oliver terry - hsmai europe
TRANSCRIPT
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com
HSMAI – Europe Revenue Conference
Global Hotel Performance Trends Oliver Terry Director of Data Services London - Jumeirah Carlton Tower 24th February 2015
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Agenda
• Global Overview • European Trends • UK & London Trends • Europe Pipeline • Europe Forecast
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Our Coverage
50,000 Hotels & 6.75 Million Hotel Rooms
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Our Coverage Hotels & Hotel Rooms
+8.3K
+1.1M
+6.4K
+1.2M +610
+110K +840
+132K
+33K
+3.9M
+585
+150K
Hotels
Rooms
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Global & Europe: International Tourists Arrivals # of international tourist arrivals worldwide and into Europe, in millions
563 Europe
2013
Global 1,087
605 Europe
2015 f
Global 1,187
531 Europe
2012
Global 1,035
583 Europe
2014
Global 1,132
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com STR Global 2014 www.strglobal.com
RevPAR % Change Map December 2014 YTD, Constant Currency USD, Europe in EUR
+8.2% +5.0% € +3.7%
+0.5%
+4.8% +18.3% +14.6%
+2.6%
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Spotlight Europe – What’s Driving European RevPAR? Market performance RevPAR, December 2014 YTD, CC€
Occupancy -3.0%
Eastern Europe Northern Europe
ADR & Occupancy +7.7%
Occupancy +2.6%
Western Europe Southern Europe
ADR & Occupancy +7.4%
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
RevPAR: 3 of 4 Back to Peak 12MMA ADR; Total 2007 – Total 2014 (indexed to 2007)
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Europe Room Supply/Demand % Change 12 months moving average Jan 2006 to December 2014
-8 %
-6 %
-4 %
-2 %
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hun
dred
er
Supply % Chg Demand % Chg
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Europe: 17 consecutive growth months RevPAR Percent Change, January 2001 – December 2014, in EUR
-30 %
-20 %
-10 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Hun
dred
er
17 months of growth
9/11
SARS Global Financial crisis
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
RevPAR %Chg YE 2014 % Chg, Demand and RevPAR, Lux & UpperUp, in Local Currency
-15 % -10 % -5 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 35 %
Athens Glasgow
Madrid Brighton
Lisbon Vienna
Manchester Amsterdam
Brussels Dublin
Edinburgh Belfast Rome Berlin
London Helsinki
Paris Monaco Warsaw Moscow
Hundreder
Demand RevPAR (LC)
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
European Markets Occ, ADR
0 €
50 €
100 €
150 €
200 €
250 €
300 €
40 %
45 %
50 %
55 %
60 %
65 %
70 %
75 %
80 %
85 %
90 % Occupancy ADR
December 2014 YTD, in Euro
Southern & Eastern Europe Western & Northern Europe
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
European Markets Occ, ADR % Chg December 2014 YTD, in local currency
-15 %
-10 %
-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
Occupancy ADR
Southern & Eastern Europe Western & Northern Europe
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Europe Classes Occ and ADR
€0
€50
€100
€150
€200
€250
€300
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy
Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14 +3.9
+2.8
+1.5
+8.9 +4.1
+1.2 +2.8 +0.7 +3.3 +1.8
2013 vs. 2014, Percent % Change, in European Euro
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com
UK & London 2014 Trends “Regional UK steals the headlines with an outstanding year”
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
UK Key Markets YE 2014, RevPAR %, £
3.3% London
7.2% Aberdeen
4.8% Belfast
10.3% Manchester
14.5% Cardiff
6.4% Edinburgh
11.1% Birmingham
23.0% Glasgow
12.6% Leeds
12.7% Plymouth
8.0% Total UK
10.5% Regional UK
3.3% London
2015 STR Global www.strglobal.com
-40 % -20 % 0 % 20 % 40 %
2011
2012
2013
2014
London
Group Transient
Group is supporting the growth in Regional UK Transient & Group RevPAR % Change, £
-10 % 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 %
2011
2012
2013
2014
Regional UK
Group Transient
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Regional UK experienced a more prolonged decline before recovery
July 2008
Sep 2009
Sep 2010
Aug 2012 Dec 2014
£100
£105
£110
£115
£120
£125
£130
£135
£140
£145
78 % 79 % 80 % 81 % 82 % 83 % 84 %
January 2007 – December 2014, 12 Month Moving Average, Occ & ADR
Sep 2008
Jun 2010 Mar 2012
Dec 2012
Dec 2014
£58
£59
£60
£61
£62
£63
£64
£65
64 % 66 % 68 % 70 % 72 % 74 % 76 %
London Regional UK Growth Recession Recovery
May 2014
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
UK Cities Occ, ADR & RevPAR
£0
£20
£40
£60
£80
£100
£120
£140
£160
40 %
45 %
50 %
55 %
60 %
65 %
70 %
75 %
80 %
85 %
90 % ADR RevPAR Occupancy
YE 2014, KPI, £
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
UK Key Cities Occ, ADR % Chg YE 2014, £
-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Occupancy ADR
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
December 2014, Room Count Share
London Regional UK
3 % 15 %
19 %
22 % 12 %
29 %
London vs. Regional UK
11 %
18 %
23 % 12 %
13 %
23 %
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Midscale & Economy lead the growth, ADR growth returns to London
£0
£50
£100
£150
£200
£250
£300
£350
40 %
45 %
50 %
55 %
60 %
65 %
70 %
75 %
80 %
85 %
90 %
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale & Economy
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale & Economy
Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14 RevPAR %Chg.
YE 2013 & 2014, £
London
Regional UK
+2.3% +0.9% +3.5% +6.3% +8.6% +6.6% +7.2% +9.7% +10.7% +13.7%
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com
London 2014 “A good year with a soft middle!”
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
83.0% 2014
82.5%
2013
80.7% 2012
London - Occupancy Consistently Growing Occupancy 2012 - 2014
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
London – Occupancy Trends Monthly Occupancy, Jan -Dec 2014
60 %
65 %
70 %
75 %
80 %
85 %
90 %
95 %
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
GBP 141 2014
GBP 137 2013
GBP 140 2012
London – 2014 Above Olympic ADR totals ADR 2012 - 2014
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
London – ADR Trends Monthly ADR, Jan -Dec 2012, 2013, 2014
£100
£110
£120
£130
£140
£150
£160
£170
£180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014
2015 STR Global www.strglobal.com
Outer London Submarkets Dominating RevPAR Growth RevPAR growth, 2014 over 2013, GBP
Docklands/Greenwich
Earls Court/Kensington/
Chelsea Knightsbridge/Pimlico/Victoria
London West End
North Central London
Outer London East
Outer London North
Outer London South
Outer London West
Paddington/Bayswater/Notting Hill
South Central London
The City/Shoreditch
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
14 %
16 %
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com
Pipeline “UK leads Europe in supply growth!”
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Europe – Pipeline, Top 10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
United Kingdom
Russia
Germany
Turkey
France
Poland
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland
Tusener
Existing Pipeline
January 2015 Report, Pipeline by Room Count
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
United Kingdom Pipeline January 2015 Pipeline Report, Under Contract, Room Count
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
London Northwest England Southeast England
Scotland Southwest England
West Midlands Yorkshire & Humberside
Northeast England East England
East Midlands Wales
Northern Ireland
Tusener
Existing Pipeline
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
United Kingdom Pipeline by Chain Scale January 2015 Report, Pipeline by Room Count
1 % 7 %
14 %
17 %
3 % 18 %
40 %
Luxury Chains
Upper Upscale Chains
Upscale Chains
Upper Midscale Chains
Midscale Chains
Economy Chains
Unaffiliated
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Accumulated room count growth by class; YE 2004 – December 2014
2.9% CAGR
2.3% CAGR
1.2% CAGR
1.1% CAGR
1.2% CAGR
1.6% CAGR
0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 %
Economy Class (120K)
Upper Midscale Class (90K)
Upscale Class (79K)
Upper Upscale Class (59K)
Midscale Class (48K)
Luxury Class (12K)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Room Count Growth by Class
Regional UK
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
+9.7%
+9.6%
+12.8%
+5.0%
+5.7%
+4.0%
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000
Economy Class
Upscale Class
Upper Midscale Class
Upper Upscale Class
Midscale Class
Luxury Class
London Pipeline by Class – Economy also leads the way in rooms January 2015 Pipeline Report, Pipeline Under Contract
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com
Europe Forecast “Southern Europe continues to lead the way”
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Market Forecast - Europe RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Market Forecast - Europe Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, November 2014 edition
AMS
ATH
BAR
BER
BRU BUD
COL
DBL
DUS
FRA
HAM
MAD
MIL
MOS
MUC PAR
PRA
ROM STU
VIE
WAR
ZUR LON
-8 %
-6 %
-4 %
-2 %
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
-4,0% -3,0% -2,0% -1,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0%
ADR
% C
hang
e
Occupancy % Change
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Market Forecast - UK RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
Market Forecast - UK Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, November 2014 edition
BIR EDI
GAT
GLA
HEA LEE
MAN
LON
LON LC
LON UUC
LON UC LON UMC
LON MEC
RUK RUK UUC
RUK UMC RUK MEC
-8 %
-6 %
-4 %
-2 %
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
-2,5% -2,0% -1,5% -1,0% -0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0%
ADR
% C
hang
e
Occupancy % Change
STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com
STR Global
www.strglobal.com You can follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook
STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.
Thank you and any questions?
Oliver Terry
+44 (0)207 922 1930