numerical techniques for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment … · 2016. 7. 24. · risk...
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Numerical techniques for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of
cascading outages Cascading Failure Working Group of
IEEE PES Computer and Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS)
Pierre Henneaux, Jean-Claude Maun
2016 IEEE PES General Meeting
July 20, 2016
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Table of contents
• Introduction
• Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• Numerical techniques
• Example
• Conclusions
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Table of contents
• Introduction
• Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• Numerical techniques
• Example
• Conclusions
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Introduction
• Cascading outages
– Involve dynamic cascading phenomena (frequency instability, angular instability, voltage collapse, etc.)
– Underlying cascading mechanism: the electrical transient triggers protection systems of power system (generation/transmission) elements
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Italy, 2003
Europe, 2006
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Introduction
• Protection systems are not perfectly reliable
– They can fail to disconnect elements when they are supposed to do so (missing trips)
– They can disconnect elements when they are not supposed to do so (unwanted trips)
– Erroneous operation of protection systems is a major cause of cascading outage (e.g. 1996 WECC disturbances)
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Introduction
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of cascading outages
– Purpose: estimate the risk=probability×consequences of cascading outage scenarios
– Consequences of interest: loss of load (load shedding)
• A PRA of cascading outages must consider
– Dynamic phenomena
– The stochastic behaviour of protection systems
→ Concept of dynamic PRA
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Table of contents
• Introduction
• Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• Numerical techniques
• Example
• Conclusions
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Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• Purpose
– Identify cascading outage scenarios
– Estimate their probabilities (or their frequencies)
– Estimate the loss of load induced by each of them
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Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
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• Classical PRA technique: Event Tree
– Probability of each scenario = product of the probabilities of successive embranchments
– Dynamic simulation of each branch to estimate consequences (loss of load)
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Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• “Classical” Event Trees irrelevant for dynamic PRA
– Events are triggered by the power system dynamics: they cannot be predicted beforehand
– Events can occur at any time (e.g. measurement errors): the number of branches (possible scenarios) is infinite
→ Extension of the concept: Dynamic Event Trees (DETs)
• DETs
– Coupled analysis of the power system dynamics and events due to the action of protection systems
– Infinite number of branches → Any numerical technique must find a way to limit the analysis to a finite number…
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Table of contents
• Introduction
• Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• Numerical techniques
• Example
• Conclusions
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Numerical techniques
• Most naïve way to limit the analysis to a finite number of branches: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation
– The stochastic behaviour of protection systems is sampled beforehand
– The branch of the DET corresponding to this behaviour is simulated (deterministic simulation)
– The process is repeated for a “large” number of runs (until satisfactory statistical accuracy is reached)
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• Monte Carlo simulation scheme
Numerical techniques
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Initiating
event Protection
system 1
Protection
system 2
Protection
system 3
Sampling
(timing and branching)
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Numerical techniques
• Problem of MC simulation: poor efficiency
– Cascading outages are rare events in real (modern) power systems
– If probability to have a major disturbance after an initiating event (e.g. fault on a line) is 10-4, need of nearly 1 million of dynamic simulations to reach a satisfactory statistical accuracy
– It will require several weeks of computation for real systems
– But most (>99%) of the computation time is spent to simulate secure events
→ Need for more efficient numerical techniques
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Numerical techniques
• Alternative #1: MC-DET
– Sources of stochasticity: continuous (e.g. measurements errors) + discrete (e.g. breaker failures)
– For a specific set of values of continuous random variables, the DET contains a finite number of branches (discrete failures)
– MC-DET simulation scheme • Continuous random variables are sampled beforehand
• The DET corresponding to this set of values is fully simulated
• The process is repeated for a “large” number of runs (until satisfactory statistical accuracy is reached)
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• MC-DET simulation scheme
Numerical techniques
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Initiating
event Protection
system 1
Protection
system 2
Protection
system 3
Sampling
(only timing)
Protection
system 4
Protection
system 6
Protection
system 5
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Numerical techniques
• Problem of MC-DET: possible combinatorial explosion of branches
– A real power system contains numerous protection systems (maximum number of branches: 2N)
– Some branches are very unlikely to happen (e.g. several circuit breaker failures)
– The MC-DET will explore these branches, even if the contribution to the total risk is negligible
– Possible solution: cut-off of branches with a probability lower than a threshold
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Numerical techniques
• Alternative #2: DDET
– Discrete DET: embranchments are restricted in time to discrete time steps (larger than the time steps used in the numerical simulation of the power system dynamics)
– Cut-off techniques to limit the combinatorial explosion (several new branches at each embranchment point allowed)
• Alternative #3: Skeleton-based Monte Carlo
– Skeleton: setpoint-based (“average” value of random variables) DET
– New branches grafted on the DET by MC simulation
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Table of contents
• Introduction
• Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• Numerical techniques
• Example
• Conclusions
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Example
• Test system: 1-area Reliability Test System
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Example
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Example
• Main (preliminary) results – Measurement errors = 1%
• Probability to have a blackout=1%
– Measurement errors = 5%
• Probability to have a blackout=1.2%
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MC MC-DET
Time per simulation (s) 4.3 557
Sample variance (-) 0.0126 0.0000326
Figure of merit (s-1) 19.5 55.1
MC MC-DET
Time per simulation (s) 4.3 600
Sample variance (-) 0.0136 0.0000866
Figure of merit (s-1) 17.1 19.2
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Table of contents
• Introduction
• Dynamic PRA of cascading outages
• Numerical techniques
• Example
• Conclusions
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Conclusions
• Numerical methods exist for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, but are not all yet applied to the specific problem of cascading outages
• Analog Monte Carlo simulation is inefficient to track rare events such as cascading outages
• MC-DET can be more efficient than MC, but the gain of a standard application is limited
• MC-DET could be improved to limit the analysis to relevant branches
• Others techniques should be studied
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