Nuke Newcome

703-684-2900

www.sra.com

www.uavforum.com

Nuke Newcome

703-684-2900

www.sra.com

www.uavforum.com

From Science Fiction…From Science Fiction…

“The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously… There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment… It was even conceivable that (the police) watched everybody all the time… You had to live… in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard and… every movement scrutinized.”

George Orwell, 1984 (1949)

…To Today’s Reality…To Today’s Reality

The Washington Post26 Aug 2001 p.C2

Lessons in ForecastingLessons in Forecasting

Yesterday’s outlandish predictions tend to become today’s mundane reality- What would a cabbie of 1949 think of the 2001 photo?

You have to look backward to measure progress forward- Change is seldom appreciated while it is happening- Orwell was off by 17 years (1984 v. 2001) = 50%

Socio-economic factors govern technology progress- Cameras in cabs driven by cost and frequency of crime

The future always holds wild cards- Who forecast the appearance of the internet?

OverviewOverview

Requirements (Environmental)

Emerging Technologies

Potential Customers

Technologies

Customer

Requirements

Platform Environment RequirementsPlatform Environment Requirements

6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120

500K

400K

300K

200K

100K

Global HawkAltair

Pathfinder

BALLOONSHelios

SATELLITES

“PSEUDOLITES”

NO-MAN ZONESOUNDING ROCKETS

MANNED AIRCRAFT

DC-8

P-3

ER-2WB-57C-141

T-34

F/A-18

ENDURANCE (HRS)

AL

TIT

UD

E (

FT

)

BLAST

Condor

DHS & NASA Platform RequirementsDHS & NASA Platform Requirements

500K

400K

300K

200K

100K

CondorGlobal Hawk

AltairPathfinder

Helios

SATELLITES

“PSEUDOLITES”

NO-MAN ZONE

SOUNDING ROCKETS

MANNED AIRCRAFT

DC-8

P-3

ER-2WB-57C-141

T-34

F/A-18

ENDURANCE (HRS)

AL

TIT

UD

E (

FT

)

NASA: Satellite Cal/Val Diurnal Research Mars Testing

DHS: Border/Port Patrol Hazmat Response

BLAST

Condor

BALLOONS

6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120

Technologies OverviewTechnologies Overview

What is just over the horizon in:

Aerostructures

Power/Propulsion

Flight Controls

Sensors

Autonomous Capability

AerostructuresAerostructures

Autonomic (Self-Repairing) Materials– Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) microcapsules to “heal” cracks

– Ionomer coatings to “self-clean” surfaces

– Biologically active molecular arrays to “regrow” damage

Transgenetic Biopolymers– Bio-production of spider silk from goat milk (“Biosteel”)

Transgenetic BiopolymersTransgenetic Biopolymers

Spider silk is…

– Strong: greater tensile strength than steel’s

– Flexible: Can stretch 30x its length

– Lightweight: 25% lighter than composites

Each goat produces 4-22 grams/day of silk protein

Status

– Over 150 genetically modified goats bred

– Silk protein extraction process under development

SME: Dr. J. Turner, Nexia Biotechnologies

Autonomic MaterialsAutonomic Materials

Status: NSF/USAF/Motorola funded research project

SME: Dr S. White, University of Illinois

Power/PropulsionPower/Propulsion

Fuel Cells

– Mass specific power (hp/lb) approaching that of internal combustion engines

– Sources of fuel greatly expanded• Reformates of hydrocarbons

• Byproduct (H2S) of oil and natural gas wells

• Electrolysis of water

- Increased reliability and lower maintenance cost due to lower parts count

– Very low noise level = reduced acoustic signature

– Very low vibration level

Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger (TIHE)

– Nuclear reaction short of fission; no particulate radiation

– Candidate for combined turbine/TIHE cycle engine

Thermoelectric Generator Modules

2

St 3 -1997 St 4 -1998 St 7 -1999 Stack 2000 Current

Max. Power: 37-41 kW 40 kW 50 -120 kW 80 -120 kW 102 kW

Power density:0.26 kW/l

0.16 kW/kg

0.77 kW/l

0.31 kW/kg

1.10 kW/l

0.47 kW/kg

1.44 kW/l

0.83 kW/kg

1.75 kW/l

1.25 kW/kg

Active area: 500 cm2 500 cm2 800 cm2 800 cm2 250 cm2

Pressure: 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 1.5 - 2.7 bar 1.2-1.5 bar

Temperature: 80 °C 80 °C 80 °C 80 °C 80 °C

Fuel CellsFuel Cells

GM progress in fuel cells approaching 1 hp/lb specific power

Specific Power 0.1 hp/lb 0.2 hp/lb 0.3 hp/lb 0.5 hp/lb 0.76 hp/lb

Photo Approved for Public Release by USAF ASC/RAV

Document Number: ASC 03-0896 Dated 04/22/2003

Triggered Isomer Heat ExchangerTriggered Isomer Heat Exchanger

Background

– Isomers release energy (gamma rays) when bombarded with x-rays

– TIHE energy could heat the airflow going into a turbine in place of burning JP

– No particulate radiation occurs

Advantages

– No fuel combustion pollution

– No moving parts

– Extremely long endurance enabled

Status

– UTexas triggered a Hafnium isomer sample by dental x-rays in 1998

SME: Dr C. Collins, University of Texas

Thermoelectric Generator ModulesThermoelectric Generator Modules

Advantages– Converts waste heat to electricity– No moving parts– Small size (0.5g)– High power density (0.2 w/g)

Status– Power density goal of 0.25w/g– Integration on micro air vehicles

pendingSME: Dr. W. Ng, Techsburg

Specific Power TrendsSpecific Power Trends

Flight ControlsFlight Controls

Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) and Polymers (SMPs)– Ice-shedding leading edges

– Camber-optimizing airfoils

– Actuator-less control surfaces

Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems– Redundant hardware

– Adaptive software

– Neuroelectric control

– Thought control

Shape Memory Alloys & PolymersShape Memory Alloys & Polymers

Deforms with electricity, relaxes to remembered shape

Advantages:

- Optimizes airfoil for slow/fast flight

- Reduces takeoff and landing distances

- Extends range and endurance

- Compensates for damage

Status:

- DARPA Morphing Aircraft Structures (MAS) and NASA/ Langley programs in progress

SME: E. Havens, Cornerstone Research Group

Neuroelectric ControlNeuroelectric Control

Pilot’s neuromuscular signals become control inputs

Advantages

– Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control

– Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice

– Learns patterns and responses over time

– Adjusts to differences in pilots

– Relearns to fly damaged aircraft in 1/6 sec

Status

– Successfully tested in airliner simulator

SME: Dr. C. Jorgensen, NASA Ames

Thought ControlThought Control

Pilot’s EEG signals become control inputs via Blue Tooth wireless

Advantages

– Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control

– Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice

– Direct brain to computer interface

Status

– MIT’s “Mind Balance” w/Cerebus headset

– Cyberkinetics’ “Braingate” system

– Lab demo aimed at video game market

SME: E. Lalor, MIT Media Lab Europe

Communication/Data LinksCommunication/Data Links

Film and Spray-on antennas– Covert, lightweight, low power, broadband (2000 MHz) RF

antenna

– Reduces UAV weight by replacing dishes and gimbaled mountings

– Eliminates blanking sectors

– Provides one antenna for multiple functions (radio, data link, GPS, IFF)

– Open Question: damage tolerance

Multiple Quantum Well (MQW) Retromodulators– Covert, low power, low weight, high rate (300 Mbps) data link

– Avoids frequency congestion at RF

– Open Question: range limitations

Ground Terminal(courtesy Terabeam Inc.)

Multiple Quantum Well RetromodulatorsMultiple Quantum Well Retromodulators

Laser activated “shutter” for opening data link

Advantages

– Small size: 10g for 100° sector coverage

– Low power: 1W per 10 Mbps required

– Covert: <100 mrad dispersion; invisible wavelength used

– High data rate: 4 Mbps demonstrated; 300 Mbps possible

- Avoids frequency congestion of RF spectrum

– No pointing & tracking system needed on UAV

Status

– 4.2 Mbps demonstrated with a hovering UAV (Aug 01)

– Tests to expand data rate to 10 Mbps planned

SME: Dr. C. Gilbreath, Naval Research Lab

SensorsSensors

Imaging– Motion detection/reporting without imaging (passive MTI)– Active imaging to incorporate vibration, polarimetry, and

fluorescence– 3-dimensional imaging– One image, multiple target perspectives

Signals– Full-body, conformal, broadband film/spray-on RF antennas

Chemical/Biological– Diazoluminomelanin (DALM) “DNA on a chip” organic

semiconductor– Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) real time, remote agent

detection

Active Imaging

One Image, Multiple Target PerspectivesOne Image, Multiple Target Perspectives

Polarimetry

– Tank tracks

– Foliage penetration

Vibration

– Engine running/stopped

– Identification by engine modulation

– Aimpoint refinement

Fluorescence

– POL detection

Multi-Spectral

– Camouflage detection Imaging

– Coordinates for targeting

3D Imaging

– Visual identification

– Coordinates for targeting

Replacing the Pilot?Replacing the Pilot?

Defining “Autonomy”

Human-Equivalent Computing– Speed

– Memory

– Algorithms ( = Thinking Patterns, Experience)

Ethics, Law of War, ROE, union resistance, etc.

CREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERSCREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERS

Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners

B-314 Clipper

L040 Constellation

B-707

B-727

B-757

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025

Year of Introduction

Cre

w S

ize

- Flight Mechanics

- Radio Operators

- Flight Engineers- Navigators

- Third Pilots

AutonomyAutonomy

Action

Knowledge

Information

Data

Speed Growth Rate = 100 MIPS/decade

Computer Speed TrendComputer Speed Trend

20 years away from humans in MIPS and MB in a PC

Memory/Speed Growth Rate = 1 MB/MIP

Speed v. Memory RelationshipSpeed v. Memory Relationship

Computer Cost TrendsComputer Cost Trends

Computer Final FrontiersComputer Final Frontiers

Human EquivalencyHuman Equivalency

“Blue Brain” project by IBM and Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)- To simulate human brain down to molecular level- Convergence of biological data and computer capabilities

Status: To be operational in 2015

SME: C. Peck, IBM H. Markram, EPFL

PCs lag mainframes by 10-15 years, so…- Expect human equivalency in a PC by 2025-30

How Fast Is Technology Adopted?How Fast Is Technology Adopted?

Evolution of Pilot Automation, from Demonstration to Production

Years

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Autopilot

Fly-By-Wire

Autonomous

Sperry Doolittle

Mercury Concorde

Condor Global Hawk

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Film Antennas

Autonomic Materials

Transgenetic Biopolymers

Fuel Cells (MSP > 1hp/lb)

Thermoelectric Generators

Reconfigurable FCS (Software)

SMA Airfoils

MQW Retromodulators

Human-Equivalent Autonomy

Timeframes for Emerging TechnologiesTimeframes for Emerging Technologies

Fuel Cell Propulsion

Shape Memory AlloyControl Surfaces

Embedded Antenna Film Skin

Spider Silk-BasedAerostructure

SMA Deicing Leading Edges

Embedded Skin Sensors

Camber-Optimizing Airfoil

The Smart UA of 2025The Smart UA of 2025

Technology Driving Markets Technology Driving Markets

Technology Driving Market(s)

Transgenetic Polymers (“Biosteel”) Pharmaceutical Industry

(nerve agent antidote)

Fuel Cells, Film Antennas Auto Industry

Thought Control Video Game Industry

Data Links Inflight Entertainment, Banking Industries

Autonomy (Computers) PC and Video Game Industries

The aviation industry is not the driver for UA-relevant technologies

UA Customer ForecastUA Customer Forecast

… but even if the technology becomes available, unmanned aviation will need an economic reason to grow.

What will the customer base for unmanned aviation look like in 2025 or 2050?- How many?- When?- Why?

Five markets:- Airlines and Cargo Carriers (Parts 121 and 135)- General and Business Aviation (Part 91)- Military

Trend #1: IFR Traffic ForecastTrend #1: IFR Traffic Forecast

Based on FY2000 FAA Forecast for FY2025

2000

Cargo, 15

Gen Av, 12

Airlines, 55

Military, 10

Business, 8

2025

Gen Av, 11

Cargo, 27Airlines,

52

Business, 5

Military, 5

2050

Airlines, 43

Cargo, 43

Business, 3

Military, 2

Gen Av, 9

FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Nu

mb

er o

f IF

R U

A F

ield

ed

Per

cen

t o

f A

ll M

ilita

ry A

ircr

aft

(16,

050)

= 11.5% Growth/Decade

80190

630

1510

3.9%

9.4%

23%

50%

1.2%

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Trend #2: Military UA Growth Trend

Trend #3: Crew Size on AirlinersTrend #3: Crew Size on Airliners

Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners

B-314 Clipper

L040 Constellation

B-707

B-727

B-757

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025

Year of Introduction

Cre

w S

ize

- Flight Mechanics

- Radio Operators

- Flight Engineers

- Navigators

- Pilots by 2020?

- Third Pilots

FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Per

cen

t o

f A

ircr

aft

in F

leet

3.9%

9.4%

23%

50%

1.2%

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.1)

Cargo

Airlines

Gen Av/Biz

33%

23%

18%

Military

11.5% Growth/Decade

FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Per

cen

t o

f A

ircr

aft

in F

leet

3.9%

9.4%

23%

50%

1.2%

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.2)

Cargo

Airlines

Gen Av/Biz

Military33%

25%

17% Growth/Decade

Positive Influences on UA GrowthPositive Influences on UA Growth

Military - UA program trends- Pathfinding efforts (S&A, standards)

Cargo Airlines - Long term drive to reduce crew size- Long, dull, no-pax missions into

Class C airport hubs- Expressions of interest by airlines

General Aviation - NASA Personal Air Vehicle Exploration (PAVE)--2009 demo

- FAA expectation of ‘mini-jets”- Flashover point in commute distance

UA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENTUA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENT

2000 2025 2050 Rationale

Military 0.5% x 10%=

0.05%

23% x 5%=

1.2%

50% x 2%=

1%

2000-2015 DoD programming

Cargo 0% x 15%=

0%

10% x 27%=

2.7%

50% x 43%=

22%

Crew size trend;

Fedex interest

Airlines 0% x 55%=

0%

0% x 52%=

0%

25% x 43%=

11%

Fallout from Cargo

Gen Aviation 0% x 12%=

0%

0% x 11%=

0%

33% x 9%=

3%

NASA PAVE program matures;

Commuter interest

Business 0% x 8%=

0%

0% x 5%=

0%

33% x 3%=

1%

Fallout from NASA PAVE

Total %

Unmanned 0.05% 3.9% 38%

IFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UAIFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UA

Based on FAA Forecast for FY2025

Unmanned percentages of IFR traffic: 0.05% 3.9% 38%

2000

Cargo, 15

Gen Av, 12

Airlines, 55

Military, 10

Business, 8

2050

Airlines, 43

Cargo, 43

Business, 3

Military, 2

Gen Av, 9

2025

Gen Av, 11

Cargo, 27Airlines,

52

Business, 5

Military, 5

Summary: Technology TrendsSummary: Technology Trends

Away from hydraulics and combustion– Toward all-electric

Away from connected, moving parts– Toward a single morphing part

Away from data acquisition and relay (data link intensive)– Toward data information knowledge action

(processor intensive)

Away from inorganic-based technologies– Toward bio-engineered components

Away from manned aircraft debuting the latest aviation technologies– Toward unmanned aircraft assuming this role

ConclusionsConclusions

A number of highly innovative technologies applicable to UA will be emerging over the next 25 years

The aviation market will not be driving these technologies

Cargo airlines are the “great commercial hope” for UA

Christensen, Clayton. The Innovator’s Dilema. Harper Collins, 1997.

FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, FY2015, 2020 and 2025.

Infinity Point web magazine, www.infinitypoint.com

Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the

21st Century. Anchor Books, 1997

Moravic, Hans. Robot. Cambridge Press, 1999.

OSD Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005-2030.

Further ReadingFurther Reading

Nuke Newcome

703-684-2900

www.sra.com

www.uavforum.com

Nuke Newcome

703-684-2900

www.sra.com

www.uavforum.com

NASA Morphing VideoNASA Morphing Video

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Future of ComputingFuture of Computing

1 PHz

100 THz

10 THz

100 GHz

10 GHz

1 GHz

1 THz

Pro

cess

or

Sp

ee

d

Cal

cula

tions

/Sec

ond

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Solid State Transition Moletronics

Silicon

Indium Phosphide

0.1 micron limit to solid state devices

Human Brain

Platform RequirementsPlatform Requirements