nyc emergency responders: an analysis on fdny response times
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NYC Emergency Responders: An Analysis on FDNY Response Times. By: LT Jason McKeown & LT Annette Feliciano-Ramos. Agenda. Background Story/Problem Statement Network Model Method Formulation Results Analysis Conclusions. World Trade Center Attacks. FDNY Response 200+ Units - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
NYC Emergency Responders: An Analysis on FDNY Response Times
By: LT Jason McKeown& LT Annette Feliciano-Ramos
Agenda
• Background Story/Problem Statement• Network Model• Method• Formulation• Results• Analysis• Conclusions
World Trade Center Attacks
• FDNY Response– 200+ Units
• Combined companies– First 3 Hours
• 121 Engines (61%)• 62 Ladders (43%)• 27 Chiefs (47%)• Lead to management
difficulties– City Wide Coverage
Maintained• Avg Response time: 5.5min
• FDNY Losses– 343 Fire Fighters– 98 Vehicles
Problem Statement
Evaluate fire department city wide response for a catastrophic high rise fire with the presence of degraded infrastructure.
Why?• Construction is currently
underway to build the new “One World Trade Center” building.
• Creates a target for future, possibly more sophisticated, terrorist attacks.
• Attacking infrastructure to impede emergency response is a possibility.
FDNY Structure• New York City
– Consists of 5 Boroughs• Manhattan• The Bronx• Brooklyn• Queens• Staten Island
– Connected by bridge and tunnel network.• Brooklyn Bridge• JFK Bridge• Etc.
– Emergency Response Strength• 15,870 Responders• 52 Battalions• 251 Stations• 198 Engines• 143 Ladders
• FDNY Structure• Fire Commissioner (Civilian)
• Overall authority in NYC• Chief of Department
• Highest ranking fire fighter• Chief of Fire Operations
• Responsible for fire fighting efforts throughout the city
• Borough Chiefs• Responsible for fire fighting
efforts in their respective Boroughs
• Division Chief• Battalion Chief• Captain (Fire Station Commander)
Network Model• Nodes (254)– Start Node– Fire Houses– Bridges– WTC (destination)
• Edges (1289)– Start to Fire Houses– Fire House to Bridge Arcs– Bridge to Bridge Arcs
• Data– Avg Response Times– Fire House Locations– Fire House Capacities
– http://nycopendata.socrata.com/
Assumptions
• Borough response times are homogenized.• FDNY response is contained within NYC
boarders.• All non-attacked bridges are currently
available for transit.• Responding Fire Houses utilize all resources
available.• Response is instantaneous (no response lag).
Staten Island
Brooklyn
Manhattan
Queens
Bronx
New York City
Manhattan
Bronx
Brooklyn
Staten Island
Queens
Staten Island
Staten Island
Staten Island
Brooklyn
Brooklyn Bridge
Manhattan Bridge
Williamsburg Bridge
Brooklyn
Brooklyn
Queens
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Queens
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
QueensboroughBridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Queens
Bronx
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Bronx
Throgs Neck Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Bronx
Manhattan
WTC
Manhattan
WTC
Manhattan
New York City
New York CityBridges to WTC
• Purpose: Minimize the average response times of emergency responders given a prerequisite number of units. (ex: 50 Fire Stations Responding).– Attacks on the network are aimed at vital nodes that
provide connections to other boroughs
Min Cost Flow
Manhattan Isolation(# attacks > # bridges)
0 10 20 30 40 50 600.1
1
10
100
1000Manhattan Isolation
Avg Time
Req'd Responders
Avg
Tim
e (m
in)
Manhattan contains 48 Fire Stations. Thus for a situation where 49 responders are required, FDNY Manhattan would be overwhelmed if they were to receive no outside assistance.
Attacking the Network (49-198 Req’d)
15-16: Isolation of Manhattan6-7: Isolation of Manhattan & The Bronx4-5: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, and Queens3-4: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn. This also removes the need for Staten Island.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201
10
100
1000
10000Operator Resilience Curve
49 Req'd83 Req'd148 Req'd153 Req'd198 Req'd
# of Attacks
Avg
Tim
e (m
in)
Conclusions
• To Overwhelm the FDNY– Requires another 9/11 type attack.• Massive response requires manpower and
resources– Requires isolation of the borough• Level of sophistication would be very high• Would not go unnoticed• Extensive bridge network needs to be defeated.
Future Research• Determine Fire House
dispatch procedures to determine individual node capacities.
• Obtain actual list of dispatched Fire Houses and those that self-dispatched.
Image credit: Joe Woolhead Courtesy of: Silverstein Properties Taken: September 08, 2011
Questions