of ent business - fraser · 2018. 11. 6. · volume 18 number 7 united states department of...

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JULY 1938

UOF

y

ENT BUSINESS

UNITED STATESDEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEBUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE

WASHINGTONVOLUME 18 NUMBER 7

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

during the first 6 months of 1938 were less favorable than in 1937.

The unfavorable trend was reflected in a continued recession in the

national income, but the rate of decline showed definite signs of slack-

ening after January of this year. The decline in primary business activity

since December has been relatively moderate, in contrast to the abrupt

curtailment in the final months of 1937. A review of business develop-

ments in the first half of 1938 is presented on page 3.

Toward the end of the second quarter some of the more sensitive busi-

ness indicators turned upward. Stock prices rallied sharply and sensitive

commodity prices were bid up. Government expenditures, which are

expected to have a stimulating effect on numerous lines, were being

pushed toward the end of the period under review. The resumption of

the forward movement in construction activity was one of the brighter

spots in the general business picture.

New Subscription Hate

The Superintendent of Documents announced that the annual subscrip-

tion rates to the Survey of Current Business, including the monthly and

weekly issues, have been advanced. Rates now in effect are as follows:

D o m e s t i c . . . . . . $ 2 . 0 3

F o r e i g n . . . . . . $ 3 . 5 0


Volume 18 Number 7

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEDANIEL C. ROPER, Secretary

BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCEALEXANDER V. DYE, Director

SURVEY OF

CURRENT BUSINESSJULY 1938

Prepared in the

DIVISION OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

LOWELL J. GHAWNER, In ChargeM. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Editor

WALTER F. GROWDER, Acting Editor

CONTENTS

CHARTS AND SUMMARIESPage

Business indicators 2Summary of business trends in June 13Commodity prices 14Domestic trade 15Employment , 16Finance 17Foreign trade , ,, 18Construction and real estate 19Transportation 20

SPECIAL ARTICLEParte

Review of business conditions in the first half of 1938 3

STATISTICAL DATA

Weekly business statistics through June 25 21Monthly business statistics 22General index Inside back cover

Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY'OF CURRENT BUSINESS is $2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 15 cents; weekly, 5 cents.Foreign subscriptions, #3.50. Price of the 1936 Supplement is 35 cents. Make remittances only to

Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C.


SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS July 1938

Business IndicatorsINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION *

140MONTHLY INCOME PAYMENTS'

INDEX NUMBERS, ( l 9 2 > - 2$ = l o o )

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS

\

\

\

INDEX NUMBERS (1929 = 1

j

oo) 120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

RETAIL SALES *130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

INDEX NUMBERS, ( 1 9 2 } - ZJ* lOO)

FACTORY EMPLOYMENT;

— (ADJUSTED)

\A zf

A12

FACTORY PAYROLLS

(UNAOJUSTEO)

i i

-RURAL SALES-GENERAL MERCHANDISE/

(I929--JI =100)

- DEPARTMENT STORE SALES(l9£5- 25 = lOO)

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED* •

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

WHOLESALE PRICESINDEX NUMBERS, ( I 9 2 J - 2{>= l 0 0 }

RAW MATERIALS

INDEX NUMBERS, ( l926 = IOO)

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

0

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

01929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

>T ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION # THREE- MONTH AVERAGE

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

D.D. 9402


July 1938 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

Review of Business Conditions in the FirstHalf of 1938

By Walter F. Crowder, Division of Economic Research

FURTHER deterioration in general economic condi-tions occurred in the first half of 1938, deepeningand broadening the recession movement in progresssince the late summer of 1937. The unfavorable trendwas reflected in a continued recession in the nationalincome, but the rate of decline showed definite signs ofslackening after January of this year. The decline inprimary business activity since December has beenrelatively moderate, in contrast to the abrupt curtail-ment in the final months of 1937. The contraction,however, has gradually extended to lines that usuallyshowT a lag during periods of recession. Consumer pur-chases, which declined only moderately during thefinal quarter of 1937, were substantially reduced in theJanuary-June period. Industrial production, employ-ment, and railroad freight traffic, on the other hand,declined only moderately, following the precipitousdrop in the late months of 1937. Unemployment,which had been steadily reduced up to the fall of 1937,increased materially during the past 9 months. Con-struction contracts underwent a sharp curtailmentbetween June 1937 and February 1938, but more recent-ly the gain in both public and private operations haslifted building activity to approximately the averagelevel prevailing in 1936 and 1937.

The trend of commodity prices was toward moder-ately lower levels during the first 6 months of the year.The downward movement, however, w7as apparentlychecked in the final weeks of June. Stock pricesmoved irregularly lower throughout most of the period,and bond prices, especially second-grade issues andrailroads, evidenced further marked weakness. Stockprices moved upward at a rather rapid rate toward theend of the second quarter.National Income Lower.

Monthly income payments have declined uninter-ruptedly so far during 1938, extending the downwardmovement which began late last summer. The season-ally adjusted index of total income payments in Maywas off 11 percent from the recovery peak of 88.6(1929 = 100) in August 1937, according to the monthlyindex of income payments compiled by the Bureau ofForeign and Domestic Commerce. Total income pay-ments for the first 5 months of 1938 were $25,389,000,-000, approximately 7 percent less than the $27,279,-000,000 estimate for the corresponding period of 1937.The margin of decline has widened as the year hasprogressed; income payments in May were 10 percentlower than those in May 1937, while the first quarter

of this year they averaged 5.4 percent less than a yearearlier.

Labor income during the first 5 months of 1938 was8.4 percent lower than in the comparable months of1937. The decline from a year ago has been pronouncedin the commodity-producing industries—manufacturing,mining, and construction—in which wages and salarieswere down about one-fifth. Payments in the trans-portation and public-utility group dropped 7 percent,reflecting primarily the reduction in railroad pay rolls.Labor income in the trade and finance and in thegovernment and service groups was only slightly lowTerthan in the January-May period last year.

Income paid to property holders in the form of divi-dends and interest during the first 5 months of 1938 wasabout 6 percent below that in the comparable period of1937. This reduction is in marked contrast to the ex-perience in the early months of 1930 when dividendand interest payments were 9 percent higher than inthe January-May period of 1929. Interest paymentswere wrell maintained, but dividends have declinedsharply since the first of the year.

Entrepreneurial withdrawals were 2 percent belowthe levels of a year ago. The relatively well-sustainedvolume of net rents and royalties has been an importantsteadying influence upon this type of income payment,rental rates having shown only slight declines sincelast October. The contraction in farm prices and farmcash income has been the principal depressing influenceupon total entrepreneurial income in recent months.

Income from Agriculture.Income from farm marketings in the first 5 months of

1938 totaled $2,568,000,000, a drop of 11 percent fromreceipts of $2,895,000,000 in the corresponding periodof 1937, according to estimates of the Bureau of Agri-cultural Economics. Government payments so farthis year have totaled $212,000,000, as compared with$302,000,000 in the January-May period last year.Total cash income (including Government payments)was 13 percent lower than in the first 5 months of 1937.Eeceipts from crops in this period were 20 percent belowthose in the corresponding months of 1937, whilereceipts from livestock and livestock products were only6 percent lower than last year. Increased sales ofdairy products partially offset smaller receipts frommeat animals, poultry, and poultry products.

It is expected that the total income from farmmarketings for the first half of 1938 will approximate$3,050,000,000, as compared with $3,503,000,000 in the


SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Julv 1938

first 6 months of 1937. On the basis of the assumptionthat commodity prices remain at or near the presentlow levels, the Department of Agriculture estimates thatfarm income for the last 6 months of 1938 could not beexpected to exceed $4,500,000,000, making a total of$7,550,000,000 for this year as compared with $8,521,-000,000 last year. The crop outlook for the summer andfall harvest, however, is very good. According to theJune 1 crop report, growing conditions at that time werebetter than on the same date of any year since 1929.

Industrial Production Down.

The total volume of industrial production declinedmoderately during the first half of 1938, following thesevere drop in the last 4 months of 1937. By referenceto the chart on page 2, it will be seen that industrialoutput dropped from 117 (1923-25 = 100) in August to80 in January and has moved slowly lower since then to76 in May, according to the seasonally adjusted indexcompiled by the Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System. Preliminary estimates for Juneindicate no change in the adjusted index.

The decline in the output of manufactured products,which was quite general and severe in 1937, persisted in1938. The course of the production of durable and non-durable manufactures, and the principal components ofeach group, over the past 3% years is indicated in theaccompanying chart.

Output of nondurable goods, which declined by some-what more than one-fifth from the spring of last yearto January 1938, has continued at that restricted level.Operations in this group of industries during the first6 months of 1938 averaged about one-fifth lower thanin the corresponding period of 1937, and were only 5 and3 percent, respectively, above the output in these linesduring the first half of 1932 and 1933. The severe cur-tailment in cotton consumption, woolen-mill activity,and boot and shoe production during the final months of1937 indicated a rate of operations in finishing linesbelow the more steady rate of consumer purchases ofthe products of these industries.

Silk and rayon deliveries to mills (not shown on thechart) dropped sharply from midsummer to the end of1937, then recovered about one-third of this decline inthe first quarter of 1938, a recovery which was not fullysustained. Activity at meat-packing establishmentshas proceeded at a relatively even pace at about theaverage level of the preceding 2 years. Production ofpetroleum products has shown an extension of the down-ward trend which began last fall. Output of tobaccoproducts, contrary to the general movement in thenondurable-goods industries, has moved irregularlyupward.

Output of durable manufactures, although turningdownward later in 1937 than the nondurable-goodsindustries, fell more rapidly during the final 4 months ofthe year. The usual seasonal rise was not fully experi-enced in these lines during; the first half of 1938, resulting:

in a moderate decline in the adjusted index. Operationsin the durable goods industries averaged less than 50percent of the 1937 rate for the comparable calendarperiod, but were 40 and 50 percent, respectively, abovethe averages for the first half of 1932 and 1933. Theproduction of steel and iron manufactures and lumberitems, after allowance for seasonal advances, has shownan irregular sidewise movement so far in 1938. Assem-blies of automobiles did not experience the usual

NDEX NUMBERS (1923-25

140

20

IOO

60

- Cotton

\

option I

Jr_£ s

40

20

00

80

6 0

-40

-WoolenMill'Activity .

-

-

\

\

VA /

i60

140

iZO

100

60

J60

lumberProducfi

^ :

TinDeUverCesUrerces »

Jw

1925 1938

Zcnc

193?y

1936

^ \ l i i ( ^

1937 '938 1

Figure 1.—Indexes of Durable and Nondurable Manufactures, Adjustedfor Seasonal Variation, 1935-38 (Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System).

NOTE.—Durable manufactures include iron and steel, automobiles, lumber, ship-building, locomotives, nonferrous metals, cement, polished plate glass, and coke;nondurable manufactures include textiles, leather and products, foods, tobacco prod-ucts, paper and printing, petroleum refining, and automobile tires and tubes.

seasonal rise in the first half of 1938. Cement produc-tion, contrary to the movement of other durable manu-factures, advanced in the first half of 1938.

In terms of actual quantity of output, steel ingotproduction in the first 5 months of 1938 totaled 9,181,-000 tons, as compared with 24,574,000 tons in the cor-responding period of 1937. The industry operated at29 percent of ingot capacity in January, moved up byMarch to 34 percent, and declined in subsequentmonths to 30 percent in May and to less than 29 per-Digitized for FRASER

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Julv 1938 SUEVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

cent in June. Automobile assemblies in the UnitedStates during the first 5 months just topped 1 millionunits as compared with over 2}{ million in the samemonths last year. Lumber production has showna smaller relative decline from the comparable monthslast year. Output in this industry at the high pointlast year, however, was low when compared with thepredepression years, as the construction industry,especially residential building, experienced less of a risein the recovery period than other lines.

Employment and Pay Rolls Lower.

Total nonagricultural employment recorded a contra-seasonal decline in May, after having failed to recordthe usual rise during the first 4 months of the year.After allowance for seasonal changes, employment hasreceded steadily since early last fall and is currently at

MILLIONS OF PERSONS501

4 0

Tot of Non-Agricultural Employment

1929 1930 1951 I 1992 19?? I9M- I9?5 19^6 I I9?7 ! 19)8O. D. 9705

Figure 2.—Total Nonagricultural Employment in the United States,1929-38 (U. S. Department of Labor).

1 Includes trade, finance, service, and miscellaneous industries, and Government,education, and professional services.

2 Includes manufacturing ,mining, construction, transportation, and public utilities

the lowest point since February 1936. These data,which cover all persons engaged in gainful work outsideof agriculture (excluding employment on W. P. A. andother emergency projects), indicate that the drop inemployment since September 1937 has amounted toabout 3,300,000 workers.

The decline in factory employment continuedthroughout the first 5 months of 1938. On a seasonallyadjusted basis, employment dropped 18 percent duringthe last 6 months of 1937, and 8 percent further duringthe first 5 months of 1938. Pay rolls have shown amore abrupt decline since the fall of 1937.

Following the production trends, the number at workin durable-goods manufacturing industries recorded asharper drop than employment in nondurable-goods

industries. Since the peak last July, employment infactories producing durable goods dropped 33 percent,while employment in nondurable-goods lines declined17 percent, on the basis of the seasonally adjustedindexes. Among the durable-goods classifications, thesharpest decline was recorded in railroad car-buildingshops (58 percent); in nondurable-goods lines, thegreatest decline was in rubber tires and tubes (32 per-cent). The best showing has been made for stone,clay, and glass products in the first group of industries,and tobacco manufactures in the second group, wherethe declines since last summer have amounted to 22percent and 1 percent, respectively.

Employment in the various trade lines has experi-enced a relatively small decline as compared with thatin manufacturing industries. In wholesale trade, thenumber at work in the middle of May was about 4percent below May 1937, and in retail trade the declineamounted to 7 percent. The general-merchandising

NDLX NUMBERS (.1929=100;

O

O

o

o

c

70

0

I

1929 1950

i-Averag

A"""\

\

1951

0 Hourly

\

1952

Earnings

\ \

U-Aver

Worked pe

{fxj-age Week

1954

"' Hoursr Week /r-

ly Earnings

i9>5

. . . — ' ' •

/

A-s \

\1

1 . , ..

1937

/ ^

/"'s

|QJ}8

Figure 3.—Indexes of Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings and HoursWorked per Week in 25 Manufacturing Industries, 1929-38.

NOTE.—Computed from the original data of the National Industrial ConferenceBoard, using 1929 as a base.

classification of retail trade experienced the sharpestdecline (10 percent).

Average hourly earnings (wage rates) in manufactur-ing industries have shown little change since last summerand are currently at near record highs, as is indicatedin figure 3. Average hours worked per week haveshown little change so far this year, following a declineof more than one-fifth since early 1937. Under theinfluence of these forces weekly earnings have alsomoved narrowly this year.

Prices Decline.

Wholesale prices, as measured by the index of theBureau of Labor Statistics, moved downward rathersharply in the first 4 months of 1938 but leveled off inMay and advanced slightly in the late weeks of June,although the average for the month was unchanged.The general index stood at 78.2 percent of the 1926 aver-


6 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

Table 1.—Variations in Prices of Selected Commodities

July 1938

Commodity Unit 1937 High

177.75

65.507.85

21.922.512

14.5012.2114. 15

1.4013.15

3.95H.911.152.18834

27Ys

1938 Low

94.00

35.004.39

11.002.3507.497.637.70

4.35

2.657.76

.661.5643

July 1938 SUEVEY OF CUERENT BUSINESS

Construction Activity.

The total dollar volume of construction contractsawarded continued to decline through the first 2 monthsof 1938, extending the downward trend of awards whichbegan last July, according to reports by the F. W.Dodge Corporation for 37 Eastern States. Sharpadvances in contracts awarded during March, April,and May, however, lifted total awards to approxi-mately the level of 1936 and 1937. For the first 5months of 1938 the dollar volume of awards averaged11 percent below that in the comparable months of 1937and was 58 percent below the value in the same monthsof 1929. Residential building in the January-Mayperiod was down 26 percent from 1937 and 66 percentfrom 1929.

Building, both private and public, contributed to thisadvance in March, April, and May. Although bothresidential and nonresidential building advanced sub-stantially, the gain was considerably larger in the latterclassification. Some of the spring rise may haveresulted, however, from the release of construction thathad been deferred pending the inauguration of the newFederal aid program. High costs of labor and ma-terials still constitute a deterrent to a large-scalerevival of building. The construction industry gen-erally has failed to share in the technological develop-ments which have made high wages and low productioncosts possible in the manufacturing field, though it isforced into price competition with other lines of activityfor the labor and materials which are used.

Railroads.

Freight loadings declined steadily through April ofthis year in continuation of the tendency which firstbecame evident last summer, and reached a point onlyslightly above the lows of 1933. In May and June asmall upturn in traffic that was slightly larger thanusual occurred. The effects of the decline in trafficsince midsummer of last year on the profits of the rail-roads have been particularly serious, as they did notexperience so full a recovery from the depression lowsas other major industries.

Loadings in the first 5 months of 1938 were down 25percent from the corresponding period of last year. Atthis level, car loadings were slightly below those in theJanuary-May period of 1932 and were only 9 percentabove those in 1933.

Miscellaneous loadings, which are comprised in largepart of shipments of manufactured products, werenearly 30 percent lower in the first 5 months of 1938than in the corresponding period last year. Loadingsof forest products for the same comparative periodrecorded a drop of 28 percent, but the marked rise inconstruction contract awards during the past severalmonths presages some increase in lumber shipmentsduring the early summer. Reflecting the current lowrate of activity in the steel industry, loadings of ore in

in May were only about one-fifth those of a year ago,and for the first 5 months were less than one-third themovement in the same months in 1937.

Gross revenues of Class I railroads have remained wellabove those of 1933, but higher operating costs, despitethe price declines of recent months, have resulted inmonth-to-month deficits which are slightly larger thanthose recorded in the worst depression year (see figure 5).The deficit, after all charges, amounted to $140,000,000in the first 4 months of 1938, the largest loss recorded bythe carriers for any comparable period since these datafirst became available in 1931. In the correspondingmonths of 1933, the loss was $120,000,000. In April,the carriers w êre granted an increase in freight rates,which on the basis of traffic volume in 1936, was esti-mated to yield additional annual revenue of approxi-mately $175,000,000. In the first 6 months of the year,however, freight traffic was about 16 percent below thatof the same months in 1936.

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

M \

Railway

Comper

Net Rail

1

1927

1

AOperating

A< \Expense

solion of Employ*.

way Oper

jA

1928

at ing Inc

-4

1929

1—Raifm ry Open

om°z,{-Net /

.1930 1 1931

ting Pei/ >nues

,A

•*-AJ ' \.J \''J? " 'ncome or Deficit

[ 1 ! i

1933 i 1934 1935 1936

^ • \

v—^

,1937

y-

1938

Figure 5.—Financial Operations of Class I Railways, Excluding Switchingand Terminal Companies, 1927-38 (Interstate Commerce Commission).1 Monthly data are not available prior to 1931.

Equipment buying by the railroads was in relativelysmall volume during the first half of the year. Ordersfor locomotives in the first 5 months of the year, asreported in the Railway Age, totaled only 44 as com-pared with 206 in the corresponding period of 1937.Freight-car orders for these same comparative periodswere 6,933 and 44,562, respectively. The equipmentmanufacturers and railroad car shops have worked offtheir backlogs and have geared operations to thepresent small volume of incoming orders.

Foreign Trade.

The relatively high volume of export trade during thefirst 5 months of this year has been a significant factorin cushioning the business recession that began last fall.The shifts in the indexes of quantity, price, and value ofexports and imports, as compiled by the Bureau ofForeign and Domestic Commerce, are shown in theaccompanying chart. In the decline in economicactivity after 1929, the leading industrial nations


8 SUKVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS July 1938

were also severely hit, and this was reflected in therapid drop in foreign trade. Although there has beensome contraction in business activity in leading foreigncountries during the past few months, the currentdomestic recession has not had a counterpart in othernations, and the sustained foreign demand has thusacted as a support to export trade. The continuedhigh level of exports and the downward trend of importsduring the first 5 months of this year have resulted inbuilding up an excess of exports over imports of morethan $544,000,000, the largest export balance for thisperiod since 1921.

Exports in the January-May period this year were 7percent above those in the corresponding period lastyear. Agricultural exports, reflecting the good harvest

INDEX NUMBERSTOTAL EXPORTS

160

140

I 20

100

80

60

40

20

O

UNIT V

QUANTITY

\

A L U E - ^

TOTAL W LULJ

s/

r—"*

/1 J

1

J

TOTAL IMPORTS

s.UNIT VAlu£"->\TOTAL VALUE^

19291 1 1

I9?O

rOUANT,T

19̂ 1

Y

\

t

1 1 1

1952

A — \J.—

I9>41 1 1

D.

\

19̂ 7O.94-9*

\

1 1 1

1938

Figure 6.—Changes in Quantity, Unit Value (Prices), and Total Value ofExports and Imports, by Quarters, 1929-38 (U. S. Department ofCommerce).

in 1937 and the drought shortage in 1936, were up 29percent. Nonagricultural exports advanced 1 percent,largely because heavy shipments of machinery (up 16percent) and petroleum and products (up 18 percent)offset declines in other lines.

In the first 5 months of 1938, 52 percent of the ordersfor machine tools was from foreign sources as comparedwith 21 percent of a much larger total volume last year;14 percent of the total automobile production was ex-ported as compared with 7 percent last year; and 11percent of total steel products (data for first quarteronly) was exported as compared with 4 percent lastyear. Advances in the relative importance of exporttrade in these lines were due to the curtailment in do-mestic demand as compared with a relatively steadyvolume of shipments to foreign buyers.

Imports of merchandise, seasonally adjusted, have de-clined almost without interruption since the spring of1937. The drop from June 1937 through May 1938 in

the adjusted index exceeded 50 percent. Imports in thefirst 5 months of 1938 were 42 percent below those in thecorresponding months of 1937, when imports of crudematerials and foodstuffs were at high levels under thestimuli of rising prices, the high rate of industrial ac-tivity, and the drought-shortened supplies of domesticfoodstuffs. The lowered volume of import trade thisyear resulted largely from a reverse situation—priceswere lower, industrial demand was slack, and amplesupplies of agricultural products were available. Im-ports of agricultural products in the January-Mayperiod this year were down 46 percent from the samemonths last year; nonagricultural imports were down33 percent.Retail Trade.

The effect of the business recession was not felt to asignificant degree in retail trade until late in 1937; thenbecame pronounced in the first half of 1938. Althoughconsumer purchasing was somewhat retarded duringthe third quarter of 1937, not until November did thedollar volume of sales fall below that in the comparativemonth of the previous year.

The deepening business recession ŵ as reflected in themonthly series of decreases in retail sales through Mayof 1938 (the latest period for which data are complete),with the relative decline in comparison with a year agoincreasing as the period advanced. Sales in May weredown 20 percent from May 1937, whereas trade in Jan-uary of this year was 12 percent below that in the samemonth last year. Statistics for June are not yet com-plete, but available data indicate some improvement intrade activity.

Preliminary estimates for the first 6 months of 1938indicate a decline in the total dollar volume of retailsales of about 18 percent from the same period of 1937.Sales of durable goods experienced the greatest relativedecline. The decrease was especially marked in newpassenger automobile sales, the dollar volume of whichdropped 45 percent during the first 5 months of the yearas compared with the similar period of 1937; lumberand building materials, hardware, and furniture andhousehold appliances also recorded substantial declines,General merchandise sales decreased about 12 percent,while grocery store sales, which move narrowly, weredown about 6 percent. The decrease in dollar volumeof general merchandise sold can be accounted for in partby lowered prices.

Although retail activity was generally depressedduring the first 5 months of the year and consumerincome averaged about 7 percent below the estimatedamount for the first half of 1937, the recession patternwas not uniform throughout the Nation. The marginof change varied greatly in the different regions andamong the different States; the largest declines occurredin those States where purchasing power was moreclosely tied in with industrial activity. Sales in theCentral Western and Southern States w êre less de-


July 1938 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 9

pressed than in other regions, while the East NorthCentral States showed the largest relative declines.Wholesale Trade.

The margin by which wholesalers' sales this yearhave fallen below sales last year, when activity wasrelatively steady, has continued to widen as the yearhas progressed. Beginning last October, sales fellbelow those of the corresponding month a year earlier.In January they were dowrn 12 percent from January1937 and in May 16 percent from May 1937. Pre-liminary estimates indicate that wholesale sales duringthe first 5 months of 1938 averaged about 15 percentbelow those in the comparable period last year.

Among the various lines of wholesaling activity, thelargest declines during the first 5 months from the samemonths in 1937 were recorded by firms selling electricalgoods, hardware, furniture, and jewelry, while the leastsevere contractions were shown by those selling drugs,tobacco, petroleum products, and meats. Wholesalers'inventories in May were down 14 percent from May1937, when stocks were generally high, while sales wereoff 16 percent from May last year.Banking and Credit. l

Major financial developments during the first halfof 1938 included the shifts in the gold and creditpolicies of the Federal monetary authorities, and thechange in the fiscal program of the Government. Dur-ing more than a year, as a means of preventing in-creases in monetary gold stock from further expand-ing bank reserves, gold purchases by the Treasury hadbeen made out of the proceeds of the sale of additionalpublic-debt obligations; and, in pursuance of this policy,gold acquisitions had been placed in an inactive accountin the Treasury. On February 14 it was announcedthat, retroactive to January 1, 1938, gold acquisitionswould be placed in the inactive account only to theextent that they exceeded $100,000,000 in any quarter.

1 This review of financial developments during the first half of 1938 was prepared byDr. August Maffry of the Finance Division of the Bureau of Foreign and DomesticCommerce.

Since gold imports and other gold purchases were run-ning currently below this level, the effect of the newpolicy was to permit acquisitions after the beginningof the year to increase bank reserves.

This action by the Treasury was followed on April14 by the desterilization of approximately $1,400,000,000of inactive gold, representing the net accumulationsince the beginning of sterilization on December 21,1936. Desterilization was accomplished through thedeposit of gold certificates with the Federal ReserveBanks, and the desired effect upon bank reserves was

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS9

Figure 7.—Total Member-Bank Reserve Balances at Federal Reserve Banks,with Estimates of Acquired and Excess Reserves, 1934-38 (Board ofGovernors of the Federal Reserve System).

produced by drawing down the resulting Treasurydeposits through the retirement of Treasury bills withcash at the rate of $50,000,000 weekly.

The change in the gold policy of the Treasury wassupplemented by a reduction of approximately 13%percent in the reserve requirements on all classes ofdeposits for all member banks announced by the Boardof Governors of the Federal Reserve System on April15. This action followed the doubling of requirementsduring 1936 and 1937. The effect of the order was toraise the excess reserves of member banks by about$750,000,000 to $2,492,000,000 on April 20. Largelyas a result of the disbursement by the Treasury of the

BiLL!16

-U.S.Government Obligations(Direct and Guaranteed)

Commercial Loans •

Other Securities "

i | ; i l l i

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

16 ~

1935 1937 1938 1935

Figure 8.-—Bank Credit of Reporting Member Banks in 101 Cities, 1935-38. Wednesday Figures (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).16181—38 2Digitized for FRASER


10 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS July 1938

proceeds of gold desterilization, the total reserves ofthe banks rose to $7,922,000,000 on June 22, as com-pared with $6,983,000,000 at the end of 1937. Excessreserves were estimated at $2,780,000,000 on June 22—almost four times the amount in early August 1937 andconsiderably more than twice the amount at thebeginning of the year.

On June 21 a bill providing for the expenditure of$3,753,000,000 for relief and public works was signedby the President. The extension of Government ef-forts to stimulate business was signalized earlier bythe reopening and enlargement of the credit facilitiesof the Reconstruction Finance Corporation for thebenefit of both large and small business enterprises byamendments which became effective on April 13.

Developments during the first 6 months of 1938 inthe sphere of commercial banking reflected principallythe depressed condition of business. Commercial, in-dustrial, and agricultural loans of the .weekly reportingmember banks fell from $4,601,000,000 at the end of1937 to $3,916,000,000 on June 22, a decrease of $685,-000,000. Other loans declined by $423,000,000, chieflyas a result of the reduction in loans to brokers anddealers in securities. The investments of reportingmember banks increased during the same period by$278,000,000 as the banks increased their holdings ofGovernment and Government-guaranteed obligationsby approximately $130,000,000 and their holdings ofother securities, on balance, by $148,000,000. De-mand deposits in these banks were increased duringthe period by $505,000,000. The decline in loanstended, of course, to reduce deposits, but other factors,especially the purchase by banks of securities from non-bank holders, had the greater effect of increasing them.Security Markets and Money Markets.

The trend in stock prices was irregularly downwardduring the half-year ended in June. The StandardStatistics index of 420 stocks fell to 73.9 for May, ascompared with 82.2 in December 1937 and with 120.5at the beginning of the downturn in prices in the pre-ceding August. The decline, as measured by repre-sentative averages, was most pronounced in the case ofrailroad shares, which lost well over half of their quotedvalue between August 1937 and May 1938. When itbecame apparent, in June, that no railroad legislationwould be forthcoming at the closing session of Congress,railroad obligations showed further weakness. Public-utility stocks dropped from 78.8 at the year-end to69.5 in May. Industrials, which fell from 95.2 inDecember to 87.4 in May, showed the smallest propor-tionate decline among the major classifications but weremore than a third below the level of August 1937. Amoderate advance in stock prices during the first 3weeks of June was followed by a brisk rally in the finalweek of the month which carried combined averagesclose to the year's high. The volume of trading, whichhad been exceptionally light during the early months

of the year, recovered sharply with the upturn in pricesafter June 20. Bond prices drifted lower during thefirst 6 months of 1938 and were carried to the lowestlevels in recent years in mid-June as a result largely ofthe further decline in quotations for railroad obligations.In the last 2 weeks of June bond prices experienced some

INDEX NUMBERS (\926 = \OO)

32 5

300

27?

250

225

200

175

125

100

50

25

0

-40

J48ln

1926

Public 6 till ties-

r

iustrials-^jl

1 fit"

Jo

1927 I92S

' J J

~*1 '">

pii V/\1

Railroo

1929

jl

/ \/ i

i

\

A 'v

M

\

1930

\

V\

1931

" A ,

>^A

1932

< \A*

V'v/'VJ933 1934

•-J

1935

/

1936

\ \

\

V

1937 1938

Figure 9.—Movement of Stock Prices by Major Groups, 1926-38 (StandardStatistics Co., Inc.).

recovery. The variations in yields on three grades ofcorporation bonds are shown in figure 10.

The dullness in the capital market was unrelievedduring the first half of 1938. Flotations by domesticcorporations for new capital in the 5-month period fromJanuary to May totaled approximately $655,000,000, a

PERCENT YIELD2

4

6

8

9

10

1 2

^ v — -

1928

—4—

1929

\

1950

-Aaa

r

i

i

it

1931

\ ! A

f\ i/ I • 1

1 i

1 1l i1/

V

1932

v\ vfv

1933

:

f V/

1934 1935 1936

v—\.

X \V

1937

V

V

193s

Figure 10.—Yield of 120 Corporate Bonds by Ratings, 1928-38 (Moody'sInvestors Service).

NOTE.—In the rating classification followed by Moody's Investors Service, Aaaindicates bonds which are and may be expected to remain the most conservative typeof investment. Such bonds will tend to fluctuate in price with fluctuations of theprevailing long-term interest rates. Bonds rated A have distinct investment quali-ties, but do not have the elements of strength which would necessarily prevent theirintrinsic worth from being affected by some special development; while those ratedBaa have definitely less of an investment and more of a speculative character.

decrease of 30 percent from the aggregate for the corre-sponding period of 1937. Dividend declarations by 600companies fell steadily during the same period andstood at $1.43 per share in May, as compared with$2.18 in December 1937 and with $2.09 in May 1937,



according to a compilation by Moody's Investors Serv-ice. Treasury quarterly financing in March was con-fined to the refunding of maturing notes, and in Juneto the exchange of bonds and notes for obligationsmaturing on June 15 and on September 15. Interestrates on the securities offered in the recent exchange,2% percent on 25-year bonds and l)i percent on 5-yearnotes, were the lowest which have been quoted forGovernment obligations of similar maturities. Theextreme ease in the money market was indicated alsoby the fall in the Treasury bill rate to 0.016 for theoffering of June 20.

Foreign Exchange Markets and Gold Movements.

As in other recent years, the foreign exchanges werestrongly affected during the first half of 1938 by therepercussions of political developments at home andabroad. During January and February, the dollarshowed weakness in terms of the principal Europeancurrencies, with the usual exception of the Frenchfranc; and the liquidation of dollar balances in Februarygrowing out of the fear of dollar devaluation carried thepound sterling, the guilder, and the Swiss franc to thehighest levels since the Tripartite Declaration of Sep-tember 1936. In March, at the time of the union ofAustria with Germany, the European currencies wereunder severe pressure, although fluctuations in rateswere kept within fairly narrow limits by virtue ofofficial supporting operations. Gold engagements atthat time in London and in Brussels for Americanaccount were the first reported acquisitions in Europesince September 1937. Both the strength of the dollarand the movement of gold signified at least a briefresumption of the flow of capital funds from Europeancenters to the United States.

The continued weakness of the French franc, arisingfrom the prolongation of domestic financial difficultiesand accentuated by the strained international situation,culminated in a further depreciation of the franc in earlyMay. Renewed pressure upon the European curren-cies was evident until the reappearance in June ofrumors of a reduction in the gold buying price of theUnited States Treasury. Under the influence of theserumors the dollar was generally weak on the foreignexchanges, and another of the spasmodic flights to goldwas indicated by a strong demand in the London marketfor gold for hoarding purposes. Following the "com-plete and formal" denial by the Secretary of the Treas-ury on June 20 that further devaluation of the dollarwas contemplated and his reminder that the matterrested between the President and himself, both of whom

had issued frequent denials, the exchanges moved againin favor of the dollar.

Gold Movement at Lower Rate.

Gold imports into the United States in the periodfrom January to the middle of June, which amountedto $234,000,000, were much reduced in comparisonwith the extremely heavy inflow during the sameperiod of 1937, which aggregated $948,000,000. Thepersistence of the inward movement was attributableto the large excess of merchandise exports from thiscountry, which was accumulating at the rate of morethan $100,000,000 per month, while the reduction inthe size of the reported inflow reflected the reversalin the movement of capital funds which appeared inthe last quarter of 1937 and continued into the earlymonths of 1938. Gold acquisitions in the Londonmarket, which were $658,000,000 in the period fromJanuary to mid-June in 1937, fell to only $90,000,000in the corresponding period of 1938, and substantialengagements for American account were confined tothe period of marked weakness in the principal Euro-pean currencies in March, April, and late May. InJune, the movement of gold from London to New Yorkceased with the liquidation of foreign dollar balancesand with the simultaneous appearance of a heavydemand for gold growing out of fears of a furtherdevaluation of the dollar.

Gold imports from Belgium during January-Junerepresented a part of the gold lost by the NationalBank of Belgium in the defense of the belga, whichwas under severe pressure in March and again in May.Those from Sweden, which began in May, were reportedto be for safekeeping. Arrivals from producing coun-tries were much smaller than in 1937, especially in thecase of Canada and British India. Receipts fromJapan totaled $55,500,000 up to June 17, as comparedwith $43,000,000 in the same period of 1937 and with$246,000,000 during the whole of the preceding year.Capital Movements During First Quarter.

The statistics of capital movements between theUnited States and foreign countries during the firstquarter of 1938, issued by the Treasury Departmenton June 30, showed a continuation of the outwardmovement of short-term banking funds which featuredthe final quarter of 1937. This outflow, consistingalmost entirely of a reduction in foreign dollar balances,was placed at $233,000,000 during January-March, ascompared with $644,000,000 during the precedingperiod. The outward movement, which became pro-gressively heavier on a monthly basis, was unbroken


12 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Julv 1938

except for 2 isolated weeks in January and in March.The net outflow of capital during the quarter amountedto only $203,000,000 as a result of an inward move-ment of brokerage balances amounting to approximately$6,000,000 and a net inflow of funds in security trans-

actions amounting to $24,000,000. The latter move-ment was entirely the result of net purchases of foreignsecurities in this market by foreigners since domesticsecurities were sold, on balance, to the extent of$12,000,000.

Table 2.—Selected Business Series, Comparative Data for the First 5 Months of 1929, 1932, 1937, and 1938With Percentage Changes

Item Unit or base period

First 5 months of-

1929 1932 1937

Percentage change, first 5months 1938 from like

period of—

1938 1929 1932

Income payments, totalCompensation of employees.Dividends and interestEntrepreneurial withdrawals and net rents

and royalties.Industrial production, combined index

ManufacturingMining

Production series:AutomobilesBituminous coalCotton consumptionElecti ic powerLumber iPetroleum, crude.

Millions of dollars... __do. . . . .do

do

1923-25=100-dodo

Thousands of unitsThousands of net tonsThousands of balesM illions of kilowatt-hoursMillions of feet, board measure jThousands of barrelsThousands of long tons..

doThousands of pounds.

Pig ironSteel ingotsWool consumption

Distribution:Car loadings Thousands of units..

: Retail sales:Passenger automobiles I 1929-31 = 100Department stores I 1923-25=100Rural-

Cash income from farm marketingsEmployment and pay rolls:

Employment:Nonagricultural (estimated total)2..Factory

Pay rolls:Factory

Construction:Contracts awarded, total

ResidentialNonresidentialPublic works and utilities

Foreign trade:1Exports:

QuantityValue

Imports:QuantityValue

Finance:Corporation earnings 3Securities issued, total

New capitalRefunding

Bond prices (45 corporate issues)Stock prices (420 issues)

Prices:Wholesale prices 2Cost of living of wage earners 2 1923 = 100.

1929-31 = 100..1924-29 = 100.

Thousands of workers.1923-25 = 100

1923-25=100..

Millions of dollars... . do

do_do

1923-25 =100_.1923-25 = 100.

1923-25=100.1923-25 = 100..

1926 = 100Thousands of dollars

Dollars.—1926=100..

-100..

31,80720.903

4', 032 i6,272 !

122124110

2, 680219, 076

3,19538.7258, 620

404, 88417,92324, 133

159, 700

21, 325

161.7100. 0110.3

90. 2

36, 254103. 6

109. 8

2, J82913985584

143125

132116

138.55,511,6304,648,132

863,49895. 3

1S7.0

94.799.0

21,49713,7813,5144,202

676673

688128,515

2,07434, 693

2, 643333.751

4, 5416, 784

7S; 500

12, 100

42.868.060.944.6

27, 72568.1

554140223189

7640

8941

18.4753, 351582, 745170, 605

76.651.5

64.478.3

27, 27918,7943,2605,225

119120112

2.291191,141

3,51049, 4905,436

514, 35416, 59924, 574

194, 503

15, 804

121.684.0

107.168.5

34, 993100.2

99.5

1,175423441311

63

14082

102.42, 151, 528

928, 4441, 223, 084

103.6125.2

87.4

25, 38917, 2043,0715,114

797696

1,029129, 440

2.21345,8214,212

308,5696,8109,181

79; 125

11,928

67.377.097.460.8

31,80080.7

71.7

1, 043313352378

10873

9151

39.51, 134, 554

654, 807479. 746

76.677.0

78.186.5

—20.2- 1 7 . 7- 3 3 . 7- 1 8 . 5

- 3 5 . 2- 3 8 . 7- 1 2 . 7

- 6 1 . 6- 4 0 . 9- 3 0 . 7+18. 3- 5 1 . 1+25. 6- 0 2 . 0- 6 2 . 0- 5 0 . 5

- 4 4 . 1

-58 .4 !- 2 3 . 0- 1 1 . 7

- 1 2 . 3- 2 2 . 1

-34 .7

- 5 8 . 0- 6 5 . 7- 6 4 . 3- 3 5 . 3

- 4 1 . 6

- 3 1 . 1- 5 6 . 0

- 7 1 . 5- 7 9 . 4—85.9-44 .4— 19.6- 5 8 . 8

- 1 7 . 5- 1 2 . 6

+18. 1+24. 8-12.6+21. 7

+17.9+ 15.2+31. 5

+49.6+0.7+6.7

+32.1+59.4 i+52.4 I+50.0+35.3 |+0-8 !

- • • !

+57.2 [+13.2+59. 9+36. 3

+14.7+18. 5

+39. 2

+88. 3+123. 6+57. S

+ 100.0

+42. 1+82. 5

+2.2+24.4

+114.7 |+50. 6

+ 18L2 |

"+49:5" !

+21.3+ 10. 5

- 6 . 9- 8 . 5- 5 . 8- 2 . 1

- 3 3 . 6-36 . 7- 1 4 . 3

- 5 5 . 1- 3 2 . 3-37 .0—7 4

-22^5- 1 . 1

- 5 9 . 0-62 .6-59 . 3

-24 . 8

-44 .7- 8 . 3- 9 . 1

-11 .2

- 9 . 1- 1 9 . 5

- 2 7 . 9

-11 .2-2G. 0- 2 0 . 2+21. 5

-4-21. 3+ 15.9

- 3 5 . 0-37 .8

- 6 1 . 1- 4 7 . 3- 2 9 . 5- 6 0 . 8

!

- 1 0 . 6- 2 . 6

1 Data for first quarter of each year. -; May of each year,3 Data for first 2 quarters of each year.


July 1938 SURVEY OF CUERENT BUSINESS 13

Summary of Business Trends in JuneINDUSTRIAL production during June was main-tained at approximately the May level after allow-ance for the usual seasonal decline. Steel ingot productionaveraged about 10 percent lower than in May, a changeof about seasonal proportions. Output, however, tendedupward during the month, being scheduled at 29 percentof capacity in the final week of the month as comparedwith 26 percent in the first week. The prices of finishedand semifinished steel products, which had resisted thegeneral price decline, experienced moderate reductionsafter some weeks of uncertainty over the price structure.

Automobile assemblies for June, according to weeklyestimates, declined more than seasonally from May.Further curtailment of greater-than-seasonal propor-tions is indicated for automobile production in the sum-mer months, if announced plans are not altered.

Bituminous coal output in June showed the usualsmall expansion, and electric power production made aslight contraseasonal gain. Freight-car loadings duringthe first 3 weeks of June showed a gain from May ofslightly more-than-seasonal proportions, as a result ofa sharp increase in the movement of ore and a small gainin the shipments of manufactured goods included in themiscellaneous group. No marked changes occurred inthe other major industrial series for which June data

are available, but a brisk improvement in sales of tex-tiles was reported in the latter part of the month andcommitments in other commodities increased.

A definite strengthening in primary commodity priceswas noted after the first week of June when manyquotations had reached levels not touched since 1934.In the final weeks of the month a broad price advanceembraced most important raw materials. Securitymarkets experienced a sharp advance in the latter partof the month, with representative stock "averages" re-cording substantial gains. Bond financing during Junewas the largest for any month since July a year ago.Several large corporate issues were successfully floated.

Department store sales during the first 3 weeks inJune showed a progressive narrowing of the margin bywhich sales this year were below those in the corre-sponding weeks last year.

Construction contracts awarded in the first half ofJune made a less favorable showing than in May whenawards on a seasonally adjusted basis were the highestsince last August. Total awards declined 15 percentfrom the daily average in May, the change resulting inlarge measure from the reduction in public worksprojects, which were placed in large volume daringMay. Residential awards were relatively favorable.

MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES

Year and month

1929: May1933: May1934: May1935: May1936: May1937:

May .June ..JulyAugustoeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1938:JanuaryFebruaryMarch...*AprilMay

Monthly average, Januarythrough May:

1929 _19331934193519301937) 938

Industrial production

Unadjusted 1 Adjusted >

Factory em-ployment

and pay rolls

11i!

Freight-carloadings

Total

1BE

3

3

Mer-chan-dise,I.C.I.

I

Retail sales,value,

adjusted'

s

II

Monthly average, 1923-25=100

126798987105

1221151111151091029080

7979807878

122678589

11979

128808987105

123114110114106998675

7576777675

124668489

12076

116778688

101

117118115120125123112108

10398959192

110 .73 i_87 |.88 |.99 _112 I.90 |.

122788685101

1181141141171111028884

80797977 j

1237786

I 84101

US1141141171101018579

76757573

117798890102

117115112113115113109115

10810210310194

105.465.985.984. 689. S

102.2101.4103 0102.4100.798.494.189. 0

84.283. 081.679. 277.6

112.943.768.169.480.8

105. 2102.9100.4103.8100.1100.189.5

71.773.273. 370.769.4

10755646172

8078807978767167

6562600/

58

10567666465

6987686867666462

6162616060

IV.). t" 100 ;KJ. 3 40. ;

f>9. (•

77.09',.."71.7

102506161677857

10365666463

90

y1929-

31 = 100

116.564.879.793. 1114.3

127.1124.4119.1115.1131.7131.3118.6126.4

104.399.9105.8112.3110.1

110.352. 471.886.095.2

107. 197.4

Foreigntrade, value,adjusted'

IIufl 3

a?

l

Monthly averagi1923-25=100

10832454656

8179807974727279

75767276n

1172945455167

1223247

120294552608651

134.358.371.578.986.2

97.8101.5102.293.494.6101. 092. 1105.6

89.374.288.184.181.2

135. 84 56. 568.476. 186.8100. 483.4

1211736275058

Incomepayments3

IS

m

a

Month lyaverage,1929=100

97. 153. 961.966.474. 7

82 991.388.582.790.690.881.396.9

81.074.479.3

64.9(59. 277.8

87. 687. 888.188.687.236. 4S5. 184.0

81.780.780.679.479.0

1SH o

Monthlyaverage,1926 = 100

97.(5 |54.6 !63.2 !68.2 !

7 . 9 ! i

94.762.773. 780. 2

87 287 987. f<87.485. 483.381.7

80.979.879. 7

95. b60.873. 379. 679.8cS7. 179.4

' Adjusted for number of working days. 3 Adjusted for seasonal variations ?See note marked "•" on p. 22. 4 Average of 4 months January, February, April, and May.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Commodity PricesCOMMODITY prices moved upward after the firstweek of June when many sensitive commodityquotations and the general index of wholesale priceswere the lowest since late 1934. Moody's index of spotprices of 15 raw commodities increased from 130 (De-cember 31, 1931 = 100) on June 1, to 141 in the fourthweek of the month, recovering all of the loss since thelatter part of April. Advances were recorded in pricesof lead, zinc, tin, rubber, silk, and farm products. Steelscrap quotations advanced nearly $2 per ton after de-clining almost uninterruptedly since last summer. Do-mestic copper, lead, and zinc mines have been shutdown in recent weeks and international control groupshave reduced production and export quotas of tin,rubber, and copper.

Steel prices were reduced late in June after holdingpractically constant at the levels established in Marchof last year. Steel ingot quotations were reduced $3to $34 per ton at Pittsburgh. Between the summer of1936 and March 1937, steel ingot prices had been ad-vanced from $29 to $37 per ton. Proportionate de-creases were made in quotations of a variety of finishedsteel products.

Prices of farm products firmed after the first weekin June, the wholesale price index compiled by theBureau of Labor Statistics advancing from 67.2 (1926 =100), the lowest since August 1934, to 68.8 for the weekended June 25. Wheat prices recovered from the lowsearly in June as prospects for a record crop were fol-lowed by reports of rust damage. Spot cotton quo-tations in 10 Southern markets increased during themonth from less than 8 cents per pound to 8% cents.The average price for beef steers at Chicago was $9.51per 100 pounds for the week ended June 25, a gain of$1.02 since the first week of May. Over the sameperiod the average price paid by packers for hogsincreased $0.74 to $8.43.

Living costs of wage earners have held steady sinceJanuary, following a drop of over 2 percent from therecovery peak last October. Retail food prices werefractionally lower at mid-May than a month earlier,but remained above the February-March level. TheFairchild index for retail prices of department storearticles continued to decline during May, and on June1 was 89.5 (January 1, 1931 = 100), as compared withthe recovery high of 96.6 on September 1, 1937.

INDEXES OF COMMODITY PRICES

Tear and month

Wholesale Prices (U. S. Department of Labor)

Economic classes Groups and subgroups

II

Monthly average, 1926=100

3

itII

Mo.average,

1923=100

Mo.avei1909-14= 100

srage, a1

Retail prices

p ©

Mo.iverage,1923-25= 100

If

II1aDec.1930(Jan.

1,1931)= 100

1929: May1933: May1934: May1935: May1936: M a y1937:

MayJuneJuly — -AugustSeptemberOctober __NovemberDecember

1938:JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilM a y

Monthly average, January throughMay:

19291933

1934193519361937

94.62.73.780.278.6

87.487.287.87.587.4B5.483.381.7

80.979.879.778.78.1

95. 560.873.379.679.887. 179.4

94.667.277.882.480.5

87.587.788.889.089.188.186.78fi. 3

84.383.383.482.782.1

94.766.277.081.781.686.383.2

95.353.765. 177.675.8

87.186.186.584.884.480.777.275.4

74.973.673.271.370.

97.65C.365.277. 177.588.572.7|

93.061.373.773.574.1

87.586.887.086.685.382.579.877.7

76.976.175.675.375.4

94.657.773.772.174.587.575.9

50.259.680.6

88.589.386.485.980.475.72.

8 |71.669.70.368.467.5

105.44.260.179.277.391.869. 5

88.252.863.983.270.6

113.9105.7105.292.091.977.069.271.5

75.073.069.066. 062.3

96.339.862.486.075.5

114.269. 1

98.059.467.184.178.0

84.284.786.286.788.085.583.179.8

76.373.573.572.372.1

98.355.966.382.681.086.373.5

111.52.360.097.085.1

95.998.0

106.0112.1113.4107.498.388.8

82.678.481.682.282.1

107.950.655.290.590.692.781.4

91.566.578.9

86.386.186.386.185.985.184.383.

83.583.082.682.081.6

95.571.487.384.885.8

97.296.996.796.396.295.493.792.5

91.891.191.591.290.4

96.070.486. 7;

94. 173.275.481.2

84.583.683.982.281.481.280.279.5

79.679.178.777.576.8

91.966. 278.677.478.985. 2 | 94.9! 86.982. 5 | 91. 2\ 78. 3|

95.171.775.380.7

85." 6| 79." 2|

73.176.0

77.277.578.178.478.778.578.27S.4

78.378.577.776.876.2

82.762.9

'2! 9•6.06.77.5

88.3

106.7106.4106.7108.1107.6106.7101.497.7

96.794.793.692.191.3

109.070.388.986.495.3

104.393.7

94.71.782.080.681.5

89.389.589.791.191.191.090.489.7

88.388.087.787.387.2

0 101

93.72.181.480.881.5;88. 287.7

.27.7

89.186.686.3

95.895.996.197.097.196.496.896.3

96.696.098.096.396.7

9 101.377.587.386.086.694.296.3

90.755.973.669.469.8

78.778.278.377.175.373.571.270.1

69.768.668.267.266.1

91.952.475. 869.770.778.368.0

82.058.969.868.769.2

80.579.479.077.377.076.275.475.0

75.274.874.473.473.1

82.359.268.969.566.78.974.2

99.072.379.082.683.

88.989.089.489.589.088.6

87.586.786.786.886.5

99.372 378.582.183.687.886.8

1426882

108103

128124125123118112107104

1029'969492

145598

109106129!96!

102.462.573.081.4

86.385.985.585.884.983.82.6

80.378.478.679.479.1

101.961. Ol72.279.980.385.379.2'

70.488.686.188. 1

95.696.096.396.696.395.794.593.2

92.491.290.690.289.5

70.189.186.488.294.490.8

1 Middle of month. 2 Index is as of the 1st of the following month.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Domestic TradeDEPARTMENT store sales during the first 4 weeksin June showed some improvement, narrowing thepercentage declines from a year ago from 19 percent inthe last week in May to 10 percent in the week endedJune 25. Consumer purchasing during May fell belowthat of the comparative period of the previous year forthe seventh consecutive month, the relative decline inthe dollar volume of sales being larger than for any ofthe preceding months. Sales of heavy consumer goodsshowed considerably wider declines than were recordedfor general merchandise and food.

Rural general merchandise sales in May were down13 percent from May 1937, while sales of variety andgrocery chain stores decreased 9 percent and 3 percent,respectively. Department store sales in May declined4 points to 79 (1923-25 = 100), according to the season-ally adjusted index of the Board of Governors of theFederal Reserve System, and were 15 percent belowsales in May 1937. The margin by which sales this yearfell below those of last year varied widely among theFederal Reserve districts, ranging from 5 percent for theDallas district to 27 percent for the Philadelphia area.

May sales of more than 16,000 independent retailfirms in 25 States reporting sales data to the Bureau,and representing all regions excepting New England andthe Middle Atlantic States, were about one-fifth lessthan in May 1937. This compares with an averagedecrease in March and April of 16 percent from the

average for these 2 months last year. May sales were 4}{percent below those in April 1938, with 10 of the 25 Statesreporting increases; 1, no change; and 14, decreases.

Wholesale sales in May, as reported to the Bureauof Foreign and Domestic Commerce by a sample groupof more than 1,900 firms, were 16 percent below those inMay 1937, and were down 1.4 percent from April 1938.As compared with trade in May last year, sales bywholesalers of jewelry were down 33 percent, sales ofelectrical goods were down 30 percent, and furniture,lumber, and hardware sales were down approximately27 percent. Drug, grocery, petroleum, and tobaccowholesalers reported only minor declines from a yearago. An analysis of the inventories of wholesalersindicates that stock liquidation has been proceedingsteadily, if slowly, with the major part of the declineoccurring since the beginning of February.

Manufacturers' sales in May 1938 were more than one-fourth below those of May last year, according to reportsfrom almost 1,100 manufacturers cooperating with theBureau—April sales were down by approximately thesame relative amount from April last year. Everymajor industry group for which sales data are shownrecorded sales lower than those of May 1937. Thesmallest contraction was in the printing, publishing, andallied industries group where the decline was about 10percent. Sales of the iron and steel products groupwere less than half as large as a year ago.

DOMESTIC TRADE STATISTICS

Year and month

Retail trade

Department stores

SalesUnad-just-ed*

Ad-just-

ed*

Stocks 3

Unad-just-

ed

Ad-just-ed)

Com-binedindex

(ChainStore Age)


Chain-store sales

Avg. samemo. 1929-

31 = 100

Grocery storesUnad-just-ed i

Ad-just-ed »

Variety storesUnad-just-

ed^

Ad-just-ed '

Rural sales ofgeneral mer-

chandise

Unad-just-ed i

Ad-just-ed'

New passen-ger-car sales

Unad-just-ed^

Ad-just-ed'


Wholesaletrade

Em-ploy-ment

Payrolls

Monthly aver-age, 1929=100

Commercialfailures

Fail-

Num-ber

Liabll-itlei

Thou-sands

of dolls.


MayJuneJulyA ugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1938:JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay


192919331934

1935193619371938

109677776

95906572

100103101156

7070778680

10057686976

10966757487

93939492949391

10156686667

78736974808586

69

10055666465

79.990.092.0

103.0

112.0114.0114.5113.2117.0114.8109.0111.5

106. 7106.4103. 3105. 0103.3

79.190.694.1

100.4109.4

101.879.984.590.492.0

98.395.391.189.694.794.994.997.0

93.394.195.694.495.0

101.477.883.389.493.998.294.5

100.278.783.389.190.7

96.993.993.093.396.694.494.994.2

96.293.694.791.793.6

108.578.190.086.096.8

98.3100.797.090.699.8

101.5102.7203. 5

71.678.681.795.089.3

69. 580.680.082.887.283.2

108.578.190.086.096. 8

98.3105.9109.0102.4104.5100.0101.2110.3

96. 194.197.292.9

109.560.974.987.6

107.4

119.4117.591.799.0

130.4160.2145.8179.5

86. 690.498.4

107.9103.5

110.352.471.886.095.

107.197.4

116.564.879.793.1

114.3

127.1124.4119.1115.1131.7131. 3118. 6126.4

104.399.9

105. 8112.3110.1

205.059.978. 198.4

138. 6

144.6134.3122.9112.673.282.690.870.1

50.853.676.080.575.8

161. 738.860.687.9106. 7121.667.3

146.042.555.570.093.5

104.099.0104.5120.5105. 0127.089.078.0

65.074.061.060.057.0

99.072.282.882.584.6

90.890.390.691.893.094.093.593.3

91.090.489.188.587.1

97.872.281.783.785.391.589.2

99.053.862.664. 668.2

76.176.376. 979.078.379.378.377.8

75.475.374.774.675.1

97.754.661.864.667.774.675.0

1,846942

1,004832

670618707564768786932

1,3201,0711,0881.1161, 053

2, 1831,0731,026908794

1,130

43, 46920, 78714, 33915,375

8,3648, 1917,76611,9168,3939, 33510, 07813, 291

15, 03513, 35915, 56720, 10614, 559

55,71122, 69315, 21015, 5999, 32515, 725

1 Adjusted for number of working days. 2 Adjusted for seasonal variations. 3 End of month.



EmploymentCONTRASEASONAL declines in employment inMay, revealed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,were due largely to curtailment of forces in factories,mines, and railroads, and in retail and wholesale trade.During the first 4 months of the year employment didnot record the usual seasonal increase, and, with theMay decline, the number at work dropped to the lowestpoint since early in 1936. These data, which cover allpersons engaged in gainful work outside of agriculture(excluding employment on W. P. A. and other emergencyprojects), indicate that since September 1937 the drop inemployment has amounted to about 3,300,000 workers.

In factories, the May decline in employment exceededthat usually experienced, the seasonally adjusted indexreceding 1.6 points to 77.6 (1923-25 = 100). Factorypay rolls also were lower in May, but the relative de-crease was less than that recorded for employment.Since last fall, however, the drop in weekly wage pay-ments has amounted to 31 percent, as compared with adecline of 23 percent in employment. The decline inthe number of workers and in pay rolls has been muchmore severe in the durable than in the nondurable goodsindustries.

In May, 11 of the 14 major groups into which manu-facturing industries are classified reported declines inemployment; for pay rolls, there were 7 declines in themajor groups and a similar number of increases. Themost pronounced declines, those which occurred in

textiles, particularly wearing apparel, and in leatherand its products, were in part seasonal; in wearingapparel establishments, however, the decline was abouttwice that usually experienced, so that the adjustedemployment index dropped more than 5 points to thelowest level since 1932. Machinery industries andtransportation equipment plants also reported markedreductions in employment. The agricultural-imple-ment industry continued to make a relatively favorableshowing and although the number at work in theseplants has recorded a decline of about 17 percent sincelast fall, employment is at a much higher level than inmost other industries, when comparison is made withthe 1923-25 base. Increases in employment in Maywere largely of a seasonal nature and for the most partwere restricted to manufacturers of stone, clay, andglass products, and food and kindred items.

Among the 16 nonmanufacturing industries reportingemployment data to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, theonly increases of more than 1 percent in May wereseasonal gains reported for quarrying and nonmetallicmining, and building construction. Wholesale and re-tail trade both showed seasonal declines, the recessionin retail general merchandising establishments beingsomewhat sharper than usual. The mining industries,except quarrying, all recorded declines, with anthraciteproducers reporting the sharpest drop in the number ofworkers.

STATISTICS OF EMPLOYMENT, PAY ROLLS, AND WAGES

Year and month


MayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1938:JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay


1929 __193319341935193619371938

Factory employmentand pay rolls

Employment

Unad-justed

Ad-justed

Pa;Payoils

Unad-justed

Monthh average,1923-2:.= 100

105.2 ! 105.4 ! 112.965.8 | 65.986. 2 I 85. 9 68. 184.8 I 84.6 69.4

' S9.8

Nonmanufacturing employment and pay rolls, unadjusted(U. S. Department of Labor)

Anthracitemining1

Em-ploy-ment

Payrolls

Bituminouscoal mining1

Em-ploy-ment

Payrolls

Electric lightand power

and manu-factured gasEm-ploy-ment

Payrolls

Telephoneand tele-

graph

Em- I

Retail trade

Em-ploy- Payrolls

M o n t h l y average, 1926 = 100

,9.8 | 89.8 80.8 !

102. 3101. 1101.4102. 3102. 1100.594. 788.6

82.282. 381.779.677.5

I 103.6

102. 2101.4103.0102. 4100. 798 494. 189. 0

84.283.081. 6

17.G

63. 382.884. 9

105.2102. 9iuO. 4103.8100.1100.189. 580. 9

71.773.273. 370.76514

109.840. 563. 569.6

88. 1100.2 i !

77.099. 5

103. 550.773.365. 066.2

61.561.654.349.758.161.560.9(31.4

59.660. 059.357.052.8

102.559.372.668.2

98. 9

66. 962.9

33.167.954.261.2

48.255.338.229.634.255. 449. 051.3

46.546.147.339.03S.3

100.146.271.256.656.249.94-1 4

96.:72. 891.393.594.2

96.196.293.797.499.4

102.4101.499.4

9fi.895.493. 185. 8S5J.6

91.34. 364.060.972.5

79.483.377. 786.390. 9

100.791. 195. 1

70.274.0 j68.5 I56 3 !55.7 !

98. 4 | 98. 176.9 | 69.983. 183. 3 79. 889. 0 87. 0

94.696. 397.598.398.698.597.396. 1

100.4 j 99.470. 1 j 68. 570.2 j 71.470.0 73.771. 6 I 78. 5

103. 1 102. 277. 4 38. 689.8 | 63.096. 4 69. 197. 3

100. 280.5 |87.3 !64. 9

94.0 .92.9 |92.291.8

94.577. 282.182.687.292. 9

97.9100. 4102. 2102. 6104.0105. 3103. 8102.4

98. 998. 598.697.697. 5

78.579.779.879.879. 678.978.0

74.874.8

94.3 i 96.971.2 I 72.875. 6 i 70. 178. 9 I 70. 085.794.898, ?

70. 5

89.588. 692.192.192.394.991.494.7

93. 789.592.391.69 1 . 0

96.870.369. 573 876^6So. 891.fi

98. 672*. i82.982.285.0

89.990. 587. 686 290". 792. i5)1.7

100. 4

84. 182.483.088.283.8

97.271. 481.380.9

87.6 !84. 3 f

98.251.361.562. 065. 8

73.574.472.872.374.475.975. 380. 6

70. 168.468.672 2

51.860. 160.863. 770. 469. 9

I WagesTrade-unionmem-

bers em-ployed

(National Indus-trial Conference

Board)Average | Averageweekly I hourly

earnings; earningsPercent Iof total

members IDollars

\7983 j

89 !89 |89 ;88 i88 I88 i86 i83 |

I80 j79798081

87 I66

80 !87 !80 i

28. 8116. 8320.8021. 7324.41

28.3628. 3927.8327.7627. 3927.1225 5924! 36

22. 9823.5323.6323.53

n.m \28.8115.8620.1721.8423.7927.34?3.41 :

Com-monlaborrates(roadbuild-ing

592453586598616 I

698707711713716716717715

710710714717717

Gemsper

huur

4341

394141

43434138

3335

* See footnote marked " t " on p. 29. 2 Adjusted for seasonal variations.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


FinanceTHE decline in stock prices was arrested in June bya moderate advance during the first 3 weeks,followed by a sharp rally during the final week of themonth. The volume of trading was exceptionally smalluntil the upturn in prices after June 20. In the weekended June 25, industrials advanced 17 percent, rail-roads 29 percent, and utilities 11 percent.

In the capital market the feature of the month wasthe offering of $100,000,000 of 10-year debentures by aleading industrial corporation. The June 15 financingof the Treasury was limited to an exchange of new bondsand notes for maturing obligations. The extreme easein the money market was indicated by the fall in theTreasury bill rate to 0.016 percent for the offering ofJune 20.

An expected development during June in the bankingsphere was the further increase in the total and excessreserves of member banks as a result of the continueddisbursement by the Treasury of the proceeds of golddesterilization. Total reserves increased $300,000,000to $7,922,000,000 between May 18 and June 22. Excessreserves rose during this period by $227,000,000 to$2,782,000,000. At the same time Treasury depositswith Federal Reserve Banks were drawn down $354,-000,000 to $929,000,000; and the total credit base wasexpanded by $80,000,000 chiefly because of the increaseof $65,000,000 in monetary gold stock. Other factors(increases in Treasury cash, and in nonmember bankdeposits), involving the utilization of $134,000,000,accounted for the difference between the rise in totalreserves and the combined change in Treasury depositsand in the credit base.

The failure of excess reserves to rise to the extent ofthe increase in total reserves was the result of an in-

crease in required reserves—the consequence, in turn, ofthe addition of almost $370,000,000 to the demandliabilities of weekly reporting member banks duringthe 5-week period ended June 22. During this sameperiod, the total loans and investments of reportingmember banks decreased by $107,000,000. Holdingsof Government and Government-guaranteed obliga-tions declined by $80,000,000, and holdings of othersecurities rose by $102,000,000. Loans to commerce,industry, and agriculture continued to decline, whileloans to brokers and dealers in securities increased.

The foreign-exchange markets reacted during Junein the usual manner to renewed rumors of a reductionin the gold buying price of the United States Treasuryand to repeated official denials that a reduction wascontemplated. During the period from late May tomid-June, under the influence of these rumors, theprincipal European currencies showed generally firmtendencies in terms of dollars. At the same time astrong hoarding demand for gold appeared in theLondon market. This demand was reflected in a risein the sterling price of gold on June 17 to a new highfor the year and, together with the high quotation forsterling, in a rise in the dollar price of gold in Londonabove the parity price of $35 an ounce. Following the"formal and complete" denial by the Secretary of theTreasury on June 20 that further devaluation of thedollar was contemplated, the exchanges moved in favorof the dollar.

Imports of gold into the United States during recentweeks included, besides the regular arrivals from gold-producing countries, additional receipts from Japan andsubstantial receipts from the United Kingdom and fromSweden.

FINANCIAL STATISTICSReporting Member Banks, Wednesday

closest to end of month

Year and month

FederalReservebankcreditout-

stand-i n g ,

end ofmonth

Mon-etarygoldstock

Cur-rencyin cir-cula-tion

Excessreserves

ofmemberbanks,end ofmonth

Loans

Total

Com'l,indus-trial,

and ag-ricul-tural J

Invest-ments

Deposits

De-mand,

ad-justed

Time

Millions of dollars

Stockprices

(Stand-ard

Statis-tics)

Alllistedbonds.

do-mestic,aver-age

price(N. Y.S. E.)

Dollars

Capital flotations,corporate

Newcapital

Refund-ing

Thous. of dollars

Dividendrate,

averageper

share(600

com-panies)

Dollars

Interestrates,com-

mercialpaper

(4-6months)

Percent


MayJune.JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1938:JanuaryFebruaryMarch—AprilMay

1,3602,2182, 4632, 4692,474

2, 5852, 5622,5742,5772,5792,5802, 6062,612

—-I

2.5932,5902,6112, 5942,582

4,0054,0267,7598,75510, 324

11,90112,1S912,40412, 51212. 65312, 782! 2, 78812, 765

12, 75612, 76812, 77812, 82912, 891

4, 3975, 5895, 3555, 5075, 918

6,4266, 4356. 4756, 5006, 5586, 5666, 5586,618

6,3976,3196,338G, 3376,415

3391, 6622,3182, 866

918865791773

1,0381, 0551,1691,212

1,3831,4151,5462, 5482, 568

16, 202 I8,9528,513 I8, 1118, 626

9,5719, 7609,78410,02710, 0049. 6259,4419,387

8, 9818,9338,7718, 5878,334

4,2704,3314, 4254,6384,8074,7614,6374, 601

4, 3944,3574,2994,1873,992

5,7988,2329, 82511,67613, 522

12, 58712, 53012, 49912, 29212,02212,02911,94012,015

12, 25312, 29812, 03912, 25712, 202

12, 79111,25713, 06812, 55614, 580

15, 27415,18715, 03314, 92414, 86414, 61014, 61214,431

14,46414,38114, 26814, 59814, 589

6, 7654, 6544,9414, 9355,035

5,2315,2355, 2685, 2685,2905,2785,2345, 205

5,2255,2605,2215, 2305,216

187.861.571.873.1

101.0

116.3113.6117.8120. 5106. 491.482.982.2

81.680.777.970.773.9

97. 2184. 7392. 3292. 8197. 38

96.7995. 8496.8295. 6494. 5493.1792.3692. 75

923, 0463,584

28, 82345,19337, 608

81, 011268, 946

81, 74550, 673

112,75766, 64726, 94242, 767

9164 45,53392. 44 40, 80288.71 [ 23,99590.84 12,31390.81 | 35,935

390, 84812, 050

2, 95881, 567

267, 385

92, 220149, 341

56, 78156,13639, 38669, 65310.12014,463

3. 77362, 22557, 64366, 50025, 692

1. 061.181.291.50

2.092.092.122.132.132.132.192.18

1.931.631.571.551.43

H34-1

1 This item was first reported by the Federal Reserve in May 1937; see footnote marked "" on p. 32 of this issue.76181—38 3Digitized for FRASER


18 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Julv 1938

Foreign TradeTHE slowing up in the foreign demand for UnitedStates merchandise which has been in evidence forseveral months was reflected in the foreign trade figuresfor May. Exports, which had held up remarkably wellduring the present set-back in business, declined 6 per-cent in value from April and for the first time in a yearand a half were smaller in value than in the correspond-ing month of the previous year. General imports,which have tended downward since early in 1937, were7 percent smaller in May than in April and only aboutone-half as great as in May 1937.

As a consequence of the sharp reduction in the valueof imports as compared with a year ago, the value ofmerchandise exports exceeded the value of imports byover $100,000,000 in May as in other recent months.The amount by which the value of merchandise exports hasexceeded the value of merchandise imports was increasedto a total of $544,226,000 for the first 5 months of 1938.

The increased agricultural production in the UnitedStates during 1937 as compared with 1936, when thedrought cut output, is responsible in large part for themarked change in the composition of foreign trade inMay 1938. The value of exports of agricultural prod-ucts was 33 percent larger in May 1938 than in May1937, whereas the value of agricultural imports showeda reduction of 55 percent. Agricultural productsaccounted for 25 percent of the total value of exports inMay as against 17 percent in May 1937.

Exports in May of the other three classes of commod-ities, crude materials, semimanufactures, and finishedmanufactures, were lower in value than in May a yearago. Exports of finished manufactures, however, whichshowed a much less marked decline than the crude ma-terials and semimanufactures, contributed slightly morethan 50 percent of total exports, approximately thesame proportion as in May 1937. Exports of somefinished manufactures, cotton cloth, motor fuel, metal-working machinery, and aircraft, increased. However,shipments of a number of leading manufactures, amongthem motor trucks, passenger automobiles, electricrefrigerators, radio apparatus, and steel manufactures,dropped much lower in May than a year ago.

The depressed state of domestic business, as well asthe recovery of agriculture from the drought conditionof 1936, contributed to the reduction in imports duringMay. Unmanufactured wool imports were only 4,029,-000 pounds as compared with almost 30,000,000 poundsin May 1937, and rubber imports were 62,963,000pounds as compared with 109,531,000 pounds in May1937. Imports of grains and preparations in May wereonly $600,000, as compared with $11,200,000 in thecorresponding month last year. Imports of finishedmanufactures, particularly newsprint and burlaps, weremaintained at fairly high levels in May 1938, and the de-cline in total imports of finished manufactures, althoughsubstantial, was less marked than for total imports.

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

Year and month

1929: May1933- May1934: May1935: May1936: May1937:

MayJuneJulyAugustSeptember .OctoberNovemberDecember

1938:January __ ._FebruaryMarch.AprilMay

Cumulative, January throughMay:

192919331934_ .193519361937—1938__._

Indexes

Valueof

totalex-

ports,ad-

justed i

Valueof

totalim-

ports,ad-

justed i

Month ly aver-age, 1923-25=100

10832454656

8179807974727279

7576727672

3 1173 293 453 453 513 673 72

122

475258

8693897976686965

5251484645

3 1203 293 453 523 603 863 51

Ex-ports,

in-clud-ing

reex-ports

385. 0114.2160. 2165. 5200. 8

289. 9265. 4268. 2277.7296. 7333. 1314. 7319.3

289.4262. 7275.7274. 5257. 2

9 929 9549. 5865. 5853. 9969. 3

1, 269. 51, 359. 5

Total

377. 1111.8157. 2159.8197. 0

285. 1256.5264.8274. 2293. 5329.8311.2315.3

286.1260 0270.8271.5253. 6

2 191.7539. 4850.3 !835.8 1954. 1 i

1, 249. 21, 342. 0

Exports of I

Crudematerials

Total

! 57.4i 35.0 !1 38.0

36. 942.6

52.042.034.446.080.988.384.975.9

67.948 247.044.534.8

4°x 0167 1 1253.6 'l

| 216.3 ;237.4 i

1 269.5 1! 242.4 !

Un-man-ufac-turedcot-ton

32.626 117.619.422.2

24.616.89.4

15.939.045.043.739.9

34.621.223.120.110.4

288.9111.4155. 8

! 122.2131.5159. 0109. 5

Jnited States merchandise

Food-stuffs,total

57.113 016.815.415.9

16.316.017.427.426.838.832.934.0

40.339 435.538.648.2

316.066. 797.077.077.685.9

202.0

Semi-man-ufac-tures

59.817.626.226.435.0

71.863.368.967.255.459.057.053.5

44.141 746.246.342.0

320. 878.6

136. 3136. 0158.3252. 9220. 9

Finishedmanufactures

TotalMa-

chin-ery

vlillions of dollar

202.7 I46.276.2 !81.0

103. 4

145.0135.2144.0133.6130.4143.7136.4151.9

133.9130.6142.1142.2128. 0

1,127. 0226. 9363. 4406. 5480.8640.9676.7 I

47.79. 1

, 17.022.129.6

42.340.846.140.839.044.637.744.7

39.741.446.145.642.4

959 g

45. 183.4

105.5138.2185.8215.2

Auto-mo-biles,parts,and

acces-sories

s

43.37.420.6

18.622.5

33.229.729.423.123.325.429.839.7

34.428.128.826.420.6

289.234.686.7

103.4113.7146. 3138. 2

Total

1

400.1106. 9147.5166. 8189.0

278.8278.7263.4249.0234.1226.5212.4203.7

163. 5155.9173.3155. 5147.2

1, 933. 0469.9696.1829.0959.0

1, 345. 4795.5

Imports

Crudema-

terials

i

141.724.942.944.355.1

91.892.577.679.676.071.767.568.5

51.846.751.243.840.2

707.4117.9202.1228. 6291.5440.1233.8

Food-stufls

88.940. 046.955.056.3

84.580.177.566.956.953.051.550.4

44.147.155.549.545.7

443.6167.1218.9287.9301.2417.5241.9

Semi-man-ufac-tures

86.018.326.833.638.6

55.858.959.654.852.651.946.443.6

32.929.732.128.627.8

380.976.4

131.1158.3192.6267.0151.2

Fin-ishedman-ufac-tures

83.523.630.833.939.1

46.747.248.847.748.650.047.041.3

34.632.534.533.633.4

401. 1108.4144.0154.2173.7220.9168.7

Adjusted for seasonal variations. » General imports through December 1933; imports for consumption thereafter. »Monthly average.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Construction and Real EstateTHE dollar value of total construction contractsawarded in the first half of June was 18 percentlower than daily average awards in May, largely as aresult of a reduction in public works and utilities projectswhich were placed in large volume in May. Contractslet in the first half of June were 19 percent below thosein the comparable period last year. Awards for thefirst 6 months of 1938 will fall approximately 12 percentbelow total awards during the first half of 1937.

There was a substantial increase in construction con-tracts awarded in May, following a slight decline inApril, and awards for the month were 16 percent abovethe total for May 1937. Contracts let in the 37 Statescovered by the Dodge statistics totaled $283,156,000,the largest dollar volume recorded in any month sinceJuly of last year. The increase in May was primarilyin the heavy engineering classification, which was aug-mented by a project of $22,000,000 for a water-supplytunnel. Private construction awards were 8 percentbelow the dollar volume for May of last year, whilepublicly financed work was 55 percent above last year.

The dollar volume of residential contracts awardedin May, on a daily average basis, increased 16 percentover April, and was only 1 percent below May 1937.

For the first 5 months of this year residential contractswere 26 percent below the corresponding months of lastyear. The contract statistics for