obama’s first 90 days

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34 Harvard Business Review | Month 2009 | hbr.org

Obama’sFirst 90 DaysEarly wins and a strong team mean a

successful start for the U.S. president.

LEADERSHIP IS A momentum game – which is why there’s

such incredible pressure on business executives in new roles to

get it “just right” in their first ew months. The senior leader’s

early actions end up having a disproportionate impact on ev-

erything that ollows. Stakeholders parse every word, gesture,

and decision, straining to discern intent and assess credibility.

Feedback loops, both positive and negative, are established.

Momentum or organizational change builds – or doesn’t.

This complex transition dynamic is no diferent – and no eas-

ier to manage – in government. What Barack Obama achieved

in his first 90 days won’t guarantee him wild success or therest o his our-year term; nor will it necessarily doom him to

ailure. But how he has handled the transition matters a great

deal, especially given the national turnaround he’s acing. As

a result o my decades-long research in the area o executive

transitions, I find it most useul to evaluate the efectiveness

o new leaders along three critical dimensions: Securing early

wins. Did the new leader build credibility by scoring early vic-

tories while avoiding or mitigating losses? Laying a foundation.

Did the new leader lay the groundwork or accomplishing top

priorities within his first year? Articulating a vision. Did the new

leader begin to clearly express an inspiring vision or what he

will accomplish during his tenure?A weakness in any one o these dimensions can signal trou-

ble ahead, and serious problems in all three are a sure sign

that the transition is going of the rails. So, how did President

Obama are in his first 90 days?

Securing Early Wins

The first goal or a new leader is to build credibility and create

a general sense among employees (or, in this case, citizens)

that momentum is building or positive change. That means

making the right symbolic gestures, identiying and securing

Big PictureBY MICHAEL D. WATKINS



hbr.org | June 2009 | Harvard Business Review 35

early substantive wins, and avoiding

early losses.

Obama accomplished all that and

more in his first 90 days. Once in the Oval

Of ce, he ordered the Guantánamo Bay

detention center closed, removed restric-

tions on unding stem-cell research, estab-

lished a time rame or ending the war in

Iraq, and released documents outlining

policy on the interrogation o suspected

terrorists – all symbolic moves aimed

at solidiying his Democratic base and

restoring the United States’ reputation

worldwide.

In April 2009 Obama took his first

bows on the global stage, bolstering his

credibility with a strong perormance at

the G-20 summit meeting, his outreach

to Iran, and his eorts to win modest

additional sanctions against North Ko-

rea or deying UN security resolutions

and launching a long-range missile. And

when he approved the use o orce to

ree a U.S. ship captain who had been

captured by Somali pirates, he stifled

those o his critics who said he was too

so and naive when it came to interna-

tional security.

The president has managed to con-

tain, i not extinguish, the “orest fire”

engulfing the entire U.S. financial sys-tem. O course, he has also experienced

a ew minor losses, courtesy o the ail-

ing markets. The negative reaction to

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s

skeletal bank-rescue plan in January,

plus the AIG bonus debacle, raised the

rightening possibility that the new ad-

ministration wasn’t ocused or compe-

tent enough to deal with the nation’s

most pressing concerns. Obama reacted

quickly, however, expressing the right de-

gree o outrage at the bonuses, workingto claw back the payments, developing

and marketing a more detailed financial

rescue plan – and dely switching me-

dia attention to the conservative com-

mentator Rush Limbaugh

and his detrimental eects

on bipartisanship in Wash-

ington. In this first dimen-

sion o executive transition

Obama gets an A.

Laying a Foundation

Solid early wins (and just a

ew losses) constitute a good

start. But new leaders must

also lay the groundwork or

changes in the first year.

A strong team is critical to

that oundation. Even beore

the inauguration, Obama

surrounded himsel with

well qualified and respected of cials

(including Robert M. Gates as secretary

o deense, a holdover rom the Bush

administration).

It wasn’t all smooth sailing: Several se-

nior appointees withdrew because o tax

troubles, and other important appoint-

ments at Treasury came slowly – a result

o the strict vetting process Obama had

established. But Geithner’s Q rating re-

bounded; Gates is using his credibility

to push or reorm at the Department o

Deense; and Secretary o State Hillary

Clinton is helping the president estab-

lish his international agenda with her

valuable political capital and expertise

on the issues. Supportive alliances are

also critical. These, unortunately, have

been slower to develop – in part be-

cause o the time pressures o managing

a turnaround. Obama quickly won pas-sage o a $787 billion stimulus package

and advanced his budget largely on the

strength o Democratic control o Con-

gress. But the bloat associated with the

bill opened him up to attacks rom fiscal

conservatives.

Given his ambitious policy agenda,

especially in education, health care, and

energy, Obama cannot hope to move

things orward without building a stron-

ger coalition at the center. In this second

dimension he earns a solid B+.

Articulating a Vision

Finally, new leaders must immediately

communicate a compelling vision or

what they will do during their

tenure. It must pull people

orward and energize them to

make sacrifices or the great-

er good. Surprisingly, given

his rhetorical skills, Obama

hasn’t ared very well in this

dimension. Although he laid

out a broad agenda during the

campaign, the financial crisis

has largely erased it rom the

public’s consciousness.

More recently, Obama an-

nounced his intent to pursue

complex initiatives in five

policy areas, including health

care reorm and investments in educa-

tion and renewable energy. In a speech

at Georgetown University in April, the

president said he wanted every Ameri-

can to know that “each action we take

and each policy we pursue is driven by a

larger vision o America’s uture – a u-

ture where sustained economic growth

creates good jobs and rising incomes.”

But his pronouncements have lacked

the power (and the details) to motivate

and unite a public conused and right-

ened by the market collapse. As a result,

he earns a B− or the vision thing.

• • •

Some signiicant early wins, success-

ul responses to a ew early losses, and

a smart, supportive team add up to a

solid start or the Obama administra-

tion – particularly given the magnitude

o the challenges conronting the coun-try and the speed with which Obama

has been orced to act. So my overall

grade or him is A−. But I’ll be watching

with interest to see i our new president

can articulate a more compelling vision,

define the balanced policies to achieve it,

and build the moderate coalitions neces-

sary to turn vision into reality.

Michael D. Watkins (mwatkins@genesis

advisers.com) is the cofounder of Genesis

Advisers, a leadership development firm specializing in transition acceleration

programs and coaching. He is the author

of The First 90 Days: Critical Success

Strategies or New Leaders at All Levels

(Harvard Business Press, 2003) and Your

Next Move , forthcoming from Harvard

Business Press.

Reprint R0906C

To order, see page 115.

Comprehensiveanalysis of BarackObama’s first 90days as U.S. presi-dent can be found atobama-90.hbr.org.

hbr.org

SECURINGEARLY WINS

A

LAYING AFOUNDATION

B+

ARTICULATINGA VISION

B-

obama’s first 90 days

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