obsolescence in complicated machines

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  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    Obsolescence in complicated machinesCase based on the B52 bomber

    Obsoleszenz, Formen und Handlungsalternativen Airbus Defence in Manching

    3 March 2016

    Dr Shaun West

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    OutlineFour points relating to obsolescence will be discussed

    Obsolescence: the manufacturers point of view

    Obsolescence: the owner/operators point of view

    Obsolescence: cradle-to-grave life-cycle management

    Obsolescence occurs for many reasons we need to understand how to take advantage of it. The B52 bomber will be used as an extreme case.

    Obsolescence: a service opportunity

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    What does Wikipedia say?

    Obsolescence From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Obsolescence is the state of being which occurs when an object, service, or practice is no longer wanted even though it may still be in good working order. Obsolescence frequently occurs because a replacement has become available that has, in sum, more advantages than the inconvenience related to repurchasing the replacement. Obsolete refers to something that is already disused or discarded, or antiquated. Typically, obsolescence is preceded by a gradual decline in popularity.

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The presentation will be use the B52 as an example

    The B52 flying today is very different to the B52 that was flying in 1952

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The presentation will be use the B52 as an example

    https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R43049.pdf

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    OBSOLESCENCE: THE MANUFACTURER

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The manufacturer Looking at the B52

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

    The B52 as a product- Development 1946- First flight 1952- Entered service 1955- Operational life approx. 20 years- Role as a strategic nuclear bomber

    Most of the B52s were built over a 7 year period

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The manufacturer How does the B52 compare with the classic product development life-cycle?

    The B52 as a product- Development 1946- First flight 1952- Entered service 1955- Operational life approx. 20 years- Role as a strategy bomber

    The B52 follows the classic product development life-cycle curve

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The manufacturer B52s have been flying for over 65 years

    The B52 as a product- Development 1946- First flight 1952- Entered service 1955- Operational life approx. 20 years- Role as a strategy bomber

    Not all boxes in the total cost of ownership life cycle analysis have equal duration

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    OBSOLESCENCE: THE OWNER/OPERATOR

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The owner/operatorWhat was the job at the B52 was specified for?

    The role of the B52 has continually changed since 1947

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The owner/operator How has the owner managed obsolesce? What do they understand with obsolesce?

    Boeing and others have been providing new technologies to support the B52

    - Combat network communications technology (CONECT)

    - Military-standard-1760 modernization - B-52 trainer upgrades - Arms control activities under the New START - Mode S/5 identification friend or foe (IFF) - Low cost modifications - B-52 anti-skid replacement - B-52 modernization research development test and evaluation efforts

    - Internal weapons bay upgrade (IWBU)

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The owner/operator Todays operational assumptions for the B52

    - The B-52H will conduct its assigned nuclear mission through 2040.

    - The B-52H will continue to conduct its assigned conventional mission through 2040.

    - The B-52H fleet size will consist of not more than 76 airframes through 2040.

    - Conversion of a required number of B-52Hs to a conventional-only role by 2018

    - for New START compliance. - The current B-52H service life goal is 2040. - There will be no change to current B-52H basing.

    Important to understand the operational assumptions

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    The owner/operator How has the owner managed obsolesce? What do they understand with obsolesce?

    Boeing and others have been providing new technologies to support the B52

    - Combat network communications technology (CONECT)

    - Military-standard-1760 modernization - B-52 trainer upgrades - Arms control activities under the New START - Mode S/5 identification friend or foe (IFF) - Low cost modifications - B-52 anti-skid replacement - B-52 modernization research development test and evaluation efforts

    - 1760 internal weapons bay upgrade (IWBU)

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    OBSOLESCENCE: CRADLE-TO-GRAVE LIFE-CYCLE

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    Cradle-to-grave life-cycle The consider the cradle-to-grave life-cycle and how and where the costs build up

    All tasks have a cost and a risk associated with time

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    Cradle-to-grave life-cycle Risks from obsolescence to any other changes must be over come

    Many of the changes are unexpected, some are due to obsolescence

    Changes in operation/mission - Input costs (eg, increase in fuel cost)- Operational use (eg, insurgence)- Adjacent equipment (eg, guided bombs)- New comers (eg, ground to air missiles)- Changes in ownership (eg, sold to the French)- Environmental regulations (eg, noise)Technology- Control systems technologies (eg, new computers)- Communication system (eg, GPS)- Structural failures (eg, cracking in airframe)- Old technologies no longer supported (sub-supplier)- Production technologies (eg, additive machining)

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    Cradle-to-grave life-cycle Is the customer side of the customer value proposition well defined?

    A check list for customer jobs- What jobs are you being asked to perform?- How do you fit into their processes?- Do you know why you are being asked to do these jobs?

    - Are there jobs that you could do better than the customer?

    - Are there jobs others in your ecosystem could better perform?

    - Are there jobs the customer could better perform?

    We assume we know the customer jobs, what about the pains and gains?

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    Cradle-to-grave life-cycle Creating a customer value proposition

    Supporting the owner/operator in a long-term relationship requires sensitivity

    Process- The value proposition helps described the problem and the solution

    - The solution is situation specific- The situation may be driven by owner or supplier (push or pull)

    Considerations- Value propositions requires value on both sides- If no equitable exchange one party feels aggrieved- Forced up-grade can feel one sided

    West!&!Pascual!

    Proceedings!of!the!Spring!Servitization!Conference!(SSC2015)!

    Figure!6.!!The!examples!developed!by!both!firms!only!considered!single!events!and!were!considered!confidential.!!

    !Figure!3:!Every!activity!should!have!a!customer!value!proposition!associated!with!it!

    !It! was! clear! after! the! workshops! that! all! of! the! tasks! should! have! a! customer! value! proposition!associated!with! them!and! this! is! confirmed!by!Anderson! (2008)!and!Osterwalder! (2014)!who!state!that! a! customer! value! proposition! should! be! created! for! all! products! and! services.! ! Before! the!workshops,!it!was!considered!that!this!might!not!be!the!case.!!However,!the!insights!that!it!provides!into!customer!drivers!suggest!that!good!practice!would!require!this.!!Side!discussions!concerning!the!customer!journey!during!the!creation!of!the!customer!value!proposition!suggests!that!this!may!also!be!a!useful!tool!to!be!employed!where!the!customer!interactions!are!either!major!pains!or!gains.!!4.6$Anticipated$extensions$to$this$methodology$It!is!anticipated!that!by!extending!this!methodology!it!should!be!possible!to:!

    ! estimate!the!total!market!value!and!identify!the!share!of!spend!(or!faithfulness);!! forecast!sales!with!timing!of!owner's!spends;!! identify!trigger!points!for!conversions,!modifications!and!updates;!! combine!with!the!customer!journey!mapping.!

    $5.$$CONCLUSIONS$The!prototyping!of!the!combination!of!the!two!tools!was!successful.!!Using!the!equipment!life

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    OBSOLESCENCE: A SERVICE OPPORTUNITY

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    A service opportunity Other long-life equipment and systems can provide service opportunities

    Every year the installed base grows at a predicable rate (use may be less predicable)

  • Service Innovation | Dr Shaun West

    A service opportunity Capabilities for supporting obsolete equipment

    GE Healthcare Multi-Vendor Services Technical Center of ExcellenceWhere multi-vendor service originates.

    How can GE Healthcare excel at servicing all major brands of imaging systems? For the answer, look to Arlington, Texas.

    The GE Multi-Vendor Services Technical Center of Excellence (TCOE) annually trains some 350 GE field and online engineers on more than 50 non-GE imaging devices. They look inside, pull them apart, and practice maintenance, repairs, trouble-shooting and more. So a GE engineer arriving to maintain or service your multi-vendor equipment, has seen it before and can get right to work with focus, efficiency, speed, and precision.

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