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Global Megatrends

Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD

Implications for built infrastructure and city designs

www.data61.csiro.au

Global Megatrendsand their Impact on Cities

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz2 |

More From Less

Planetary Pushback

The Silk Highway

Forever Young

Digital Immersion

Porous Boundaries

Great Expectations

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

Why a Venn Diagram?

3 |

Ice Cream

Car TripChildren

Use activity books and

games

Take normal

careEffective strategy not

yet identified by humankind

Use serviettes

Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?

Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future

More from Less

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz5 |

The world consumes 33% more energy, and 70% more electricity, by the year 2040

The energy mix changes. By 2040, oil & coal decrease share by 9%. Renewables increase by 5%. Gas and nuclear increase by 2%.

Renewables overtake coal for electricity by 2030

The world will spend US$68 Trillion on energy infrastructure by 2040

Artists impression on solar farm on Queensland’s sunshine coast. Will generate electricity for 500 homes. Source: Sunshine Coast Council.

Energy Supply and Demand

Energy Storage

Source: Valentin Muenzel et al (2014) The Conversation. Drawing upon data by the University of Melbourne and IBM.

“Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs between $0.08-$0.13/kWh, 30-40% below retail price of electricity in many markets globally. In markets heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation, the ratio of coal based wholesale electricity to solar electricity cost was 7:1 four years ago. This ratio is now less than 2:1 and could likely approach 1:1 over the next 12-18 months”.

- Deutsche Bank, Markets Research, Feb 2015

Source: David van der Mark, Flickr

The Tesla Model S P90D accelerates 0 to 100km/hr in 2.9 seconds; faster than the Ferrari 458 Italia at 3.0 seconds. It retails for ~US$120,000 (25% of that is the battery) [source: Wikipedia, www.automoblog.net).

Source: Pixabay

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz6 |

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

Mining Above the Ground

7 |

One tonne of ore body yields 1-5 grams of gold

One tonne of old computer circuits yields 250 grams of gold

Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy - March 28 2014How to create wealth from waste

Images CSIRO

Planetary Pushback

9 |

So far 2015 was the warmest year on record. And 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001.

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Climate Change

1900-1920 1920-1940 1940-1960

1960-1980 1980-2000 2000-2016

Difference from 30 year average (1951 – 1980)

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz10 |

Deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance every year by 2050

The Silk Highway

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz12 |

A Shifting World Economy

Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

Making Cities in 20 Years - What Took Europe 400 Years

13 |

Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cnStatistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

The Rise of the Services SectorExample ; Transition in the Chinese Economy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Perc

ent o

f Val

ue A

dd to

the

Econ

omy

Industry

Services

Agriculture

Source: World Bank Indicators

By 2030 China and India alone will account for more than 60% of combined OECD and G20 STEM graduates.

The BRIICS countriesa will produce three-quarters of global STEM graduates

Source: OECD (2015) Education Indicators in Focus

BRIICS = Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa.

Forever Young

The Ageing Population – Australia

Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

It will be 25% by 2050

18 |

Worldwide Obesity Prevalence Rates

“In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide”

The Lancet 2014 384, 766-781. Ng et al.

Rising Healthcare Expenditure

Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship

Today we spend 25 percent of all government taxes in

Australia on healthcare.

By the year 2043 it will be 40 percent.

Perc

ent o

f GDP

, Aus

tral

ia

Source: AIHW health expenditure database

9.3

5.2 4.73.5

1.6

22.6

12.1

21.5

10.1

8.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cardiovascular Mental Neurological Cancer Diabetes

Expe

nditu

re P

er Y

ear (

A$ B

illio

ns) 2002–03

2032–33

Source: ACE–Prevention: Deakin University and University of Queensland.

The pandemic of physical inactivity

“Physical inactivity is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide”- Prof Dr Harold Kohl et al., 2012 The Lancet

In Australia Physical inactivity is main cause for 21–25% of breast & colon cancers, 27% of diabetes and 30% of heart disease.

Only one-third of children undertook the recommended 60 minutes of daily physical activity.

60% of Australian adults did less than the recommended 30 minutes of moderate intensity physical activity per day.

- Australian Government, Department of HealthSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2013 - Australian Health Survey: Physical Activity, 2011-12. ABS Catalogue number 4364.0.55.004

Rising Healthcare Expenditure

Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship

Today we spend 25

percent of all

government taxes in

Australia on

healthcare.

By the year 2043 it

will be 40 percent.

Perc

ent o

f GD

P, A

ustr

alia

Source: AIHW health expenditure database

22 | Source: Foster & Partners Designed Bikeway shown by CNN

If we build them they will be used (shown in numerous studies) – and they’ll get healthier (mental + physical).

City Designs That Get People Moving

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz23 |

Digital Immersion

Computing Speed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1971

1972

1974

1978

1982

1985

1989

1993

1995

1997

1999

2000

2003

2006

2008

2010

2012

Tran

sist

ors

(mill

ions

)

Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years

And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster …

Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?

The Internet of Things

20062 Billion Devices

201515 Billion Devices

2020200 Billion Devices

Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia

225 times more functionality

40,000 times more functionality

Metcalfe's LawValue of a network = n2

The Data Smart, Highly Automated and Digitally Connected City

There Are Other Options …In Pittsburgh you can now select “Automated” when you order a taxi on your smartphone… Automated fleet cars are a transport game changer.

Source: ABC News

Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology“A distributed ledger is a consensus of replicated, shared, and synchronized digital data geographically spread across multiple sites, countries, and/or institutions”- Blockchain Technologies

A blockchain is a type of distributed ledger comprised of highly tamper resistant digital data records stored in packages called “blocks”.- Definition Adapted from Blockchain Technologies

Task Automation and Job ReplacementBetween 40% to 55% of current jobs to be automated?

29 |

47% of Jobs in America at

High Risk of Automation

Michael OsbourneOxford University

Learn to race with the

Machine, not against it

Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAffee

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

What Jobs do People Get? After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in …

20 mins.

The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube

Photographers Versus Lab Staff

31 |ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Empl

oym

ent (

'000

s)

Australian Photographic Industry

Photographers Developers/printers

Porous Boundaries

Rethinking the Theory of the Firm?Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.

34 |

Scenario Planning of the P2P Economy: A Case Study of Uber

New Data in a study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016

Scenario B4: Regulations bite, trust & confidence breaches

Scenario B3: Vehicle fleet automation

Scenario B2: Natural S-shaped levelling off

Scenario A2: Nothing much happens

Scenario A1: Customer trust

& quality perceptions won

Proxy measure for Market Share

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz35 |

Why All The Unusual (?) Stuff Might be Happening

Source: Harvard Business Review, 2016

Great Expectations

Is it really just C8H10N4O2 ?

The Experience Economy 2.0

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz38 | Source: World Economic Forum and VoxEUDataset for the United States

Even In a Digital World; People Still Like People

Towards a cashless society (we pay with smartphones or fingerprints, retinal scans, body movements…)?

More tech = more complex finances = more consultations

Australian Bureau of Statistics: 4114.0 - Attendance at Selected Cultural Venues and Events, Australia

23%

34%

65%

85%

28%

34%

66%

86%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Museums Libraries Cinemas Total cultural places

2006 2014

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al A

ustr

alia

n Po

pula

tion

And people still like the physical world…

Percentage of Australian Population Visiting a Cultural Venue (per year)

Despite ever growing virtual options

The Innovation ImperativeNow is the time to rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational structure because…

… Elephants must learn to dance.

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Prod

uctiv

ity In

dex

Twenty Years of Productivity in AustraliaSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics “…In the long term

it’s everything”

- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Laureate, Economics

Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger.

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson42 |

The Innovator’s DilemmaWorld Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen

The Data61 Insight TeamResearch excellence combined with business relevance

Please connect with us @stefanhajkowicz

www.data61.csiro.au

Data61Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

t +61 2 9123 4567e stefan.hajkowicz@csiro.auw www.data61.csiro.au

Thank you