oerc delphipresentation final
TRANSCRIPT
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Drivers and transitions for global transport: preliminary results from
an international Delphi study
Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering
Energy Cultures II Project, Centre for Sustainability
November 2013
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Background
A workstream of Energy Cultures 2 research programme:“…what is possible with new technologies and practices for energy efficiency and conservation?”
The current fossil fuel-dominated transport system:– contributed 22% of total GHG emissions in 2010– is vulnerable to shocks in oil supply and pricing
These twin challenges of climate change and oil insecurity can be addressed, in part, by a global transition to low-carbon, energy-efficient (“sustainable”) transport systems.
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Method: The Delphi Technique
An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics
A panel of global experts:
Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).
Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour
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Stages
• Round Zero: Skype-based interviews with 6 key panel members
• Round One: A qualitative internet-based survey sent to 30 panel members, 23 responses received
• Round Two: A quantitative internet-based survey sent to 30 panel members, 22 responses received
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Characteristics of a sustainable transport system
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Characteristics of a sustainable transport system
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Change Trends
Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = highPo
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4 51
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High – High:A : Increasing investment in public transportB: Uptake of travel substitution technologiesC: Increasing public environmental concernD: Uptake of efficient carsE: Uptake of electric vehiclesF: Uptake of active transport
Low potential to transformHigh likelihood of becoming widespread:I: Decreasing youth car ownershipJ: Uptake of shared personal transportK: Decreasing youth car licensing
High potential to transformLow likelihood of becoming widespread:G: Uptake of autonomous vehiclesH: Substantial reduction in VKT
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Discontinuities
Likelihood of occurring within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = highPo
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High – High:A: Political instability in oil-rich countriesB: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologiesC: Increased public and political concern about climate change
Low potential to transformHigh likelihood of occurring:D: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countriesE: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected
High potential to transformLow likelihood of occurring:F: Global price on carbonG: Acute resource scarcityH: Significant global economic decline
E
Low - Low:I: Political instability in China and/or IndiaJ: Readily available oil sources foundK: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion
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Material culture
PracticesNorms
Transport Culture
Changing transport cultures
Do
Have
Think
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Changes in material culture…
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Changes in practices…
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Changes in norms…
collaborative cultures
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Where & how these are coalescing to become transport transitions
Material culture
PracticesNorms
Masdar’s EC of Experimentation
London’s EC of Diversity
Beijing’s EC of Speed
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Conclusions
• Agreement over the need for transition to a ‘sustainable transport system’
• Evidence of changing transport energy cultures globally
• Potential for significant future change
• Round 3 will invite ideas on relevance to NZ
• This will inform a New Zealand-based Delphi in 2014