2008, Aptima, Inc. 1

www.aptima.com

Boston ▪ DC ▪ Dayton

© 2008, Aptima, Inc.

Improving the Display of River and Flash Flood Predictions

HIC Conference

Lawrence Wolpert, Jared Freeman, Yuri Levchuk, Tom Aten, Daniel SerfatyMary Mullusky, Pedro Restrepo, Donna Page

July 30, 2008

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Overview

Grant #: NA07NWS4620015

Customer: NWS Client Team

– Pedro Restrepo– Mary Mullusky– Donna Page

Project Start:– October 5, 2007

Project Complete:– May 31, 2008

Grant Amount:– $60,748

Project Stages

1. Knowledge Acquisition

2.Uncertainty Modeling

3. Visual Display Design

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Task 1: Knowledge Acquisition through

Interviews and Group Discussions

Participants– 2 Hydrologists– 6 Emergency Managers– 2 Red Cross Disaster

Coordinators– Flood Evacuation Shelter

Operator– Dam Operator– 2 Fly Fishermen – 3 Kayakers – TV Weather Reporter– 6 NWS Employees

Interviews conducted either in person or by phone

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Deliverables from Task 1: Stakeholder Profiles

Job Role: Emergency Manager Key Tasks Goals/Objectives Events/Decisions/Actions Key Risks & Mitigation

Strategies Data Requirements Social Interactions Knowledge & Skills Beliefs & Values

Modeling Task:

Model uncertainty in

- environmental data

- NWS models

- Users

Visual display design task:Develop visualization techniques and displays to convey critical information

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Task 2:Uncertainty Model

Purpose– Identify the sources/types of uncertainty related to predicting,

communicating, and acting upon flood events.– Identify ways to factor uncertainty estimates into the decision-making

processes of each community of interest to improve overall quality and efficiency of outcomes.

– Determine what each community of interest needs to know about the uncertainty that exists to assess potential risks and choose a course of action.

Method– Analytical investigation and integration of uncertainty research from

multiple disciplines. Probability theory Categorization theory Perception theory

Deliverables– Description of the model of uncertainty and how it can be used to

enhance decision-making.

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Overview of Uncertainty Model

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Components of a Mental Model for EMs

Flood events Contingency events Scenarios Impact of flooding Courses of action (COA)

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High-value information itemsfor EMs, implied by our model

Flood precursor signatures– (time-stamped) patterns of events and conditions likely to cause the

flooding– causes; conditions thresholds

Worst case envelop– (sets of) adverse events with sufficiently high likelihood of

occurrence– effects; threats; triggers

Horizon of predictability and spread of envelop uncertainty– probabilistic uncertainty measures (e.g., predicted standard

deviation) for how far into the future the confidence of predictions extends and how many deviations of the flooding scenario are likely (and should be accounted for in emergency planning)

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Model-Based Quality of Service metrics

Value captured– value to EMs of all the information presented at the NWS website

Opportunity cost or loss– value of available (or easily extractable) information not presented

Navigation overhead– overhead of dealing with information that potentially obscures navigation to

more useful information

Salience of information– relevance of information at the NWS website to EM’s mission

Compactness of representation – conciseness of representation and associated cognitive load (for reviewing,

analyzing, and memorizing the information)

Clarity– ease of detecting and understanding the key triggers (e.g., events) and their

implications from the information presented

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Model-based Recommendations for Information Organization and

Depiction

Add symbolically annotated anticipated weather events– visualize prospective flood scenarios– automate search for similar flood scenarios from historical data archives– present probable dynamics of predicted flood conditions via time-spaced

geography-linked local weather event evolution maps

Depict likely scenarios – with resulting events– store local map images of past flood effects – time stamped –with overlaid

markers for adverse effects– use “nearest close neighborhood” metrics of scenario similarities to pull up

candidate scenarios from own histories and from those of other EMs

Combine horizon of predictability and spread of envelop uncertainty visualizations with icon representations of probable events and adverse weather conditions – Automate translating continuous uncertainty metrics (e.g., deviations,

ensemble averages, etc.) into specific representative and worst-case discrete event scenarios

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Task 3: Visual Display Design

Support EMs’ decision making regarding courses of action.

– Visualizations of river forecasts with uncertainty

– Visualizations of “impact” of various flooding scenarios

Visualization of uncertainty model inputs for clear understanding of “why” predictions are what they are.

Allow for local knowledge to be incorporated into predictions

Fusion / organization of information for clear understanding of relationship to one another and enhanced orientation.

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Landmark Map

Ever present geographic depiction of current state of affairs

Enhanced ability to select desired information for presentation on the map

Increased saliency/access to relevant related information needed for accurate SA and decision making

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River Height/Flow Prediction with Uncertainty

Visual depiction of “river forecast” in terms of height / flow

– Clear depiction of uncertainty with cone of uncertainty

Visualization of model parameters with ability of the EM to apply local knowledge.

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River Extent Prediction Visualizations

Visualization of river extent for given point selected in the river prediction of flow/height Stage, Likelihood and Confidence of a selected point Impact of given scenario shown (items affected)

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Interplay of Visualizations Enhanced Fusion / organization of

information for enhanced decision making– Clear understanding of relationship– Easy access to needed information for decision

making

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Further Detail Regarding Flood’s Impact

Provide further understanding of implications of flood at a:– Global level

– Individual variable level

Current and Future river impact predictions shown Additional understanding provided through references to similar previous

floods

National Weather Service

NWS Next StepsNWS Next Steps

Quantitatively assess Aptima’s User Interface Quantitatively assess Aptima’s User Interface with the upcoming customer satisfaction with the upcoming customer satisfaction surveysurvey

Present ideas to Ensemble Product Present ideas to Ensemble Product Generation group as possible forecaster Generation group as possible forecaster interface in CHPS/FEWS/XEFSinterface in CHPS/FEWS/XEFS

Move some elements forward on the AHPS Move some elements forward on the AHPS web pagesweb pages

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