress”

The OmniFunds Fast Track

OmniFunds Development Approach

A Rapid Prototype Environment Web site programming is difficult and time-consuming.

If we were to attempt to implement OmniFunds on a web

site first, users would not see initial funds for months.

OmniFunds is a rapid prototype development project

based on the VisualTrader platform. By using

VisualTrader as the test platform, we can implement and

test new ideas quickly.

OmniFunds is Unique Technology We have never had a product like OmniFunds before.

OmniFunds is designed to select an allocate to different

investments based on what the market and those

instruments are doing. It’s a powerful paradigm.

The OmniFunds Fast Track The steps of our plan are shown to the right. We will take

what we have learned in the prototype (VisualTrader) to

create a stand-alone OmniFunds program. Then we will

take the same code and port it to an OmniFunds web site

that is dedicated to OmniFunds. Then, we plan to make it

possible for users to see and use their OmniFunds with

their OmniVest portfolios, in OmniVest.

Please submit YOUR ideas! We see this as a major collaborative effort. If you are one

of the users experimenting with OmniFunds, please

submit ideas for new switching algorithms in the

OmniFunds forum, or send them to Ed Downs

[email protected]. If possible, we will create a new

OmniFunds Application that meets your specification.

We know that the OmniFunds approach will produce

powerful fund management results with lower risk than

other apps provide. By implementing first on the

VisualTrader platform, we can quickly try different

indicator combinations, Trade Plans, Allocation methods

and other controls to arrive at great new OmniFunds

Applications.

VisualTrader

OmniFUNDS

Prototype

Application

OmniFUNDS

Platform

OmniFUNDS

Web Site

OmniVEST

Integration

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Experiencing the Power of OmniFunds

The main thing we want new users to see is just how powerful this prototype is. Ultimately, it will become a web site,

but this implementation enables us to have maximum visibility into effective switching methodologies.

Having it run in VisualTrader means you can do all kinds of things like…

Define Indicators in the OmniFunds project and Plot them. This enables you to verify that switching is

happening at the right time, and to tune the indicators. Right-Click, Add Indicator, OmniLanguage,

OmniFunds, … Indicator

Plot all the open positions to see how they are doing, and why some are causing draw downs. Do this from the

Positions Window.

Sort on an indicator in the Focus List, so you can examine the relative “goodness” of symbols to establish a

Ranking function. In StrongETFs, use BOTH Mode, so it can sort the symbols in each ETF. Make sure you set

the Symbol Ranking value to blank if you want to use the Focus List for Ranking Order.

Bring up the Account interface and examine Open Positions, Closed Positions, Orders for the next bar, and

anything else in that interface, PLUS get an Equity Curve (it doesn’t update dynamically right now – we’re

working on that).

Bring up the Market to see how it is behaving relative to your switching paradigm, and identify the right Market

Filter to stop trading (and optionally exit all positions) if the Market starts to falter.

Change any Indicator, at will, before/after/during a Simulation to see the effects.

Work with list Sorts to establish symbol ranking. If no Ranking indicator is specified, it will use the sort of the

upper list in VisualTrader for the order of symbol selection. You can even change this while it’s running!

Experiment with Allocation Formulas. The default is to divide up Equity into N equal parts. But you can write

an Allocation Formula that returns a percentage, and that percentage will be used.

Experiment with Trade Plans. If you specify a Trade Plan, you probably want to turn OFF the check box that

says [x] Close Trades at Switching Interval.

Most VisualTrader features are available during the simulation. You can close trades, move stops, add

indicators, patterns, anything that VT supports to simulate.

The time frame of the program is what is used for switching, and Real Time bars are supported. What would

happen if we switched in Real Time?

Nirvana Club Members: We just implemented ARM4 Indicators that use Neural Network blocks in Strategies to

return NN Score Values. We think the implications of this are truly awesome!

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Addendum: The Trade Equalizer (TE)

THE FOLLOWING EXAMPLE IS FOR THE TRADE EQUALIZER APPLICATION,

AVAILABLE SEPARATELY FROM OMNIFUNDS.

Approach: The Trade Equalizer is different from OmniFunds in that it can be driven by Signals.

SPY ETF chart, 60 Minutes (one month) marked with the different Market States (use the Equalizer Template):

One Month: SPY was up 3% with a Max Draw Down of 6%. (Calmar = 0.5)

Strong Up Trend Up Strong Down Trend Down Other

“Equalizer”

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Trade Equalizer Run:

By comparison, our Trade Equalizer run made 9% with a Max Draw Down of just 3%. (Calmar = 3)

Our Trade Equalizer Application avoided the large draw down and made steady gains.

Activating and Running the Trade Equalizer Example

The Trade Equalizer demonstration can be run as follows:

Open the Trade Equalizer Demo Profile.

Set your Transform to Relative Momentum with Change in Trend.

Check that the upper list is sorted on the Above column and the lower list on the Below column.

Check that the timeframe is set to 60 Minutes Heikin Ashi (RT Data is required).

Click the Simulator button, New Simulation, and set your start date to September 14, 2015

Click the OmniFunds tool bar to select Trade Equalizer. OmniFunds will appear in front of VT.

Select HA 60 Minute in the OmniFunds interface (at the top).

(optional) Plot symbol SPY and bring up the Equalizer Chart Template.

Play the Simulation.

This example uses simple moving average indicators, a basic Heiken Ashi Strategy and a simple Trade Plan to

control exits. It is not intended as a “production” application that should be activated in live trading, but it

does a great job of showing the concept.

Further experimentation should lead to more robust results as more advanced indicators are used for Market

State, Ranking, and Filtering. These later versions will be delivered in updates.