NYMTC’s NEWREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN

(through Federal Fiscal Year 2045)

East End Planning Conference September 20, 2017

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A “metropolitan planning organization” for New York City, Long Island & the Lower Hudson Valley

A regional council of governments consisting of nine voting & seven advisory members

An organization required by Federal legislation which authorizes funding for transportation

An organization responsible for the mandated metropolitan transportation planning process

WHAT IS NYMTC?2

MEMBERSHIP

ADVISORY MEMBERS: New Jersey Transit, North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, Federal Transit Administration, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NYS Department of Environmental Conservation

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PLANNING AREA

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Congress (authorizes &

appropriates $$)

NYS

Region (MPO)

Project sponsor

NYS Legislature (appropriates $$)

Project sponsor

Local county, municipality &

public authority budgets

Project sponsor

Major Elements of Transportation Funding

Programs administered by the Federal Highway Administration

• National Highway Performance Program (NHPP)

• National Highway Freight Program

• Surface Transportation Block Grant Program (STBGP)• Transportation Alternatives

Program (STBGP set aside)

• Congestion Mitigation-Air Quality Program (CMAQ)

• Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)

• Railway-Highway Crossings

• Ferry Boat & Terminal Facilities

Programs administered by the Federal Transit Administration

• Sections 5307/5340 Urbanized Area Formula

• Section 5309 Fixed Guideway Capital Investment

• Section 5310 Enhanced Mobility of Seniors and People with Disabilities

• Section 5337 State-of-Good Repair

• Section 5339 Bus and Bus Facilities

Federal Formula Funding Programs

REQUIREDMETROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

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WHAT IS THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN?

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The basis for federal transportation funding in the

NYMTC planning area

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A blueprint that helps guide federal investments in the

planning area

NYMTC members’ shared strategic

vision for the planning area

WHY A NEW PLAN? Federal requirement for a new Plan

every 4 years

New information on population & employment growth – changing demands & trends

Updated transportation funding sources

New information on costs & other financial inputs

Revised regional priorities as determined by NYMTC’s members

New federal requirements & priorities

Technological developments

New air quality forecasts

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Required scale and schedule

• Multi-modal

• Minimum 20-year planning horizon

• New plan required every four years

A framework for the use of federal funding

• Congestion management

• Fiscal constraint/project selection

• Transportation conformity (mobile source emissions)

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Plan 2045 Components

Shared Vision and Strategic

Framework

• Megaregional & Regional Contexts

• Growth & Demand Forecasts/Drivers of Change

• Goals and Desired Outcomes

• Coordinated Development Emphasis Areas

• Near-Term Priorities & Actions (first ten years)

• System Performance Report (to be added 2018)

Federally-Supported Transportation

System

• System Inventory

• Transportation System Management & Operations (TSMO)

• Transportation Safety, Security and Emergency Management

• Major Projects, System Preservation & System Enhancements (constrained & aspirational)

Financial Plan

• Capital Costs & Resources

• Operations & Maintenance Costs & Resources

• Supplemental Resources

Required Special Elements

• Environmental Mitigation & New Consultation

• Pedestrian-Bicycle Element

• Regional Freight Plan

• Coordinated Public Transit-Human Services Transportation Plan

• Congestion Management Process (CMP) Status Report

• Environmental Justice Assessment

PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT FOR PLAN 2045

Plan 2045 was developed in part through a public involvement effort that engaged various constituencies in

the NYMTC planning area. This included:

• Website and virtual public workshop

• An online survey

• An explanatory video

• Public workshops

• Focus groups

• Public advisory working groups

• Feedback through social media

Input was gathered from the general public, community-based advocacy groups, communities of concern and other stakeholders.

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FUTURE CHALLENGES

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KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE NEW PLAN

The current transportation

system accommodates millions of daily

passenger trips, as well as millions of

tons of freight.

The current transportation

system is extensiveand aging.

NYMTC’s planning area is projected to grow in population,

employment and travel by 2045.

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Over 19,000 lane-miles of roadways

Over 2,400 roadway bridges

More than 1,100 miles of bicycle facilities

Nearly 480 route miles of commuter rail

225 route miles of subway tracks

Hundreds of miles of local, express,

commuter, and intercity bus routes and

an aerial tramway

An extensive network of passenger hubs, stations and stops

Supporting infrastructure

CHALLENGE - OPERATING, PRESERVING AND ENHANCING THE FEDERALLY-SUPPORTED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

CHALLENGE - ANTICIPATING CHANGE

CHALLENGE – REGIONAL GROWTH

11.0% 10.3%

67.1%70.4%

Population Employment Freight Tonnage* GDP**

Forecasted Growth in the NYMTC Planning Area; 2017 through 2045

*Forecasted growth in Freight Tonnage is for 2012 through 2045**Forecasted growth in GDP is for 2015 through 2045

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CHALLENGE - GROWING TRAVEL

Daily Trips Daily Transit Trips Daily Auto Trips Daily VMT

LHV 14.9% 26.8% 13.4% 16.1%

LI 12.8% 27.0% 12.3% 13.1%

NYC 8.0% 10.5% 5.0% 7.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Forecasted Growth; 2017 through 2045

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CHALLENGE – INCREASING CONGESTION

Forecasted Roadway Conditions 6 a.m.-10 a.m. Suffolk County

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CHALLENGE -- GROWING GOODS MOVEMENT

365

610

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2045

MIL

LIO

NS

OF

TON

S

Freight Tonnage by Mode – NYMTC Planning Area

Truck Rail Water Air

Freight Tonnage by County

2012 & 2045

Source: 2012 IHS Global Insight Transearch Data, 2012 Surface Transportation Board (STB) Waybill Sample

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CHALLENGE --MEGAREGIONAL TRAVELSHED

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RESPONDING TO THE CHALLENGES

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Plan 2045’s Strategic Framework

Strategic Goals

Related Desired Outcomes

Near-Term Actions

Sustainability Features

Fiscal Constraint & Project Eligibility/Selection

Enhance the regional environment

Improve the regional economy

Improve the regional quality of life

Preserve the existing transportation infrastructure

Provide a convenient, flexible transportation system within the region

Enhance the safety and security of the transportation system for both motorized and non-motorized users

Improve the resiliency of the regional transportation system

Build the case for obtaining resources to implement regional investments

Plan 2045’s Strategic FrameworkStrategic Goals

Plan 2045’s Strategic Framework Sustainability Features

Coordinated Development Emphasis Areas (CDEAs)

Locations where changes to land use and transportation will help shape future growth and the manner in which that growth is accommodated by the transportation system

CDEAs provide a framework for sustainable growth and development

CDEAs are targets for development and transportation investment in a

coordinated fashion, particularly linked to the existing and future transit network

Suffolk County Coordinated

Development Emphasis Areas

(CDEAs)

6/27/2017 28

Plan 2045’s Strategic Framework Fiscal Constraint & Project Eligibility/Selection

Plan 2045 proposes . . .

Nearly $627 billion in year-of-expenditure (YOE) dollars to adequately operate and maintain system components and services.

Roughly $463 billion in YOE dollars for System Preservation projects and strategies.

Approximately $33 billion for various System Enhancement projects.

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An average of $22.4 billion

per year

An average of $16.5 billion

per year

Fiscal Constraint – An Illustration

$0.000

$10.000

$20.000

$30.000

$40.000

$50.000

$60.000

Year 1 Year 6 Year 25

BIL

LIO

NS

OF

YO

E $

$

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REASONABLY-EXPECTEDREVENUES

SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCINGALTERNATIVES

CONSTRAINED PLAN

VISION ELEMENT(unconstrained)

TIP

Constrained TIP and Plan must

include a forecast of System

Preservation costs for the entire

planning period

FORMULA FEDERAL , $104,838

FEDERAL DISCRETIONARY & OTHER, $11,655

OTHER STATE/ LOCAL, $115,165

LOCAL for MTA, $243,096

PROJECT SPECIFIC STATE/LOCAL, $18,234

ADDITIONAL FUNDING, $3,078

Transit preservation, $370,919

Roadway presevation, $92,544

System enhancements, $32,603

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

FORECASTED REVENUES (AT FEDERAL UPPER LIMIT) FORECASTED COSTS

Capital Revenues Vs. CostsFederally-Supported Transportation System

(in millions of YOE dollars)

TOTAL COSTS:$496,066

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Major System Enhancements in the Constrained Plan

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Other Plan 2045 Constrained/Vision Projects

6/27/2017

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Significant Planning Studiesin the Vision Element

Regional

• Impacts of Future Changes Study

• Demand Management Program Evaluation

• Local capacity-building through community planning workshops

• Freight Land Use Study

• Clean Freight Corridors Program

• Cross Sound Connection Feasibility Study

• NY-NJ-CT Transportation Vulnerability & Adaptation Study (FHWA)

• Centralized Information for Specialized Services Study

Long Island

• Long Island Motor Parkway Trail (Nassau County)

• Shoreham Deep Water Port Feasibility Study (Suffolk County)

• Sagtikos State Parkway/Sunken Meadow State Parkway Operational Study (Suffolk County)

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