oklahomaprojections to understand trends in the economy and labor market. industry projections our...

OKLAHOMA ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT

2018

Oklahoma Employment Security Commission Richard McPherson, Executive Director

Economic Research and Analysis Division

Lynn Gray, Director & Chief Economist

Prepared by Monty Evans, Senior Economist

Will Rogers Memorial Office Building

Labor Market Information Unit, 4th Floor N P.O. Box 52003

Oklahoma City, OK 73152-2003 Phone: (405) 557-7172

Fax: (405) 525-0139 Email: [email protected]

September 2018

This publication is issued and is part of the activities of the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission as authorized by the Oklahoma Employment Security Act. An electronic copy has been deposited

with the Publishing Clearinghouse of the Oklahoma Department of Libraries.

Equal Opportunity Employer/Program Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request for individuals with disabilities

mailto:[email protected]

September 2018 Page 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SPECIAL REPORT: Oklahoma Industry and Occupational Projections: 2016 to 2026 ......... 2

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product and Quarterly Change .................................................. 6

Oklahoma’s Real Gross Domestic Product and Quarterly Change ..................................... 8

Industry Share of Oklahoma’s Economy. ............................................................................ 9

Metropolitan Area Contribution to State Real GDP ......................................................... 10

Leading Index for Oklahoma ............................................................................................. 11

U.S. and Oklahoma Unemployment Rates. ...................................................................... 12

Oklahoma Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance .................................................... 13

U.S. and Oklahoma Nonfarm Payroll Employment .......................................................... 14

Oklahoma Employment Change by Industry. ................................................................... 15

U.S. and Oklahoma Manufacturing Employment. ............................................................ 16

Purchasing Managers’ Index (Manufacturing) ................................................................. 17

Oklahoma Active Rotary Rigs and Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price ........................................ 19

Oklahoma Active Rotary Rigs and Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price. ............................ 21

U.S. Total Residential Building Permits. ............................................................................ 23

Oklahoma Total Residential Building Permits................................................................... 24

U.S. and Oklahoma Real Personal Income. ....................................................................... 25

Industry Contribution to Oklahoma Personal Income ...................................................... 26

U.S. Adjusted Retail Sales ................................................................................................. 27

Oklahoma Total Adjusted Retail Sales. ............................................................................. 28

TABLE 1. Oklahoma Average Annual Wage by Major Occupational Group, 2017 ........... 29

TABLE 2. Oklahoma Long-Term Industry Employment Projections, 2016-2026 .............. 30


SPECIAL REPORT: Oklahoma Industry and Occupational Projections: 2016 to 2026

Introduction Every other year, the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission produces long-term industry and occupational employment projections with the base year of the projections decade being an even-numbered year. The goal is not necessarily to predict the exact level of employment ten years in the future, but rather to determine overall trends that can be used for career and policy planning. Employment projections help to facilitate career exploration by high school students and their teachers and parents, college students, career changers, and career development and guidance specialists. Employment projections are also widely used by policymakers and education and training officials to make decisions about education and training policy, funding, and program offerings. Additionally, other state agencies, researchers, and academics use the projections to understand trends in the economy and labor market.

Industry Projections Our 2016 to 2026 industry employment forecast for Oklahoma predicts that total payroll employment will grow 7.4 percent over the decade, adding approximately 130,840 jobs to the state's economy. All but two of Oklahoma's industry supersectors are anticipated to grow in the coming years, (see Table 1).

In the goods-producing industries, employment growth in construction is projected to lead, adding 10,600 jobs (13.7 percent), almost all of which are anticipated to be in specialty trade contractors (5,400 jobs) and heavy and civil engineering construction (3,560 jobs). Natural resources and mining employment is expected to grow at a rate of 15.5 percent, adding 9,250 jobs almost all of which are in support activities for mining (4,840 jobs) and oil and gas extraction (3,050 jobs). Manufacturing employment is projected to decline during the 2016-26 decade, shedding 4,030 jobs (-3.1 percent), led by job losses in machinery (-1,330 jobs), plastics and rubber products (-770 jobs), and fabricated metal product manufacturing (-690 jobs).


Supersector 2016 2026 Change % ChangeTotal Employment 1,771,750 1,902,590 130,840 7.39

Natural Resources and Mining 59,870 69,120 9,250 15.45Construction 77,380 87,980 10,600 13.69Manufacturing 128,680 124,650 -4,030 -3.13Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 306,720 322,920 16,210 5.28Information 21,120 21,160 50 0.22Financial Activities 78,740 83,320 4,590 5.82Professional and Business Services 181,120 197,870 16,750 9.25Education and Health Services 393,450 429,850 36,390 9.25Leisure and Hospitality 186,620 212,790 26,170 14.02Other Services (Except Government) 67,560 67,400 -160 -0.24Government 170,560 176,670 6,120 3.59¹Includes Self Employed and Unpaid Family Workers

Table 1: Oklahoma Long-Term Industry Employment Projections, 2016-2026

Source: Employment Projections Program, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, Economic Research & Analysis Division

For the services-providing industries, employment in education & health services, (including state and local government education and hospitals), is forecast to provide the largest gains adding approximately 36,390 jobs (9.3 percent) with health care & social assistance accounting for more than three-fourths of the growth and adding a projected 28,010 jobs. Almost two-thirds of the job growth in health care & social assistance is expected to be in the ambulatory health care services and hospitals sectors.

Leisure & hospitality employment is projected to increase by 26,170 jobs (14.0 percent) from 2016 to 2026 with nearly two-thirds of the projected job gains in food services & drinking places (16,430 jobs).

Professional & business services employment is expected to add 16,750 jobs (9.3 percent) in the 2016-2026 timeframe. Nearly half of the job growth in this industry is led by gains in the professional, scientific, and technical services sector which is projected to add 7,700 jobs (11.1 percent). Administrative and support services is expected to contribute another 7,840 jobs (8.7 percent).

The broad trade, transportation & utilities supersector is forecast to add 16,210 jobs (5.3 percent) between 2016 and 2026 with more than half of the employment growth in retail trade (8,930 jobs). Transportation & warehousing is expected to add 4,820 jobs (9.1 percent) and wholesale trade employment gaining 1,530 jobs (2.6 percent). Utilities employment is forecast to grow at a 8.0 percent rate adding 920 jobs.

The financial activities supersector is forecast to add 4,590 jobs (5.8 percent) between 2016 and 2026 with gains in both finance & insurance (4,010 jobs) and real estate and rental & leasing (580 jobs).

Government employment, (excluding casinos, casino hotels, education and hospitals), is projected to grow 3.6 percent adding 6,120 jobs during the 2016-2026 period with all the growth at the local government level which is expected to add 8,690 jobs (10.1 percent). Federal and state government are both expected to lose employment in the 2016-2026 round.

Information is forecast to add a scant 50 jobs (0.2 percent) over the 2016 to 2026 decade.

Other services (except government) is expected to decline by 160 jobs for a 0.2 percent loss between 2016 and 2026.


Occupational Projections Turning to occupational projections, several economic trends surfaced in the 2016-2026 round of projections. Health care, influenced by an aging population, is expected to see continued strong growth during the coming decade; construction continues to be on the rebound from the recession; and the need is increasing for replacement workers due to baby boomer retirements.

According to the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission’s occupational employment projections, a solid 212,860 total annual openings are projected from 2016 to 2026, with 13,080 of these being new jobs created during this period. The remaining 199,770 total job openings are due to the need to replace workers who retire or leave their occupations for other reasons.

In terms of absolute job gains, every major occupational group except production is expected to add jobs over the decade between 2016 and 2026. Service occupations are expected to see the largest gain in employment adding 46,810 jobs. Management, business, and financial occupations are projected to add 16,190 jobs followed by construction and extraction occupations which should add 12,630 jobs over the decade, (see Table 2).

The fastest growing occupations for the 2016 to 2026 period are in construction & extraction occupations at 13.2 percent. Employment in computer, engineering & science occupations is projected to grow at 11.3 percent. Service occupations, which include healthcare support and personal care & service occupations, follow at a 11.2 percent rate of growth. Management, business, and financial occupations are expected to grow 8.8 percent. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are forecast to grow at an 8.7 percent rate, (see Table 2).

The occupational groups with the most job openings due to growth and replacement needs remained similar to previous projections rounds. Service occupations are projected to have 59,890 total annual openings followed by office & administrative support occupations which should have 30,060 total annual openings. Sales & related occupations are expected to have 26,230 total annual openings between 2016 and 2026, (see Table 2).


Aggregate Occupational Group 2016 2026Numeric

ChangePercent Change

Annual Total

OpeningsTotal, All Occupations 1,771,750 1,902,590 130,840 7.39 212,860

Management, Business, and Financial Occupations¹ 196,000 212,190 16,190 8.83 18,260Computer, Engineering, and Science² 72,400 79,500 7,100 11.27 6,230Education, Legal, Community Service, Arts, and Media³ 168,230 181,990 13,760 7.01 16,530Healthcare Practitioners and Technical⁴ 112,170 121,940 9,770 8.71 7,190Service Occupations⁵ 365,430 412,240 46,810 11.20 59,890Sales and Related Occupations 179,730 189,740 10,010 5.57 26,230Office and Administrative Support Occupations 269,830 270,300 470 0.17 30,060Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 12,370 12,880 500 4.07 1,910Construction and Extraction Occupations 95,640 108,270 12,630 13.20 11,900Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 78,870 85,260 6,390 8.10 8,240Production Occupations 110,230 109,220 -1,010 -0.92 12,080Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 110,860 119,080 8,220 7.41 14,340

⁵Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).Source: Employment Projections program, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, Economic Research & Analysis Division

Table 2: Oklahoma Occupational Employment Estimates & Projections, 2016-2026

Notes: ¹Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). ²Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 19-0000 in the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). ³Major occupational groups 21-0000 through 27-0000 in the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). ⁴Major occupational group 29-0000 in the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).

Only a handful of occupations are expected to decline between 2016 and 2026. These occupations are focused in manufacturing, due to international competition and the adoption of new productivity-enhancing technologies, such as robots. These production occupations include various machine and tool setters, assemblers, and operators.

Also, technological changes are expected to continue to negatively affect the employment of several office and administrative support occupations. Employment declines are projected for data entry keyers, word processors and typists, computer operators, switchboard operators, and executive secretaries and administrative assistants.

Occupations focused in postal jobs are also projected to decline in the 2016-2016 decade as the federal postal system continues to cut back employment.

More Information Detailed forecast tables are available at: https://ok.gov/oesc/Labor_Market/Industry_and_Occupational_Employment_Projections/index.html

There you will find industry and occupational projections for the current 2016-2026 round along with the 2016-2018 short-term industry and occupational projections as well as 2014-2024 long-term projections for Oklahoma’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas.

https://ok.gov/oesc/Labor_Market/Industry_and_Occupational_Employment_Projections/index.html


Definition & Importance Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States—is the broadest measure of economic activity. It is also the measure that is most indicative of whether the economy is in recession. In the post-World War II period, there has been no recession in which GDP did not decrease in at least two quarters, (the exceptions being during the recessions of 1960-61 and 2001).

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce releases GDP data on a quarterly basis, usually during the fourth week of the month. Data are for the prior quarter, so data released in April are for the 1st quarter. Each quarter's data are revised in each of the following two months after the initial release.

Background There are four major components to GDP:

1. Personal consumption expenditures: Individuals purchase durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation).

2. Investment: Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.

3. Net exports: Equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and are deducted from the calculation of GDP.

4. Government: Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.


The four major categories of GDP—personal consumption expenditures, investment, net exports and government—all reveal important information about the economy and should be monitored separately. This allows one to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the economy.

Current Developments U.S. economic growth in the 2nd quarter was more robust than previously reported, growing at the fastest pace since 2014, as business investment offset slower consumer spending. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2018, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the 1st quarter, real GDP increased at a revised 2.2 percent.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was lowered to a 3.8 percent rate in the 2nd quarter instead of the previously reported 4.0 percent pace. Spending on durable goods, such as automobiles, jumped 8.6 percent in the 2nd quarter, down from the 9.3 percent pace reported earlier. Nondurable goods outlays were revised lower to 3.7 percent, from 4.2 percent. Spending on services, such as health care and insurance, was unchanged at 3.1 percent. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed 2.55 percentage points to 2nd quarter GDP rather than the 2.69 percentage point contribution estimated previously.

Business investment was revised upward to an 8.5 percent pace in the 2nd quarter with more business spending on software than previously estimated. Spending on structures surged 13.2 percent in the April to June period. Outlays on equipment were also upwardly revised to 4.4 percent, while expenditures on intellectual property products jumped 11.0 percent. Nonresidential fixed investment contributed 1.13 percentage points to 2nd quarter GDP growth, up from 0.98 percentage point reported in the “advance” estimate.

Inventory building by businesses declined at a rate of $26.9 billion instead of the $27.9 billion pace reported earlier. The change in private inventories subtracted 0.97 percentage point from GDP growth in the 2nd quarter instead of the previously estimated 1.0 percent.

The housing market continued to weaken, contracting at a 1.6 percent rate following 3.4 percent drop in the 1st quarter. Residential investment subtracted 0.06 percentage point to 2nd quarter GDP growth after detracting 0.14 percentage point in the 1st quarter.

Exporters of soybeans and other products rushed to get their shipments to market in the 2nd quarter before retaliatory tariffs take effect. Exports rose at a 9.1 percent rate in the 2nd quarter instead of the previously estimated 9.3 percent pace. Imports declined at a 0.4 percent rate, the biggest drop since the 4th quarter of 2015. The narrowing trade gap added 1.17 percentage points to 2nd quarter GDP growth, instead of the 1.06 percentage points reported last month.

Government outlays increased 2.3 percent in the 2nd quarter, as federal government spending grew at an upwardly-revised rate of 3.7 percent boosted by a 6.0 percent rise in national defense spending. Spending by state and local governments increased at an upwardly-revised pace of 1.6 percent in the 2nd quarter. Government consumption expenditures and investment added 0.41 percentage point to 2nd quarter GDP growth compared to the previous 0.37 percentage point.

Real GDP increased at a revised 2.2 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level), compared with a revised increase of 1.6 percent in 2016.


Definition & Importance The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently began producing statistics of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) by state dating back to 2005. These new statistics provide a more complete picture of economic growth across states that can be used with other regional data to gain a better understanding of regional economies as they evolve from quarter to quarter. The new data provide a fuller description of the accelerations, decelerations, and turning points in economic growth at the state level, including key information about changes in the distribution of industrial infrastructure across states.

Current Developments U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) by state—a measure of nationwide growth calculated as the sum of GDP of all states and the District of Columbia—increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the 1st quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The percent change in real GDP in the 1st quarter ranged from 3.6 percent in Washington to -0.6 percent in North Dakota.

Overall growth in real GDP by state decelerated to a 1.8 percent pace in the 1st quarter from 2.7 percent the 4th quarter of 2017. Real estate and rental and leasing along with information services were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally in the 1st quarter, according to the BEA.

In the 1st quarter of 2018, the pace of Oklahoma’s real GDP slowed after accelerating in the previous quarter. Oklahoma’s real GDP grew at a 1.7 percent rate in the 1st quarter, ranking the state 22nd among all other states and the District of Columbia. Statewide GDP was at a level of $176.5 billion (in constant 2009 dollars) in the 1st quarter, up $0.7 billion from the 4th quarter’s level of $175.8 billion.


Real estate and rental and leasing increased 3.3 percent nationally for the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. This industry contributed to GDP growth in 47 states and the District of Columbia in the 1st quarter of 2018. In Oklahoma, real estate and rental and leasing was the leading contributor to 1st quarter GDP growth adding 0.37 percentage point.

Information services increased 6.8 percent nationally in the 1st quarter and was the leading contributor to GDP growth in Washington. In addition to Washington, this industry was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Colorado and contributed to growth in every other state, including Oklahoma and the District of Columbia.

Nondurable goods manufacturing increased 3.8 percent nationally in the 1st quarter. This industry contributed to growth in 46 states and the District of Columbia. However, in Oklahoma nondurable goods manufacturing subtracted 0.12 percentage point from 1st quarter GDP.

Durable goods manufacturing increased 3.2 percent nationally–the eighth consecutive quarter of growth. This industry was the leading contributor to the increases in real GDP in the Great Lakes states of Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In Oklahoma, durable good s manufacturing contributed 0.19 percentage point to 1st quarter GDP growth.

Mining increased 5.5 percent nationally–the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. This industry was the leading contributor to the increases in real GDP in Texas and West Virginia. Mining added 0.17 percentage point to 1st quarter GDP growth in Oklahoma.

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting decreased 4.6 percent nationally. Although this industry declined nationally, it was the leading contributor to the increases in real GDP in South Dakota and Wyoming, which were among the fastest growing states. Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting contributed 0.33 percentage point to Oklahoma’s GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2018.


Definition & Importance Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) are county-based definitions developed by the Office of Management and Budget for federal statistical purposes. A metropolitan area is defined as a geographic area consisting of a large population nucleus together with adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration with the nucleus.

GDP by metropolitan area is the sub-state counterpart of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the BEA's featured and most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by metropolitan area is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in the metropolitan area. Nationally, metropolitan statistical areas represent approximately 90 percent of total GDP. In Oklahoma, the three MSAs of Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Lawton accounted for over 70 percent of total state GDP in 2013.

Current Developments Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 312 out of 383 metropolitan areas in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The percent change in real GDP by metropolitan area ranged from 12.1 percent in Odessa, TX to -7.8 percent in Enid, OK. Real GDP for U.S. metropolitan areas increased 2.1 percent in 2017, led by growth in professional and business services; wholesale and retail trade; and finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing.

In 2017, three of Oklahoma’s four metropolitan areas experienced negative growth. Natural resources and mining subtracted from growth in Enid MSA (-7.8 percent), ranking it last among the 383 metro areas in 2017. Tulsa MSA’s GDP contracted 1.1 percent (ranked 353rd), pulled down by natural resources and mining and construction. Lawton MSA declined 0.1 percent to $5.2 billion in 2017 and ranked 318th among U.S. metro areas. Oklahoma City MSA grew 2.3 percent to $74.9 billion and ranked 142nd, lifted by natural resources and mining and professional and business services.


Definition & Importance The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces leading indexes for each of the 50 states. The indexes are calculated monthly and are usually released a week after the release of the coincident indexes. The Bank issues a release each month describing the current and future economic situation of the 50 states with special coverage of the Third District: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware.

The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level residential housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

Current Developments Oklahoma’s leading index, a six-month forecast of the state’s coincident index, expanded again in July. The state’s leading index was 3.25 percent in July after a downwardly-revised 3.12 percent reading in June. The index level for May was revised down to 1.76 percent from the previous estimate of 2.15 percent, according to the latest figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

From March 2015 through March 2016, Oklahoma’s leading index was in negative territory for five out of 13 readings. However, the state’s economy has turned around. Beginning April 2016, the leading index returned to positive readings for the past 28 months. Overall, Oklahoma’s leading index for July suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the 1st quarter of 2019.


Definition & Importance The Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program produces monthly estimates of total employment and unemployment from a national survey of 60,000 households. The unemployment rate measures the percentage of people who are without work and is calculated by dividing the estimated number of unemployed people by the civilian labor force. The result expresses unemployment as a percentage of the labor force.

The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession many people leave the labor force entirely. As a result, the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis and reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.

Current Developments The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged in August, near an 18-year low. The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The labor force participation rate—the share of working-age Americans who are employed or looking for work—declined by 0.2 percentage point over the month to 62.7 percent.

Oklahoma’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent in July. Over the year, Oklahoma’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point compared to July 2017.

In July, jobless rates declined over the month in 76 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties and unchanged in one county. Latimer County had the state’s highest county unemployment rate at 6.7 percent, while Grant County had the lowest unemployment rate at 2.1 percent. Unemployment rates in July were lower than a year earlier in all of Oklahoma’s 77 counties.


Definition & Importance Initial unemployment claims are compiled weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration and show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance benefits for the first time. This particular variable is useful because it gives a timely assessment of the overall economy.

Initial claims are a leading indicator because they point to changes in labor market conditions. An increasing trend signals that layoffs are occurring. Conversely, a decreasing trend suggests an improving labor market. The four-week moving average of initial claims smooths out weekly volatility and gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.

Current Developments The number of Americans filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose in the last week of August. In the week ending August 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000, according to the Department of Labor (DOL). The less volatile 4-week moving average was 212,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 213,750. The DOL also noted that this is the lowest level for this average since December 13, 1969 when it was 210,750

Both initial and continued claims for jobless benefits in Oklahoma showed little change in August. For the file week ending August 25, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were at a level of 1,248, up 89 from the previous week but down 197 over the year. For the same file week ending, the less volatile four-week moving average increased 23 from the previous week to 1,190 but was down 260 over the year.

For the same file week ending August 25, continued claims for unemployment insurance benefits dropped 338 from the previous week to a level of 12,263. Over the year, continued claims fell 2,454 from 14,717 reported on August 26, 2018.


Definition & Importance Nonfarm payroll employment data is produced by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The CES Survey is a monthly survey of approximately 140,000 nonfarm businesses and government agencies representing approximately 440,000 individual worksites. The CES program has provided estimates of employment, hours, and earnings data by industry for the nation as a whole, all States, and most major metropolitan areas since 1939. In order to account for the size disparity between of U.S. and Oklahoma employment levels, we have indexed the data with January 2001 as the start value.

Payroll employment is one of the most current and reliable indicators of economic conditions and recessionary trends. Increases in nonfarm payrolls translate into earnings that workers will spend on goods and services in the economy. The greater the increases in employment, the faster the total economic growth.

Current Developments U.S. employers picked up hiring in August and wages had the largest annual increase in more than nine years. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, in line with the average monthly gain of 196,000 over the prior 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job gains were broad based led by professional and business services (+53,000), health care (+33,000), wholesale trade (+22,000), transportation and warehousing (+20,000), and mining (+6,000). Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $27.16. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 77 cents, or 2.9 percent.

Oklahoma nonfarm employment added a seasonally-adjusted 300 jobs (0.0 percent) in July, to a level of 1,692,300 while June’s estimate was upwardly revised to 1,692,000. Five of Oklahoma’s 11 supersectors added jobs over the month as professional & business services and leisure & hospitality (+1,200) both posted the largest monthly gain. Education and health services (-1,300) reported the largest over-the-month job loss followed by construction (-700).


Definition & Importance Employment growth by industry identifies the types of jobs being created in the state. Conversely, industries with a declining employment trend indicate those which are becoming less important in the state’s economy. There may also be industries which behave more cyclically, growing during expansion and decreasing in times of economic slowdown or contraction. These changes are crucial in that they help to recognize the types of jobs being lost by individuals. Anticipating what will happen in recovery helps identify whether those jobs will return or what types of new jobs will be created. Consequently, key information for planning re-employment, retraining, and other workforce and economic development programs is contained within these data. For this analysis, we are using CES non-seasonally adjusted annual averages to compare year-over-year employment changes.

Current Developments Statewide annual average employment growth gained steam in 2017, as the mining sector added jobs after 20 consecutive months of declines (from January 2015 to August 2016). Total nonfarm employment gained a non-seasonally adjusted 8,700 jobs for a 0.5 percent growth rate. For comparison, 14,600 jobs were lost in 2016 for a -0.9 percent decline.

In 2017, six out of Oklahoma’s 11 statewide supersectors recorded job gains. Professional & business services led all other supersectors adding 3,900 jobs (2.1 percent). Mining & logging and other services both gained 3,800 jobs each. Leisure & hospitality improved by 2,700 jobs (1.6 percent). Education and health services grew by 900 jobs (0.4 percent) and financial activities added 400 jobs (0.5 percent) over the year.

The largest annual average over-the-year job losses were seen in the broad trade, transportation and utilities supersector which lost a non-seasonally adjusted 2,900 jobs (-0.9 percent) as retail trade lost 4,600 jobs (-2.5 percent) but was offset by a 1,800 job gain in transportation, warehousing & utilities. Government shed 2,200 jobs (-0.6 percent) with most of the losses coming from state (-1.6 percent) and local government (-0.5 percent).


Definition & Importance Manufacturing employment data is also produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Manufacturing and production are still important parts of both the U.S. and Oklahoma economies. During the 2007-09 recession, employment in manufacturing declined sharply. Although manufacturing plunged in 2008 and early 2009 along with the rest of the economy, it is on the rebound today while other key economic sectors, such as construction, still suffer. In Oklahoma, manufacturing accounts for one of the largest shares of private output and employment in the state. In addition, many manufacturing jobs are among the highest paying jobs in the state. In order to account for the size disparity between the U.S. and Oklahoma employment levels, we have indexed the data with January 2001 as the starting value.

Current Developments U.S. manufacturing payrolls fell in August—the first drop in factory employment in over a year. Manufacturing shed 3,000 jobs in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In August, manufacturing employment was held down by declines in machinery (-1,200), computer and electronic products (-1,800), and motor vehicle and parts (-4,900) industries. Over the year, employment in the industry was up by 254,000, with more than three-fourths of the gain in durable goods.

Oklahoma manufacturing employment dropped a seasonally-adjusted 500 jobs (-0.4 percent) over the month in July. Both durable and non-durable goods sectors contributed to overall manufacturing job losses in July.

Over the year, statewide manufacturing employment expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 2,100 jobs (1.6 percent) as job gains in durable goods manufacturing were offset by job losses in non-durable goods (-2,300 jobs).


Definition & Importance Economists consider the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI™) a key economic indicator. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The ISM manufacturing index is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.

For the region, since 1994, the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group at Creighton University has conducted a monthly survey of supply managers in nine states (including Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota), to produce leading economic indicators for the Mid-America economy using the same methodology as the national survey by the ISM.

Current Developments U.S. manufacturing activity soared in August as a surge in new orders pushed the index to a 14-year high. The August PMI® registered 61.3 percent, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the July reading of 58.1 percent, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®. Of the 18 manufacturing industries surveyed, 16 industries, led by computer & electronic products producers, reported growth in August.

The report’s gauge of new orders increased to a reading of 65.1 in August, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the July reading of 60.2 percent. However, a measure of export orders fell in August, likely reflecting a stronger dollar. ISM’s supplier deliveries index jumped to a reading of 64.5 last month, underlining increasing bottlenecks in the supply chain.

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for a nine-state region stretching from North Dakota to Arkansas, jumped to a very healthy level, continuing to point to positive and improving growth for the next three to six months, according to the latest monthly survey results. The Business Conditions Index, which ranges


between 0 and 100, climbed to 61.1 in August from July’s 57.0. This is the 21st straight month the index has remained above growth neutral 50.0.

“The regional economy continues to expand at a very healthy pace with manufacturing growth of approximately 3.1 percent over the past 12 months compared to a much lower 2.6 percent for the U.S.,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group.

Oklahoma’s Business Conditions Index slipped to 60.4 in August from July’s 60.6 reading, it has remained above the 50.0 threshold for the last 13 months. Components of the overall August index were new orders at 65.8, production or sales at 60.7, delivery lead time at 59.4, inventories at 58.2, and employment at 58.0.

“Over the past 12 months, the state’s durable manufacturing sector has expanded jobs by 4.9 percent, while nondurable goods producers lost 5.9 percent of its employment base for overall manufacturing growth of 1.5 percent over the 12-month period, eighth among the nine Mid-America states,” said Goss.


Definition & Importance Crude oil is an important commodity in the global market. Prices fluctuate depending on supply and demand conditions in the world. Since oil is such an important part of the economy, it can also help determine the direction of inflation. In the U.S. consumer prices have moderated whenever oil prices have fallen, but have accelerated when oil prices have risen. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad.

The Baker Hughes rig count is an important indicator for the energy industry and Oklahoma. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI-Cushing) is a light crude oil produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma which serves as a reference or "marker" for pricing a number of other crude streams and which is traded in the domestic spot market at Cushing, Oklahoma.

Background Oklahoma produces a substantial amount of oil. Excluding federal offshore areas, Oklahoma ranked 6th in the nation in crude oil production in 2017 (at 161,678,000 barrels). Crude oil wells and gathering pipeline systems are concentrated in central Oklahoma. Two of the 100 largest oil fields in the United States are found in Oklahoma.

The city of Cushing, in central Oklahoma, is a major crude oil trading hub connecting Gulf Coast producers to Midwest refining markets. In addition to Oklahoma crude oil, the Cushing hub receives supply from several major pipelines that originate in Texas. Traditionally, the Cushing Hub has pushed Gulf Coast and Mid-Continent crude oil supply north to Midwest refining markets. However, production from those regions is in decline, and an underused crude oil pipeline system has been reversed to deliver rapidly expanding heavy crude oil supply produced in Alberta, Canada to Cushing, where it can access Gulf Coast refining markets. For this reason,


Cushing is the designated delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contracts. Crude oil supplies from Cushing that are not delivered to the Midwest are fed to Oklahoma’s five refineries, which have a combined distillation capacity of more than 511,000 barrels per day—roughly 2.7 percent of the total U.S. refining capacity.

Current Developments In the most recent release of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts international Brent crude oil prices to average $73 per barrel (b) in the 2nd half of 2018 and decline to an average of $71/b in 2019. Competing upside and downside price risks are expected to play a large role in price formation during the forecast period. Upside price risks stem largely from the possibility of supply outages when both petroleum inventories and spare crude oil production capacity for members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are lower than average. Downside price risks stem largely from potentially reduced demand because economic growth and resulting crude oil demand could be lower than forecast.

Although Oklahoma crude production slipped a bit in June, production still remains at record levels in 2018. Oklahoma field production of crude oil in June was at a level of 15,775,000 barrels (bbl), 634,000 bbl (-3.9 percent) less than the upwardly-revised May production level of 16,409,000 bbl. For the first half of 2018, statewide crude production was at a level of 96,147,000 bbl, which is 18,554,000 bbls (23.9 percent) more than the 77,593,000 bbls produced in the first six months of 2017.

Domestic oil prices rose in August, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI-Cushing) began the month at $68.80/barrel (b) and finished the month at $69.84/b, for a gain of $1.04 per barrel over the month.

The number of rigs drilling for oil and natural gas in the U.S. was up four (4) rigs for the week ending August 31, 2018 raising the total rig count to 1,048 rigs, according to Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. Of that total, 862 rigs (82.3 percent) drilled for oil and 184 (17.6 percent) explored for natural gas. Compared to a year ago, the nation’s rig count increased 105 from 940 rigs reported on August 25, 2017.

Oklahoma’s active rig count for the week ending August 31, 2018 was at 139 rigs, down one (1) rig from the previous week’s total, according to Baker Hughes. Oil-directed rigs accounted for 130 active rigs (94 percent) of total rig activity. Over the year, Oklahoma’s rig count was up nine (9) from 130 rigs reported on August 25, 2017.


Definition & Importance The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S., and three regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products. Natural gas product prices are determined by supply and demand—like any other good or service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in natural gas prices. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. However, during a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for natural gas may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices.

The Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana is a key benchmark location for natural gas pricing throughout the United States. The Henry Hub is the largest centralized point for natural gas spot and futures trading in the United States. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) uses the Henry Hub as the point of delivery for its natural gas futures contract. Henry Hub “spot gas” represents natural gas sales contracted for next day delivery and title transfer at the Henry Hub. The settlement prices at the Henry Hub are used as benchmarks for the entire North American natural gas market. Approximately 49 percent of U.S. wellhead production either occurs near the Henry Hub or passes close to the Henry Hub as it moves to downstream consumption markets.

Background Oklahoma is one of the top natural gas producers in the nation, ranking 4th among all states in U.S. gross production in 2016, (excluding offshore production), at 2,468,312 million cubic feet (7.6 percent of U.S. gross production). More than a dozen of the 100 largest natural gas fields in the country are found in Oklahoma and proven reserves of conventional natural gas have been increasing in recent years. `

Most natural gas in Oklahoma is consumed by the electricity generation and industrial sectors. About three-fifths of Oklahoma households use natural gas as their primary energy source for home heating. Nevertheless, only about one-third of Oklahoma’s natural gas output is


consumed within the state. The remaining supply is sent via pipeline to neighboring states, the majority to Kansas, including the natural gas trading hubs in Texas and Kansas.

Current Developments A recent report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico have been increasing following expansions of cross-border pipeline capacity. These exports averaged 4.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017 and 4.4 Bcf/d through the first five months of 2018. Based on data compiled by Genscape, natural gas exports to Mexico by pipeline exceeded 5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for the first time in July 2018, after the commissioning of several key pipelines in Mexico. By the end of 2018, an additional four of six major pipelines identified as strategic in Mexico’s five-year natural gas infrastructure expansion plan are scheduled to begin commercial operations. Natural gas exports from the United States will help meet growing demand from Mexico’s natural gas-fired power generation and industrial sectors, offsetting declines in Mexico’s domestic production.

Statewide natural gas production eased a bit in June after rising to the highest monthly level since record-taking began (January 1991) in May. Oklahoma natural gas gross withdrawals were at a level of 241,846 million cubic feet (MMcf), 2,045 MMcf (-0.8 percent) less than May’s upwardly revised level of 243,891 MMcf. For the first half of 2018, statewide natural gas production was at a level of 1,399,129 MMcf, or 203,103 MMcf (17.0 percent) more than 1,196,026 MMcf produced in the first six months of 2017.

U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot prices rose in August, averaging $2.96 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), 13 cents more than the June average of $2.83 MMBtu.

According to oil services company Baker Hughes, for the week ending Friday, August 31, the U.S. natural gas rig count was at 184 rigs, adding two (2) rigs from the previous week and four (4) units more than the 180 rigs operating on August 25, 2017.

Oklahoma’s natural gas-directed drilling rig count stood at nine (9) units for the week ending August 31, 2018, the same as the previous week. Over the year, the number of statewide rotary rigs exploring for natural gas was up one (1) unit from eight (8) reported for the week ended August 25, 2017.


Definition & Importance The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly provide monthly national and regional data on the number of new housing units authorized by building permits; authorized, but not started; started; under construction; and completed. The data are for new, privately-owned housing units (single and multifamily), excluding "HUD-code" manufactured homes. Because permits precede construction, they are considered a leading indicator for the residential construction industry and the overall economy. Most of the construction begins the same month the permit is issued. The remainder usually begins construction during the following three months; therefore we also use a three-month moving average.

While home construction represents a small portion of the housing market, it has an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and about $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Overall, homebuilding fell to its lowest levels in 50 years in 2009, when builders began work on just 554,000 homes.

Current Developments U.S. residential building permit activity, a gauge of future housing demand, climbed in July, boosted by a surge of single-family permitting. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000, 1.5 percent above the revised June rate of 1,292,000 and 4.2 percent above the July 2017 rate of 1,258,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Single-family residential permits, which account for the largest share of the housing market, jumped 1.9 percent in July to a pace of 869,000 units, while permits for apartments climbed 0.7 percent to a pace of 442,000 units.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 67 in August from 68 in July.


Definition & Importance The data services of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis produces series that are seasonally adjusted including monthly state level data on the number of new housing units authorized by building permits. These adjustments are made using the X-12 Procedure of SAS to remove the seasonal component of the series so that non-seasonal trends can be analyzed. This procedure is based on the U.S. Bureau of the Census X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program.

Current Developments Statewide residential permitting activity picked up in July, after two consecutive months of declines. Total residential building permitting was at a seasonally-adjusted level of 824 in July, up 38 permits (4.9 percent) from the June level of 785, and 21 permits (2.6 percent) more than the June 2017 estimate of 803 permits, according to figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

In July, permits for single-family homes were at a seasonally-adjusted level of 762, up 27 permits (3.6 percent) from the upwardly-revised level of 735 permits in June. Multi-family permitting was at a seasonally-adjusted level of 62, up 12 permits, (23.0 percent), from 51 units permitted in June. Single-family permitting accounted for 92.5 percent of total residential permitting activity in July while the more volatile multi-family permitting accounted for 7.5 percent.

Year to date, Oklahoma total residential permitting was at a level of 6,087 permits, compared to 6,740 permits (-9.7 percent) for the first seven months of 2017.


Definition & Importance Personal income is a broad measure of economic activity and one for which relatively current data are available. Personal income includes earnings, property income such as dividends, interest, and rent and transfer payments, such as retirement, unemployment insurance, and various other benefit payments. It is a measure of income that is available for spending and is seen as an indicator of the economic well-being of the residents of a state. Earnings and wages make up the largest portion of personal income.

To show the vastly different levels of total personal income for the U.S. and Oklahoma on the same chart, these data have been converted to index numbers. This chart shows a comparison of Oklahoma and U.S. growth in real personal income with 1st quarter 2000 as the base year.

Current Developments Both U.S. consumer spending and incomes grew at solid rates in July while a key gauge of inflation posted the sharpest annual gain in six years. Personal income increased $54.8 billion (0.3 percent) in July according to estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $52.5 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $49.3 billion (0.4 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

Spending on durable goods, such as automobiles, sank 0.5 percent in July, following a 0.2 percent gain in June. Nondurable goods purchases jumped 0.6 percent driven by rising energy prices. Spending on services, by far the largest consumer category, increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.4 percent in June.

Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending in July, the fastest over-the-year rise since March 2012. The ‘core’ personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure that excludes the volatile food and energy components, was up 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending in July, from a 1.9 percent year-over-year increase in June.


Definition & Importance Quarterly estimates of state personal income are seasonally adjusted at annual rates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Quarterly personal income estimates are revised on a regular schedule to reflect more complete than the data that were available when the estimates were initially prepared and to incorporate updated seasonal factors.

Current Developments State personal income increased 4.3 percent at an annual rate in the 1st quarter of 2018, after increasing 4.7 percent in the 4th quarter of 2017, according to estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income increased in all states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 7.4 percent in Washington to 2.0 percent in Idaho.

Oklahoma’s personal income grew at a 4.0 percent rate, to a level of $173.8 billion, ranking the state 37th among all states in the 1st quarter of 2018. For the 4th quarter of 2018, Oklahoma’s personal income was revised upward to 2.1 percent (from the previous 0.2 percent estimate).

For the nation, earnings increased 4.7 percent in the 1st quarter of 2018, after increasing 4.6 percent in the 4th quarter of 2017. Earnings growth ranged from an increase of 9.5 percent in Washington to 0.0 percent in Idaho, and was the leading contributor to growth in personal income in most states. Oklahoma’s net earnings grew 4.9 percent, contributing 3.0 percentage points to personal income growth in the 1st quarter of 2018.

In Oklahoma, earnings in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (0.54 percentage point), health care and social assistance (0.44 percentage point), and durable goods manufacturing (0.42 percentage point) were the leading contributors to earnings growth in the 1st quarter of 2018.

Federal civilian and military earnings increased $6.0 billion and $3.4 billion dollars, respectively, due to pay raises that took effect in the 1st quarter. In Oklahoma, federal civilian and military earnings contributed 0.22 and 0.15 percentage point, respectively to 1st quarter earnings growth.


Definition & Importance Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and is therefore essential to Oklahoma’s economy. Retail sales account for around one-half of consumer spending and economic recovery calls for consumption growth.

Current Developments U.S. retail sales surged in July as households boosted purchases of autos and other discretionary spending items. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $507.5 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent from the previous month, and 6.4 percent above July 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total sales for the May 2018 through July 2018 period were up 6.3 percent from the same period a year ago. The May 2018 to June 2018 percent change was revised downward from +0.5 percent to +0.2 percent.

Motor vehicle sales rose 0.2 percent in July after only edging up a downwardly-revised 0.1 percent in June. Receipts at service stations increased 0.8 percent on higher pump prices. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales jumped 0.6 percent in July. Sales at restaurants and bars increased 1.3 percent and sales clothing stores rebounded 1.3 percent after declining 1.6 percent in June. Online and mail-order retail sales increased 0.8 percent following a 0.7 percent rise in June. Receipts at furniture stores fell 0.5 percent while sales at building material stores were unchanged last month. Spending at hobby, musical instrument and book stores declined 1.7 percent.

The less volatile “core” or retail-control group sales which are used to calculate gross domestic product, and strips out automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services sales, rose 0.5 percent in July following a downwardly-revised 0.1 percent decline in June.


Definition & Importance The Center for Economic and Management Research (CEMR) Price College of Business, at the University of Oklahoma produces the Oklahoma Monthly Retail Sales Series containing monthly estimates of retail sales for Oklahoma, the Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Lawton Metropolitan Statistical Areas and 48 selected cities in Oklahoma. The series is based on sales tax collection data provided by the Business Tax Division, Oklahoma Tax Commission (OTC). In order to take out monthly volatility, we have used a six-month moving average.

Current Developments Statewide retail spending sank for the second straight month in July, again pulled down by slumping sales at service stations due to lower pump prices. Total adjusted retail trade for July was at a level of $3.34 billion, a 2.5 percent decline from the revised June level of $3.43 billion. Over the year, total adjusted retail sales were 4.0 percent more from the July 2017 level of $3.22 billion. Excluding gasoline sales, total retail sales for July increased 0.2 percent over the month.

Total durable goods sales rose 0.4 percent in July as automobile accessories & repair sales gained 1.0 percent, sales at electronics & music stores grew 1.0 percent, and miscellaneous durables up 0.30 percent. Lumber and hardware and used merchandise sales were flat in July. Losses were in furniture (-0.12 percent).

Nondurable goods purchases sank 3.5 percent in July as the volatile estimated gasoline sales plunged 21.9 percent over the month. Other declining nondurable goods categories in July were food stores (-0.2 percent), and drugstores (-0.7 percent). Advancing nondurable categories in July were general merchandise stores (0.4 percent); eating & drinking places (0.2 percent); liquor stores (0.6 percent); and miscellaneous non-durable goods (0.1 percent). Apparel sales were flat for the month.

OKLAHOMA AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, 2017

Occupation Average Annual Wage

Percent

U.S. Code Occupation Title Oklahoma U.S. Average


00-0000 All Occupations $43,340 $50,620 85.62 11-0000 Management Occupations $96,580 $119,910 80.54 13-0000 Business and Financial Operations

Occupations $63,750 $76,330 83.52

15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations $69,560 $89,810 77.45 17-0000 Architecture and Engineering

Occupations $80,110 $86,190 92.95

19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

$65,490 $74,370 88.06

21-0000 Community and Social Services Occupations

$40,640 $48,050 84.58

23-0000 Legal Occupations $84,480 $107,370 78.68 25-0000 Education, Training, and Library

Occupations $40,160 $55,470 72.40

27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

$41,790 $58,950 70.89

29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

$70,390 $80,760 87.16

31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations $28,540 $31,310 91.15 33-0000 Protective Service Occupations $41,990 $47,190 88.98 35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving-Related

Occupations $21,130 $24,710 85.51

37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

$24,330 $28,930 84.10

39-0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations $23,350 $27,270 85.63 41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations $35,270 $40,680 86.70 43-0000 Office and Administrative Support

Occupations $34,590 $37,950 91.15

45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations

$30,190 $28,840 104.68

47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations $43,470 $49,930 87.06 49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Occupations $44,560 $47,870 93.09

51-0000 Production Occupations $37,670 $38,070 98.95 53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving

Occupations $35,550 $37,070 95.90

Sources: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, Research & Analysis Division, Occupational Employment Statistics Program and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, May 2018.

OKLAHOMA LONG-TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2016 - 2026

Industry Title

Employment Employment Change

2016 2026 Numeric Percent


Total Employment1 1,771,750 1,902,590 130,840 7.4 Goods-Producing 265,930 281,750 15,820 6.0

Natural Resources and Mining 59,870 69,120 9,250 15.5 Construction 77,380 87,980 10,600 13.7 Manufacturing 128,680 124,650 -4,030 -3.1

Services-Providing 1,405,890 1,511,980 106,100 7.6 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 306,720 322,920 16,210 5.3 Information 21,120 21,160 50 0.2 Financial Activities 78,740 83,320 4,590 5.8 Professional and Business Services 181,120 197,870 16,750 9.3 Education and Health Services 393,450 429,850 36,390 9.3 Leisure and Hospitality 186,620 212,790 26,170 14.0 Other Services (Except Government) 67,560 67,400 -160 -0.2 Government 170,560 176,670 6,120 3.6

Total Self-Employed Workers2 99,940 108,860 8,920 8.9

Self-Employed Workers 99,940 108,860 8,920 8.9

Agriculture3 15,740 16,910 1,170 7.5

Mining 44,130 52,210 8,080 18.3 Oil and Gas Extraction 20,920 23,970 3,050 14.6 Mining (except Oil and Gas) 2,170 2,370 200 9.1 Support Activities for Mining 21,040 25,880 4,840 23.0

Utilities 11,500 12,420 920 8.0

Construction 77,380 87,980 10,600 13.7 Construction of Buildings 14,320 15,960 1,640 11.4 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 15,410 18,980 3,560 23.1 Specialty Trade Contractors 47,650 53,050 5,400 11.3

Manufacturing 128,680 124,650 -4,030 -3.1 Food Manufacturing 15,120 15,280 160 1.1 Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 2,720 2,810 90 3.2 Textile Mills 140 110 -30 -18.5 Textile Product Mills 630 670 50 7.2

OKLAHOMA LONG-TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2016-2026

Industry Title




Apparel Manufacturing 790 510 -280 -35.2 Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing 260 230 -30 -12.6 Wood Product Manufacturing 2,190 2,350 160 7.1 Paper Manufacturing 2,900 2,600 -300 -10.4 Printing and Related Support Activities 2,390 1,810 -580 -24.3 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 2,330 2,270 -70 -2.9 Chemical Manufacturing 3,590 3,850 260 7.1 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 10,020 9,250 -770 -7.7 Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 7,530 8,060 540 7.1 Primary Metal Manufacturing 3,540 3,050 -490 -13.8 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 21,520 20,840 -690 -3.2 Machinery Manufacturing 25,740 24,410 -1,330 -5.2 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 4,370 3,850 -520 -12.0 Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing 3,020 3,230 210 7.1 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 14,390 14,090 -310 -2.1 Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 2,200 2,200 0 0.1 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 3,300 3,210 -90 -2.8

Wholesale Trade 58,360 59,890 1,530 2.6 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 27,160 27,550 390 0.2 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 21,300 21,340 40 0.2 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 9,890 11,000 1,110 11.2

Retail Trade 183,860 192,790 8,930 4.9 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 26,480 27,930 1,450 5.5 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 4,960 4,910 -50 -1.0 Electronics and Appliance Stores 5,760 6,170 410 7.1 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 17,200 18,080 890 5.2 Food and Beverage Stores 24,350 24,590 240 1.0 Health and Personal Care Stores 11,200 11,500 300 2.7 Gasoline Stations 17,760 20,900 3,140 17.7 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 11,780 12,190 410 3.5 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 7,030 7,580 550 7.9 General Merchandise Stores 44,440 45,670 1,240 2.8 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 10,610 10,800 190 1.8 Nonstore Retailers 2,300 2,460 160 7.1


Industry Title




Transportation and Warehousing 53,000 57,820 4,820 9.1 Air Transportation 5,950 6,120 160 2.7 Rail Transportation⁴ 2,410 2,410 0 0.0 Truck Transportation 18,590 19,110 520 2.8 Transit and Ground Passenger Transport 930 1,000 70 7.1 Pipeline Transportation 2,510 2,700 190 7.5 Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation 60 70 0 6.4 Support Activities for Transportation 6,460 7,760 1,310 20.2 Couriers and Messengers 4,710 4,860 150 3.1 Warehousing and Storage 11,370 13,800 2,430 21.4

Information 21,120 21,160 50 0.2 Publishing Industries 4,970 4,850 -120 -2.5 Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries 2,110 2,360 250 11.8 Broadcasting (except Internet) 2,930 2,590 -350 -11.8 Telecommunications 9,250 9,160 -90 -1.0 Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services 1,310 1,400 90 7.1 Other Information Services 540 810 260 48.4

Finance and Insurance 58,330 62,340 4,010 6.9 Monetary Authorities - Central Bank * * * * Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 32,340 34,640 2,300 7.1 Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities 4,470 4,790 320 7.1 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 21,440 22,820 1,380 6.5 Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles * * * *

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 20,410 20,990 580 2.8 Real Estate 11,760 12,150 390 3.3 Rental and Leasing Services 8,280 8,460 180 2.2 Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works) 360 370 10 2.8

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 69,170 76,870 7,700 11.1

Management of Companies and Enterprises 18,080 19,180 1,100 6.1


Industry Title




Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 93,870 101,820 7,950 8.5

Administrative and Support Services 90,440 98,280 7,840 8.7 Waste Management and Remediation Service 3,430 3,540 120 3.4

Educational Services 165,610 173,990 8,380 5.1

Health Care and Social Assistance 227,840 255,860 28,010 12.3 Ambulatory Health Care Services 73,130 87,000 13,860 19.0 Hospitals 84,720 88,060 3,340 3.9 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 35,170 37,670 2,500 7.1 Social Assistance 34,830 43,140 8,310 23.9

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 37,560 44,460 6,900 18.4 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries 2,780 2,960 180 6.6 Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions 1,210 1,500 280 23.3 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries⁵ 33,570 40,000 6,430 19.2

Accommodation and Food Services 149,060 168,330 19,270 12.9 Accommodation⁵ 15,130 17,980 2,850 18.8 Food Services and Drinking Places 133,930 150,360 16,430 12.3

Other Services (Except Government) 67,560 67,400 -160 -0.2 Repair and Maintenance 14,100 13,740 -370 -2.6 Personal and Laundry Services 12,250 13,120 870 7.1 Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations 39,790 39,120 -660 -1.7 Private Households 1,420 1,420 -10 -0.4

Government 170,560 176,670 6,120 3.6 Federal Government 48,110 47,530 -580 -1.2

Federal Government, Excluding Postal Service 41,350 41,810 460 1.1 Postal Service 6,770 5,730 -1,040 -15.4

State Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 35,970 33,990 -1,990 -5.5 Local Government, Excluding Casinos, Casino Hotels, Education and Hospitals 86,470 95,160 8,690 10.1

Source: Employment Projections Program, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, Economic Research and Analysis Division, July 2018.


Footnotes: ¹ Total employment includes covered and non-covered employment, agricultural employment and self-employed workers. Covered employment data are from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program from Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Non-covered employment data are average annual data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics program from Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Employment estimates have been rounded to the nearest 10. Percent change is based on unrounded data. ² Self-employed workers data are produced from the projection matrix system based on Oklahoma OES (Occupational Employment Statistics) survey and BLS Current Population Survey. ³ Employment data for Agriculture are from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey 2016 and QCEW program. ⁴ Employment data for Rail Transportation are from Railroad Retirement Board. ⁵ Employment data for Amusement, Gambling and Recreation Industries also includes casinos from Local Government. Employment data for Accommodation also includes casino hotels from Local Government. * Employment data is withheld to maintain data confidentiality.

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