nuclear power for remote alaska locations
DESCRIPTION
Nuclear Power for Remote Alaska Locations. AAEP Lunch 19 October 2005 Steve Colt UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research. Overview. Context Galena study framework Galena results Extension to other communities Extension to mine sites Economic considerations going forward. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Nuclear Power forNuclear Power forRemote Alaska LocationsRemote Alaska Locations
AAEP Lunch 19 October 2005Steve Colt
UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research
OverviewOverview
• Context• Galena study framework• Galena results• Extension to other communities• Extension to mine sites• Economic considerations going
forward
Evolution of Conversion DevicesEvolution of Conversion Devices
Source: Smil 1994
Changing Mix of U.S.Changing Mix of U.S. Primary Energy “Sources” Primary Energy “Sources”
Circa 1992
Turning to Alaska—Turning to Alaska—
Primary Energy Input per Alaskan
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Alaska GasNetwork
PCEplaces
Other
Bar
rels
of
Oil
per
Yea
r
Wood and all other
Other petroleum
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Diesel
Hydro
Coal
Natural Gas
Primary energy consumption per Primary energy consumption per AlaskanAlaskan
barrels oil per person per yearbarrels oil per person per year
Final Energy Consumption per Alaskan
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Alaska GasNetwork
PCEplaces
Other
Bar
rels
of
Oil
per
Yea
r Jet air transportation
Other transportation
Industrial
Oil/propane/wood direct
Natural gas direct
generation losses
Electricity
Final energy consumption per Final energy consumption per AlaskanAlaskan
barrels oil per person per yearbarrels oil per person per year
Electricity Cost per kWhElectricity Cost per kWh
10
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
cents
per
kW
h
Anchorage PCE Places
Potential Requirements of Large Potential Requirements of Large MineMine
• Donlin Creek Example:60 MW average load60 MW average load
= 526 million kWh per yr= 526 million kWh per yr
= 35 million gallons of diesel = 35 million gallons of diesel @15kWh/gal@15kWh/gal
= 700,000 drums = 700,000 drums
• Plus rolling stock energy needs……
Galena Electric Power StudyGalena Electric Power Study• Requested by City of Galena• Funded by DOE Arctic Energy Office• Consider all reasonable options for
meeting electric power needs – utility perspective
• Multidisciplinary study team:– Bob Chaney, SAICBob Chaney, SAIC– Ron Johnson, Richard Weiss, UAF engineeringRon Johnson, Richard Weiss, UAF engineering– Steve Colt, UAA/ISER, economicsSteve Colt, UAA/ISER, economics– Greg White, INEEL, environmental Greg White, INEEL, environmental
/permitting/permitting
Galena Study FrameworkGalena Study Framework
• Compare total system cost to City over 30 yrs @ 4% real discount rate
• Express results as $/kWh cost of service• Focus on electric utility needs:
– 1.8 MW peak1.8 MW peak– 11,000 MWh per yr11,000 MWh per yr
• Consider other uses of power:source of load type units 2010Utility electricity firm MWh 11,002 Existing city heating loop firm MWh 2,344 Residential space heating firm MWh 7,413 Greenhouse firm MWh 570 Air station heat non-firm MWh-equiv 8,464 Total energy requirements at power plant MWh 29,794
current cost of diesel power = 26 cents per kWh
Fuel
variable genFixed gen
Distribution
Admin
generation = 18 cents/kWh
distribution & admin = 8 cents/kWh
Galena: Current SituationGalena: Current Situation
Galena Assumptions: DieselGalena Assumptions: Diesel
• Efficiency 14 kWh/gal (15 for new)• Diesel Price:
– Low = $1.50 + 0% real/yrLow = $1.50 + 0% real/yr– High = $2.15 + 2% real/yrHigh = $2.15 + 2% real/yr– Delivery to homes: add $.75/galDelivery to homes: add $.75/gal
• Diesel Capital: $400/ kW
Galena Assumptions: CoalGalena Assumptions: Coalselected low high
units value (yr 1) value valueCoal plant capital cost $/kW 3,000 Coal plant availability 95%Coal plant efficiency (electric output/coal input) 40% 30% 40%
Coal or nuclear "heat to electric" efficiency 50%Coal fuel
Energy content M Btu/ton 20 Delivered price of coal $/ton 100 100 125 Ash disposal cost $/ton 20
Nonfuel coal O&MCoal labor people 6cost per operator $/yr 53,200variable O&M and consummables $/kWh 0.01
Fuel subassemblies (18 SAs)
Reflectors are moving upward and surrounding the core slowly(*) in order to compensate the reactivity loss during 30 years burn-up. If an accident occurred, reflector would fall down to make core subcritical.
(*) average velocity: 1mm/week approximately
Center SA: Ultimate shutdown rod (neutron absorber as back up)
44S Reactor CoreS Reactor Core
Fuel material: U-Zr (metallic)
Coolant material: sodium
Core lifetime: 30 years
Core height: 2.5 m (50MWe)
2.0m (10MWe)
Core diameter: 1.20m (50MWe)
0.87m (10MWe)Reactivity temperature coefficient: negative
Galena Assumptions: NuclearGalena Assumptions: Nuclear
selected low highunits value (yr 1) value value
Nuclear capacity MW 10.0 Nuclear capital cost $ 0
Nuclear security staff people 34 4 34Nuclear operator staff people 8 Nuclear availability 95%
Nuclear annual supplies and expenses $/yr 500,000
Galena Results: DieselGalena Results: Diesel
Diesel System: Electric Rates
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45
real
yea
r 20
04 $
per
kW
h
$2.15/gal, +2%/yr
$1.50/gal, flat
Galena Results: NuclearGalena Results: Nuclear
Nuclear system: Average Electric Rates
-
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
real
yea
r 20
04 $
per
kW
h
42 staff, $1.50/gal flat diesel
12 staff, $2.15/gal + 2%/yrdiesel
Galena Results: Avoided CO2Galena Results: Avoided CO2Avoided diesel fuel:
733,000 gallons (utility electricity)733,000 gallons (utility electricity)++ 220,000 gallons (residential heating)220,000 gallons (residential heating)++ 471,000 gallons (air station heating)471,000 gallons (air station heating)= 1.4 million gallons per yr (in 2010)= 1.4 million gallons per yr (in 2010)X 10 kg CO2/gallonX 10 kg CO2/gallon
= 14,245 tons CO2/yr= 14,245 tons CO2/yr@ $9.33/ton (current EU spot price)@ $9.33/ton (current EU spot price)= $133,000 /yr= $133,000 /yr= 9 cents per gallon= 9 cents per gallon
Daily Loads and Nuclear Capacity - year 2039
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
101
111
121
131
141
151
161
171
181
191
201
211
221
231
241
251
261
271
281
291
301
311
321
331
341
351
361
day of year
meg
awat
ts
greenhouse
air station heat
home heat
existing dist. heat
utility electricity
nuclear capacity
nuclear capacity
Excess Power from 10 MW Excess Power from 10 MW outputoutput
Hydrogen – Basic ConsiderationsHydrogen – Basic Considerations
• H2 is energy carrier, not energy source• Density: Liquid - 0.071kg/l or 0.59 lb/gal
– about the same as styrofoam• Energy Content: 30,000 BTU/gal – 1/5
that of diesel• Best form of storage appears to be as a
liquid. Others under development include hydrates and salts.
Hydrogen: Cost to ProduceHydrogen: Cost to Produce• Size: 1 MW(e) input; 404,000 gal out• Capital:
H2 generator: H2 generator: $1.5 million$1.5 million
H2 liquefier:H2 liquefier: $2.0 million$2.0 million
Storage tanks:Storage tanks: $0.95 million$0.95 million
N liquefier:N liquefier: $0.7 million$0.7 million
Filling Stn, other:Filling Stn, other: $1.0 million$1.0 million
• Total Capital:$6.2 million• Total O&M: $62,000+ per yr
Hydrogen: Cost to TransportHydrogen: Cost to Transport
• 500,000 gal H2 = 29 barge trips with one 17,000 gal cryogenic tank@$7,800 per trip@$7,800 per trip
= $447,000= $447,000
= $0.92/gal= $0.92/gal
• ~=$4.00 per gallon of diesel on a Btu basis.
Capital Power Cost H2 Production Cost
Target Cost to beat diesel
$6.2 million
-0- $46/MBTU $15-30 / MBTU
-0- 1.5 cents/kWh $17/MBTU $15-30 / MBTU
Galena: Hydrogen EnterpriseGalena: Hydrogen Enterprise•To serve city, school, and military To serve city, school, and military vehiclesvehicles
•Replace 90,000 gal gasoline with 400,000 Replace 90,000 gal gasoline with 400,000 gal liquid H2gal liquid H2
Simple Extension I: BethelSimple Extension I: Bethel
• Load:– 41.2 MWh + 1%/yr41.2 MWh + 1%/yr– 6.7 MW peak6.7 MW peak
• Nuclear Labor:– 8 operators + 20 security8 operators + 20 security
• Misc O&M:– $2 million (viz $3.5 million Toshiba 50 $2 million (viz $3.5 million Toshiba 50
MW)MW)
Daily Loads and Nuclear Capacity - year 2039
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1
11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
101
111
121
131
141
151
161
171
181
191
201
211
221
231
241
251
261
271
281
291
301
311
321
331
341
351
361
day of year
meg
awat
ts
nuclear capacity
Nuclear replaces electricity,Nuclear replaces electricity,not heatnot heat
Simple Extension I: ResultsSimple Extension I: Results
• NPV busbar cost excluding nuclear capital:– Diesel: $113 - $181 million depending on Diesel: $113 - $181 million depending on
fuel pricefuel price– Nuclear: $69 millionNuclear: $69 million
• Therefore, breakeven nuclear capital cost for 10 MW is $43 million - $112 million– (compare to Toshiba est. $125 million for (compare to Toshiba est. $125 million for
50 MW)50 MW)
Simple Extension II: Donlin Simple Extension II: Donlin CreekCreek
• Load:– 50+ MW at all times50+ MW at all times– 438,300 MWh per yr (!) 438,300 MWh per yr (!)
• Nuclear Labor:– 8 operators + 20 security8 operators + 20 security– 25% remote site wage premium25% remote site wage premium
• Misc O&M:– $3.5 million (= Toshiba 50 MW estimate)$3.5 million (= Toshiba 50 MW estimate)
• Diesel cost: $1.50 and flat
Results: DonlinResults: Donlin
Present value of busbar costs excluding nuclear capital
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
Diesel Nuclear
Bil
lio
ns Other
Fuel
Looking AheadLooking Ahead
• Economics of nuclear depend on:– Energy RequirementsEnergy Requirements– Load shape (flat is best!)Load shape (flat is best!)
• Economics of transmission:– Very poor if serving small placesVery poor if serving small places– Excellent if serving a large loadExcellent if serving a large load– Reliability concerns are real,Reliability concerns are real,– But, 75+% of total diesel cost is But, 75+% of total diesel cost is
FUEL…FUEL…
Looking Ahead…..Looking Ahead…..
• On-site fabrication required for off-river sites
• Waste management• Security / staffing• NRC process is just beginningNRC process is just beginning
Further InformationFurther Information
• Galena Electric Power: a Situational Analysis. available at
http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/Galena_power_final.pdf • Alaska Electric Power Statistics (with Alaska Energy Balance) 1960-
2001 by Scott Goldsmith, November 2003. http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/akelectricpowerfinal.pdf
• BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2004. www.bp.com/worldenergy
• Hansen, James. Defusing the Global Time Bomb. Scientific American, February 2004. Pp. 68-77.
• Smil, Vaclav. 1994 Energy in World History. Westview.• Smil, Vaclav. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads. MIT Press.