observed and simulated variability of the north atlantic subpolar gyre helge drange & co g. c....

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Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Beijing, China

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Page 1: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Helge Drange & CoG. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway Nansen-Zhu International

Research Centre, Beijing, China

Page 2: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

NOClim-cite

d:

Curry & Mauritz

en (2005); H

atun et al. (

2005)

NOClim-re

levant:

Orvik and Skagseth (2005); M

auritzen et a

l. (2006);

Siegismund et al. (

2006)

Page 3: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 4: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 5: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 6: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Essentially Curry & Mauritz

en, Science, 2005

Page 7: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 8: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 9: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

~300.000 hydrogrphic profiles (NISE)

Page 10: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 11: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 12: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 13: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Orv

ik, K

jell

Aril

d; S

kags

eth,

Øys

tein

(20

05),

Hea

t flu

x va

riatio

ns in

the

east

ern

Nor

weg

ian

Atla

ntic

Cur

rent

tow

ard

the

Arc

tic fr

om m

oore

d in

stru

men

ts, 1

995–

2005

. Geo

ph. R

es. L

ett.,

32,

No.

14,

L14

610

10.1

029/

2005

GL0

2348

7

Page 14: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Orv

ik, K

jell

Aril

d; S

kags

eth,

Øys

tein

(20

05),

Hea

t flu

x va

riatio

ns in

the

east

ern

Nor

weg

ian

Atla

ntic

Cur

rent

tow

ard

the

Arc

tic fr

om m

oore

d in

stru

men

ts, 1

995–

2005

. Geo

ph. R

es. L

ett.,

32,

No.

14,

L14

610

10.1

029/

2005

GL0

2348

7

Page 15: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Orv

ik, K

jell

Aril

d; S

kags

eth,

Øys

tein

(20

05),

Hea

t flu

x va

riatio

ns in

the

east

ern

Nor

weg

ian

Atla

ntic

Cur

rent

tow

ard

the

Arc

tic fr

om m

oore

d in

stru

men

ts, 1

995–

2005

. Geo

ph. R

es. L

ett.,

32,

No.

14,

L14

610

10.1

029/

2005

GL0

2348

7

“...The extreme temperature increase of 1 oC appears, however, to be independent of the current strength. A future challenge here will be to reveal

the cause of this extraordinary warming...”

Page 16: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 17: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

R

I

F

Page 18: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Altimetry

MICOM

SSH EOF

I

I

F

F

R

R

The subpolar gyre influence

(Häkkinen and Rhines, Science, 2004)

Page 19: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

RI

A longer term perspective

Page 20: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Observed and simulated salinity anomalies from about 1970 to present

Observed Simulated

Irminger (I) Faroe (F) Rockall (R)

Page 21: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

(inverted)

WNAW

ENAW

Fresh Saline

The gyre shape and the Rockall Trough

Page 22: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Important: Relationship valid for temperature also!

Page 23: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

EOF1 Wind stress curl (26%) EOF1 Buoyancy flux (19%)

Red: SSH PC1 Black: SLP PC1 Green: PC1 Wind stress Blue: PC1 Buoyancy flux

Page 24: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Volume of LSW in layers 15 and 16 and the GI

Page 25: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 26: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 27: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 28: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 29: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Page 30: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 31: Observed and simulated variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre Helge Drange & Co G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway

The dynamics of the N-Atl subpolar gyre is of key importance for the poleward transport of heat and salt

The dynamics of the N-Atl subpolar gyre is largely governed by winter time bouyancy forcing

Decadal-scale coupled atm-ocean mode possible - needs investigation! (coupled model system required)

Current generation of OGCMs is able to complement observations

NOClim has provided important insight into the variability of the (marine) climate of the N-Atl

Summary: