oil & gas: frontier issues - international association for ... bank oil & gas: frontier...

Deutsche Bank

Oil & Gas: Frontier IssuesCompetition for New Supplies

IAEE 26th Annual Conference Prague 7 June 2003

Adam SieminskiDeutsche Bank

1 Deutsche Bank

Frontier Oil & Gas: Balancing the RisksFrontier Oil & Gas: Balancing the Risks

Deepwater GOM gas

Deep water average

Angola deep water

UK gas

Deep water Nigeria

Libya oil

Deep water GOM oil

Colombia

Caspian oil

Iran

Iraq

Venezuela oilRussia oil

Piped gas OPEC oil

Russia PSAOil sands

OPEC piped gas

LNGGas-to-liquids

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95

Chance of success (1-risk)

Full

cycl

e re

turn

(IR

R)

Exploration Development-led

Average

Source: Company reports; Deutsche Bank estimates

2 Deutsche Bank

Oil: Who Produces More Than One Million b/doeOil: Who Produces More Than One Million b/doe…super…super--majors lagging the national oil companies majors lagging the national oil companies

mmb/d

0

2

4

6

8

10Sa

udi A

ram

co

NIO

C (Ir

an)

Pem

ex

PDVS

A

Iraq

NO

C

Exxo

nMob

il

RD/S

hell

Petr

oChi

na

Chev

ronT

exac

o BP

Kuw

ait P

C

Luko

il

Tota

lFin

aElf

Adn

oc (U

AE)

Sona

trac

h

Liby

a N

OC

Petr

obra

s

Nig

eria

NPC

Cono

coPh

illip

s

Yuko

s

Pert

amin

a

Qat

ar P

etro

leum

Surg

utne

fteg

as Eni

Sino

pec

Gaz

prom

Oil Gas

Source: PIW; Deutsche Bank estimates

3 Deutsche Bank

Gas: Who Produces More Than One Million b/doeGas: Who Produces More Than One Million b/doe…national oil companies lagging the super…national oil companies lagging the super--majorsmajors

mmboe/d

0

2

4

6

8

10

Gaz

prom

Exxo

nMob

il

Sona

trac

h

RD/S

hell

BP

NIO

C (Ir

an)

Pem

ex

Pert

amin

a

Saud

i Ara

mco

Chev

ronT

exac

o

PDVS

A

Tota

lFin

aElf

Adn

oc (U

AE)

Cono

coPh

illip

s

Qat

ar Eni

Petr

obra

s

Petr

oChi

na

Surg

utne

fteg

as

Ana

dark

o

Kuw

ait P

C

Nig

eria

NPC

Liby

a N

OC

Luko

il

Iraq

NO

C

Sino

pec

Yuko

s

Gas Oil

Source: PIW; Deutsche Bank estimates

4 Deutsche Bank

NonNon--OPEC Production Grows Strongly this DecadeOPEC Production Grows Strongly this Decade…but political risk is rising with new market entries…but political risk is rising with new market entries

Source: IEA; Deutsche Bank estimates

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Rus

sia

Kaza

ksta

n

Braz

il

Azer

baija

n

Mex

ico

Ango

la

Chi

na

Cha

d

Can

ada

Suda

n

Nor

way

Arge

ntin

a

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Col

ombi

a

Egyp

t

Uni

ted

King

dom

Aust

ralia

1990-2000

2000-2010E

Incremental barrels mmb/d

5 Deutsche Bank

Russia, Azerbaijan and KazakhstanRussia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan…projected steady increases from the old Soviet frontiers…projected steady increases from the old Soviet frontiers

Source: IEA and US DOE/EIA (historical); Deutsche Bank estimates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1985

1988

1991

1998

2001

2004

E

2007

E

2010

E

mm

b/d

Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Russia

6 Deutsche Bank

Russia’s LongRussia’s Long--term Export Capabilityterm Export Capability...new fields, new pipelines...new fields, new pipelines

Sea ofOkhotsk

SakhalinIsland

Sea

LakeBaikal

NovayaZemlya

Sea

PechoraSea

KAZAKHSTAN

Ural

s

MOSCOW

SWEDEN

eRWAY

FINLAND

Kola

Baltic

NE

Caspian

RUS

ESTLATT

Sakhalin I & II Sakhalin I & II

Kharyaga Kharyaga

ShtokmanShtokman

Proposed pipelines

‘Grandfathered’ PSA

Listed for PSA terms

Proposed pipelines

‘Grandfathered’ PSA

Listed for PSA terms

Murmansk - 1mb/d Murmansk - 1mb/d

East Siberia - 1.0mb/d East Siberia - 1.0mb/d

China - 0.6mb/d China - 0.6mb/d


7 Deutsche Bank

Russia’s Export Capacity GrowthRussia’s Export Capacity Growth...no let...no let--up?up?

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Cap

acity

('00

0b/d

)

Russia Caspian Long-term Russia proposals


8 Deutsche BankSource: Deutsche Bank estimates, Wood Mackenzie

LUANDA

Ambriz

Marimba

Vicango

Xikomba

Andromede

Kissanje

Mondo

Batuque

Saxi

Mbulumbumba

KIZOMBA B

KIZOMBA A

Mavacola

Dikanza

Jasmim

Rosa

Lirio

Cravo

Orquidea

Pitangueira

Longa

Bengo

Plutonio

Galio Cromio

Lubi

GREATER PLUTONIO

Dalia

Platina

Tulipa

Camelia

Sapesapeiro

eas

Bananeira

Paladio

Cobalto

Nsiamfumu

Mavanga

Espadarte

Punja

Caco

Gazela

MorsaWest

Quissama

Golungo

Kumaoil

oil

oil

oil

oil

oil

oil

oil

oil

CHOCALHO

HUNGO

PAMBI COBO

IMPALA

PACASSA

BUFALO

KIAME

GIRASSOL

SEREIA

QUINFUQUENA

SAFUEIRO

MOKO MOTOBA

LIBWA

GCO

MWAMBE

ESSUNGO

CUNTALA

PINDA

SULELEWEST

TUBARAO

CAVALA

KINKASI

GANDA

MAKELEKESE

MUANDA

PAMBO

TSHIALA

OOMBO

PALANCA

RAIA

SAVELHA

ALBACOREBAGRE

CHOPA

ESTRELA

CALAFATES. SUELELE

LOMBO EAST

KIFUKU

CABECADE COBRA

LUMUENO

N. ZOMBO

LUANGO

QUINGUILA

IMPALA S.E.

KIABO

C-1

NUNCE SUD

E-1

CAAMA

LUANDAMU

TotalFinaElf

TotalFinaElf

BP

ChevronTexaco

ExxonMobil

Agip

BP

TotalFinaElf

SonangolExxonMobil

Sonangol

OpenUnder negotiation

Open

Sonangol

Canadian Nat. Res.

Sonangol

Sonangol

Chevron-Texaco

Open

ChevronTexaco

TotalFinaElf

TotalFinaElf

ChevronTexaco

Perenco

ChevronTexaco

Open

Sonangol

ChevronTexaco

TotalFinaElf

Open

Muanda-Banana

Block 2/92

Offshore

Block 32

Block 14

Block 31

Block 15

Block 34

Block 18

Block 16

Block 17

Block 33

Dalia-2

Dalia-1

Block 5

Block 19

FS

FSFS

FS

FST

FST

Block 1

2/85

FST

FST

FST

FST

FST

FST

Essungo

4-26

Block 4

Block 3

Block 6

4-24

Deepwater Angola Deepwater Angola -- Differentiated ResultsDifferentiated Results

Block 15 12 of first 14 wells discover 2 bn bbls of oil+, including Kizomba A & B. ExxonMobil 40%; BP 26.7%; Eni 20%; Statoil 13.3%

Greater Plutonio

First 2 wells make 2 oil discoveries.

Approval granted to BP (50% partner with Shell). Prequalifications out for an FPSO. First oil due 2005-06?.

Ultra-Deep - Block 31

Plutao was first discovery in Angolan ultra-deep and followed earlier Jupiter-1 disappointment. Rumoured to be heavy oil. Signature bonus: $330m. BP 27% ExxonMobil 25% Statoil 13% Marathon 10% TOTAL 5%


N'Demba drilled and expensed as dry hole. Signature bonus: $350m. Norsk Hydro 30%, ConocoPhillips 20%, Shell 15%, Petrobras 15%.


First well, Funge-1, rumoured dry hole.Signature bonus: $325m. ExxonMobil 45% TOTAL 15% Falcon Oil Holding 10% Naphtha 5% Petrogal 5%

‘Golden’ Block 17

13 of first 15 wells discover 3 bn bbls of oil+, including Girassol, Dalia, Rosa Lirio. Total 40%; ExxonMobil 20%; BP 16.7%; Statoil 13.3%; Norsk Hydro 10%


Rumoured 200-300 million barrel Gindungo find. Signature bonus: $250m. TOTAL 30% Prodev Int.20% ExxonMobil 15% Marathon 10% Petrogal 5%

9 Deutsche Bank

BiBi--Polar OPEC Production Growth for this DecadePolar OPEC Production Growth for this Decade…is this acceptable to Saudi Arabia?…is this acceptable to Saudi Arabia?

Source: IEA; Deutsche Bank estimates

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Iraq

Nig

eria

Iran

Kuw

ait

Vene

zuel

a

Alge

ria

Qat

ar

UAE

Liby

a

Indo

nesi

a

Saud

iAr

abia

1990-2000

2000-2010E

Incremental barrels mmb/d

10 Deutsche Bank

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

She

ll

Che

vron

Exx

on

TOTA

L

EN

I

Con

oco

Sta

toil

BH

P

Ana

dark

o BP

Cep

sa

Rep

sol

mm

b/d

Algeria Nigeria Iran Venezuela

Emerging OPEC: Big Volume Potential Emerging OPEC: Big Volume Potential ...but beware the quota conflict...but beware the quota conflict

Corporate expectations...new pressure(2002-07E)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Nigeria: quota, or onshore, or offshore?

Mb/d

Quota

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

11 Deutsche Bank

Iraq Has a Long and Volatile History, With Industry Iraq Has a Long and Volatile History, With Industry Decimated by Conflict Since 1980Decimated by Conflict Since 1980

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1925 1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997

No. o

f Wel

l Com

plet

ions

Exploration Appraisal

Kirkuk field discovered

Iran-Iraq War

Gulf War& Sanctions

IPC Formation

Revolution

INOC

Nationalisation

Source: Wood Mackenzie

12 Deutsche Bank

Saddam and Iraq Saddam and Iraq -- Back to the 1970s?Back to the 1970s?

Source: US DOE, IEA, Deutsche Bank estimates

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

E

2004

E

Production mmb/d Wellhead Capacity mmb/d

mmb/d

Saddam in Ba'ath party cabinet

1970s

'96 Oil for Food starts

'91 Desert Storm 4

days

'90 Gulf War… Saddam invades Kuw ait

'80 Saddam takes pow er… and invades Iran

Iran-Iraq w ar,ceasefire '88

Oil as w eapon

13 Deutsche Bank

Oil Production Supported by ReservesOil Production Supported by Reserves…OPEC produces below its potential compared to non…OPEC produces below its potential compared to non--OPEC countriesOPEC countries

Source: Oil & Gas Journal; BP; IEA; Deutsche Bank estimates

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Production (mmb/d)

Res

erve

s (b

illio

n bb

l)

OPEC Non-OPEC

Iraq case 2

Iraq now

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Iran

USA

Current Iraqi reserves would support production near 3.5mmb/d and as much as 6mmb/d in a high reserves case

Mexico

14 Deutsche Bank

Production is Likely to be Constrained by OPEC Production is Likely to be Constrained by OPEC ...4 million b/d is a reasonable expectation...4 million b/d is a reasonable expectation

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Pro

duct

ion

('000

b/d

) Iraq - UnconstrainedIran - Quota + 2%

Source: Wood Mackenzie

15 Deutsche Bank

Venezuela Production Has Been VolatileVenezuela Production Has Been Volatile…slipping on investment cutback and quotas…slipping on investment cutback and quotas

…rising after first strike, but devastated by second strike…rising after first strike, but devastated by second strike

Source: IEA, Deutsche Bank

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000Ja

n-95

Jul-9

5

Jan-

96

Jul-9

6

Jan-

97

Jul-9

7

Jan-

98

Jul-9

8

Jan-

99

Jul-9

9

Jan-

00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

1,00

0 b/

d

April coup attempt

Challenge to the Saudis comes to a head in Jakarta Post-coup make-up, heavy oil

projects rise strongly

Strikes take January to 0.6mmb/d

Chavez elected Dec. 1998, OPEC cooperation

OPEC cuts, low oil investment, 25% decline rates

OPEC quotas up… then downPDVSA flouts OPEC quotas

and boosts production with help of foreign companies

16 Deutsche Bank

Where Is LNG? Global Supply: Two Regional BasinsWhere Is LNG? Global Supply: Two Regional Basins

USA AlaskaKenai

TrinidadAtlantic

Venezuela

NigeriaBonny

Angola

AlgeriaArzew,Skikda

Abu DhabiDas Island

QatarNorth Field

Yemen

LibyaMarsa-el-Brega

ArunIndonesia

Australia-North West Shelf

AustraliaDarwin

Brunei - LumutMalaysia - BintuluIndonesia Bontang

RussiaSakhalin

IndonesiaTangguh

Egypt

Oman

Snøhvit

AustraliaGorgon

Iran

Probable Greenfield Projects

Possible Greenfield Projects

Existing LNG Plants/Expansions

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data, Wood Mackenzie

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Atlantic Basin Demand Pacific Basin Demand

Mt

199019952000200520102015

6% AAGR 2000-200517% AAGR

2000-2005

17 Deutsche Bank

LNG is Cost CompetitiveLNG is Cost Competitive... and there is 1000 TCF... and there is 1000 TCF

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Trinidad Expansions

Nigeria Expansions

Venezuela

Henry Hub Average 1993-2003

Algeria

Abu Dhabi

Qatar Rasgas Expansions

Henry Hub Forecast 2003-2006

Indonesia Bontang I

Qatar Rasgas first trains

Angola Greenfield

Oman expansions

Nigeria Greenfield

Egypt LNG

Iran

Alaska Gas Pipeline

Norway Snoevhit

$ per mmbtu Henry Hub equivalent

Upstream at 15% Pipe Plant Shipping to Lake Charles Regas.

Source: Company data; Deutsche Bank estimates

18 Deutsche Bank

Exploration SuccessExploration Success...boom and bust since 1995...boom and bust since 1995

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E

1995

-200

2 re

serv

es d

isco

vere

d (m

mbo

e)

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

Expl

orat

ion

spen

ding

($m

)

Azerbaijan Gulf of Mexico Latin America - AtlanticNorth Africa Norway / Europe Southern ConeUK North Sea West Africa Asia / AustralasiaKazakhstan Exploration Spending


19 Deutsche Bank

19951995--2002 2002 -- Who Were the Key Explorers?Who Were the Key Explorers?

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1995

-200

2 re

sere

vs d

isco

vere

d (m

mbo

e)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Equi

vale

t res

erve

rep

lace

men

t (%

)

Asia / Australasia Azerbaijan Gulf of MexicoKazakhstan Latin America - Atlantic North AfricaNorway / Europe Southern Cone UK North SeaWest Africa Equivalent reserve replacement (%)

Majors' aggregate reserve replacement


20 Deutsche Bank

Growth Plans Reflect New Pragmatism on Cost and PaceGrowth Plans Reflect New Pragmatism on Cost and Pace…spending back at mid…spending back at mid--90s’ levels but for lower growth90s’ levels but for lower growth

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1995E 1996E 1997E 1998E 1999E 2000E 2001E 2002E 2003E 2004E

E&P

cape

x ($

m)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Gro

wth

rate

exp

ecta

tion

Capex 5 year growth target

Industry growth expectations have fallen...but spending has increased


21 Deutsche Bank

Intense Competition for New Upstream HubsIntense Competition for New Upstream Hubs…global options for the largest players, scale risk for mid…global options for the largest players, scale risk for mid--capscaps

Middle East

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

Russia

West Africa

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

SE Asia/ Australasia

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

Caspian

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

North America

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

Europe &North Africa

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

Latin America

Unr

iske

d

Ris

ked

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Conventional Oil

Deepwater

Gas to liquids

LNG

New piped gas

Oil Sands

Rem

aini

ng

cape

x ($

m)

Key

$ B

n

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

OPEC pipe

d gas

Other p

iped g

as LNG

Deepw

ater

OPEC conv

entio

nal o

ilCas

pian O

ilRus

sian O

ilOil S

ands

GTLOthe

r Oil

Global Total


22 Deutsche Bank

New Battlegrounds for New Legacy ProvincesNew Battlegrounds for New Legacy Provinces....different appetites for politics, costs and returns....different appetites for politics, costs and returns

$315bn of Growth Opportunities$315bn of Growth Opportunities

2002-2012E, brackets show weighted IRR

Other Oil(17.7%)Caspian Oil

(21.1%)

Russian Oil(19.1%)

Deepwater(25.1%)

Oil Sands(17%)

OPEC conventional oil

(15.0%)

GTL(13.0%)

LNG(15.5%)

Other piped gas(16.2%)

OPEC piped gas(14.5%)

‘Risked’‘Risked’


23 Deutsche Bank

Global Upstream: Opportunity Rich to Meet DeclinesGlobal Upstream: Opportunity Rich to Meet Declines

Qatar• Huge gas reserves

provide secret of Exxon’sreserves replacement?

Qatar• Huge gas reserves

provide secret of Exxon’sreserves replacement?

China• West East decision in 2003?

China• West East decision in 2003?

North Sea• Will ExxonMobil rationalise

Mobil legacy in 2003?

North Sea• Will ExxonMobil rationalise

Mobil legacy in 2003?

Canada• Were Sable Island exploration

results disappointing?

Canada• Were Sable Island exploration

results disappointing?

West Africa• Strong progress• OPEC limitations?

West Africa• Strong progress• OPEC limitations?

Sakhalin

Sakhalin gets sanction for 2005/6 oil,but will Japanese LNG utilities feelthreatened by Exxon’s gas pipeline?

Sakhalin

Sakhalin gets sanction for 2005/6 oil,but will Japanese LNG utilities feelthreatened by Exxon’s gas pipeline?

PNG pipeline

Low returns, why bother?

PNG pipeline

Low returns?

Production

Exploration

Key new areas

Exploration• US, Angola, Malaysia, Nigeria• Deepwater disappointments?

Exploration• US, Angola, Malaysia, Nigeria• Deepwater disappointments?

Saudi Arabia• Core Venturedecision 2003?

Saudi Arabia• Core Venturedecision 2003?

• Where’s theAtlantic Basin LNG?

• Where’s theAtlantic Basin LNG?

Mackenzie Delta pipeline gas• Commitment in 2003?

Mackenzie Delta pipeline gas• Commitment in 2003?

More Russia?More Russia?

Potential new plays - or exitsPotential new plays - or exits

Successful future production hub developmentSuccessful future production hub development


24 Deutsche Bank

Capital Recycling Credentials Well EstablishedCapital Recycling Credentials Well Established

Algeriaa oilVenezuela

North SeaNorth Sea

Colombia

PanAmerican

Alaska

Pakistan

An Arcofailure...sell out?

An Arcofailure...sell out?

Infrastructure deals for gaswith Norway… Forties exit,

SNS gas exit

Infrastructure deals for gaswith Norway… Forties exit,

SNS gas exit Arco andAmoco assetswith littleupside

Arco andAmoco assetswith littleupside

Sell

Infrastructure plays

Lower 48gas...more to comeafter Apache?

Lower 48gas...more to comeafter Apache?

GOM deep waterTrinidad

for Colombia

JDA swapped withAmerada Hessfor Colombia

Sold 2003

Core growth area

ACG

Angolaa

New Co


25 Deutsche Bank

Shell’s Upstream OptionsShell’s Upstream Options

NORTH SEA

UK rationalism

Norway gas deals

NORTH SEA

UK rationalisationNorway gas deals

ASIA PACIFIC

Push for claim andRussia gas

FLNG Australia?

ASIA PACIFIC

Push for China andRussia gas

FLNG Australia?

OMAN

Negotiating PPO extension tojustify waterfloods

OMAN

Negotiating PDO extension tojustify water-floods

US LNG

Working on importsolutions for US LNG(Mexico/US)

US LNG

Working on importsolutions for US LNG(Mexico/US)

NorwayGas

Kazakstan SakhalinLNG

DeepwaterMalaysia

Gorgon LNG

Sunrise LNG

Iran

Nigeria and Angoladeepwater NLNG

VenezuelaLNG

New hub

Potential new hub Infill deals

PerdidoexplorationUS LNG imports

Canada oil sands


26 Deutsche Bank

The Growth in Capital Employed Can BeThe Growth in Capital Employed Can Be AccretiveAccretive

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.02003/07E Production CAGR (%)

Wei

ghte

d IR

R o

f new

ups

tream

gro

wth

pro

ject

s (%

)

Book RoACE, adjusted for exploration

CROCI, adjusted for exploration

cost of capital


27 Deutsche Bank

Oil and NGL Reserves in North AmericaOil and NGL Reserves in North America…Mexico’s mysterious mesa and Canada’s quantum leap…Mexico’s mysterious mesa and Canada’s quantum leap

020406080

100120140160180200

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Bill

ion

barre

ls

Mexico USA Canada

Alaska

Mexico upgrades on combination of discoveries and financial crisis, then downgrades on stricter

engineering

Canada adds 175b bbls of oil sands bitumen

Source: BP, Oil & Gas Journal

28 Deutsche Bank

Crude Oil Reserves over Time in Key OPEC NationsCrude Oil Reserves over Time in Key OPEC Nations…have some of the reserves been politically motivated?…have some of the reserves been politically motivated?

Source: BP, Oil & Gas Journal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Billio

n ba

rrel

s

Saudi

Iraq

UAE

Kuw ait

Iran

Venezuela

What basis?

29 Deutsche Bank

World Conventional Crude Oil Endowment World Conventional Crude Oil Endowment …a lot left to find…a lot left to find

732

710

891

688

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Cumulat iveProduct ion

ProvenReserves

ReservesGrowth

Discovered Und isco veredConventional

Remaining To talEndowment

Billio

n ba

rrel

s

Source: USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000

Energy StrategyAdam Sieminski (44 207) 545-1202

US IndependentsJay Saunders (1 212) 469-2998

US Exploration & ProductionJohn Bailey (1 212) 469-4616Neil Brown (1 212) 469-8163Jeff Wyll (1 212) 469-8084

Oil Services & EquipmentMichael Urban (1 212) 469-3113Thomas Rinaldi (1 212) 469-5696

Marketing AnalystsSam Fennell (44 207) 547-5528Jennifer Gordon (44 207) 547-5527Mark Hastings (1 212) 469-8636

US & European OilsJJ Traynor * (44 131) 240-7648 Caroline Cook * (44 131) 240-7642 Nick Aldridge (44 131) 240-7641Nick Griffin (44 131) 240-7645Mohan Mandrekar (1 212) 469-5073Paul Sankey (44 131) 240-7646Al Stanton (44 131) 240-7647

Australia/Asia/S. AfricaJohn Hirjee (61 39) 270-4318David Hurd (852) 2203-6242Johan Rode (27 11) 775-7268

Latin AmericaCarlos de Leon (44 207) 545-7855

Emerging Europe/RussiaKrisztina Kovacs (44 207) 547-7905Leonid Mirzoyan (7095) 797-5196

Deutsche BankGlobal Oil & Gas Research

* Co-heads of global team

31 Deutsche Bank

Always Read the Fine PrintAlways Read the Fine Print…accurate forecasting is a tough business…accurate forecasting is a tough business

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