o* ,Áxqdoc.imedao.com/15d166720c79c123fcf7c31f.pdf · revise down our target price from hk$1.24 to...

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SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | (8621)23297818 www.swsresearch.com Capital Goods | Company Research Bringing China to the World 2017 7 4 中性 下调 乌云密布 江南集团 (01366 HK) Market Data: Jul 3,2017 Closing Price (HK$) 0.68 Price Target (HK$) 0.73 HSCEI 10,412 HSCCI 4,017 52-week High/Low (HK$) 1.66/0.66 Market Cap (USD Mn) 356 Market Cap (HK$ Mn) 2,774 Shares Outstanding (Mn) 4,079 Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$) 1.1453 Price Performance Chart: Source: Bloomberg Analyst Vincent Yu, CFA A0230513070005 BAM599 [email protected] (+86) 21 2329 7301 Related Reports "JIANGNAN GROUP (1366:HK)_ Beyond the bid" Mar 17,2017 Financial summary and valuation 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue (Rmbm) 9,167 9,111 10,574 10,907 11,482 YOY (%) 12.42 (0.61) 16.06 3.14 5.27 Net income (Rmbm) 703 531 227 552 583 YOY (%) 12.34 (24.65) (57.46) 144.11 5.72 EPS (Rmb) 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.14 0.14 Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.14 0.14 ROE (%) 17.31 10.40 4.18 9.66 9.47 Debt/asset (%) 59.60 57.51 56.39 55.13 54.51 Dividend Yield (%) 4.56 4.56 1.68 4.10 4.33 P/E (x) 3.2 4.5 10.7 4.4 4.2 P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 5.1 11.9 5.4 5.1 受到奥凯事件影响,我们预计 2017 年江南集团主营业务成本及管理费用将显著上 升。因此我们调低 EPS 预测如下:2017 年由 0.17 元调至 0.06 元(同比减少 57.7%),2018 年由 0.2 元调至 0.14 元(同比增长 143%),2019 年由 0.22 元调至 0.14 元(同比增长 6%)。为了反映由此带来的成本上升,我们将目标价由 1.24 港币 调至 0.73 港币。现价距目标价仍有 7.4%的上行空间,因此降级至中性。 奥凯事件引发行业强监管。2017 年 3 月,西安地铁被揭露使用陕西奥凯生产的不合 格电缆,对地铁安全运营造成威胁。事件引发监管部门对全国电力电缆行业的全面 质量检查,一定程度上造成整个行业成本增加。一些产品面临退回重新加工的风 险。对于江南集团,我们很难预计受影响产品数量。在模型中,我们假设被退回产 品占 2017 年电缆销售额的 30%,计算得出 2017 年毛利率将由 2016 年的 14.91%下降 至 13.24%。 行业景气度下滑为龙头带来扩张机会。由于受到经济增速放缓及行业公司基数庞大 等因素影响,电缆行业近年增速明显下滑。众多公司 2017 年一季度收入仅实现个位 数增长。铜价高企导致电缆企业主营业务成本上升,毛利润在一定程度上受到挤 压。我们认为行业增速放缓及主营业务成本上升会加速中小企业产能出清,有利于 江南集团等龙头企业拓展市占率。 2017 年应收账款拨备风险。截止 2016 年底,江南集团贸易及其他应收款总额为 38 亿元,占总收入的 41.7%(2015 年该比例为 39.1%)。一般情况下,公司为客户提供 30 至 180 天的信贷期。然而,截止 2016 年底,账龄超过 180 天的贸易应收款项(扣 除呆坏账拨备)及应收票据(按发票日期)总额达到 9.97 亿元,占全部贸易及其他 应收款额的 28.6%(2015 年底该比例为 22.4%)。我们注意到 2016 年,上述 9.97 亿 元没有做任何减值处理,同期呆坏账拨备金额为 6500 万元。因此我们认为 2017 年 公司应收账款存在减值风险,我们的模型中预计 2017 年呆坏账拨备为 8700 万元。 下调至中性。考虑到奥凯事件为电缆行业带来的负面影响及主营业务成本上升,我 们调低 EPS 预测如下:2017 年由 0.17 元调至 0.06 元(同比减少 57.7%),2018 年由 0.2 元调至 0.14 元(同比增长 143%),2019 年由 0.22 元调至 0.14 元(同比增长 6%)。为了反映由此带来的成本上升,我们将目标价由 1.24 港币调至 0.73 港币,代 表着 11.5 倍 17 年 PE 及 0.5 倍 17 年 PB,或 4.7 倍 18 年 PE 及 0.4 倍 18 年 PB。现 价距目标价仍有 7.4%的上行空间,因此降级至中性。 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact [email protected] for relevant disclosure materials or log into www.swsresearch.com under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. -48% 2% 52% JIANGNAN GROUP LTD Hang Seng China Ent Index

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Page 1: O* ,Áxqdoc.imedao.com/15d166720c79c123fcf7c31f.pdf · revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to H K$0.73 , representing 11.5 x 17E PE and 0.5x 17E PB, or 4.7x 18E PE and 0.4x

SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | (8621)23297818 www.swsresearch.com

Capital Goods | Company Research Bringing China to the World

2017 年 7 月 4 日

中性

下调

乌云密布

江南集团 (01366 HK)

Market Data: Jul 3,2017

Closing Price (HK$) 0.68

Price Target (HK$) 0.73

HSCEI 10,412

HSCCI 4,017

52-week High/Low (HK$) 1.66/0.66

Market Cap (USD Mn) 356

Market Cap (HK$ Mn) 2,774

Shares Outstanding (Mn) 4,079

Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$) 1.1453

Price Performance Chart:

Source: Bloomberg Analyst Vincent Yu, CFA A0230513070005 BAM599 [email protected] (+86) 21 2329 7301

Related Reports

"JIANGNAN GROUP (1366:HK)_ Beyond the bid" Mar 17,2017

Financial summary and valuation 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue (Rmbm) 9,167 9,111 10,574 10,907 11,482

YOY (%) 12.42 (0.61) 16.06 3.14 5.27

Net income (Rmbm) 703 531 227 552 583

YOY (%) 12.34 (24.65) (57.46) 144.11 5.72

EPS (Rmb) 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.14 0.14

Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.14 0.14

ROE (%) 17.31 10.40 4.18 9.66 9.47

Debt/asset (%) 59.60 57.51 56.39 55.13 54.51

Dividend Yield (%) 4.56 4.56 1.68 4.10 4.33

P/E (x) 3.2 4.5 10.7 4.4 4.2

P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 5.1 11.9 5.4 5.1

受到奥凯事件影响,我们预计 2017 年江南集团主营业务成本及管理费用将显著上

升。因此我们调低 EPS 预测如下:2017 年由 0.17 元调至 0.06 元(同比减少

57.7%),2018 年由 0.2 元调至 0.14 元(同比增长 143%),2019 年由 0.22 元调至

0.14 元(同比增长 6%)。为了反映由此带来的成本上升,我们将目标价由 1.24 港币

调至 0.73港币。现价距目标价仍有 7.4%的上行空间,因此降级至中性。

奥凯事件引发行业强监管。2017 年 3 月,西安地铁被揭露使用陕西奥凯生产的不合

格电缆,对地铁安全运营造成威胁。事件引发监管部门对全国电力电缆行业的全面

质量检查,一定程度上造成整个行业成本增加。一些产品面临退回重新加工的风

险。对于江南集团,我们很难预计受影响产品数量。在模型中,我们假设被退回产

品占 2017 年电缆销售额的 30%,计算得出 2017 年毛利率将由 2016 年的 14.91%下降

至 13.24%。

行业景气度下滑为龙头带来扩张机会。由于受到经济增速放缓及行业公司基数庞大

等因素影响,电缆行业近年增速明显下滑。众多公司 2017 年一季度收入仅实现个位

数增长。铜价高企导致电缆企业主营业务成本上升,毛利润在一定程度上受到挤

压。我们认为行业增速放缓及主营业务成本上升会加速中小企业产能出清,有利于

江南集团等龙头企业拓展市占率。

2017 年应收账款拨备风险。截止 2016 年底,江南集团贸易及其他应收款总额为 38

亿元,占总收入的 41.7%(2015 年该比例为 39.1%)。一般情况下,公司为客户提供

30 至 180 天的信贷期。然而,截止 2016 年底,账龄超过 180天的贸易应收款项(扣

除呆坏账拨备)及应收票据(按发票日期)总额达到 9.97 亿元,占全部贸易及其他

应收款额的 28.6%(2015 年底该比例为 22.4%)。我们注意到 2016 年,上述 9.97 亿

元没有做任何减值处理,同期呆坏账拨备金额为 6500 万元。因此我们认为 2017 年

公司应收账款存在减值风险,我们的模型中预计 2017 年呆坏账拨备为 8700万元。 下调至中性。考虑到奥凯事件为电缆行业带来的负面影响及主营业务成本上升,我们调低 EPS预测如下:2017 年由 0.17元调至 0.06元(同比减少 57.7%),2018 年由0.2 元调至 0.14 元(同比增长 143%),2019 年由 0.22 元调至 0.14 元(同比增长6%)。为了反映由此带来的成本上升,我们将目标价由 1.24 港币调至 0.73 港币,代表着 11.5 倍 17 年 PE 及 0.5 倍 17 年 PB,或 4.7 倍 18 年 PE 及 0.4 倍 18 年 PB。现价距目标价仍有 7.4%的上行空间,因此降级至中性。

The company does not hold any equities

or derivatives of the listed company

mentioned in this report (“target”), but then

we shall provide financial advisory

services subject to the relevant laws and

regulations. Any affiliates of the company

may hold equities of the target, which may

exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject

to the relevant laws and regulations. The

company may also provide investment

banking services to the target. The

Company fulfills its duty of disclosure

within its sphere of knowledge. The clients

may contact

[email protected] for

relevant disclosure materials or log into

www.swsresearch.com under disclosure

column for further information. The clients

shall have a comprehensive

understanding of the disclosure and

disclaimer upon the last page.

-48%

2%

52%

JIANGNAN GROUP LTD

Hang Seng China Ent Index

Page 2: O* ,Áxqdoc.imedao.com/15d166720c79c123fcf7c31f.pdf · revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to H K$0.73 , representing 11.5 x 17E PE and 0.5x 17E PB, or 4.7x 18E PE and 0.4x

SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | (8621)23297818 www.swsresearch.com

Capital Goods | Company Research Bringing China to the World

We expect Jiangnan Group’s administrative expenses and cost of goods sold to increase in 2017E in the wake of the “Aokai event”, which led to stricter quality supervision and thus higher production costs for electric cable manufacturers. Therefore, we revise down our EPS forecast from Rmb0.17 to Rmb0.06 in 17E (-57.7% YoY), from Rmb0.20 to Rmb0.14 in 18E (+143% YoY), and from Rmb0.22 to Rmb0.14 in 19E (+6% YoY). We also revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to HK$0.73. With 7.4% upside, we downgrade to Hold.

Stricter industry supervision due to “Aokai event”. In March 2017, Xi’an Subway was revealed to use unqualified electric cables produced by Shaanxi Aokai. Following the event, the authorities have called for stricter quality supervision, leading to cost increases in the whole cable and wire industry. Products are also likely to be sent back and re-manufactured. We estimate 30% of expected power cables sales in 2017 need to be reprocessed, which will lead to a gross margin decline for Jiangnan Group from 14.9% in 2016 to 13.2% in 2017E.

Weak industry environment but opportunity to expand market share. Due to the relatively low economic growth and large number of competitors, the cable and wire industry has suffered low growth in recent years. Most companies posted low single digit revenue growth in 1Q17 as well as decreasing gross margin due to high copper prices. However, we believe large industry players like Jiangnan Group will gain market share from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Provision for bad debt likely in 2017E. By end-2016, Jiangnan Group’s trade and other receivables amounted to Rmb3.8bn, accounting for c.41.7% of total revenue (vs 39.1% in 2015). The company’s credit terms usually range from 30 days to 180 days. However, by end-2016, trade and bills receivable over 180 days amounted to Rmb997m and represented 28.6% of total trade receivables (vs 22.4% in 2015). We note this amount was not impaired and the allowance for bad and doubtful debt was estimated at Rmb65m only. Therefore, we believe the company is likely to record c.Rmb87m of provision for bad debt in 2017E.

Downgrade to Hold. Given the “Aokai event” and the subsequent increase in production costs across the industry, as well as a possible provision for bad debt in 2017E, we revise down our EPS forecast from Rmb0.17 to Rmb0.06 in 17E (-57.7% YoY), from Rmb0.20 to Rmb0.14 in 18E (+143% YoY) and from Rmb0.22 to Rmb0.14 in 19E (+6% YoY). We also revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to HK$0.73, representing 11.5x 17E PE and 0.5x 17E PB, or 4.7x 18E PE and 0.4x 18E PB. With 7.4% upside, we downgrade to Hold.

Page 3: O* ,Áxqdoc.imedao.com/15d166720c79c123fcf7c31f.pdf · revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to H K$0.73 , representing 11.5 x 17E PE and 0.5x 17E PB, or 4.7x 18E PE and 0.4x

October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Lower margin In March 2017, Xi’an Subway was revealed to use unqualified electric cables produced by Shaanxi Aokai. The cross-sectional diameter of the cables was too small, leading to increased temperature and a risk of fire. The event quickly attracted attention of the State Council and the following investigation indicated the unqualified products accounted for more than 75% of total volume. Xi’an Subway announced it would change all the cables from Aokai within 100 days, followed by other companies, like China Railway Group (601390:CH – OUTPERFORM) and Power Construction Corporation of China (601669:CH – NR), which also terminated their cooperation with Aokai. 8 employees from Aokai were arrested by the local authorities. The Chinese cable and wire industry is not concentrated. The 10 largest companies only account for 7%-10% of total market share, as opposed to top 10 companies in the US, Japan and France, which total more than 60% of their local market. The relatively low market concentration indicates most companies have small operations and do not invest much in research and development (R&D). Most companies in the industry compete over price, somehow leading to quality issues due to cost cut. According to State Grid, out of 421 companies winning the bid in 2016, average gross margin amounted to 8.2% and average net profit margin amounted to -2.0%. Considering the tiny industry profit, companies had to figure out ways to expand profit margin and decrease cost. Therefore, quality became a general concern within the sector.

Figure 1: Cable and Wire Industry Concentration

Source: Qianzhan.com

In order to enhance quality supervision, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republish of China (AQSIQ) published Implementation plan for specific supervision and inspection of wire and cable production enterprises. 17 provinces and 4 cities started specific wire and cable inspections. Under the strict industry environment, we believe Jiangnan Group is also negatively affected by the “Aokai event”. By end-2016, inventories amounted to Rmb3.8bn including Rmb0.04bn of raw materials, Rmb2.5bn work in progress and Rmb1.3bn of finished goods. We believe only sales to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) will be affected by the “Aokai event”. Sales to SOE accounts for c.50% of Jiangnan’s total sales in our model, and we assume 60% return rate, which will lead to 30% of total sales volume needing to be reprocessed.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Chinese Top 10 Companies

Japanese Top 7 Companies

American Top 10 Companies

French Top 5 Companies

Page 4: O* ,Áxqdoc.imedao.com/15d166720c79c123fcf7c31f.pdf · revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to H K$0.73 , representing 11.5 x 17E PE and 0.5x 17E PB, or 4.7x 18E PE and 0.4x

October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Figure 2: Sensitive Analysis between product return rate and administrative expense to revenue ratio (Rmbm)

2017E Product return rate

2017E Administrative

expense to revenue

2017E Net income 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2.57% 638 587 535 483 432 380 329

3.57% 553 501 450 398 346 295 243

4.57% 467 416 364 312 261 209 158

5.57% 382 330 278 227 175 124 72

6.57% 296 245 193 141 90 38 -13

7.57% 211 159 107 56 4 -47 -99

8.57% 125 73 22 -30 -81 -133 -184

Source: SWS Research

We expect gross margin to decline from 14.9% in 2016 to 13.2% in 2017E, and administrative expense to revenue ratio to increase by c.3% due to the inventory impairment. In 1H17, copper price rallied by c.23% YoY. In our model, we assume the same price rally for copper in 2017E. We also assume sales volume of power cable, which is the main product of Jiangnan Group, will have a 6% YoY increase in 17E (vs +5% YoY in 2016). Therefore, we expect 2017E attributable net income to amount to Rmb227m, indicating 2.2% net profit margin (vs 5.8% in 2016).

Figure 3: Sensitivity Analysis between copper price increase and power cable sales volume growth (Rmbm)

2017E YoY Copper price increase

2017E Power cable volume growth rate

2017E Net income 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 33% 38%

0% 180 189 197 206 214 223 232

2% 187 196 204 213 222 230 239

4% 193 202 211 220 229 238 247

6% 200 209 218 227 236 245 254

8% 207 216 225 234 243 253 262

10% 213 223 232 241 251 260 269

12% 220 229 239 248 258 268 277

Source: SWS Research

Weak industry environment

After fluctuating at a relatively low level during the first 10 months of 2016, copper price experienced a sharp increase in late October, from USD4,621/t on 24 October to USD5,900/t on 11 November (27.7% increase). Currently, copper price fluctuates at c.USD5,700/t. High copper price leads to cost increase, forcing many companies to report lower margin in 1Q17. Despite the weak industry environment, we believe large industry players like Jiangnan Group will gain market share from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Adopting cost-plus pricing method, we believe 2017E revenue of Jiangnan Group will increase by 20% partly due to copper price increase and partly due to sales volume growth.

Page 5: O* ,Áxqdoc.imedao.com/15d166720c79c123fcf7c31f.pdf · revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to H K$0.73 , representing 11.5 x 17E PE and 0.5x 17E PB, or 4.7x 18E PE and 0.4x

October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 3

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Figure 4: LME copper price (USD/t)

Source: Wind, SWS Research

In 1Q17, we note cable and wire companies have experienced a tough time. We chose several leading companies within the sector to indicate the industry environment. Except for Jiangnan Group, other companies are listed on the A-share market.

Figure 5: Competitors

Market cap (Rmbbn)

Percentage of cable related business

17E PE PB (MRQ)

2498.SZ Qingdao Hanhe Cable 12.1 90.10% 26 2.69

600973.SH Baosheng Science & Technology 6.56 63.10% 20 1.85

2300.SZ Fujian Nanping Sun Cable 6.44 86.20% 44.6 4.77

2471.SZ Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding 6.05 63.13% 54.8 3.31

600869.SH Far East Smarter Energy 15.5 83.70% 25.4 2.74

2276.SZ Zhejiang Wanma 9.31 50.60% 43.9 3.07

603606.SH Orient Cable 3.59 74.76% 67.8 4.17

1366.HK Jiangnan Group 2.47 100% 5.9 0.5

Source: Wind, SWS Research

Due to the relatively low economic growth and large number of competitors, the cable and wire industry has suffered low growth in recent years. Most companies posted low single digit revenue growth in 1Q17 as well as decreasing gross margin due to high copper prices.

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Page 6: O* ,Áxqdoc.imedao.com/15d166720c79c123fcf7c31f.pdf · revise down our target price from HK$1.24 to H K$0.73 , representing 11.5 x 17E PE and 0.5x 17E PB, or 4.7x 18E PE and 0.4x

October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 4

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Figure 6: Revenue (Rmbm) Figure 7: Jiangnan Group’s revenue (Rmbm)

Source: Company data, SWS Research Source: Company data, SWS Research

Affected by the copper price rally, we see that most companies within the sector have suffered from gross margin decline as well as net income decline in 1Q17.

Figure 8: Gross margin

1Q16 1Q17

2300.SZ Fujian Nanping Sun Cable 14.31% 8.19%

2471.SZ Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding 15.77% 14.83%

600869.SH Far East Smarter Energy 20.75% 14.27%

2276.SZ Zhejiang Wanma 18.91% 12.14%

603606.SH Orient Cable 13.65% 13.54%

2498.SZ Qingdao Hanhe Cable 11.35% 13.05%

600973.SH Baosheng Science & Technology 6.82% 7.17%

2015A 2016A

1366.HK Jiangnan Group 16.16% 14.91%

Source: Company data, SWS Research

Figure 9: Net income (Rmbm)

1Q17 Net income (Rmbm)

YoY Growth 1Q17 Net income after excluding non-recurring profit and loss (Rmbm)

YoY Growth

2498.SZ Qingdao Hanhe Cable 73.42 31.16% 18.61 -49.39%

600973.SH Baosheng Science & Technology

30.23 -21.42% 25.41 35.84%

2300.SZ Fujian Nanping Sun Cable 11.8 -47.96% 4.67 -74.76%

2471.SZ Jiangsu Zhongchao 10.81 -12.50% 9.03 -25.52%

600869.SH Far East Smarter Energy 11.87 -86.31% 7.06 -91.69%

2276.SZ Zhejiang Wanma -31.55 -215.93% -45.73 -270.04%

603606.SH Orient Cable 7.78 16.24% 6.63 1.83%

2016A Net income (Rmbm)

YoY Growth

1366.HK Jiangnan Group 531 -24.65%

Source: Company data, SWS Research

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FujianNanping

Sun Cable

JiangsuZhongchao

Holding

Far EastSmarterEnergy

ZhejiangWanma

OrientCable

1Q16 1Q17-5.0%

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October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 5

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Provision for bad debt By end-2016, Jiangnan Group’s trade and other receivables amounted to Rmb3.8bn, accounting for c.41.7% of total revenue (vs 39.1% in 2015). The company’s credit terms usually range from 30 days to 180 days. However, by end-2016, trade and bills receivable over 180 days amounted to Rmb997m and represented 28.6% of total trade receivables (vs 22.4% in 2015).

Figure 10: Accounts receivable (Rmbm)

Source: Wind, SWS Research

We note this amount was not impaired and the allowance for bad and doubtful debt was estimated at Rmb65m only. Therefore, we believe the company is likely to record c.Rmb87m of provision for bad debt in 2017E. The risk might be alleviated considering the company announced that c.27% of outstanding trade and bills receivables over 365 days had been settled.

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0-90 days 91-180 days 181-365 days Over 365 days Revenue

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October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 6

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Appendix

Table 1: Consolidated Income Statement

Rmbm 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue 9,167 9,111 10,574 10,907 11,482

Cost of Sales -7,685 -7,753 -9,175 -9,369 -9,859

Gross Profit 1,482 1,358 1,400 1,538 1,623

Other Income 74 85 70 74 76

Distribution expenses -203 -219 -232 -242 -252

Administrative expenses -179 -235 -589 -325 -375

EBITDA 944 747 363 771 818

EBIT 871 667 279 680 719

Finance Costs -243 -222 -246 -239 -255

Profit before tax 870 655 279 680 719

Income tax expense -166 -125 -53 -130 -138

Minority interests 0 -1 -1 -1 -1

Profit for equity holders 703 531 227 552 583

Source: SWS Research

Table 2: Consolidated Cash Flow Statement

Rmbm 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Profit before taxation 870 655 279 680 719

Plus:Depr. and amortisation 80 84 91 98 106

Finance cost -243 -222 -246 -239 -255

Losses from investments 1 16 0 0 0

Change in working capital -648 -702 -141 -265 -242

Others 150 372 -181 410 288

CF from operating activities 210 202 -198 685 615

CAPEX -110 -125 -103 -123 -115

Other CF from investing activities -325 529 91 -30 -115

CF from investing activities -435 404 -12 -153 -230

Equity financing 619 0 0 0 0

Net change in liabilities 553 -205 72 114 198

Dividend and interest paid -438 -331 -292 -353 -375

Other CF from financing activities -40 -32 0 0 0

CF from financing activities 694 -568 -221 -239 -178

Net cash flow 469 39 -431 293 208

Source:SWS Research

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October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 7

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Table 3: Consolidated Balance Sheet

Rmbm 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Current Assets 10,885 11,205 11,277 11,865 12,682

Bank balances and cash 2,131 2,172 1,741 2,035 2,242

Trade and other receivables 3,592 3,797 3,643 3,757 3,955

Inventories 3,269 3,809 4,508 4,603 4,844

Other current assets 1,893 1,425 1,386 1,470 1,641

Long-term investment 272 262 265 268 273

PP&E 790 844 860 889 901

Intangible and other assets 172 156 156 156 156

Total Assets 12,119 12,466 12,558 13,178 14,013

Current Liabilities 7,146 7,097 7,010 7,193 7,566

Borrowings 3,770 3,565 3,637 3,751 3,949

Trade and other payables 3,254 3,422 3,264 3,333 3,507

Other current liabilities 122 109 109 109 109

Long-term liabilities 77 72 72 72 72

Total Liabilities 7,223 7,169 7,082 7,265 7,638

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 1

Shareholder Equity 4,896 5,297 5,476 5,913 6,374

Share Capital 33 33 33 33 33

Reserves 4,863 5,264 5,442 5,879 6,341

Equity attributable 4,896 5,297 5,476 5,913 6,374

Total Liabilities and equity 12,119 12,466 12,558 13,178 14,013

Source: SWS Research

Table 4: Key Financial Ratios

2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Ratios per share (Rmb)

Earnings per share 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.14 0.14

Diluted earnings per share 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.14 0.14

Operating CF per share 0.06 0.05 -0.05 0.17 0.15

Dividend per share 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.03

Net assets per share 1.30 1.31 1.34 1.45 1.56

Key Operating Ratios(%)

ROIC 14.00 9.06 3.69 8.63 8.57

ROE 17.31 10.40 4.18 9.66 9.47

Gross profit margin 16.16 14.91 13.24 14.10 14.13

EBITDA Margin 10.29 8.20 3.43 7.07 7.12

EBIT Margin 9.50 7.32 2.64 6.24 6.26

Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) 12.42 (0.61) 16.06 3.14 5.27

Growth rate of Profit(YoY) 12.34 (24.65) (57.46) 144.11 5.72

Debt-to-asset ratio 59.60 57.51 56.39 55.13 54.51

Turnover rate of net assets 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9

Turnover rate of total assets 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Effective tax rate (%) 19.12 19.12 19.12 19.12 19.12

Dividend yield (%) 4.56 4.56 1.68 4.10 4.33

Valuation Ratios (X)

P/E 3.2 4.5 10.7 4.4 4.2

P/B 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

EV/Sale 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

EV/EBITDA 4.1 5.1 11.9 5.4 5.1

Source: SWS Research

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October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 8

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

Information Disclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. Undertakings of the Analyst I (We) am (are) conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China and have registered as the Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectively with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein. Disclosure with respect to the Company The company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065. Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting services. The company may analyze the values or market trends of securities and related products or other relevant affecting factors, provide investment analysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by issuing securities research reports solely to its clients. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact [email protected] for the relevant disclosure materials or log into www.swsresearch.com for the analysts' qualifications,the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates’ shareholdings. Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as follows: Trading BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 6-month period. BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 12-month period. Outperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% upside over a 12-month period. Hold: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10% downside to 10% upside over a 12-month period. Underperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% downside over a 12-month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% downside over a 12-month period. Industry Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as follows: Overweight:Industry performs better than that of the whole market;

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October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 9

Jul 4, 2017 Capital Goods | Company Research

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