nuclear power on top of european energy agenda, despite embargoes
DESCRIPTION
The aftermath of Fukushima has raised two key questions in Europe. One: is nuclear power with its attendant waste and safety issues worth having? And, two: can Europe, in the absence of nuclear power generation, reduce its dependency on oil and gas imports and meet its climate targets? New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (http://www.energy.frost.com), European Nuclear Power Sector, finds that nuclear energy is the answer to meeting aggressive EU targets on carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuels. Despite the environmental risks, nuclear energy shows potential to reduce emissions and dependence on fossil fuels, and therefore, will be a major contributor to the European energy mix in 2020.TRANSCRIPT
European Nuclear Power Sector - Trends and
Opportunities
Despite Fukushima, Nuclear will Play an Active Role in Europe’s Energy
Mix
M7D5-14
October 2012
2 M7D5-14
Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 3
Market Overview 8
Nuclear Electricity Production by Individual Country 11
Consequence of Fukushima 53
Geographical Analysis 59
• Country Deep Dive, Finland 60
• Country Deep Dive, France 66
• Country Deep Dive, Germany 74
• Country Deep Dive, Poland 82
• Country Deep Dive, United Kingdom 88
Levelised Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) and Cost Comparison 97
Equipment Specifics 103
Appendix 166
About Frost & Sullivan 177
M7D5-14 3
Executive Summary
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Introduction
The number of nuclear new build projects, despite Fukushima, is still higher now than across the last
two decades – although Asia is leading in numbers, the US has approved its first new build since
1970, and the UK, France, Finland and Poland are about to build or are building new units .
The increasing price of oil and the weather dependence of renewables still makes nuclear an
attractive option for low carbon electricity at a levelised electricity cost competitive with fossil fuels
Nuclear plant life extensions represent a bigger market across the next 20 years, than new build for
the current nuclear supply chain
The wind levelised cost of electricity for onshore applications is now in line with nuclear’s levelised
cost of electricity across many wind parks in Europe
Although uranium price levels are increasing, the availability of nuclear fuel is not a long term issue
1
2
3
4
5
The nuclear sector awoke across the early 2000s with the steadily increasing price of oil which peaked in
July 2008. The nuclear renaissance, as it was termed, gained momentum until the Fukushima incident
which dissuaded borderline countries from entering or maintaining nuclear capacity. Nevertheless, the oil
price is only going to increase in the long term, and with it the relative cost of producing electricity with a
high share of fossil-fuelled plants. With renewables becoming competitive, but not yet able to provide the
vast amount of electricity needed to sustain global growth, nuclear remains one of the cleanest and more
reliable power sources available. Below are some of the key takeaways from the research:
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Introduction (continued)
Countries/Regions Planning for Nuclear Power
Countries/Regions Using Nuclear Power
The United States
Units = 24
Europe
Units = 30
Russia & CIS
Units = 73
India
Units = 23
China
Units = 63
Asia (Other)
Units = 33
Middle East
Units = 5
6 14
4
Nuclear Power Plants Under Construction
Nuclear Power Plants Planned
Nuclear Power Plants Proposed
6 10
14
1 0
4
10 18
45
6 10
7
10 16
7
33 9
21
Source: IAEA PRIS and Frost &
Sullivan Analysis
Nuclear Power Sector: Status of Nuclear Plants by Country, Global, 2011
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Introduction (continued)
198 plants for major
maintenance
Nuclear Power Sector: Distribution of Reactors By Age, Global, 2011
Source: IAEA and Frost & Sullivan Analysis
7
5
2 3
2
4 5
2
6
3
6
4 4 3
6
4 5
9
6
4
10 11
14
21
24
32 33
20
18
22
19
6
11
13 13
11
20
13
10
12
4
7
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 45
Nu
mb
er
of
Un
its
Age of Units (Years)
Distribution of Global Reactors by Age
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Worldwide average
plant life is 27 years,
and the average design
life is 43 years
Another method to
alleviate demand is to
increase plant load
factors. However,
these are already at
89% globally and are
predicted to decrease
rather than increase
due to the increasing
age of plants, as well
as increasing the
number of PSRs*
Life extensions (Nuplex) are
given and approved by the local
nuclear assessor, and can extend
the design life by 10 years or
more
These can cover some of the
need for extra GW shown in the
forecast but due to
refurbishment, they also will
constrain some of the supply
chain
Every plant goes for
planned maintenance
every 2 years for 30
days and every 5
years for 30-60 days.
These plants up for life
extension
maintenance and
license represent 132
GW
Nuclear Power Sector: Distribution of Reactors By Age - Explanation
Introduction (continued)
* NuPLEx = Nuclear Plant Life Extension, *PSR = Periodic Safety Review Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
M7D5-14 8
Market Overview
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Market Overview (continued)
940
517
105
24
786
934
937
910
327
392
119 647
124
408
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2010 2020
Po
wer
Gen
era
tio
n in
TW
H
Year
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other Renewables
3,338 TWh
3,832 TWh
Lithuania 1%
Hungary 2% Romania
1% Finland
3% Czech
Republic 3%
Belgium 5%
Sweden 7%
Spain 7%
UK 7%
France 48%
Germany 16%
Nuclear Power Sector: Per cent of Electricity Produced Using Nuclear Energy by Country, Europe,
2010
Nuclear Power Sector: Power Generation by Fuel
Type, Europe, 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis Note: Other Renewables may include Solar, Biomass, Geothermal , Wave, Tidal etc.
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Germany will have the biggest gap in generation following the announced shut down of its nuclear fleet by
2022. The country’s recent energy strategy is to increase generation from renewable sources from 17 per cent to
25 per cent and reduce carbon emissions by 40 per cent by 2020.
Anti - nuclear moves were announced by Switzerland and Italy. Switzerland plans to phase out its five ageing
nuclear plants between 2019 and 2034.
Italy which was in plans of new nuclear build, post Fukushima disaster, derailed its potential plans due to lack
of public support.
Belgium’s political parties have reached a conditional agreement to phase out nuclear power in a two-step
phase out approach, by closing its oldest reactors by 2015 and the remainder by 2025.
France, Finland, UK and Sweden have reaffirmed their commitment to nuclear power. Central and Eastern
European countries such as Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic would push ahead with new units,
following increased safety assessments.
Region Committed to Nuclear Development Region Opting for Nuclear Phase Out Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Market Overview (continued)