oil and gas supply-demand scenarios for europe up to 2030 manfred hafner observatoire...
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OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE
UP TO 2030
Manfred HafnerObservatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie
NEEDS Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to
the Extraction and Transport of Energy”
NEEDS Forum 2Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues
Krakow, 5-6 July 2007
Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extraction
and transport energy”
OIL
NATURAL GAS
ELECTRICITY
HYDROGEN
Supply/Demand scenariosFlows & RoutesCritical passagesNew technology & regulationBurdensImpactsRisk AnalysisEconomic valuation
Gas Supplies to EU-15
Algeria4520
U.K. 700 Netherlands1800
Libya1310
Iran23000
Qatar 14400
Russia48100
6,000 km
Turkmenistan2860
4,000 km2,000 km
Abu Dhabi6000
Norway3000
Nigeria3510
Egypt1660
Trinidad 330
Venezuela 4000
Oman800
N2005eCons. 502 bcm
Imports 290 bcm
NE
126 bcm Russia43%
S
78 bcm Norway27%
SE
7 bcm Gulf2%
SEMCs 68 bcm (23%)56 bcm Algeria
6 bcm Libya6 bcm Egypt
Other Africa11 bcm Nigeria (4%)
2005e*: Gas Supply to EU-25
Source: OME, May 2006 * first 2005 estimates
*Baseline scenario ‘’European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004’’
EU-25 Gas Demand (by sector)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Industry
Bcm
Power
R&C
=> Driven mainly by power generation
126
125
287
240
423
707
172
180
2.8%/y
1.2%/y
1.1%/y
Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030
Power sector57%
Industrial sector13%
Services6%
Households18%
District heat & other
6%
Source: EC DG TREN
Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030
Industrial sector13%
Services6%
Households18%
District heat & other
6%
Primarily competing against oil and electricity for space heating.Substitution effect not as strong as income effect
High energy prices more likely to induce energy efficiency improvements
High energy prices more likely to induce energy efficiency improvements
Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030
Power sector57%
Competing against coal, nuclear & renewablesSubstitution effect stronger than income effect
Largest source of gas demand growth is the most sensitive to higher energy
prices!!
Largest source of gas demand growth is the most sensitive to higher energy
prices!!
Gas Demand forecasts for Europe,(in 2000, 2002, 2004 & 2006)
GasGas DemandDemand forecastsforecasts for Europefor Europe,,(in 2000, 2002, 2004 & 2006)(in 2000, 2002, 2004 & 2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2002 2010 2020 2030
WEO 2006
TOTAL
NON-POWER
POWER
WEO 2004
WEO 2002
WEO 2000
WEO 2006
WEO 2004
WEO 2002
WEO 2000
WEO 2000
WEO 2006WEO 2002WEO 2004
Mtoe
Source: IEA, WEO 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006
EU-25 Natural Gas Imports
* Strongly increasing gas import requirements* High uncertainty due to development in: - demand - domestic production
Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004
MAIN GAS REGIONS FOR EUROPEAN SUPPLY
NORTH AFRICA : Algeria, Libya, Egypt
NORTH SEA :Norway
RUSSIA
THE CASPIAN AREA AND CENTRAL ASIA: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
THE GULF : Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Yemen
WEST AFRICA : Nigeria, Angola
SOUTH AMERICA : Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela
Future gas export potential for Europe
LIBYAEGYPT
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
ALGERIA
RUSSIA196
166
139
100 95 94 81
57 81 110 115
5 12 25 38 5 23 28 28
5 20 3535
7 44 68 88
1313
11213845
W. A
FRICA
NORWAY
QATAR/ UAE/ OMAN/ YEMEN
207
AZERB.
304 bcm
447 bcm
619 bcm
695 bcm
2005
2010
2020
2030
IRAQ
1666
T&T + VENEZ.
LIBYAEGYPT
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
ALGERIA
RUSSIA and Central Asia196
166
139
100 95 94 81
57 81 110 115
5 12 25 38 5 23 28 28
5 20 3535
7 44 68 88
1313
11213845
W. A
FRICA
NORWAY
QATAR/ UAE/ OMAN/ YEMEN
207
AZERB.
304 bcm
447 bcm
619 bcm
695 bcm
2005
2010
2020
2030
304 bcm
447 bcm
619 bcm
695 bcm
2005
2010
2020
2030
IRAQ
1666
T&T + VENEZ.
Algeria : Gas Export Projects
ALGER
Hassi R’Mel
In Amenas
Skikda
-
EMG
PDFG
ALGERIA
MOROCCO
TUNISIA
SPAIN PORTUGAL
ITALIY
SICILY
Algeria-Italy
Enrico Mattei Gasline (EMG, ex-Transmed)
25 to 31 bcm LNG Algeria
27 to 38 bcm
Algeria-Spain (Medgaz)
8 to 16 bcm
Pedro Duran Farell Gasline (PDFG, ex-GME)
11.5 to 18-20 bcm
Algeria-Italy via Sardinia Corsica
(Galsi)
8 to 16 bcm
LNG (G.Touil)
5 bcm
Existing Gaslines
Gasline Projects
Existing LNG Plant
LNG Plant Projects
-
TSGPNigeria-Algeria to Europe
In Salah
TegentourReg
Ahnet
Arzew
BeniSaf
Algeria Export Gas Capacities
Export gas infrastructure
2004 2010 2020 2030
EMG & Expansion (ex-Transmed)
25 27 31 31
PDFG & Expansion (ex-GME)
11.5 18 18 20
LNG Plants & Expansion 27.5 38 38 43
Medgaz Pipeline Project 8 16 16
Galsi Pipeline Project 16 16
TOTAL 64 91 119 125
R.Nouss
TFTOhanet
Hamra
Source: OME, May 2006
Source: OME, May 2006
ALGER
Arzew
Skikda
-Marsat El Braga
Zelten
Hatiba
EMG, ex-Transmed
ALGERIA
LIBYA
MOROCCO
TUNISIA
SPAIN PORTUGAL
ITALIY
TRIPOLI
Wafa
Bassin de Ghadames
SICILE
Bouri
LNG Libya1 to 9-14 bcm
Libya-Italy(Greenstream)
8 to 16-24 bcm
Existing Gaslines
Gasline Projects
Existing LNG Plant
LNG Plant Projects
Libya-Tunisia2 bcm
Hassi R’Mel
Libya Gas Export Capacities (bcm)
Export gas infrastructure 2005 2010 2020 2030
LNG Plant & Expansion
1 4 9 14
Libya to Tunisia Gasline
2 2 2
Greenstream 8 8 16 24
TOTAL of the projects 9 14 27 40
LIBYA : Gas Export Projects
Egypt : Gas Export Projects
DamiettaSEGAS (UFG)
2x6.9 bcm
Gasline ProjectsExisting Gaslines
Existing LNG PlantLNG Plant Projects
Taba
Capacities of Egypt Gas Export Projects (bcm)
Source : Petroleum Economist & OME, May 2006
Trans Machrek Pipeline
3 to 10 bcm
IdkuELNG (BG)3x4.8 bcm
* these figures refer to possible projects but which are not counted in the total
2004 2005 2010 2020 2030
SEGAS (Union Fenosa, ENI) at Damietta
- 6.9 2x6.9 2x6.9 2x6.9
ELNG (BG/Petronas/GdF) at Idku
- 2x4.8 2x4.8 3x4.8 3x4.8
LNG (Shell) 5.2* 5.2* 5.2*
Trans Machrek pipeline 1.1 1.1 3 5 (10*)
10
TOTAL of projects 1.1 18 26 33 38
SCANDINAVIAN GAS NETWORK : EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES
TALLINNSTOCKHOLM
COPENHAGEN
SWEDENNORWAY
FINLAND
Shtokmanovskoye
Haltenbanken
ATS
Troll
Yamal - Europe
Fra
np
ipe
Eu
rop
ipe
II
Eu
rop
ipe
I
DENMARK
Existing Gas Pipeline
Gas Pipeline Project
No
rpip
e
Eastern axe 45 bcm
Norpipe 11 bcm
Europipe I 13 bcm
Europipe II 21 bcm
Western axe 28 bcm
Zeepipe 13 bcm
Franpipe 15 bcm
Frigg Frigg/Vesterled
13 bcm
Asgard fields/ ATS
21 bcm
Snohvit
Nord Stream
27-55 bcm
Ze
epip
e
Ormen Lange
Ormen Lange/Britpipe22 bcm
Easington
Bacton
NE
GP
HELSINKI
BBL 20 bcm
Shtockman LNG
23 bcmSnohvit LNG
6-11 bcm
Murchison
Balgzand
Isle of Grain
5/10
Source: OME, May 2006
Norwegian Gas Export Capacity (bcm/yr) CAPACITY 2004 2010 2020 2030Existing Mainland Europe: Europipe I 13 13 13 13Europipe II 21 21 21 21Franpipe 16 16 16 16Norpipe 11 11 11 11Zeepipe I 13 13 13 13UK Frigg/Vesterled 13 13 13 13
sub-total 87 87 87 87under construction LNG Snovhit 6 6 10Ormen Lange Gas Pipe/Britpipe to 22 22 22 Easington (UK)Use of existing UKCS infrastructure 10 10 10
Total Capacity 87 125 125 129
RUSSIA : EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES
YAM
AL
WARSAW
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
BovanenkoBARENTS
SEA
BALTIC SEA
Yamal - Europe
Yamal I- Europe 29 to 32 bcm
Yamal II - Europe+32 bcm
HELSINKI
TALLINN
St Petersburg
TYUMEN
UKRAINE
MINSK
Urengoy
MOSCOW
Blue Stream 16 bcm
Shtokmanovskoye
STOCKHOLM
North
ern
Route
Centra
l Route
Souh
ern
Route
Shtokmanovskoye Europe Baltic Pipeline
18-35 bcm
Kondratki
Izmail
Uzhgorod New Transit Line
through Ukraine 28 bcm
Shtockman LNG
23 bcm
Nord Stream
Gas Pipeline
27-55 bcm
Aleksandrov-Gay
Novopskov
Yamal LNG
25 bcm
* This capacity is less likely and has not been included in the Total.
CAPACITY OF RUSSIAN GAS EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE to EUROPE
Source: OME, May 2006
CAPACITY 2004 2010 2020 2030I - Existing Pipelines Uzhgorod (Ukraine/Slovakia) 100 100 100 100Beregovo (Ukraine/Hungary) 15 15 15 15Khust (Ukraine/Romania) 5 5 5 5Izmail (Ukraine/Roumania) 28 40 40 40Brest (Belarus/Poland) 6 6 6 6Khodnovichi (Ukraine/Poland) 5 5 5 5Yamal-Europe Kondratki (Belarus/Poland, 1st line) 23 32 32 32lmatra (Finland) 9 9 9 9Blue Stream (Turkey) 16 16 16 16TOTAL (FIRM +CONSTRUCTION) * 207 228 228 228II- Planned/Potential Developments & Expansions Yamal-Europe Kondratki (Poland) II-new (16)* (32)* (32)*North European Gas Pipeline 27,5 55 55TOTAL to EUROPE * (Existing +Planned /Potential) 207 256 283 283III- Planned/Potential to other markets (US & Asia)Export LNG (Shtockman Murmansk LNG) to US 23 23Export LNG (Yamal LNG) to US 25Export LNG (Ust Luga LNG) to Canada 5 5Export LNG Sakhalin1 (to Asia) 13 13Export LNG Sakhalin2 (to Asia) 13 13 26Pipeline to Asia (China, Korea, Japan...) 40 80GLOBAL EXPORT Capacity from RUSSIA 207 269 377 455
Russia: important gas import potential from Central Asia
AZERBAIJAN
OME, Sept 2005
South Eastern European gas pipeline projects
TGI
Nabucco
Blue Stream
South Stream
Nabucco
North Field
Amman
DAMASCUS Homs
Aleppo
Ceyhan
Ankara
ISTANBUL
RIYADHMUSCAT
ABU DHABI
SAUDI ARABIA
OMAN
UAE
QATAR
Basra
BAGHDAD
BAHRAIN
KUWAIT
Yanbu
Kayseri
Sur
Izmir
Port Said Alexandria
Marmara
TURKEY
Dubai
Sohar
Das Island Dolphin Project
Gulf: LNG Export Projects
Assaluyeh
2005 by 2010- 2012
Countries Existing LNG
LNG Projects
Total cap.
of which to
Atlantic Basin
QATAR 34 69 103 54
UAE 8 4 12 3
OMAN 10 5 15 3
IRAN 27 27 20
TOTAL 51 112 156 81
Cap. (Mt/y)
Qatargas I (tr.1, 2&3) 9.6
Qatargas II Tr4&5 (ExxonM to UK) 15.6Qatargas III Tr7(Conocco to US) 7.5
Rasgas I (tr.1&2) 6.6Rasgas II (tr. 3 &4) 9.4
Rasgas II Tr6-7(ExxonM to US) 15.6
Source: OME, May 2006
Cap. (Mt/y)
Iran LNG (BP/Reliance India) 9
Pars LNG (Total/Petronas) 10
NIOC LNG (BG/ENI) 9
Persian LNG (Shell/Repsol) 9
Rasgas II (new tr. 5) 4.7
Qatargas IV Tr8(Conocco to US) 7.8
Cap. (Mt/y)
Das Island (1, 2 &3) 5.7
Das Island (Tr.4) 3.3
Cap. (Mt/y)
Oman LNG (Tr.1& 2) 7.0
Oman LNG (Tr.3) 3.3
bcm/yr
GAS CORRIDORS TO EUROPE
Oil Supplies to EU25
Source: OME, 2006
N2005Consumption 670 Mt
Gross Imports 627 Mt
NE
222 Mt Russia
36%
S
99 Mt Norway16%
SE
137 Mt Gulf
22%SEMCs 107 Mt (18%)29 Mt Algeria65 Mt Libya 3 Mt Egypt10 Mt Syria
Other Africa 44 Mt (7%)
17 Mt Amer.
4%
EU-25 Oil Imports
Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004
EU Oil Import scenario (in Mb/d)
Reference Case
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
NORWAY
RUSSIA
AMERICACASPIAN
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2010 2020 2030
Source:OME
Imports to Europe
2004: 11.6 Mb/d
AFRICA19%
AMERICA3%
CASPIAN4%
MIDDLE EAST23%NORWAY
20%
RUSSIA31%
2030: 12.6 Mb/d
AFRICA32%
AMERICA0%
CASPIAN11%
MIDDLE EAST26%
NORWAY2%
RUSSIA29%
Seaborne trade to increase
from 85% to 89%
Africa
Export Potential (Mb/d)
AlgeriaLibya
Angola
Nigeria
Other Africa
Egypt02468
10121416
2004 2010 2020 2030
Middle East
Export Potential (Mb/d)
IranIraq
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Turkmenistan Qatar
Other ME
05
1015
2025
3035
2004 2010 2020 2030
Qatar Kuwait
Caspian
Export Potential (Mb/d)
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004 2010 2020 2030
NORWAY
Demand
Export Potential
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2004 2010 2020 2030
RUSSIA
Demand
Export Potential
0123456789
101112
2004 2010 2020 2030
EU Crude Oil Imports by Transport Mode, 2004
North
Med
0
100
200
300
400
500
Ship Pipe Non Specified
Mill
ion
tonn
es
85%
15%
0.2%
EU crude oil imports by transport mode
EU Crude Oil Imports by transport mode (ref. case)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2010 2020 2030
Pipeline
Med. Ports
Atlantic Ports
Future evolution of EU crude oil imports by transport mode
EU Crude Oil Imports Flows – Summary 2004 Base Case (Mt)
N. America
L. America9
13
6
3
0.7
5
3417
4
36
44
35
20 95
22
30
5178
28
14
1074
5
Atlantic Med.Export
Import
Pipeline
256
Other Africa 19
8
79
46A
M
Caspian
10 13
Gulf
60 70
31
0.2
8
0.6
1
139
5675
23
65
54
23 65
25
30
8274
65
12
58
Atlantic Med.Export
Import
Pipeline
3
61
Other Africa 23
16
84
33A
M
Caspian
21 35
Gulf
55 105
3
Major EU Crude Oil Import Routes, 2030 (Mt), Major EU Crude Oil Import Routes, 2030 (Mt), REF CASEREF CASE
14
9
L. America
0.2
1
0.2
EU Oil Imports (2004)
EU Heavy Fuel Imports by Type and Case
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 Low Case 2030 High Case 2030
Mt
Pipeline
Mediterranean
Atlantic
European Oil maritime routes
Source: ITOPF
Hot spots: the Ras Tanura –Rotterdam routePrimorsk
Leningrad Oblast (Russia)
Population (2002): 1669205
Area: 84500 kmqFrench Finistére
Bretagne (France)
Population (2004): 3020885
Area: 27208 kmq
Dover Strait
Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France)
Populaion (2004): 4027706
Area: 12414 kmq
South East England
Population (2004): 8095261
Area: 19096 kmq
Spanish Finistere
Galicia (Spain)
Population (2004): 2706126
Area: 29574 kmq
Ras Tanura
Eastern Province (Saudi Arabia)
Population (2004): 3360157
Area: 710000 kmq
Suez Canal
Egypt Regions around the Suez Canal
Population (2004): 1816200
Area: 22321 kmq
Nabeul Governorate
(Tunisia)
Population (2004): 694000
Area: 2788 kmq
Sicily Strait
Sicily
Population (2004): 5013081
Area: 25710 kmq
Tangier-Tétouan
(Morocco)
Population(2005): 2470372
Area: 11570 kmq
Gibraltar Strait
Andalusia (Spain)
Population(2005):7552978
Area: 87599kmq
Hot spots: the Novorossisk – Augusta route
Novorossisk
Kraj di Krasnodar (Russia)
Population (2004): 5125221
Area: 83600 kmq
Bosphorus
Istambul (Turkey)
Populaion (2005):
10018735
Area: 5170 kmq
Kocaeli (Turkey)
Population (2005): 1206085
Area: 3635 kmq
Aegean sea
Northern Aegean
Population (2004): 206000
Area: 3836 kmq
Southern Aegean
Population
(2004): 302000
Area: 5286 kmq
Augusta
Sicily
Population (2004): 5013081
Area: 25710 kmq
Crete
Population (2004): 601000
Area: 8336 kmq
Results of externality values associated to the fuel chain up to the EU border ready by September 2007
Operational externalities (extraction and transport)Accidental/probabilistic externalities (extraction and transport)
The NEEDS project does not specifically target “security of supply” issues, but rather “environmental externalities”
Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extractions and transport energy”
WP1. Methodological developmentsDefinition of concepts and general methodology of the project
WP7. Stakeholders consultations and dissemination
WP5. Models and tools by energy source
WP4. Quantitative global models - Long term energy scenarios based on policy lines- Adaptation of the POLES model to include risk assessment- Development of energy risks assessment model (ERA)- Quantitative analysis of policy recommendations
WP3. Long term policy linesQualitative analysis of energy policy
options and scenarios for the EU
WP2. Value of energy security Estimation of consumers’ risk aversion
and willingness to pay for security
WP6. Results and policy recommendations
5.1. Oil
5.2. Natural gas
5.3. Coal
5.4. Nuclear
5.5. Renewable energy sources
5.6. Electricity
5.7. Impact of accidents and terrorist threats
- External supply
- Internal supply
- Geopolitical risks
- Technical risks
- Economic & regulatory risks
5.8. Demand dimension of energy security
SECURE project proposal FP7: Security of Energy
Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications